bso一下三个月前写的CMG# Stock
G*e
1 楼
k*n
2 楼
Wow,
Big cow!!!
Big cow!!!
T*C
3 楼
为啥我看不到
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【在 k********n 的大作中提到】
: Wow,
: Big cow!!!
the page you are trying to reach is no longer available.
Please select one of the options above
【在 k********n 的大作中提到】
: Wow,
: Big cow!!!
a*g
4 楼
牛!
【在 G****e 的大作中提到】
: 时间不算完美，但是够近了。
: http://seekingalpha.com/article/468571-chipotle-mexican-grill-s
【在 G****e 的大作中提到】
: 时间不算完美，但是够近了。
: http://seekingalpha.com/article/468571-chipotle-mexican-grill-s
k*n
5 楼
SeekingAlpha
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) has been a rising star in the stock market over
the past a few years. The stock took a hit during the 2008 financial crisis
but promptly recovered. By now, it has gone up almost ten fold over the
past three years. As of this writing, the market value of Chipotle Mexican
Grill stands at $13.10 billion. I believe this company is outrageously
overvalued. It is one of the best short opportunities in the market--
possibly better than Netflix (NFLX) in 2011. In this article, I shall assess
Chipotle's value using two methods, both of which reach the same conclusion
(Click to enlarge)
Method 1: Value per restaurant
Let's do a simple math. With 1,230 restaurants by the end of 2011, the
market values Chipotle's restaurants at over $10 million each! This method
may appear a little crude, but it becomes obvious when we examine some other
restaurant companies. McDonald's (MCD) restaurants are about $3 million
each. Darden Restaurants' (DRI) Olive Garden and Red Lobster are about $2.5
million each. If we use a fairly standard 10x price/earnings (P/E) ratio in
the restaurant business, it means in order to justify a $10 million
restaurant value, each Chipotle restaurant must bring in $1 million annual
profits! Unless Chipotle is run by the United States Mint, this is simply
impossible. In reality, Chipotle's current number is less than one-third of
that.
One might argue that Chipotle is a growing company, and it should be richly
valued. However, even at its current growing speed (Chipotle plans to open
160 restaurants in 2012), it will take almost eight years for Chipotle to
double its restaurant count. At the current market value, each Chipotle's
restaurant would still be worth $5 million with twice as many restaurants--
40% more valuable than a McDonald's restaurant. The comparison may not even
be fair for McDonald's, which operates very fast and serves many customers
per unit time. With Chipotle's customized food, its operation is fairly slow
(like Subway Restaurants). The operating process at Chipotle is not
expected to become much more efficient.
Method 2: Cash flow
Chipotle's cash flow may have fooled many investors focusing on operating
cash flow (OCF) growth for the company. Chipotle's OCF growth was 42% from
2010 to 2011, but its P/E ratio is more than 60. Using the rule of thumb P/E
ratio for growth companies where percentage growth = P/E ratio, this is a
bit of an outrageous valuation. But there is more. In 2011 Chipotle had a
large amount of changes in liabilities ($96,047,000) in its cash flow, which
artificially exaggerated Chipotle's OCF in that year. The table below
presents the adjusted OCF by deducting changes in liabilities from Chipotle'
s OCF (all numbers in thousands).
OCF
Chg
Changes in liabilities
Adjusted OCF
Chg
Operating Income
Chg
2009
260,673
38,160
222,513
203,705
2010
289,191
11%
13,361
275,830
24%
287,831
41%
2011
411,096
42%
96,047
315,049
14%
350,562
22%
It turns out, in 2011, Chipotle was growing somewhere between 14% and 22% in
operating income/cash flow. This is really not that impressive for a growth
company. Again using the rule of thumb P/E ratio for growth companies,
Chipotle should receive a P/E ratio of 20--maybe 25 to be generous--and
Chipotle's stock price by this measure should be $162.
To summarize, I expect Chipotle's stock price to drop at least 50% from here
. If the margin of its operations goes down--there's a good chance for this
to happen since the current margin seems too good to be true for the
restaurant business in general and will attract competitors--it can easily
drop to the $100 level.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) has been a rising star in the stock market over
the past a few years. The stock took a hit during the 2008 financial crisis
but promptly recovered. By now, it has gone up almost ten fold over the
past three years. As of this writing, the market value of Chipotle Mexican
Grill stands at $13.10 billion. I believe this company is outrageously
overvalued. It is one of the best short opportunities in the market--
possibly better than Netflix (NFLX) in 2011. In this article, I shall assess
Chipotle's value using two methods, both of which reach the same conclusion
(Click to enlarge)
Method 1: Value per restaurant
Let's do a simple math. With 1,230 restaurants by the end of 2011, the
market values Chipotle's restaurants at over $10 million each! This method
may appear a little crude, but it becomes obvious when we examine some other
restaurant companies. McDonald's (MCD) restaurants are about $3 million
each. Darden Restaurants' (DRI) Olive Garden and Red Lobster are about $2.5
million each. If we use a fairly standard 10x price/earnings (P/E) ratio in
the restaurant business, it means in order to justify a $10 million
restaurant value, each Chipotle restaurant must bring in $1 million annual
profits! Unless Chipotle is run by the United States Mint, this is simply
impossible. In reality, Chipotle's current number is less than one-third of
that.
One might argue that Chipotle is a growing company, and it should be richly
valued. However, even at its current growing speed (Chipotle plans to open
160 restaurants in 2012), it will take almost eight years for Chipotle to
double its restaurant count. At the current market value, each Chipotle's
restaurant would still be worth $5 million with twice as many restaurants--
40% more valuable than a McDonald's restaurant. The comparison may not even
be fair for McDonald's, which operates very fast and serves many customers
per unit time. With Chipotle's customized food, its operation is fairly slow
(like Subway Restaurants). The operating process at Chipotle is not
expected to become much more efficient.
Method 2: Cash flow
Chipotle's cash flow may have fooled many investors focusing on operating
cash flow (OCF) growth for the company. Chipotle's OCF growth was 42% from
2010 to 2011, but its P/E ratio is more than 60. Using the rule of thumb P/E
ratio for growth companies where percentage growth = P/E ratio, this is a
bit of an outrageous valuation. But there is more. In 2011 Chipotle had a
large amount of changes in liabilities ($96,047,000) in its cash flow, which
artificially exaggerated Chipotle's OCF in that year. The table below
presents the adjusted OCF by deducting changes in liabilities from Chipotle'
s OCF (all numbers in thousands).
OCF
Chg
Changes in liabilities
Adjusted OCF
Chg
Operating Income
Chg
2009
260,673
38,160
222,513
203,705
2010
289,191
11%
13,361
275,830
24%
287,831
41%
2011
411,096
42%
96,047
315,049
14%
350,562
22%
It turns out, in 2011, Chipotle was growing somewhere between 14% and 22% in
operating income/cash flow. This is really not that impressive for a growth
company. Again using the rule of thumb P/E ratio for growth companies,
Chipotle should receive a P/E ratio of 20--maybe 25 to be generous--and
Chipotle's stock price by this measure should be $162.
To summarize, I expect Chipotle's stock price to drop at least 50% from here
. If the margin of its operations goes down--there's a good chance for this
to happen since the current margin seems too good to be true for the
restaurant business in general and will attract competitors--it can easily
drop to the $100 level.
T*C
6 楼
赞，是啥id，我要去follow
over
crisis
assess
conclusion
【在 k********n 的大作中提到】
: SeekingAlpha
: Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) has been a rising star in the stock market over
: the past a few years. The stock took a hit during the 2008 financial crisis
: but promptly recovered. By now, it has gone up almost ten fold over the
: past three years. As of this writing, the market value of Chipotle Mexican
: Grill stands at $13.10 billion. I believe this company is outrageously
: overvalued. It is one of the best short opportunities in the market--
: possibly better than Netflix (NFLX) in 2011. In this article, I shall assess
: Chipotle's value using two methods, both of which reach the same conclusion
: (Click to enlarge)
over
crisis
assess
conclusion
【在 k********n 的大作中提到】
: SeekingAlpha
: Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) has been a rising star in the stock market over
: the past a few years. The stock took a hit during the 2008 financial crisis
: but promptly recovered. By now, it has gone up almost ten fold over the
: past three years. As of this writing, the market value of Chipotle Mexican
: Grill stands at $13.10 billion. I believe this company is outrageously
: overvalued. It is one of the best short opportunities in the market--
: possibly better than Netflix (NFLX) in 2011. In this article, I shall assess
: Chipotle's value using two methods, both of which reach the same conclusion
: (Click to enlarge)
k*n
7 楼
就是楼主啊
Gutong
【在 T*C 的大作中提到】
: 赞，是啥id，我要去follow
:
: over
: crisis
: assess
: conclusion
S*t
8 楼
谢谢分享。太专业了，都看不懂。
：-（
【在 G****e 的大作中提到】
: 时间不算完美，但是够近了。
: http://seekingalpha.com/article/468571-chipotle-mexican-grill-s
：-（
【在 G****e 的大作中提到】
: 时间不算完美，但是够近了。
: http://seekingalpha.com/article/468571-chipotle-mexican-grill-s
R*r
9 楼
good analysis. The judgement day finally comes.
【在 G****e 的大作中提到】
: 时间不算完美，但是够近了。
: http://seekingalpha.com/article/468571-chipotle-mexican-grill-s
【在 G****e 的大作中提到】
: 时间不算完美，但是够近了。
: http://seekingalpha.com/article/468571-chipotle-mexican-grill-s
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