稍微谈一下黄金和GLD - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

国际科技财经博客移民网络热点娱乐民生时事公众号

Redian新闻

>未名空间

>Stock

稍微谈一下黄金和GLD

稍微谈一下黄金和GLD# Stock

l*o2012-09-27 07:09

1 楼

1. 长期看牛.这个是全球信用货币放水和长期经济动荡的前景决定的，神仙也改变不了。
2. 短期阻力位：GLD 175是连试三次的心理关口，我认为突破就在眼前，但万一突破不
了就要再震荡一小段。 185这个前期高点是另一个心理关口，一旦突破，大概大家想找
2000以下的黄金就比较难了。
3. 突破175后，一切回调都是买进的时机。

j*a2012-09-27 07:09

2 楼

等突破，买入

l*o2012-09-27 07:09

3 楼

回答朋友的问题，在这里做个记录，供参考：
上个月黄金上涨了6%左右。期间人们通过ETF大概买入了75吨。交易额大致在4.5个
billion上下。美国现在每个月QE 40 billion，所以如果有1/10流入黄金市场，就能支
撑这种买入幅度。当然1/10大概太高估了，可是因为世界性的量化宽松，美国的印钞机
只是全球白热的印钞机群的一部分。因此黄金的突破在资金面不会有任何问题。心理面
，08年以来信用货币形象的崩溃是用一代人的时间也难以修复的（年纪大一点的朋友
可以回忆一下十年前美元在人们心目中的地位），即使股票和房地产市场回稳，黄金在
投资组合中所占的份额也不会迅速下降。再加上央行储备因素，中国印度因素作为背景
，我认为可以坦然地long黄金，如果你是中长期投资者的话。
短期看，1800左右的压力太大，可以考虑突破后再买。大体是GLD 175的位置。如果突
破不了（我认为可能不是很大），大概还要回调一段，但回调幅度应该不大。如果回调
，我会加量买入。

了。

【在 l***o 的大作中提到】

: 1. 长期看牛.这个是全球信用货币放水和长期经济动荡的前景决定的，神仙也改变不了。
: 2. 短期阻力位：GLD 175是连试三次的心理关口，我认为突破就在眼前，但万一突破不
: 了就要再震荡一小段。 185这个前期高点是另一个心理关口，一旦突破，大概大家想找
: 2000以下的黄金就比较难了。
: 3. 突破175后，一切回调都是买进的时机。

c*e2012-09-27 07:09

4 楼

Stocks and bonds will be virtually worthless
Stocks and bonds will be virtually worthless and gold and hard assets will
be the only investments worth having unless the U.S. tames its addiction to
debt and deficits, Pimco's Bill Gross said Tuesday.
Bill Gross PIMCO
Tim Boyle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
In his widely followed monthly Pimco investor newsletter, the CEO of the
company that runs the largest bond fund in the world paints a stark picture
of the domestic financial picture.
He said the nation has lost the trust of financial entities including the
Congressional Budget Office, International Monetary Fund and the Bank of
International Settlements, each of which lately has published critiques of
international finance.
"When all of them speak, we should listen and in the latest year they’re
all speaking in unison," Gross wrote. "What they’re saying is that when it
comes to debt and to the prospects for future debt, the U.S. is no 'clean
dirty shirt,'" the latter reference a term Pimco has used to describe the
nation's standing compared to other debt-plagued nations.
"The U.S., in fact, is a serial offender, an addict whose habit extends
beyond weed or cocaine and who frequently pleasures itself with budgetary
crystal meth. Uncle Sam’s habit, say these respected agencies, will be a
hard (and dangerous) one to break."
Washington must close both the budget deficit, which entails spending and
revenue during the course of a given year, as well as a "fiscal gap," which
describes the amount that will be needed to pay for social programs such as
Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid that have unfunded liabilities of
tens of trillions of dollars, Gross said.
The CBO, BIS and IMF have concluded that the U.S. balance sheet "is in
flames and that its fire department is apparently asleep at the station
house," he added.
The current budget deficit is running at more than $1.2 trillion while the
total national debt is more than $16 trillion and there is a fiscal gap of
11 percent of gross domestic product, which is currently $15.6 trillion.
Gross said Washington lawmakers need to find spending cuts and tax increases
of $1.6 trillion a year to close to fiscal gap. Eliminating the so-called
Bush tax cuts, enacted across the board during the George W. Bush
administration and a favorite target of Democratic critics, would raise only
$200 billion of that total, he said.
"Unless we begin to close this gap, then the inevitable result will be that
our debt/GDP ratio will continue to rise, the Fed would print money to pay
for the deficiency, inflation would follow and the dollar would inevitably
decline," Gross wrote. "Bonds would be burned to a crisp and stocks would
certainly be singed; only gold and real assets would thrive within the 'Ring
of Fire,'" another Gross term for U.S. economic conditions.
Should that happen, the results both for investors and the U.S. economy
would be catastrophic, he concluded.
"If the fiscal gap isn’t closed even ever so gradually over the next few
years, then rating services, dollar reserve holding nations and bond
managers embarrassed into being reborn as vigilantes may together force a
resolution that ends in tears," Gross said. "It would be a scenario for the
storybooks, that’s for sure, but one which in this instance, investors
would want to forget. The damage would likely be beyond repair."

了。

【在 l***o 的大作中提到】

n*n2012-09-27 07:09

5 楼

分析得不错。
请问gld $175如何算突破？ Volume达到多少？

【在 l***o 的大作中提到】

: 回答朋友的问题，在这里做个记录，供参考：
: 上个月黄金上涨了6%左右。期间人们通过ETF大概买入了75吨。交易额大致在4.5个
: billion上下。美国现在每个月QE 40 billion，所以如果有1/10流入黄金市场，就能支
: 撑这种买入幅度。当然1/10大概太高估了，可是因为世界性的量化宽松，美国的印钞机
: 只是全球白热的印钞机群的一部分。因此黄金的突破在资金面不会有任何问题。心理面
: ，08年以来信用货币形象的崩溃是用一代人的时间也难以修复的（年纪大一点的朋友
: 可以回忆一下十年前美元在人们心目中的地位），即使股票和房地产市场回稳，黄金在
: 投资组合中所占的份额也不会迅速下降。再加上央行储备因素，中国印度因素作为背景
: ，我认为可以坦然地long黄金，如果你是中长期投资者的话。
: 短期看，1800左右的压力太大，可以考虑突破后再买。大体是GLD 175的位置。如果突