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Prepare for Bubble 2.0 bust coming.

Prepare for Bubble 2.0 bust coming.# Stock

p*r2012-10-09 07:10

1 楼

Stocks like AMZN, CRM, LNKD are traded at price with PE well above 100. This
was the trading pattern in year 1999-2000. Many dot com stocks were bubble
like this, and eventually got busted in 2011.
The competition in the cloud computing and digital products(music, video and
e-books) become tougher and tougher. They will go back to the reasonable
valuation.

g*e2012-10-09 07:10

2 楼

when?

b*p2012-10-09 07:10

3 楼

how?

u*n2012-10-09 07:10

4 楼

Earlier than next spring, possibly at the beginning of 2013.

p*r2012-10-09 07:10

5 楼

I think AMZN will go below $200 at the end of this year or early next year(
before March/April) simply because much more competition in its all core
business. Start building some short position now. You will
make money in few months.
Here is the list of areas AMZN faces tougher competition .
* Retail: Sales tax effect is bigger than many expect. Walmart, and
BustBuy will start doing something to protect their business.
* More companies are getting into cloud computing business. Oracle,
HP, and IBM, plus original already in the arena, such as Google
and Apple and many smaller ones.
* Selling tablet at or below the cost and getting its sales for its
digital products and retail business model is a wishful dream.
People buy tablet may not necessary continue spend money at Amazon.
More importantly, the competition for all digital products are tense
than before, Google, Apple, Microsoft and Netflex, and many others
are all looking for the revenue in this area. The margin in this
area is small. Therefore, the return of investment for AMZN is not
good.

p*r2012-10-09 07:10

6 楼

AMZN is going down with big volume. Fund managers are exiting now to lock
their annual bonus. I think it will go to $230 before earning.