My prediction about EDU# Stock
U*f
1 楼
VERY good Earning, VERY good growth.
but price will down quickly after huge sell off from institution holders.
- Guessing
but price will down quickly after huge sell off from institution holders.
- Guessing
p*t
2 楼
本来价位就很高啊。。。
而且没啥前景
而且没啥前景
q*t
3 楼
we will see. i am holding my stock and looking for exit around 22.
b*p
4 楼
a guess for the price range and time frame, please?
thanks!
【在 U********f 的大作中提到】
: VERY good Earning, VERY good growth.
: but price will down quickly after huge sell off from institution holders.
: - Guessing
thanks!
【在 U********f 的大作中提到】
: VERY good Earning, VERY good growth.
: but price will down quickly after huge sell off from institution holders.
: - Guessing
b*p
5 楼
ER出来了，revs missed by $0.10，下面看如何解读了。
http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/inplay#edu
7:02AM New Oriental Education & Technology misses by $0.10, misses on revs;
guides Q2 revs below consensus (EDU) 16.69 : Reports Q1 (Aug) earnings of $0
.65 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.10 worse than the Capital
IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.75; revenues rose 25.8% year/year to $335.8 mln
vs the $347.5 mln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q2, sees Q2
revs of $165-171.6 mln vs. $172.96 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. Total
student enrollments in academic subjects tutoring and test preparation
courses increased by 11.3% year-over-year to ~898,900 from ~807,700 in the
same period of the prior fiscal year. New Oriental was later informed by the
staff of the Division of Corporation Finance of the Security and Exchange
Commission that, based on the Company's representations made in response to
the SEC's inquiries, the staff has no objection to the Company's
consolidation of its variable interest entity, Beijing New Oriental
Education & Technology Co, into the Company's consolidated financial
statements, and also has no objection to the Company's consolidation of its
schools into New Oriental China or into the Company's wholly-owned
subsidiaries in China.
http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/inplay#edu
7:02AM New Oriental Education & Technology misses by $0.10, misses on revs;
guides Q2 revs below consensus (EDU) 16.69 : Reports Q1 (Aug) earnings of $0
.65 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.10 worse than the Capital
IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.75; revenues rose 25.8% year/year to $335.8 mln
vs the $347.5 mln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q2, sees Q2
revs of $165-171.6 mln vs. $172.96 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. Total
student enrollments in academic subjects tutoring and test preparation
courses increased by 11.3% year-over-year to ~898,900 from ~807,700 in the
same period of the prior fiscal year. New Oriental was later informed by the
staff of the Division of Corporation Finance of the Security and Exchange
Commission that, based on the Company's representations made in response to
the SEC's inquiries, the staff has no objection to the Company's
consolidation of its variable interest entity, Beijing New Oriental
Education & Technology Co, into the Company's consolidated financial
statements, and also has no objection to the Company's consolidation of its
schools into New Oriental China or into the Company's wholly-owned
subsidiaries in China.
p*t
6 楼
不知道为啥有人看好EDU。。。
说说看？
说说看？
b*p
7 楼
预测失败了一半以上，sorry.
【在 U********f 的大作中提到】
: VERY good Earning, VERY good growth.
: but price will down quickly after huge sell off from institution holders.
: - Guessing
【在 U********f 的大作中提到】
: VERY good Earning, VERY good growth.
: but price will down quickly after huge sell off from institution holders.
: - Guessing
U*f
8 楼
For a profit school, this income actually is not bad at all.
I was thinking that management have to manipulate the numbers in order to
keep investor's confidence. However, the stock price will drop a lot due to
the missing expectation and weak outlook.
I still predict that price will drop at least 25% in 1 month.
Period.
【在 b*****p 的大作中提到】
: 预测失败了一半以上，sorry.
I was thinking that management have to manipulate the numbers in order to
keep investor's confidence. However, the stock price will drop a lot due to
the missing expectation and weak outlook.
I still predict that price will drop at least 25% in 1 month.
Period.
【在 b*****p 的大作中提到】
: 预测失败了一半以上，sorry.
m*7
9 楼
也就是说你预测一个月内，新东方股价会跌倒16.69 x 0.75= 12.52.
让我们拭目以待。
to
【在 U********f 的大作中提到】
: For a profit school, this income actually is not bad at all.
: I was thinking that management have to manipulate the numbers in order to
: keep investor's confidence. However, the stock price will drop a lot due to
: the missing expectation and weak outlook.
: I still predict that price will drop at least 25% in 1 month.
: Period.
让我们拭目以待。
to
【在 U********f 的大作中提到】
: For a profit school, this income actually is not bad at all.
: I was thinking that management have to manipulate the numbers in order to
: keep investor's confidence. However, the stock price will drop a lot due to
: the missing expectation and weak outlook.
: I still predict that price will drop at least 25% in 1 month.
: Period.
u*n
10 楼
正常股价应该20-22,现在revenue miss了一点,打个8-10%的折扣，如果正常情况下。
但新东方这股票受操控很厉害。1，走势日内波动很大。2，一直借不到可作空的股票。
如果大盘变化不大，即使被mm搞，应该不会到15以下。
【在 m********7 的大作中提到】
: 也就是说你预测一个月内，新东方股价会跌倒16.69 x 0.75= 12.52.
: 让我们拭目以待。
:
: to
但新东方这股票受操控很厉害。1，走势日内波动很大。2，一直借不到可作空的股票。
如果大盘变化不大，即使被mm搞，应该不会到15以下。
【在 m********7 的大作中提到】
: 也就是说你预测一个月内，新东方股价会跌倒16.69 x 0.75= 12.52.
: 让我们拭目以待。
:
: to
q*t
11 楼
i bet it will go up tomorrow and steadily climb to 18 level. but 22 is too
far now.
i thought last quarter (ending August?) should be the best season for them,
yet they still cannot beat the estimate.
【在 u**********n 的大作中提到】
: 正常股价应该20-22,现在revenue miss了一点,打个8-10%的折扣，如果正常情况下。
: 但新东方这股票受操控很厉害。1，走势日内波动很大。2，一直借不到可作空的股票。
: 如果大盘变化不大，即使被mm搞，应该不会到15以下。
far now.
i thought last quarter (ending August?) should be the best season for them,
yet they still cannot beat the estimate.
【在 u**********n 的大作中提到】
: 正常股价应该20-22,现在revenue miss了一点,打个8-10%的折扣，如果正常情况下。
: 但新东方这股票受操控很厉害。1，走势日内波动很大。2，一直借不到可作空的股票。
: 如果大盘变化不大，即使被mm搞，应该不会到15以下。
m*7
12 楼
新东方一般在Q1的暑期 和Q3的寒假是最重要的。他们一般的策略是在Q2 和 Q4 加教学
点，为Q1Q3做准备。但是这一次他们竟然在Q1也加了80多个新点。说明他们的确在执行
他们的抢占市场策略。把点布好，增加后来的竞争者准入难度。这种方式其实和amazon
，或当年的walmart的策略是一样的。
下一步就是如何充分的利用这些点了，过去两年新东方员工人数从两万增加到了3万。
相信他们从长期来看，会前景不错。
实际上q1后很多投行都把edu的TP 提高了。
点，为Q1Q3做准备。但是这一次他们竟然在Q1也加了80多个新点。说明他们的确在执行
他们的抢占市场策略。把点布好，增加后来的竞争者准入难度。这种方式其实和amazon
，或当年的walmart的策略是一样的。
下一步就是如何充分的利用这些点了，过去两年新东方员工人数从两万增加到了3万。
相信他们从长期来看，会前景不错。
实际上q1后很多投行都把edu的TP 提高了。
b*p
13 楼
Are you sure about 25%?
That is a lot.
Unless another MW attack is coming, I do not think it is possible.
to
【在 U********f 的大作中提到】
: For a profit school, this income actually is not bad at all.
: I was thinking that management have to manipulate the numbers in order to
: keep investor's confidence. However, the stock price will drop a lot due to
: the missing expectation and weak outlook.
: I still predict that price will drop at least 25% in 1 month.
: Period.
That is a lot.
Unless another MW attack is coming, I do not think it is possible.
to
【在 U********f 的大作中提到】
: For a profit school, this income actually is not bad at all.
: I was thinking that management have to manipulate the numbers in order to
: keep investor's confidence. However, the stock price will drop a lot due to
: the missing expectation and weak outlook.
: I still predict that price will drop at least 25% in 1 month.
: Period.
U*f
14 楼
For-profit-school is a kind of professional small business model.
It requires a lot of time and energy to input into business and labor costs
are the biggest portion of expenses. If EDU keeps doing the TOFEL OR GRE
whatever tests, it can continue to make some money. I do not think it would
succeed in the general English training business, since this business
can not utilize the
scale of economy and teachers' skills are much more important than school's
brand name.
You may find out there was a franchise dentist corporation in the stock
market long time ago, and it went to bankruptcy quickly.
Do not fall in love this this business, it will not grow and it is already
too big.
【在 b*****p 的大作中提到】
: Are you sure about 25%?
: That is a lot.
: Unless another MW attack is coming, I do not think it is possible.
:
: to
It requires a lot of time and energy to input into business and labor costs
are the biggest portion of expenses. If EDU keeps doing the TOFEL OR GRE
whatever tests, it can continue to make some money. I do not think it would
succeed in the general English training business, since this business
can not utilize the
scale of economy and teachers' skills are much more important than school's
brand name.
You may find out there was a franchise dentist corporation in the stock
market long time ago, and it went to bankruptcy quickly.
Do not fall in love this this business, it will not grow and it is already
too big.
【在 b*****p 的大作中提到】
: Are you sure about 25%?
: That is a lot.
: Unless another MW attack is coming, I do not think it is possible.
:
: to
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