c*1
3 楼
MM在震小散,爆乳爆乳。
t*9
5 楼
之前两个QE,很多投资者认为fed大开印钞机会引起高通胀,都买入黄金避险,但经
过几年发现通胀并没有升高,股市反而涨了不少,让之前买入黄金的投资者很失望,现
在资金转移到股市里
过几年发现通胀并没有升高,股市反而涨了不少,让之前买入黄金的投资者很失望,现
在资金转移到股市里
u*e
7 楼
油也跌了,
s*i
17 楼
你这个想法是不对的。如果金价不持续上涨,那么。1。$700/oz or $1200/oz的annual
return会降低。2。新钱如果投入到金子,几乎没有return,导致总资产annual
return下降。所以投资者都回逐渐失望。
金价的高低在于net buyer,也就是说每年生产出来的金子和要转手的金子减去金子需
求。如果没有net buyer的话,就会持续下跌。
QE1
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: 之前买入黄金的投资者 who loaded gold at $700/oz and silver $10/oz before QE1
: are not 很失望
: even those who loaded gold below $1200/oz and silver $18/oz before QE2 are
: doing way better than SP500
return会降低。2。新钱如果投入到金子,几乎没有return,导致总资产annual
return下降。所以投资者都回逐渐失望。
金价的高低在于net buyer,也就是说每年生产出来的金子和要转手的金子减去金子需
求。如果没有net buyer的话,就会持续下跌。
QE1
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: 之前买入黄金的投资者 who loaded gold at $700/oz and silver $10/oz before QE1
: are not 很失望
: even those who loaded gold below $1200/oz and silver $18/oz before QE2 are
: doing way better than SP500
N*n
18 楼
Classic PET shake to take advantage of the tax loss season to scare
as many weak hands away as possible. If you look at the money flow,
it has a positive divergence despite today's fast pull back.
PET also has to manage it for fiscal cliff. Last year's downgrade
panic sent gold soaring 20%. They probably don't want it to happen
again. Holiday's thin trading makes easier to manipulate so there
might be even wilder actions late in the month.
【在 u********e 的大作中提到】
: 大牛们怎么看? QE4后大跌很离奇啊
w*y
19 楼
Would you explain more about the even wilder actions? You mean push more
down to shake more weak hands? Thank you.
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: Classic PET shake to take advantage of the tax loss season to scare
: as many weak hands away as possible. If you look at the money flow,
: it has a positive divergence despite today's fast pull back.
: PET also has to manage it for fiscal cliff. Last year's downgrade
: panic sent gold soaring 20%. They probably don't want it to happen
: again. Holiday's thin trading makes easier to manipulate so there
: might be even wilder actions late in the month.
down to shake more weak hands? Thank you.
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: Classic PET shake to take advantage of the tax loss season to scare
: as many weak hands away as possible. If you look at the money flow,
: it has a positive divergence despite today's fast pull back.
: PET also has to manage it for fiscal cliff. Last year's downgrade
: panic sent gold soaring 20%. They probably don't want it to happen
: again. Holiday's thin trading makes easier to manipulate so there
: might be even wilder actions late in the month.
r*t
20 楼
多跌一点才好呢
还好我每个月发的是米元
这样我每个月实际工资就上涨了
希望一两年内可以看到1000以下的金子,最好是回到300.
还好我每个月发的是米元
这样我每个月实际工资就上涨了
希望一两年内可以看到1000以下的金子,最好是回到300.
N*n
21 楼
Someone made a nice chart on PET's price rigging after QE announcement.
k*n
24 楼
my point was to answer "经过几年发现通胀并没有升高,股市反而涨了不少"
gold/silver rise more than S&P500 during the past few years since the
financial crisis. It is a fact.
As for the real annual return, yes, it will be lowered if gold price stops
rising and one keeps DCA into it. But this argument can be applied to
anything else too, like stocks and bonds. So the ultimate question comes to
the very basic one, which asset will rise, or rise more?
Talking about net buyers for gold, central banks became a net buyer in 2011
for the first time in over a decade.
annual
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】
: 你这个想法是不对的。如果金价不持续上涨,那么。1。$700/oz or $1200/oz的annual
: return会降低。2。新钱如果投入到金子,几乎没有return,导致总资产annual
: return下降。所以投资者都回逐渐失望。
: 金价的高低在于net buyer,也就是说每年生产出来的金子和要转手的金子减去金子需
: 求。如果没有net buyer的话,就会持续下跌。
:
: QE1
gold/silver rise more than S&P500 during the past few years since the
financial crisis. It is a fact.
As for the real annual return, yes, it will be lowered if gold price stops
rising and one keeps DCA into it. But this argument can be applied to
anything else too, like stocks and bonds. So the ultimate question comes to
the very basic one, which asset will rise, or rise more?
Talking about net buyers for gold, central banks became a net buyer in 2011
for the first time in over a decade.
annual
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】
: 你这个想法是不对的。如果金价不持续上涨,那么。1。$700/oz or $1200/oz的annual
: return会降低。2。新钱如果投入到金子,几乎没有return,导致总资产annual
: return下降。所以投资者都回逐渐失望。
: 金价的高低在于net buyer,也就是说每年生产出来的金子和要转手的金子减去金子需
: 求。如果没有net buyer的话,就会持续下跌。
:
: QE1
s*i
25 楼
你的fact是过去时啊。"经过几年发现通胀并没有升高,股市反而涨了不少" 如果经济
形势就此好转,那么股市上涨的会更快,金子需求进一步下降。不就是这个逻辑么?
to
2011
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: my point was to answer "经过几年发现通胀并没有升高,股市反而涨了不少"
: gold/silver rise more than S&P500 during the past few years since the
: financial crisis. It is a fact.
: As for the real annual return, yes, it will be lowered if gold price stops
: rising and one keeps DCA into it. But this argument can be applied to
: anything else too, like stocks and bonds. So the ultimate question comes to
: the very basic one, which asset will rise, or rise more?
: Talking about net buyers for gold, central banks became a net buyer in 2011
: for the first time in over a decade.
:
形势就此好转,那么股市上涨的会更快,金子需求进一步下降。不就是这个逻辑么?
to
2011
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: my point was to answer "经过几年发现通胀并没有升高,股市反而涨了不少"
: gold/silver rise more than S&P500 during the past few years since the
: financial crisis. It is a fact.
: As for the real annual return, yes, it will be lowered if gold price stops
: rising and one keeps DCA into it. But this argument can be applied to
: anything else too, like stocks and bonds. So the ultimate question comes to
: the very basic one, which asset will rise, or rise more?
: Talking about net buyers for gold, central banks became a net buyer in 2011
: for the first time in over a decade.
:
K*S
28 楼
that's because lots of ppl can't find jobs for long time and already went
out of labor market. Government won't count them in unemployment rate. If
you check the real "under-employment" rate (so called U6), it's not much
different now. Still around 14-15%
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】
: 说不定啊,失业率6.5%,照现在失业率下降的速度,说不定很快就到了。经济这个东西
: 很难讲的。08-09年搞得很多人措手不及,很多有能力消费的人hold off一部分消费,
: 但随着时间的推移,live goes on...消费慢慢恢复了,经济就活了。
out of labor market. Government won't count them in unemployment rate. If
you check the real "under-employment" rate (so called U6), it's not much
different now. Still around 14-15%
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】
: 说不定啊,失业率6.5%,照现在失业率下降的速度,说不定很快就到了。经济这个东西
: 很难讲的。08-09年搞得很多人措手不及,很多有能力消费的人hold off一部分消费,
: 但随着时间的推移,live goes on...消费慢慢恢复了,经济就活了。
g*2
29 楼
这种讨论很好呀。希望多有这一类的讨论。大牛,都是,大牛
g*2
30 楼
我觉得还应该考虑,虽然美国股市涨了,但中国股市并没有涨,而中国的通货膨胀很严
重。我觉得中国是推动黄金价格上涨的重要因素。
重。我觉得中国是推动黄金价格上涨的重要因素。
B*r
31 楼
记得QE3时,我说金价上不去,你说要走着看。现在QE4后,就算有个反弹,也是个死猫
跳。
今年贵重金属矿业最熊,可能预示明年黄金暴跌。
看来你还不承认黄金在走上熊途。
to
2011
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: my point was to answer "经过几年发现通胀并没有升高,股市反而涨了不少"
: gold/silver rise more than S&P500 during the past few years since the
: financial crisis. It is a fact.
: As for the real annual return, yes, it will be lowered if gold price stops
: rising and one keeps DCA into it. But this argument can be applied to
: anything else too, like stocks and bonds. So the ultimate question comes to
: the very basic one, which asset will rise, or rise more?
: Talking about net buyers for gold, central banks became a net buyer in 2011
: for the first time in over a decade.
:
跳。
今年贵重金属矿业最熊,可能预示明年黄金暴跌。
看来你还不承认黄金在走上熊途。
to
2011
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: my point was to answer "经过几年发现通胀并没有升高,股市反而涨了不少"
: gold/silver rise more than S&P500 during the past few years since the
: financial crisis. It is a fact.
: As for the real annual return, yes, it will be lowered if gold price stops
: rising and one keeps DCA into it. But this argument can be applied to
: anything else too, like stocks and bonds. So the ultimate question comes to
: the very basic one, which asset will rise, or rise more?
: Talking about net buyers for gold, central banks became a net buyer in 2011
: for the first time in over a decade.
:
g*2
32 楼
如果A股能有所动作的话,金价恐怕就不太妙了。
中国的钱太多了,通胀又那么严重,房价好像也要走下坡路。
老百姓买黄金也是没有办法。
中国的钱太多了,通胀又那么严重,房价好像也要走下坡路。
老百姓买黄金也是没有办法。
g*2
33 楼
即使在美国,从保值角度来说,现在买房产或股票都比黄金好。
前几次qe,大家还不认为房产会复苏,实体经济会复苏。所以都去买黄金。
前几次qe,大家还不认为房产会复苏,实体经济会复苏。所以都去买黄金。
s*i
35 楼
life goes on。你以前挣十万,现在挣五万,你就认为自己是under-employment,时间
长了,你也就认了。人家再打电话来就就不会认为自己是unemploy的了。另外就是双职
工因素,本来一个人工作,失业了,两口子都在找工作,unemployment number就上去
了,现在一个人找到工作,另一个也不用找了,数字就下来了。还是那句话,life
goes on,既然你不工作也能活下去,那你就不是问题了。只要统计方法是一致的,数
字就有意义。6.5%就是个数字,it does not matter这个数字怎么cook出来的。
【在 K******S 的大作中提到】
: that's because lots of ppl can't find jobs for long time and already went
: out of labor market. Government won't count them in unemployment rate. If
: you check the real "under-employment" rate (so called U6), it's not much
: different now. Still around 14-15%
长了,你也就认了。人家再打电话来就就不会认为自己是unemploy的了。另外就是双职
工因素,本来一个人工作,失业了,两口子都在找工作,unemployment number就上去
了,现在一个人找到工作,另一个也不用找了,数字就下来了。还是那句话,life
goes on,既然你不工作也能活下去,那你就不是问题了。只要统计方法是一致的,数
字就有意义。6.5%就是个数字,it does not matter这个数字怎么cook出来的。
【在 K******S 的大作中提到】
: that's because lots of ppl can't find jobs for long time and already went
: out of labor market. Government won't count them in unemployment rate. If
: you check the real "under-employment" rate (so called U6), it's not much
: different now. Still around 14-15%
k*n
39 楼
of course I 不承认黄金在走上熊途
matter of fact, gold is still beating DOW on its YTD so far this year
this year-long basing prepares a pretty good launching pad for gold
again, we will 走著看, lol
as for miners, my pick SAND, RGLD, PPP and TGD are all doing well
small silver miners like RVM, AUMN have been underperforming though
【在 B**********r 的大作中提到】
: 记得QE3时,我说金价上不去,你说要走着看。现在QE4后,就算有个反弹,也是个死猫
: 跳。
: 今年贵重金属矿业最熊,可能预示明年黄金暴跌。
: 看来你还不承认黄金在走上熊途。
:
: to
: 2011
matter of fact, gold is still beating DOW on its YTD so far this year
this year-long basing prepares a pretty good launching pad for gold
again, we will 走著看, lol
as for miners, my pick SAND, RGLD, PPP and TGD are all doing well
small silver miners like RVM, AUMN have been underperforming though
【在 B**********r 的大作中提到】
: 记得QE3时,我说金价上不去,你说要走着看。现在QE4后,就算有个反弹,也是个死猫
: 跳。
: 今年贵重金属矿业最熊,可能预示明年黄金暴跌。
: 看来你还不承认黄金在走上熊途。
:
: to
: 2011
k*n
41 楼
nobody can predict future
I think it is you were predicting future when saying "所以投资者都回逐渐失望"
I don't know how gold bugs are feeling and whether they will feel
失望 in the future. But they have no point feeling 失望 looking back as
it has been consistently beating the overall stock market.
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】
: 您这几位大牛都能predict future啊。。。服了。
I think it is you were predicting future when saying "所以投资者都回逐渐失望"
I don't know how gold bugs are feeling and whether they will feel
失望 in the future. But they have no point feeling 失望 looking back as
it has been consistently beating the overall stock market.
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】
: 您这几位大牛都能predict future啊。。。服了。
s*i
42 楼
我在17楼说的很清楚啊。“如果金价不持续上涨”,"所以投资者都回逐渐失望",有什
么错误么?过去的一年金价的上涨和QE不成比例也是fact啊。
望"
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: nobody can predict future
: I think it is you were predicting future when saying "所以投资者都回逐渐失望"
: I don't know how gold bugs are feeling and whether they will feel
: 失望 in the future. But they have no point feeling 失望 looking back as
: it has been consistently beating the overall stock market.
么错误么?过去的一年金价的上涨和QE不成比例也是fact啊。
望"
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: nobody can predict future
: I think it is you were predicting future when saying "所以投资者都回逐渐失望"
: I don't know how gold bugs are feeling and whether they will feel
: 失望 in the future. But they have no point feeling 失望 looking back as
: it has been consistently beating the overall stock market.
k*n
43 楼
I have made it pretty clear in my first post that I was replying to
that ID's point of "让之前买入黄金的投资者很失望"
what's the point of your jumping in saying with 如果金价不持续上涨”,"所以
投资者都回逐渐失望"? Change 金价 to anything else, it all applies. What's
the point
then?
"过去的一年金价的上涨和QE不成比例也是fact啊". the same can be said for
stocks
as GLD is still outperforming DOW so far this year.
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】
: 我在17楼说的很清楚啊。“如果金价不持续上涨”,"所以投资者都回逐渐失望",有什
: 么错误么?过去的一年金价的上涨和QE不成比例也是fact啊。
:
: 望"
that ID's point of "让之前买入黄金的投资者很失望"
what's the point of your jumping in saying with 如果金价不持续上涨”,"所以
投资者都回逐渐失望"? Change 金价 to anything else, it all applies. What's
the point
then?
"过去的一年金价的上涨和QE不成比例也是fact啊". the same can be said for
stocks
as GLD is still outperforming DOW so far this year.
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】
: 我在17楼说的很清楚啊。“如果金价不持续上涨”,"所以投资者都回逐渐失望",有什
: 么错误么?过去的一年金价的上涨和QE不成比例也是fact啊。
:
: 望"
s*i
44 楼
QE3是9/13/2011宣布的,GOLD咋就outperform DOW了?就看YTD么?
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: I have made it pretty clear in my first post that I was replying to
: that ID's point of "让之前买入黄金的投资者很失望"
: what's the point of your jumping in saying with 如果金价不持续上涨”,"所以
: 投资者都回逐渐失望"? Change 金价 to anything else, it all applies. What's
: the point
: then?
: "过去的一年金价的上涨和QE不成比例也是fact啊". the same can be said for
: stocks
: as GLD is still outperforming DOW so far this year.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: I have made it pretty clear in my first post that I was replying to
: that ID's point of "让之前买入黄金的投资者很失望"
: what's the point of your jumping in saying with 如果金价不持续上涨”,"所以
: 投资者都回逐渐失望"? Change 金价 to anything else, it all applies. What's
: the point
: then?
: "过去的一年金价的上涨和QE不成比例也是fact啊". the same can be said for
: stocks
: as GLD is still outperforming DOW so far this year.
B*r
45 楼
An average stock mutual fund is up about 15% YTD.
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