野村:苹果最坏情况下可能会跌至336美元。# Stock
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NOMURA: Apple Is Moving Into Its 'Ex-Growth' Phase, And The Stock Could Go
As Low As $336
Joe Weisenthal | Jan. 24, 2013, 5:49 AM | 4,720 | 12
There are sure to be lots of brutal Apple takedowns from Wall Street today.
Here's one from Nomura, which declares that the company is now in its "ex-
growth" phase, which is very ominous sounding.
The weak Q2 dynamics seem to support our view that Apple is moving into an
ex-growth phase in which unit growth is likely to come increasingly at the
expense of gross margin declines. The net effect is limited earnings growth,
EPS that likely tops-out at $50, which is likely to attract a multiple
little better than comparable ex-growth peers such as Microsoft and Cisco.
An 8x ex-cash multiple on our EPS forecast of $50 plus $89 in excess cash
drives our fair value of $490.
This table shows how Nomura values the stock:
And in a real ice age scenario, it could get even worse.
Potential downside risk to $336
If we exclude the excess cash, as some investors may do, then there is
downside to the stock to $400. Moreover, if iPhone gross margins fall to 40%
vs. our 47% forecast, then EPS could fall to $42 and fair value could
decline further to $336.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/nomura-apple-is-moving-into-its-ex-growth-phase-and-the-stock-could-go-as-low-as-336-2013-1#ixzz2J6tmab6J
As Low As $336
Joe Weisenthal | Jan. 24, 2013, 5:49 AM | 4,720 | 12
There are sure to be lots of brutal Apple takedowns from Wall Street today.
Here's one from Nomura, which declares that the company is now in its "ex-
growth" phase, which is very ominous sounding.
The weak Q2 dynamics seem to support our view that Apple is moving into an
ex-growth phase in which unit growth is likely to come increasingly at the
expense of gross margin declines. The net effect is limited earnings growth,
EPS that likely tops-out at $50, which is likely to attract a multiple
little better than comparable ex-growth peers such as Microsoft and Cisco.
An 8x ex-cash multiple on our EPS forecast of $50 plus $89 in excess cash
drives our fair value of $490.
This table shows how Nomura values the stock:
And in a real ice age scenario, it could get even worse.
Potential downside risk to $336
If we exclude the excess cash, as some investors may do, then there is
downside to the stock to $400. Moreover, if iPhone gross margins fall to 40%
vs. our 47% forecast, then EPS could fall to $42 and fair value could
decline further to $336.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/nomura-apple-is-moving-into-its-ex-growth-phase-and-the-stock-could-go-as-low-as-336-2013-1#ixzz2J6tmab6J