有AMZN股票的, 好好研究一下CSCO 20 年历史. - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

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有AMZN股票的, 好好研究一下CSCO 20 年历史.

有AMZN股票的, 好好研究一下CSCO 20 年历史.# Stock

p*r2013-04-25 07:04

1 楼

Also keep in mind that CSCO still could make big profit when it was in
high growth time before year 2001. So, CSCO had near $20B cash around 2001,
and about $40B cash now. Regardless, CSCO eventually comes down to $20 from
over $65/share when it's in high growth time. Wall street gives you high PE
if a company growth ratio is high. When a company growth is smaller, the PE
will go back to more reasonable from teen to 30 or max 50-60.
AMZN high growth story is near ending. Its growth ratio is around 20 now.
Also it just couldn't make good profit in the last 3 years. No cash for buy
back and dividend. The stock only can go one direction.
Image if wall street gives AMZN 30 PE or even 50 PE or even 100. What the
price of this stock will be ? The more calculation you do, the more scary
you will be if you have AMZN shares.

b*r2013-04-25 07:04

2 楼

CSCO once was a $500 B company. Seems 500B is a magic number for
tech giants. Streets tend to pump the real flagship tech company to that
level, then..dump.
AMZN looks to me a prospective candidate as well. You still need to consider
the possibility that AMZN could be pumped much higher, even not reach the
level of 500B market cap.

b*r2013-04-25 07:04

3 楼

By the way, at this moment, GOOG is of course the best candidate for 500B
family.

p*r2013-04-25 07:04

4 楼

CSCO was a $500B company because it had both revenue and income growth. It
made a lot of money during its high growth period.
AAPL was over $500B for the same reason.
GOOG potentially could be another 500B company. The reason will be same.
The top for AMZN is already set if it cannot improve its income.
The large part of AMZN business is lousy retail business because margin is
very thin and consumers only have loyalty to the price.
AMZN has to keep trying different things to have growth, and only revenue
growth. For example, its kindle fire product line. It's running it like
charity. Selling hardware at around cost, try to get people buy digital
contents, or shopping on AMZN. Things didn't turn well.

x*n2013-04-25 07:04

5 楼

Cisco does have his core service,
70% core market was dominated by cisco.
It is hardly to compete...
Amazon's core was so easy to beat, book maybe, but digital book, we can buy
from apple store, same price, easy as it is. the only way to keep book
market is kindle, so far, we still can't sure kindle will outperform barn's
noble or ipad.
For web service, we can say maybe.

【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】

: CSCO was a $500B company because it had both revenue and income growth. It
: made a lot of money during its high growth period.
: AAPL was over $500B for the same reason.
: GOOG potentially could be another 500B company. The reason will be same.
: The top for AMZN is already set if it cannot improve its income.
: The large part of AMZN business is lousy retail business because margin is
: very thin and consumers only have loyalty to the price.
: AMZN has to keep trying different things to have growth, and only revenue
: growth. For example, its kindle fire product line. It's running it like
: charity. Selling hardware at around cost, try to get people buy digital

k*a2013-04-25 07:04

6 楼

AMZN is ripe.
YOY increase of revenue slowed down. The best hype (Cloud) also is expected
to grow only 17%, less than the other sector of AMZN at 20%+. Even
unfortunately, its cloud offering has same thin margin.
Top of AMZN could be already in. AAPL soar due to income. AMZN soar due to
revenue. However, stock will peak ahead of income/revenue.

p*r2013-04-25 07:04

7 楼

One funny and very funny thing for AMZN stock is
its estimates for Q1 is dropped to all the way to 7 cents, but stock price
could
stay near peak. Most of stocks price will go down when their estimates are
reduced, but not AMZN. This definitely is manipulated by some funds, may be
3-4 funds MM. However, this bubble eventually will get busted. It's just
matter of time.

expected

【在 k*****a 的大作中提到】

: AMZN is ripe.
: YOY increase of revenue slowed down. The best hype (Cloud) also is expected
: to grow only 17%, less than the other sector of AMZN at 20%+. Even
: unfortunately, its cloud offering has same thin margin.
: Top of AMZN could be already in. AAPL soar due to income. AMZN soar due to
: revenue. However, stock will peak ahead of income/revenue.