分享以下80年黄金大跌的原因 （ZT）# Stock
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The Hunt brothers were worried about Nixon taking the US off the gold
standard in 1971. They started to purchase silver as a hedge against the
devaluing dollar. They had to purchase silver because it was not legal for
Americans to own gold until 1975.
The two wealthy brothers began purchasing silver futures contracts on the
commodity exchanges. The Hunt brothers took delivery of the silver at the
expiration of the contract instead of rolling the contract over into a new
contract. In 1974 they had managed to acquire around 55 million ounces of
physical silver. They charted three 707 planes to transport 40 million
ounces of silver from the US to Switzerland. enter image description here
They continued to purchase silver contracts and taking delivery of the
silver at the end of the contract. They were now borrowing money to purchase
the contracts. By 1979 they had purchased 43 million ounces of silver
through COMEX and CBOT – the two major commodity exchanges.
By 1980 they had 90 million ounces of silver in futures contracts. COMEX and
CBOT started to restrict silver trading since it was widely believed the
exchanges did not have all the silver to deliver to the Hunt brothers. First
they raised margin requirements. Then they set limits with regard to the
amount of silver contracts that could be held by any one investor.
Finally in January, 1980 the exchanges halted all trading of silver and
forced contract holders to sell any contracts that were over the individual
owner limit. The buyers knew the sellers were forced to sell so the price of
silver came crashing down. The Hunt brothers declared bankruptcy since they
could not cover the loans they used to purchase the silver.
Another major factor in the crash of gold and silver was Volker taking over
as the Federal Reserve chairman. Volker raised interest rates substantially
reducing the amount of leverage being used to speculate in the market. enter
image description here
vConclusion: CPI and inflation fears set the general trend for gold prices (
though they are not always correlated). But a dramatic spike and fall in
gold prices were caused due to a combination of extreme geo-political events
(Russian invasion of Afghanistan in Dec 1979, Iran hostage crisis) and
strong and unconventional policy actions and market events (the Fed under
Volcker increased fed funds rate from 13% to 20% for a short period in Q1
1980, and Hunt’s brothers silver market cornering failed due to their
inability to meet a margin call during falling silver prices in Mar 1980,
exacerbating the fall in precious metals). It is an interesting mix of these
events which resulted in the roller coaster gold prices in 1980.
standard in 1971. They started to purchase silver as a hedge against the
devaluing dollar. They had to purchase silver because it was not legal for
Americans to own gold until 1975.
The two wealthy brothers began purchasing silver futures contracts on the
commodity exchanges. The Hunt brothers took delivery of the silver at the
expiration of the contract instead of rolling the contract over into a new
contract. In 1974 they had managed to acquire around 55 million ounces of
physical silver. They charted three 707 planes to transport 40 million
ounces of silver from the US to Switzerland. enter image description here
They continued to purchase silver contracts and taking delivery of the
silver at the end of the contract. They were now borrowing money to purchase
the contracts. By 1979 they had purchased 43 million ounces of silver
through COMEX and CBOT – the two major commodity exchanges.
By 1980 they had 90 million ounces of silver in futures contracts. COMEX and
CBOT started to restrict silver trading since it was widely believed the
exchanges did not have all the silver to deliver to the Hunt brothers. First
they raised margin requirements. Then they set limits with regard to the
amount of silver contracts that could be held by any one investor.
Finally in January, 1980 the exchanges halted all trading of silver and
forced contract holders to sell any contracts that were over the individual
owner limit. The buyers knew the sellers were forced to sell so the price of
silver came crashing down. The Hunt brothers declared bankruptcy since they
could not cover the loans they used to purchase the silver.
Another major factor in the crash of gold and silver was Volker taking over
as the Federal Reserve chairman. Volker raised interest rates substantially
reducing the amount of leverage being used to speculate in the market. enter
image description here
vConclusion: CPI and inflation fears set the general trend for gold prices (
though they are not always correlated). But a dramatic spike and fall in
gold prices were caused due to a combination of extreme geo-political events
(Russian invasion of Afghanistan in Dec 1979, Iran hostage crisis) and
strong and unconventional policy actions and market events (the Fed under
Volcker increased fed funds rate from 13% to 20% for a short period in Q1
1980, and Hunt’s brothers silver market cornering failed due to their
inability to meet a margin call during falling silver prices in Mar 1980,
exacerbating the fall in precious metals). It is an interesting mix of these
events which resulted in the roller coaster gold prices in 1980.