m*o
5 楼
金子真没底
N*n
6 楼
l*u
7 楼
1250快了。
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: I guess 1250 zone is the near term bottom. The tip for me is GLD JULY
: PUT option. The lowest big build up is GLD @120 prior to this PET raid
: so it seems that area is where the insiders think it'd drop to.
: Keep an eye on option activity on GLD / SLV for further clues.
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: I guess 1250 zone is the near term bottom. The tip for me is GLD JULY
: PUT option. The lowest big build up is GLD @120 prior to this PET raid
: so it seems that area is where the insiders think it'd drop to.
: Keep an eye on option activity on GLD / SLV for further clues.
m*c
10 楼
但是把增加的货币量算进去应该跌的要打折扣吧。 在 mdrosophila (ranger) 的大作
中提到 】
中提到 】
m*a
12 楼
m*a
14 楼
do not make this kind amateur mistake.
It is your money. Would you throw your money away?
Sell in any dead cat rebound and cut further loss.
Gold may go back $1350. Sold immediately because it will go below $1000 if
you wait. It is my 2 cents.
I am always an advocate to hate GOLD.
【在 d*****d 的大作中提到】
: 跌10%的时候肉好疼,现在下20%了反而没感觉了。
It is your money. Would you throw your money away?
Sell in any dead cat rebound and cut further loss.
Gold may go back $1350. Sold immediately because it will go below $1000 if
you wait. It is my 2 cents.
I am always an advocate to hate GOLD.
【在 d*****d 的大作中提到】
: 跌10%的时候肉好疼,现在下20%了反而没感觉了。
O*l
15 楼
问题现在通胀就在1点几根本起不来啊 进口商品价格都连降了好几个月了
shale gas oil把石油搞死了 石油也涨不起来 真想不出怎么才能通胀
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: QE是FED买的 treasury bonds 和RMBS bonds, 约3.5 trillions。
: 这些bonds到期了,这些所谓印的钱就回到fed,就消失了。
: FED也可以提前把这些bonds卖了。
: 但是FED印的钱远远不到,银行develerage减少的货币量.
: 这就是为啥远期通货膨胀的预期只有2.5%.
: 最重要的指标就是远期通货膨胀的预期.
: 黄金已经price in 10-15%的通胀,
: 只有一条路: 慢慢的阴跌。
: 除非远期通货膨胀的预期暴涨。
m*a
18 楼
FED一直说没有通胀是没有用的。
你要看市场的远期通胀指数. long term inflation index. good luck.
lycsky (fly) 的大作中提到: 】
你要看市场的远期通胀指数. long term inflation index. good luck.
lycsky (fly) 的大作中提到: 】
N*n
19 楼
USGovt is in perennial deficit, and FED is the main buyer of USBond
so they cannot stop expanding their balance sheet. There's no way they
can "提前把这些bonds卖了". They would crash both bond and housing
market if they do that.
This 2.5预期 theory is flawed at best. First of Govt CPI is rigged.
Real CPI is far higher than that. Secondly asset price does not go
up in sync. Some goes up a lot (such as gold) some goes down b/c
they are a bubble such as (bond and real estate). Thirdly the rest
of world is switching their US$ for assets that cannot be printed
so the demand of gold remains high despite this kind short-term
correction.
As long as FED has to finance all the USGovt debt, gold bull market
is here to stay.
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: QE是FED买的 treasury bonds 和RMBS bonds, 约3.5 trillions。
: 这些bonds到期了,这些所谓印的钱就回到fed,就消失了。
: FED也可以提前把这些bonds卖了。
: 但是FED印的钱远远不到,银行develerage减少的货币量.
: 这就是为啥远期通货膨胀的预期只有2.5%.
: 最重要的指标就是远期通货膨胀的预期.
: 黄金已经price in 10-15%的通胀,
: 只有一条路: 慢慢的阴跌。
: 除非远期通货膨胀的预期暴涨。
u*n
23 楼
我前段时间听几个美国人说,因为现在美国自己开了块油田,从中东进口石油少了,导
致黄金下跌。可能以前中东人把美元换成黄金。
致黄金下跌。可能以前中东人把美元换成黄金。
m*a
24 楼
Are you aware that US fiscal deficit is shrinking faster than expected?
US fiscal deficit is now below $700billions a year, 4% of GDP.
Deficit will turn into surplus if the policy is not changed very soon.
If you look at an example of Wisconsin state, with slight control on
Unionized labor cost, Wisconsin state has huge surplus instead of deficit.
I am not worrying about deficit any more.
I used to worry about it 2-3 years ago.
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: USGovt is in perennial deficit, and FED is the main buyer of USBond
: so they cannot stop expanding their balance sheet. There's no way they
: can "提前把这些bonds卖了". They would crash both bond and housing
: market if they do that.
: This 2.5预期 theory is flawed at best. First of Govt CPI is rigged.
: Real CPI is far higher than that. Secondly asset price does not go
: up in sync. Some goes up a lot (such as gold) some goes down b/c
: they are a bubble such as (bond and real estate). Thirdly the rest
: of world is switching their US$ for assets that cannot be printed
US fiscal deficit is now below $700billions a year, 4% of GDP.
Deficit will turn into surplus if the policy is not changed very soon.
If you look at an example of Wisconsin state, with slight control on
Unionized labor cost, Wisconsin state has huge surplus instead of deficit.
I am not worrying about deficit any more.
I used to worry about it 2-3 years ago.
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: USGovt is in perennial deficit, and FED is the main buyer of USBond
: so they cannot stop expanding their balance sheet. There's no way they
: can "提前把这些bonds卖了". They would crash both bond and housing
: market if they do that.
: This 2.5预期 theory is flawed at best. First of Govt CPI is rigged.
: Real CPI is far higher than that. Secondly asset price does not go
: up in sync. Some goes up a lot (such as gold) some goes down b/c
: they are a bubble such as (bond and real estate). Thirdly the rest
: of world is switching their US$ for assets that cannot be printed
s*y
25 楼
不用跟这傻子浪费时间讲道理。 象我这样就很好。我很高兴看到这傻子赚来的工资和
黄金一起灰飞烟灭。呵呵
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: Are you aware that US fiscal deficit is shrinking faster than expected?
: US fiscal deficit is now below $700billions a year, 4% of GDP.
: Deficit will turn into surplus if the policy is not changed very soon.
: If you look at an example of Wisconsin state, with slight control on
: Unionized labor cost, Wisconsin state has huge surplus instead of deficit.
: I am not worrying about deficit any more.
: I used to worry about it 2-3 years ago.
黄金一起灰飞烟灭。呵呵
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: Are you aware that US fiscal deficit is shrinking faster than expected?
: US fiscal deficit is now below $700billions a year, 4% of GDP.
: Deficit will turn into surplus if the policy is not changed very soon.
: If you look at an example of Wisconsin state, with slight control on
: Unionized labor cost, Wisconsin state has huge surplus instead of deficit.
: I am not worrying about deficit any more.
: I used to worry about it 2-3 years ago.
N*n
26 楼
I'm aware US economy has made NO structural change to fix the debt
problem. It's still a net-consumption economy as the perennial trade
deficit shows. It still has huge unfunded welfare such as SS, Medicaid
and Medicare. Now they add another unfunded ObamaCare to it. Just more
debt to come.
All that "budget surplus" is just smoke and mirror or lipsticks on
this ugly fiscal pig AKA US Economy.
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: Are you aware that US fiscal deficit is shrinking faster than expected?
: US fiscal deficit is now below $700billions a year, 4% of GDP.
: Deficit will turn into surplus if the policy is not changed very soon.
: If you look at an example of Wisconsin state, with slight control on
: Unionized labor cost, Wisconsin state has huge surplus instead of deficit.
: I am not worrying about deficit any more.
: I used to worry about it 2-3 years ago.
O*l
27 楼
屁都不懂 真是受不了 我当年给你白科普
这么说 美国政府 如果说 企业每年海外利润必须全部那会本土 马上巨额盈余
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: I'm aware US economy has made NO structural change to fix the debt
: problem. It's still a net-consumption economy as the perennial trade
: deficit shows. It still has huge unfunded welfare such as SS, Medicaid
: and Medicare. Now they add another unfunded ObamaCare to it. Just more
: debt to come.
: All that "budget surplus" is just smoke and mirror or lipsticks on
: this ugly fiscal pig AKA US Economy.
N*n
28 楼
Completely & utter regurgitated bullshit.
US has a national debt of 16T. A combined budget hole of 35T in
Medicare, Medicaid and Prescription drug program. That's before
we even talk about the new hole of ObamaCare.
Then there's the hundred trillion dollar hole in the derivative
books the banks carry. Show me where do you find 企业海外利润 to
cover all this mess. Bullshit.
【在 O**l 的大作中提到】
:
: 屁都不懂 真是受不了 我当年给你白科普
: 这么说 美国政府 如果说 企业每年海外利润必须全部那会本土 马上巨额盈余
O*l
29 楼
笑死人了 不是在讲贸易赤字 怎么又转进政府债务了
海外公司的利润还政府债务有什么关系 这哪跟哪啊
智商又低 又偏执
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: Completely & utter regurgitated bullshit.
: US has a national debt of 16T. A combined budget hole of 35T in
: Medicare, Medicaid and Prescription drug program. That's before
: we even talk about the new hole of ObamaCare.
: Then there's the hundred trillion dollar hole in the derivative
: books the banks carry. Show me where do you find 企业海外利润 to
: cover all this mess. Bullshit.
O*l
32 楼
Prove个屁啊 企业海外利润对应经常性赤字
政府赢余对应 财政赤字
你拿海外利润对比16t 国债 完全是狗屁不通
简直一脑袋糨糊
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: LOL. You were that moron claiming "海外利润" could lead to "巨额盈余"
: After I proved that little "海外利润" ain't gonna help nothing you
: wanna back-peddle onto some other nonsense.
: You are just full of shit, aren't you? LOL
c*s
33 楼
谢谢几位大牛讨论, 我对黃金还真不敢碰了。
这种东西真是看不见底。
这种东西真是看不见底。
B*r
36 楼
如果到1000以下的话,可以频繁投机trade一下。
p*o
37 楼
黄金1200应该是现在的生产总成本。
跌倒1000的话,估计很多金矿都不会开发新矿了,开发一个亏一个。
跌倒1000的话,估计很多金矿都不会开发新矿了,开发一个亏一个。
N*n
39 楼
The bullshit just keeps coming.
70% of US economy is consumption, and it's worst kinda of consumption
as they have run out of their savings now they simply take on more
debt to consume. Production and export count only a small part of the
big picture, which means whatever amount of "海外利润" is tiny in
comparison with the ever-growing debt.
And who in their right mind would suggest nonsense such as "外利润
必须全部那会本土" to fix economy. Essentially you want to take money
away from productive people and give it to debtor losers, and you
think that's the fix??!! BwwHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!
You are just full of shit w/o any doubt whatsoever.
【在 O**l 的大作中提到】
:
: 他说的是trade deficit 你看清楚没有
: 国债是另外一回事
O*l
40 楼
屁都不懂 又扯淡了
美国的GDP 是按消费法算的。所有gdp都是消费
百分之70是个人消费
你能有一句话。 讲对嘛
笑死人。这种玩意还抄黄金
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: The bullshit just keeps coming.
: 70% of US economy is consumption, and it's worst kinda of consumption
: as they have run out of their savings now they simply take on more
: debt to consume. Production and export count only a small part of the
: big picture, which means whatever amount of "海外利润" is tiny in
: comparison with the ever-growing debt.
: And who in their right mind would suggest nonsense such as "外利润
: 必须全部那会本土" to fix economy. Essentially you want to take money
: away from productive people and give it to debtor losers, and you
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