JCP 下周一走势TA分析--RSI# Stock
f*9
1 楼
JCP从九月底就一直处于oversold的状态RSI小于30，短期内有回到RSI30以上的强大压
力，target price 7.57，then RSI will move above 30.所以短期内（或许就在明天
）一个10%的反弹是可以期待的。
力，target price 7.57，then RSI will move above 30.所以短期内（或许就在明天
）一个10%的反弹是可以期待的。
N*d
2 楼
然后继续跌？
f*9
3 楼
After the dilution and cash flow revisions, the fair value estimate falls
from $23 per share to $12.In the short term, it's still very bullish.
from $23 per share to $12.In the short term, it's still very bullish.
s*e
4 楼
According to 0.618 rule, it might bottoms around $5.5 range, from its recent
high $14.6ish.
【在 f*********9 的大作中提到】
: JCP从九月底就一直处于oversold的状态RSI小于30，短期内有回到RSI30以上的强大压
: 力，target price 7.57，then RSI will move above 30.所以短期内（或许就在明天
: ）一个10%的反弹是可以期待的。
high $14.6ish.
【在 f*********9 的大作中提到】
: JCP从九月底就一直处于oversold的状态RSI小于30，短期内有回到RSI30以上的强大压
: 力，target price 7.57，then RSI will move above 30.所以短期内（或许就在明天
: ）一个10%的反弹是可以期待的。
C*r
5 楼
说说你12的fair value怎么算的？
【在 f*********9 的大作中提到】
: After the dilution and cash flow revisions, the fair value estimate falls
: from $23 per share to $12.In the short term, it's still very bullish.
【在 f*********9 的大作中提到】
: After the dilution and cash flow revisions, the fair value estimate falls
: from $23 per share to $12.In the short term, it's still very bullish.
s*e
6 楼
Citi gives its target at $7, but another says $1 is its real value.
Grambling outlined two scenarios for the retailer. In one case, the stock
rises to $20. In the other, it declines to $1.
"Upside case ($20): comps accelerate to double-digit levels, consistent with
JCP.com currently, and gross margin recovers to historical levels >37% in
FY14. We apply a 6X EV/EBITDA multiple on FY16 and discount back two years."
"Downside case ($1): comps remain negative in FY14 before stabilizing, gross
margin takes five years to normalize, and aggressive cost cuts are needed
to manage the new sales levels. In this scenario we apply a 5.0X EV/EBITDA
multiple on FY19 and discount back five years." said Grambling.
recent
【在 s******e 的大作中提到】
: According to 0.618 rule, it might bottoms around $5.5 range, from its recent
: high $14.6ish.
Grambling outlined two scenarios for the retailer. In one case, the stock
rises to $20. In the other, it declines to $1.
"Upside case ($20): comps accelerate to double-digit levels, consistent with
JCP.com currently, and gross margin recovers to historical levels >37% in
FY14. We apply a 6X EV/EBITDA multiple on FY16 and discount back two years."
"Downside case ($1): comps remain negative in FY14 before stabilizing, gross
margin takes five years to normalize, and aggressive cost cuts are needed
to manage the new sales levels. In this scenario we apply a 5.0X EV/EBITDA
multiple on FY19 and discount back five years." said Grambling.
recent
【在 s******e 的大作中提到】
: According to 0.618 rule, it might bottoms around $5.5 range, from its recent
: high $14.6ish.
f*9
7 楼
The fair value estimate is $12 per share, down from $23,
with approximately a 30% reduction due to an increase
in share count estimated at over 97 million on a base of
221 million shares at the end of the last quarter, and $3
(or one fifth of the remaining value) due to a further
reduction in near-term operating assumptions. The new
assumptions include more than $1.3 billion in negative
cash flow from operations and more than $900 million in
net capital expenditures in 2013 and just above
break-even cash generation in 2014 despite accounting
losses. On an enterprise value/EBITDA basis, our
valuation implies 22 times depressed 2014 levels and 8
times 2015 EBITDA projections.
The model assumes that revenue will decline 9% in 2013,
as the negative comparable-store sales in the first half
are followed by similar declines in the third quarter and
only minimal improvement in the fourth quarter as
promotions gradually lure customers back and
comparisons get easier each quarter in 2013. The long-run
model assumes modest top-line growth of 3%-12% during
years 4-10. Growth will come mostly from same-store
sales after the large declines in 2012, while medium- and
long-term same-store expansion should be in the low
single digits. Growth in 2014 and 2015 is modeled at 10%
and 12%, reflecting the easy comparisons. Internet sales,
which are projected to be a more meaningful contributor
in the long run, are included in comparable-store sales.
For 2013, I model some gross margin improvement in
the fourth quarter, but the declines of the first half, and a
big decline in the third quarter cause the rate to fall to
below 30% for the full year, below the depressed 31.3%
registered in 2012. Although I model selling, general,
and administrative expense ratio leverage in 2014 and
beyond, without sales increases, I do not see improving
selling, general, and administrative ratios in the near term.
However, I forecast some expense leverage in later
years, with operating margins averaging around 3% over
our explicit forecast period, peaking at just under 7%
toward the end of the cycle.
【在 C*********r 的大作中提到】
: 说说你12的fair value怎么算的？
with approximately a 30% reduction due to an increase
in share count estimated at over 97 million on a base of
221 million shares at the end of the last quarter, and $3
(or one fifth of the remaining value) due to a further
reduction in near-term operating assumptions. The new
assumptions include more than $1.3 billion in negative
cash flow from operations and more than $900 million in
net capital expenditures in 2013 and just above
break-even cash generation in 2014 despite accounting
losses. On an enterprise value/EBITDA basis, our
valuation implies 22 times depressed 2014 levels and 8
times 2015 EBITDA projections.
The model assumes that revenue will decline 9% in 2013,
as the negative comparable-store sales in the first half
are followed by similar declines in the third quarter and
only minimal improvement in the fourth quarter as
promotions gradually lure customers back and
comparisons get easier each quarter in 2013. The long-run
model assumes modest top-line growth of 3%-12% during
years 4-10. Growth will come mostly from same-store
sales after the large declines in 2012, while medium- and
long-term same-store expansion should be in the low
single digits. Growth in 2014 and 2015 is modeled at 10%
and 12%, reflecting the easy comparisons. Internet sales,
which are projected to be a more meaningful contributor
in the long run, are included in comparable-store sales.
For 2013, I model some gross margin improvement in
the fourth quarter, but the declines of the first half, and a
big decline in the third quarter cause the rate to fall to
below 30% for the full year, below the depressed 31.3%
registered in 2012. Although I model selling, general,
and administrative expense ratio leverage in 2014 and
beyond, without sales increases, I do not see improving
selling, general, and administrative ratios in the near term.
However, I forecast some expense leverage in later
years, with operating margins averaging around 3% over
our explicit forecast period, peaking at just under 7%
toward the end of the cycle.
【在 C*********r 的大作中提到】
: 说说你12的fair value怎么算的？
C*r
8 楼
还以为你自己算的，也是新闻 ，
这个新闻说的不够明白，
【在 f*********9 的大作中提到】
: The fair value estimate is $12 per share, down from $23,
: with approximately a 30% reduction due to an increase
: in share count estimated at over 97 million on a base of
: 221 million shares at the end of the last quarter, and $3
: (or one fifth of the remaining value) due to a further
: reduction in near-term operating assumptions. The new
: assumptions include more than $1.3 billion in negative
: cash flow from operations and more than $900 million in
: net capital expenditures in 2013 and just above
: break-even cash generation in 2014 despite accounting
这个新闻说的不够明白，
【在 f*********9 的大作中提到】
: The fair value estimate is $12 per share, down from $23,
: with approximately a 30% reduction due to an increase
: in share count estimated at over 97 million on a base of
: 221 million shares at the end of the last quarter, and $3
: (or one fifth of the remaining value) due to a further
: reduction in near-term operating assumptions. The new
: assumptions include more than $1.3 billion in negative
: cash flow from operations and more than $900 million in
: net capital expenditures in 2013 and just above
: break-even cash generation in 2014 despite accounting
f*9
9 楼
然后就要看 rumor and news 了。
【在 N*****d 的大作中提到】
: 然后继续跌？
【在 N*****d 的大作中提到】
: 然后继续跌？
f*r
10 楼
RSI不适用于有大的强烈趋势的股票，比如JCP 你不知道吗
【在 f*********9 的大作中提到】
: JCP从九月底就一直处于oversold的状态RSI小于30，短期内有回到RSI30以上的强大压
: 力，target price 7.57，then RSI will move above 30.所以短期内（或许就在明天
: ）一个10%的反弹是可以期待的。
【在 f*********9 的大作中提到】
: JCP从九月底就一直处于oversold的状态RSI小于30，短期内有回到RSI30以上的强大压
: 力，target price 7.57，then RSI will move above 30.所以短期内（或许就在明天
: ）一个10%的反弹是可以期待的。
f*9
11 楼
适不适用，明天就知道了，TA总的来说就是一种对未来的猜测和估计，没有完全准，也
没有完全不可能的事。
【在 f*********r 的大作中提到】
: RSI不适用于有大的强烈趋势的股票，比如JCP 你不知道吗
没有完全不可能的事。
【在 f*********r 的大作中提到】
: RSI不适用于有大的强烈趋势的股票，比如JCP 你不知道吗
c*y
12 楼
多学学再来说吧。
每天return是0，RSI是多少？ 50
【在 f*********9 的大作中提到】
: JCP从九月底就一直处于oversold的状态RSI小于30，短期内有回到RSI30以上的强大压
: 力，target price 7.57，then RSI will move above 30.所以短期内（或许就在明天
: ）一个10%的反弹是可以期待的。
每天return是0，RSI是多少？ 50
【在 f*********9 的大作中提到】
: JCP从九月底就一直处于oversold的状态RSI小于30，短期内有回到RSI30以上的强大压
: 力，target price 7.57，then RSI will move above 30.所以短期内（或许就在明天
: ）一个10%的反弹是可以期待的。
o*g
13 楼
短期应该有short squeeze,否则烧的人太轻松点
【在 f*********9 的大作中提到】
: JCP从九月底就一直处于oversold的状态RSI小于30，短期内有回到RSI30以上的强大压
: 力，target price 7.57，then RSI will move above 30.所以短期内（或许就在明天
: ）一个10%的反弹是可以期待的。
【在 f*********9 的大作中提到】
: JCP从九月底就一直处于oversold的状态RSI小于30，短期内有回到RSI30以上的强大压
: 力，target price 7.57，then RSI will move above 30.所以短期内（或许就在明天
: ）一个10%的反弹是可以期待的。
f*9
14 楼
等着看吧，我只是说了未来走势的一种可能（机会大些）而已，当然也有别的可能。
【在 c*******y 的大作中提到】
: 多学学再来说吧。
: 每天return是0，RSI是多少？ 50
【在 c*******y 的大作中提到】
: 多学学再来说吧。
: 每天return是0，RSI是多少？ 50
q*9
15 楼
这种股票显然不是TA定价的，MM占大部门。后悔当时小赚的时候没跑掉。
c*y
16 楼
so? 你的逻辑是错的.
RSI<30, so RSI will raise, so 10% in JCP is likely.
推理两步都有问题。
【在 f*********9 的大作中提到】
: 等着看吧，我只是说了未来走势的一种可能（机会大些）而已，当然也有别的可能。
RSI<30, so RSI will raise, so 10% in JCP is likely.
推理两步都有问题。
【在 f*********9 的大作中提到】
: 等着看吧，我只是说了未来走势的一种可能（机会大些）而已，当然也有别的可能。
f*9
17 楼
RSI理论有它存在的道理，绝大多数（当然有例外）的股票走势从概率论角度来说都会
遵从，否侧它也不会成为理论，RSI>70和<30都是不稳定的，回到稳定区间(buyer and
seller最稳定的当然是50/50)是大势所趋。7.57只是回到>30的最小值，当然也可能直
接回到50,涨20%也不是不可能。RSI回到30以上的可能性比其他的可能大些。
【在 c*******y 的大作中提到】
: so? 你的逻辑是错的.
: RSI<30, so RSI will raise, so 10% in JCP is likely.
: 推理两步都有问题。
遵从，否侧它也不会成为理论，RSI>70和<30都是不稳定的，回到稳定区间(buyer and
seller最稳定的当然是50/50)是大势所趋。7.57只是回到>30的最小值，当然也可能直
接回到50,涨20%也不是不可能。RSI回到30以上的可能性比其他的可能大些。
【在 c*******y 的大作中提到】
: so? 你的逻辑是错的.
: RSI<30, so RSI will raise, so 10% in JCP is likely.
: 推理两步都有问题。
c*y
18 楼
你就自说自话吧，我从没否定RSI有它存在的道理。
只是给你举了个反例，说明你根本没理解RSI而已。
and
【在 f*********9 的大作中提到】
: RSI理论有它存在的道理，绝大多数（当然有例外）的股票走势从概率论角度来说都会
: 遵从，否侧它也不会成为理论，RSI>70和<30都是不稳定的，回到稳定区间(buyer and
: seller最稳定的当然是50/50)是大势所趋。7.57只是回到>30的最小值，当然也可能直
: 接回到50,涨20%也不是不可能。RSI回到30以上的可能性比其他的可能大些。
只是给你举了个反例，说明你根本没理解RSI而已。
and
【在 f*********9 的大作中提到】
: RSI理论有它存在的道理，绝大多数（当然有例外）的股票走势从概率论角度来说都会
: 遵从，否侧它也不会成为理论，RSI>70和<30都是不稳定的，回到稳定区间(buyer and
: seller最稳定的当然是50/50)是大势所趋。7.57只是回到>30的最小值，当然也可能直
: 接回到50,涨20%也不是不可能。RSI回到30以上的可能性比其他的可能大些。
E*r
19 楼
一直等，一直没出现
【在 o*****g 的大作中提到】
: 短期应该有short squeeze,否则烧的人太轻松点
【在 o*****g 的大作中提到】
: 短期应该有short squeeze,否则烧的人太轻松点
f*9
20 楼
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/JCP/tab/8
看完后，你告诉我什么时候会出现。
【在 E*********r 的大作中提到】
: 一直等，一直没出现
看完后，你告诉我什么时候会出现。
【在 E*********r 的大作中提到】
: 一直等，一直没出现
m*u
21 楼
涨10%这种分析没有价值
关键是说什么时候涨10%
否则你不知道入点，还是照样先亏废掉，再涨10%有毛用
关键是说什么时候涨10%
否则你不知道入点，还是照样先亏废掉，再涨10%有毛用
E*r
22 楼
这种就是废话！你要能猜到，就每天在家数钱都数不过来，还用得着上古板了灌水？
【在 m*****u 的大作中提到】
: 涨10%这种分析没有价值
: 关键是说什么时候涨10%
: 否则你不知道入点，还是照样先亏废掉，再涨10%有毛用
【在 m*****u 的大作中提到】
: 涨10%这种分析没有价值
: 关键是说什么时候涨10%
: 否则你不知道入点，还是照样先亏废掉，再涨10%有毛用
N*d
23 楼
short squeeze不会在底部出现的，因为一般人肯定在相对高的位置short的，然后等股
价跌，很少有人一路追烧的。
【在 f*********9 的大作中提到】
: http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/JCP/tab/8
: 看完后，你告诉我什么时候会出现。
价跌，很少有人一路追烧的。
【在 f*********9 的大作中提到】
: http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/JCP/tab/8
: 看完后，你告诉我什么时候会出现。
E*r
24 楼
除非是庄，上周五就是搞些下三滥的无中生有的东西来打压股价，
【在 N*****d 的大作中提到】
: short squeeze不会在底部出现的，因为一般人肯定在相对高的位置short的，然后等股
: 价跌，很少有人一路追烧的。
【在 N*****d 的大作中提到】
: short squeeze不会在底部出现的，因为一般人肯定在相对高的位置short的，然后等股
: 价跌，很少有人一路追烧的。
f*9
25 楼
JCP's offering of 84 million common shares is the right thing to do for
shareholders. As of August 3, 2013 JCP holds $1.5 billion in cash and cash
equivalents on its balance sheet which equates to $6.95 per share. JCP's
share price currently stands at $7.00 implying that JCP's market
capitalization consists nearly 100% of cash held on hand.
shareholders. As of August 3, 2013 JCP holds $1.5 billion in cash and cash
equivalents on its balance sheet which equates to $6.95 per share. JCP's
share price currently stands at $7.00 implying that JCP's market
capitalization consists nearly 100% of cash held on hand.
m*u
26 楼
现在6.8了，是多少percent cash held on hand？
【在 f*********9 的大作中提到】
: JCP's offering of 84 million common shares is the right thing to do for
: shareholders. As of August 3, 2013 JCP holds $1.5 billion in cash and cash
: equivalents on its balance sheet which equates to $6.95 per share. JCP's
: share price currently stands at $7.00 implying that JCP's market
: capitalization consists nearly 100% of cash held on hand.
【在 f*********9 的大作中提到】
: JCP's offering of 84 million common shares is the right thing to do for
: shareholders. As of August 3, 2013 JCP holds $1.5 billion in cash and cash
: equivalents on its balance sheet which equates to $6.95 per share. JCP's
: share price currently stands at $7.00 implying that JCP's market
: capitalization consists nearly 100% of cash held on hand.
f*9
27 楼
偶的预测回到7.5左右，整整晚了一个礼拜啊。
S*P
28 楼
系统需要改进
【在 f*********9 的大作中提到】
: 偶的预测回到7.5左右，整整晚了一个礼拜啊。
【在 f*********9 的大作中提到】
: 偶的预测回到7.5左右，整整晚了一个礼拜啊。
f*9
29 楼
是MM太强了，完全不按牌理出牌。
【在 S*P 的大作中提到】
: 系统需要改进
【在 S*P 的大作中提到】
: 系统需要改进
b*u
30 楼
有水平
【在 f*********9 的大作中提到】
: 是MM太强了，完全不按牌理出牌。
【在 f*********9 的大作中提到】
: 是MM太强了，完全不按牌理出牌。
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