转我在seekingalpha上写的关于XIN的分析文章# Stock
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初来乍到，大家多多指教
Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. develops residential real estate properties
for middle-income consumers, primarily focusing on selected Tier II cities
in China. We followed this company for sometime because of its low PE and
dividend. Recently two questions came up about XIN.
First, how many shares does it have and how severe have its earning drops
been?
On Nov. 3, 2013, the earning report of the third quarter of 2013 states that
the company used 73.5 million shares to compute earning per share for its
profit of $28.7 million, so its earning per share is $0.39. The problem is
when the private equity firm TPG invested in XIN, it gets 19% of the company
through 18.6 million shares (ADR). Dividing 18.6 million by .19 gives you
98 million shares, which is also shown on the Bloomberg web site. So its
third quarter earned only $0.29 per share instead of $0.39 as they reported.
It is a 34% drop from its third quarter 2012 earning of $0.44 per share
instead of 11%.
The company forecasts the fourth quarter of earning to be $20 to $30 million
. With 98 million shares, it will earn $0.20 to $0.30 per share. Using mid
point of $0.25 per share, its earnings will drop 46% from their forth
quarter of 2012 of $0.47. The amazing thing is that for a NYSE listed
company, they can not count correctly how many shares they have.
Second, is the sequence of events in XIN a coincidence?
8/26/2013 TPG announces its investment of $108 million
9/11/2013 Kevin Wei appointed as CFO
9/19/2013 TPG placement closed
10/1/2013 XIN announced split its CEO and Chairman positions
11/1/2013 XIN registered to sell TPG share (F-3 filing)
11/14/2013 CFO Kevin Wei resigned
11/15/2013 Sell TPG share in effect (from SEC)
You can make your own conclusion from those of events.
Recently XIN issued a $200 million bond at 13.25% and a $200 million bond at
13%, each with a highly speculative credit rating of B+, to buy land. What
happens to the money it made during the recent China real estate boom? With
interest expense of $13 million per quarter and its deteriorating earnings,
XIN could possibly lose money during some quarters in 2014. If that happens,
its share price will be adjusted downward and its dividend will be in
trouble.
初来乍到，大家多多指教
Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. develops residential real estate properties
for middle-income consumers, primarily focusing on selected Tier II cities
in China. We followed this company for sometime because of its low PE and
dividend. Recently two questions came up about XIN.
First, how many shares does it have and how severe have its earning drops
been?
On Nov. 3, 2013, the earning report of the third quarter of 2013 states that
the company used 73.5 million shares to compute earning per share for its
profit of $28.7 million, so its earning per share is $0.39. The problem is
when the private equity firm TPG invested in XIN, it gets 19% of the company
through 18.6 million shares (ADR). Dividing 18.6 million by .19 gives you
98 million shares, which is also shown on the Bloomberg web site. So its
third quarter earned only $0.29 per share instead of $0.39 as they reported.
It is a 34% drop from its third quarter 2012 earning of $0.44 per share
instead of 11%.
The company forecasts the fourth quarter of earning to be $20 to $30 million
. With 98 million shares, it will earn $0.20 to $0.30 per share. Using mid
point of $0.25 per share, its earnings will drop 46% from their forth
quarter of 2012 of $0.47. The amazing thing is that for a NYSE listed
company, they can not count correctly how many shares they have.
Second, is the sequence of events in XIN a coincidence?
8/26/2013 TPG announces its investment of $108 million
9/11/2013 Kevin Wei appointed as CFO
9/19/2013 TPG placement closed
10/1/2013 XIN announced split its CEO and Chairman positions
11/1/2013 XIN registered to sell TPG share (F-3 filing)
11/14/2013 CFO Kevin Wei resigned
11/15/2013 Sell TPG share in effect (from SEC)
You can make your own conclusion from those of events.
Recently XIN issued a $200 million bond at 13.25% and a $200 million bond at
13%, each with a highly speculative credit rating of B+, to buy land. What
happens to the money it made during the recent China real estate boom? With
interest expense of $13 million per quarter and its deteriorating earnings,
XIN could possibly lose money during some quarters in 2014. If that happens,
its share price will be adjusted downward and its dividend will be in
trouble.
