Why fertilizer producers may see natural gas prices above $5/MMBtu# Stock
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Expected export boom not an imminent threat
Since an excepted U.S. natural gas export boom is estimated to occur five to
ten years down the road, shares of CF, AGU, POT, and TNH aren’t likely to
be affected for a couple of quarters or years. This is because investors
these days don’t usually look into the future for more than a few quarters
to a year and a half.
World LNG PricesEnlarge Graph
However, it’s still wise to know where natural gas prices may move, so that
investors are mentally prepared. Emotion is perhaps the most important
factor that affects investors’ performance. Being prepared can reduce your
likelihood of making irrational decisions.
World LNG prices are attractive
According to Cheniere Energy Inc.’s (a publicly traded LNG company) recent
presentation, current U.S. natural gas prices are extremely cheap compared
to world LNG prices. LNG prices are roughly 11% to 15% of oil prices today.
As oil prices are much expected to stay around $100 per barrel due to
surging production in the United States and OPEC’s efforts to keep prices
high in order to maintain profits, we may estimate that global LNG prices
will likely stay constant.
U.S. natural gas prices to rise
Cheniere’s pricing structure uses 115% of natural gas spot prices in the
United States to derive the LNG cost. Further costs to liquefy natural gas
and ship it to Asia is estimated at $6.5 per MMBtu (million British thermal
units). If LNG prices remain at $15 per MMbtu, natural gas prices in the
United States could rise to $7 per MMbtu and still remain competitive (7 * 1
.15 + 6.5 = $14.55 per MMBtu).
However, the “security premium” that insures buyers’ supply of LNG will
likely vanish amid a more competitive global LNG market. This means $7 per
MMbtu could be the ceiling. Still, natural gas prices between $5 and $6 per
MMBtu will remain attractive to LNG exporters, as it’s approximately 44%
higher than 2013′s average spot price.
Two to three years can go by quickly
A significant U.S. export boom may arrive about seven years down the road.
But Cheniere will be ready to start exporting larger amounts from 2016. So
we may begin to see the expectation of higher natural gas priced into stocks
and ETFs like CF Industries Holdings (CF), Potash Corp. (POT), Agrium Inc.
(AGU), Terra Nitrogen Company (TNH), and the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF
(MOO) in 2015.
Since an excepted U.S. natural gas export boom is estimated to occur five to
ten years down the road, shares of CF, AGU, POT, and TNH aren’t likely to
be affected for a couple of quarters or years. This is because investors
these days don’t usually look into the future for more than a few quarters
to a year and a half.
World LNG PricesEnlarge Graph
However, it’s still wise to know where natural gas prices may move, so that
investors are mentally prepared. Emotion is perhaps the most important
factor that affects investors’ performance. Being prepared can reduce your
likelihood of making irrational decisions.
World LNG prices are attractive
According to Cheniere Energy Inc.’s (a publicly traded LNG company) recent
presentation, current U.S. natural gas prices are extremely cheap compared
to world LNG prices. LNG prices are roughly 11% to 15% of oil prices today.
As oil prices are much expected to stay around $100 per barrel due to
surging production in the United States and OPEC’s efforts to keep prices
high in order to maintain profits, we may estimate that global LNG prices
will likely stay constant.
U.S. natural gas prices to rise
Cheniere’s pricing structure uses 115% of natural gas spot prices in the
United States to derive the LNG cost. Further costs to liquefy natural gas
and ship it to Asia is estimated at $6.5 per MMBtu (million British thermal
units). If LNG prices remain at $15 per MMbtu, natural gas prices in the
United States could rise to $7 per MMbtu and still remain competitive (7 * 1
.15 + 6.5 = $14.55 per MMBtu).
However, the “security premium” that insures buyers’ supply of LNG will
likely vanish amid a more competitive global LNG market. This means $7 per
MMbtu could be the ceiling. Still, natural gas prices between $5 and $6 per
MMBtu will remain attractive to LNG exporters, as it’s approximately 44%
higher than 2013′s average spot price.
Two to three years can go by quickly
A significant U.S. export boom may arrive about seven years down the road.
But Cheniere will be ready to start exporting larger amounts from 2016. So
we may begin to see the expectation of higher natural gas priced into stocks
and ETFs like CF Industries Holdings (CF), Potash Corp. (POT), Agrium Inc.
(AGU), Terra Nitrogen Company (TNH), and the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF
(MOO) in 2015.
