高盛每日晨报 4/3# Stock
a*2
1 楼
微信公众平台 USOPTIONS
Stocks in Asia were mixed Thursday as markets appear to be treading water
ahead of today's ECB meeting statement and tomorrow's US March Payrolls
report - two important events for gauging the trajectory of growth and
policy in the developed world. Stocks in Japan continue to enjoy a modest
rebound on the back of a steadily weakening yen (now ￥104.0/$). In Europe
this morning, stocks have barely budged and across asset classes we can also
see more of a desire to wait than engage in risk assets so far today. The
yield on 10-year Treasuries is holding steady at 2.80% and commodities
futures markets are relatively benign. Ahead of today's ECB meeting, Robin
Brooks sets the tone for the euro in Monday's "Global Markets Daily: EUR/$
into the upcoming ECB."
Focus on China. One of the characteristics of what many traders describe as
"violent moves" underneath the covers of markets in March was a rally in
China stocks that many did not see coming. Our economists actually lowered
our growth forecast for China 1Q GDP growth to 5.0% in March - a pace well
below the policy makers' target of 7.5% growth for all of 2014 (see Li Cui's
March 20th "Asia in Focus" note). Yet China stocks rallied sharply off lows
. And in two notes this morning - "Rebound in 2Q; hopes for reform," and "2Q
China view: Recovery rally, style switch," our strategists update our views
on both the A- and H- shares. For the more accessible H-share markets, Ben
Bei believes conditions for a tradeable rebound are taking shape as 2Q GDP
growth should accelerate off of an easy comp and pro-growth policies plus
valuations remain attractive. In the local-facing A-shares, Chenjie Liu cuts
our end-2Q CSI300 index target by more than 15% to 2380 but still sees
strong return potential (+10%) as the macro backdrop improves despite
ongoing reform initiatives. Finally and tangentially, Goohoon Kwon dives
into the export exposure of EM countries to China following its recent GDP
slowdown in "EM Macro Daily - Exposure of Asian EM to China is much less
than you might think."
Leverage and Defaults. Charles Himmelberg and our credit strategy team
attempt to answer the question which also forms the title of their report: "
Will rising leverage drive more defaults?" Our analysis of the interaction
of leverage and GDP growth reveals that an environment of higher leverage
makes defaults more sensitive to the business cycle. Although leverage has
clearly risen in recent years, our preferred metrics still print at the
lower end of their distribution implying a benign outlook for defaults in
the near term.
Performance of global indices
As of April 03, 2014
Source: Reuters
Looking Ahead: We get the weekly jobless claims report today for another
glimpse at the labor market. We also get the Non-manufacturing (Services)
ISM survey for March as well as a February trade report. In Europe, the ECB
meets (see Robin Brooks' FX implications ahead of the meeting in "EUR/$ into
the upcoming ECB").
Today's Events:
08:30 am - Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 am - Trade Balance - Feb
10:00 am - ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey - Mar
US Morning Call for April 03, 2014:
Financials, Ramsden / Burke / Nash: Financials Spring CL-eaning - Focus on 3
Cs.
We lean into three key themes to optimize alpha across Financials in 2014: a
commercial real estate (CRE) rebound (VNO, BX, STI), a consumer recovery (
DFS, COF, SPG), and selective exposure to capital markets (LAZ, BX). For
value hunters, focus on: ALL, MET, MTG, and BX. Separately, we remove EXR
and FRC from CL-Buy but remain Buy and downgrade USB to Neutral on less
exposure to these themes and more limited upside.
Retail views, Fassler: If it's weather, stocks likely to make up ground;
where to focus.
Retail stocks have underperformed on the back of the slowest month for
retail growth since the Lehman Crisis. Looking ahead, we continue to
forecast that better disposable income will drive higher retail sales. Buy:
ASNA, CRI, DG, DKS, DLTR, LL, PVH, RL, ROST, and VSI.
FelCor Lodging Trust (FCH, Buy), Kent: Meetings focus on asset sale progress
and debt pay-down; Buy FCH.
Reiterate Buy on FCH and raise 12-month price target to $10.25, as
management remains focused on non-core asset sales and leverage reduction,
and we see EBITDA upside from new “turnaround” property portfolio.
SMID Consumer Discretionary, Bari: Setting the stage for Spring | Buy CRI
for growth, ASNA for value.
Look for consumers to re-engage with select retailers this spring. Buy CRI
ahead of SG&A leverage as a new distribution center kicks in. Also, Buy ASNA
as we believe its Justice brand is on the mend as inventories are reduced,
seasonal importance diminishes and comparisons ease.
Pipelines and MLPs, Sherowski: LNG: 2014 analyst day preview.
Chenier disclosed a contract to supply LNG to Spanish utility Indesa – a
key catalyst for moving ahead with its Corpus Christi green-field facility.
Keep buying LNG and CQH into next week’s analyst day.
Notable Research not on the call:
Macro
•FX Views: The Strong US Dollar
•US Daily: The Role of Short-Term Unemployment for Fed Policy (Stehn)
•Brazil: Central Bank Hikes Selic by Another 25bp to 11.00% and Hints
Cycle May be Over
•The Credit Line: Will rising leverage drive more defaults?
•EM Macro Daily - Exposure of Asian EM to China is much less than you
might think
•China H-share Strategy: 2Q China view: Recovery rally, style switch
Consumer
•Prada SpA (1913.HK): FY14 results a touch below consensus,
expansionary 3yr plan; Buy
Healthcare
•Pharmaceuticals: Sell LLY, prefer MRK as key pipeline catalysts
approach
•Galapagos NV (GLPG.BR): The next stage of JAK evolution, initiate
with Buy
TMT
•Communications Technology: Takeaways from Interop: Positive for
Cisco, Gigamon
Conference Calls & Conferences:
•Today, April 3 @ 10 AM EDT – GS Research Industrials Thursday Conf
Call Series: “Outlook for the global OCC market (recycled boxes)” with
Bill Moore, President of Moore & Associates; hosted by Alex Ovshey; Dial-in:
973-528-0056; passcode: 135012; webcast link: http://www.visualwebcaster.com/event.asp?id=98720.
•April 4 @ 11 AM EDT – GS Research Energy Friday Conf Call Series:
“Haynesville Shale: Defining the geologic and financial opportunity” with
EXCO Resources’ Mark F. Mulhern (CFO), Harold H. Jameson (VP of Asset
Management) and Marcia R. Simpson (VP of Engineering); hosted by Brian
Singer; Dial-in: 973-528-0056; passcode: 624831.
Stocks in Asia were mixed Thursday as markets appear to be treading water
ahead of today's ECB meeting statement and tomorrow's US March Payrolls
report - two important events for gauging the trajectory of growth and
policy in the developed world. Stocks in Japan continue to enjoy a modest
rebound on the back of a steadily weakening yen (now ￥104.0/$). In Europe
this morning, stocks have barely budged and across asset classes we can also
see more of a desire to wait than engage in risk assets so far today. The
yield on 10-year Treasuries is holding steady at 2.80% and commodities
futures markets are relatively benign. Ahead of today's ECB meeting, Robin
Brooks sets the tone for the euro in Monday's "Global Markets Daily: EUR/$
into the upcoming ECB."
Focus on China. One of the characteristics of what many traders describe as
"violent moves" underneath the covers of markets in March was a rally in
China stocks that many did not see coming. Our economists actually lowered
our growth forecast for China 1Q GDP growth to 5.0% in March - a pace well
below the policy makers' target of 7.5% growth for all of 2014 (see Li Cui's
March 20th "Asia in Focus" note). Yet China stocks rallied sharply off lows
. And in two notes this morning - "Rebound in 2Q; hopes for reform," and "2Q
China view: Recovery rally, style switch," our strategists update our views
on both the A- and H- shares. For the more accessible H-share markets, Ben
Bei believes conditions for a tradeable rebound are taking shape as 2Q GDP
growth should accelerate off of an easy comp and pro-growth policies plus
valuations remain attractive. In the local-facing A-shares, Chenjie Liu cuts
our end-2Q CSI300 index target by more than 15% to 2380 but still sees
strong return potential (+10%) as the macro backdrop improves despite
ongoing reform initiatives. Finally and tangentially, Goohoon Kwon dives
into the export exposure of EM countries to China following its recent GDP
slowdown in "EM Macro Daily - Exposure of Asian EM to China is much less
than you might think."
Leverage and Defaults. Charles Himmelberg and our credit strategy team
attempt to answer the question which also forms the title of their report: "
Will rising leverage drive more defaults?" Our analysis of the interaction
of leverage and GDP growth reveals that an environment of higher leverage
makes defaults more sensitive to the business cycle. Although leverage has
clearly risen in recent years, our preferred metrics still print at the
lower end of their distribution implying a benign outlook for defaults in
the near term.
Performance of global indices
As of April 03, 2014
Source: Reuters
Looking Ahead: We get the weekly jobless claims report today for another
glimpse at the labor market. We also get the Non-manufacturing (Services)
ISM survey for March as well as a February trade report. In Europe, the ECB
meets (see Robin Brooks' FX implications ahead of the meeting in "EUR/$ into
the upcoming ECB").
Today's Events:
08:30 am - Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 am - Trade Balance - Feb
10:00 am - ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey - Mar
US Morning Call for April 03, 2014:
Financials, Ramsden / Burke / Nash: Financials Spring CL-eaning - Focus on 3
Cs.
We lean into three key themes to optimize alpha across Financials in 2014: a
commercial real estate (CRE) rebound (VNO, BX, STI), a consumer recovery (
DFS, COF, SPG), and selective exposure to capital markets (LAZ, BX). For
value hunters, focus on: ALL, MET, MTG, and BX. Separately, we remove EXR
and FRC from CL-Buy but remain Buy and downgrade USB to Neutral on less
exposure to these themes and more limited upside.
Retail views, Fassler: If it's weather, stocks likely to make up ground;
where to focus.
Retail stocks have underperformed on the back of the slowest month for
retail growth since the Lehman Crisis. Looking ahead, we continue to
forecast that better disposable income will drive higher retail sales. Buy:
ASNA, CRI, DG, DKS, DLTR, LL, PVH, RL, ROST, and VSI.
FelCor Lodging Trust (FCH, Buy), Kent: Meetings focus on asset sale progress
and debt pay-down; Buy FCH.
Reiterate Buy on FCH and raise 12-month price target to $10.25, as
management remains focused on non-core asset sales and leverage reduction,
and we see EBITDA upside from new “turnaround” property portfolio.
SMID Consumer Discretionary, Bari: Setting the stage for Spring | Buy CRI
for growth, ASNA for value.
Look for consumers to re-engage with select retailers this spring. Buy CRI
ahead of SG&A leverage as a new distribution center kicks in. Also, Buy ASNA
as we believe its Justice brand is on the mend as inventories are reduced,
seasonal importance diminishes and comparisons ease.
Pipelines and MLPs, Sherowski: LNG: 2014 analyst day preview.
Chenier disclosed a contract to supply LNG to Spanish utility Indesa – a
key catalyst for moving ahead with its Corpus Christi green-field facility.
Keep buying LNG and CQH into next week’s analyst day.
Notable Research not on the call:
Macro
•FX Views: The Strong US Dollar
•US Daily: The Role of Short-Term Unemployment for Fed Policy (Stehn)
•Brazil: Central Bank Hikes Selic by Another 25bp to 11.00% and Hints
Cycle May be Over
•The Credit Line: Will rising leverage drive more defaults?
•EM Macro Daily - Exposure of Asian EM to China is much less than you
might think
•China H-share Strategy: 2Q China view: Recovery rally, style switch
Consumer
•Prada SpA (1913.HK): FY14 results a touch below consensus,
expansionary 3yr plan; Buy
Healthcare
•Pharmaceuticals: Sell LLY, prefer MRK as key pipeline catalysts
approach
•Galapagos NV (GLPG.BR): The next stage of JAK evolution, initiate
with Buy
TMT
•Communications Technology: Takeaways from Interop: Positive for
Cisco, Gigamon
Conference Calls & Conferences:
•Today, April 3 @ 10 AM EDT – GS Research Industrials Thursday Conf
Call Series: “Outlook for the global OCC market (recycled boxes)” with
Bill Moore, President of Moore & Associates; hosted by Alex Ovshey; Dial-in:
973-528-0056; passcode: 135012; webcast link: http://www.visualwebcaster.com/event.asp?id=98720.
•April 4 @ 11 AM EDT – GS Research Energy Friday Conf Call Series:
“Haynesville Shale: Defining the geologic and financial opportunity” with
EXCO Resources’ Mark F. Mulhern (CFO), Harold H. Jameson (VP of Asset
Management) and Marcia R. Simpson (VP of Engineering); hosted by Brian
Singer; Dial-in: 973-528-0056; passcode: 624831.