高盛每日晨报 4/4# Stock
a*2
1 楼
微信公众平台 USOPTIONS
Stocks in Asia were mixed-to-slightly down Friday as investors are looking
through the more dovish tone from the ECB Thursday afternoon and appear to
be more pre-occupied with this morning's US March Payrolls report. China - a
country where both fundamentals and stock prices have arguably de-coupled
from the rest of the world - saw perhaps the most movement overnight with
the A shares up almost 1% (see Chenjie Liu's note from earlier in the week,
"China A-share Strategy - Rebound in 2Q; hopes for reform" for an update on
our view on stocks).
In Europe (where the ECB has a distinctly greater direct impact) stocks are
also little changed (albeit with a positive bias) to start the morning. On
the surface, the ECB did nothing yesterday, holding rates steady. But as
Francesco Garzarelli highlighted in a Thursday afternoon note, “Global
Market Views: Hedging Long EUR Credit with Short Bunds,” the ECB stressed
that it is ready to implement more aggressive unconventional measures (read:
QE) to combat deflation if necessary. Everything is data-dependent (when is
it ever not?) but the tone from Mr. Draghi in Thursday afternoon's
conference call may serve to have a similar effect on Europe's rates markets
as when the ECB governor made his now famous "whatever it takes" pledge in
the summer of 2012.
Payroll preview. Jan Hatzius and team forecast 200,000 net non-farm jobs
were added in March in the USA as they detail in "March Payrolls Preview."
Look also for the unemployment rate to fall 10 bp to 6.6% - in line with
consensus expectations. We view the reasonably solid February gain of 175,
000 despite extremely adverse weather conditions as providing some
confirmation that the underlying trend growth rate of payrolls remains solid
. And overall, we view the softer job gains seen this winter as a temporary
deviation from a still-strong trend. While weather conditions remained far
from normal in March, the improvement from last month should provide at
least some boost. As growth accelerates later in 2014, we expect the trend
rate of payrolls growth to rise to about 225,000 per month.
Time to pay the electric bill. Utilities have been the best performing
sector in the S&P 500 this year, up over 8% ytd. And in last night's "Power
Markets Monthly," Michael Lapides and team provide one of the contributing
factors: power prices are inflecting higher. On a ytd basis, forward power
prices for 2015 increased at least 4% (Texas/PJM NiHub) and up to 13% (NY
Zone A), partially driven by colder weather (especially in the Midwest and
Northeast regions) impacting forward natural gas/power prices. And we
believe upside may exist to our own natural gas price forecasts given
storage deficits and lack of a supply side response and see Buy-rated NRG
and CPN as beneficiaries. Additionally, weather-normal demand trends in
1Q2014 are encouraging.
Performance of global indices
As of April 04, 2014
Source: Reuters
Looking Ahead: The March Payrolls report at 8:30 AM today is the data point
of focus.
Today's Events:
08:30 am - Average Earnings - Feb
08:30 am - Civilian Unemployment Rate - Mar
08:30 am - Non-Farm Payroll Employment - Mar
08:30 am - Private Payrolls - Mar
US Morning Call for April 04, 2014:
US Thematic Views, Kaiser: Buyback stocks outperformed in 1Q; rebalancing
our portfolios.
Companies that buy back large portions of their shares and have high total
cash returns (dividends + buybacks) consistently outperform over time and
have done so again in 2014 ytd. We forecast S&P500 total buybacks to grow
23% to $587 bn this year and dividends to grow 20% to $375bn. Buy our
buyback portfolio.
Semiconductors, Covello: Why we do not like stock buybacks for Semi & SPE
companies.
We do not believe that Semis and SPE companies spending more cash on
buybacks is an effective capital allocation strategy given the tendency to
buy shares at their peak and when the semi cycle is peaking. We prefer cash
allocation through dividends or strategic M&A and particularly favor “
variable dividends.”
SaaS, Dunham: Pullback represents an opportunity; CL-Buy MKTO is top idea.
SaaS stocks are down 20%+ from mid-March highs as investors rotate out of
high-growth stocks. We see this as a buying opportunity as investor focus
should soon shift to 2015 – where our SaaS universe trades at 6.4X EV/Sales
– only a modest premium to its 6X historical average. Importantly, we
forecast that SaaS-based applications still have only a 5% share of the
overall software market. Top pick: MKTO (CL-Buy).
E&Ps, Singer/Stewart: Oklahoma trip: Resource/restructuring driving
execution, efficiency.
Takeaways from our trip this week: there is a strong focus by producers on
execution, improving resource bases in cores of shales, and limited
consideration for ramp-up in natural gas activity. Buy: CLR and GPOR. Still
Neutral on CHK but see room for momentum.
Oil Services, Syed: SMID oil services – additional upside seen despite run
up.
SMID oil services stocks should continue to outperform as service prices are
improving, company asset portfolios are higher quality than in the past,
and the market could get even tighter as rig counts grow. Buy: PTEN (on CL),
NBR, CJES, RES, PES and BAS.
Notable Research not on the call:
Macro
•US Daily: March Payrolls Preview (Mericle)
•European Views: ECB opens the door to QE
•GOAL: Profit Pathology: A macro investor’s guide to the European
profit cycle
•Japan Economics Analyst: We still see June-July critical for the BOJ
easing decision
Consumer
•Walgreen Company (WAG): Better SSS led by script beat; we expect
fundamentals to improve
•Rite Aid Corp. (RAD): March SSS should mark inflection – we like
set-up ahead of guidance
•Marks & Spencer (MKS.L): Not immune to escalating grocery
competition; add to CL-Sell
Energy
•NRG Energy Inc. (NRG): Raising price target after EME and Retail
acquisitions; CL-Buy
•Utilities: Power Markets Monthly – power prices for 2015 rallied
recently; further upside may exist
Financials
•Asset Managers: Money manager barometer: Long-dated inflows; Real
Estate on the rise
•Discount Brokers: The domino effect continues as investor focus
shifts to E-Brokers
TMT
•Micron Technology Inc. (MU): Solid report and guide; sustainability
of margins key for stock
Conference Calls & Conferences:
•Today @ 11 AM EDT – GS Research Energy Friday Conf Call Series: “
Haynesville Shale: Defining the geologic and financial opportunity” with
EXCO Resources’ Mark F. Mulhern (CFO), Harold H. Jameson (VP of Asset
Management) and Marcia R. Simpson (VP of Engineering); hosted by Brian
Singer; Dial-in: 973-528-0056; passcode: 624831.
•April 7 @ 10 AM EDT – GS Research Emerging Healthcare Conf Call
Series – “The Obesity and Diabetes Market” with GI Dynamics CEO Stu
Randle; hosted by David Roman; Dial-in: 973-528-0056; passcode: 441831.
webcast link: http://www.visualwebcaster.com/event.asp?id=98810.
Stocks in Asia were mixed-to-slightly down Friday as investors are looking
through the more dovish tone from the ECB Thursday afternoon and appear to
be more pre-occupied with this morning's US March Payrolls report. China - a
country where both fundamentals and stock prices have arguably de-coupled
from the rest of the world - saw perhaps the most movement overnight with
the A shares up almost 1% (see Chenjie Liu's note from earlier in the week,
"China A-share Strategy - Rebound in 2Q; hopes for reform" for an update on
our view on stocks).
In Europe (where the ECB has a distinctly greater direct impact) stocks are
also little changed (albeit with a positive bias) to start the morning. On
the surface, the ECB did nothing yesterday, holding rates steady. But as
Francesco Garzarelli highlighted in a Thursday afternoon note, “Global
Market Views: Hedging Long EUR Credit with Short Bunds,” the ECB stressed
that it is ready to implement more aggressive unconventional measures (read:
QE) to combat deflation if necessary. Everything is data-dependent (when is
it ever not?) but the tone from Mr. Draghi in Thursday afternoon's
conference call may serve to have a similar effect on Europe's rates markets
as when the ECB governor made his now famous "whatever it takes" pledge in
the summer of 2012.
Payroll preview. Jan Hatzius and team forecast 200,000 net non-farm jobs
were added in March in the USA as they detail in "March Payrolls Preview."
Look also for the unemployment rate to fall 10 bp to 6.6% - in line with
consensus expectations. We view the reasonably solid February gain of 175,
000 despite extremely adverse weather conditions as providing some
confirmation that the underlying trend growth rate of payrolls remains solid
. And overall, we view the softer job gains seen this winter as a temporary
deviation from a still-strong trend. While weather conditions remained far
from normal in March, the improvement from last month should provide at
least some boost. As growth accelerates later in 2014, we expect the trend
rate of payrolls growth to rise to about 225,000 per month.
Time to pay the electric bill. Utilities have been the best performing
sector in the S&P 500 this year, up over 8% ytd. And in last night's "Power
Markets Monthly," Michael Lapides and team provide one of the contributing
factors: power prices are inflecting higher. On a ytd basis, forward power
prices for 2015 increased at least 4% (Texas/PJM NiHub) and up to 13% (NY
Zone A), partially driven by colder weather (especially in the Midwest and
Northeast regions) impacting forward natural gas/power prices. And we
believe upside may exist to our own natural gas price forecasts given
storage deficits and lack of a supply side response and see Buy-rated NRG
and CPN as beneficiaries. Additionally, weather-normal demand trends in
1Q2014 are encouraging.
Performance of global indices
As of April 04, 2014
Source: Reuters
Looking Ahead: The March Payrolls report at 8:30 AM today is the data point
of focus.
Today's Events:
08:30 am - Average Earnings - Feb
08:30 am - Civilian Unemployment Rate - Mar
08:30 am - Non-Farm Payroll Employment - Mar
08:30 am - Private Payrolls - Mar
US Morning Call for April 04, 2014:
US Thematic Views, Kaiser: Buyback stocks outperformed in 1Q; rebalancing
our portfolios.
Companies that buy back large portions of their shares and have high total
cash returns (dividends + buybacks) consistently outperform over time and
have done so again in 2014 ytd. We forecast S&P500 total buybacks to grow
23% to $587 bn this year and dividends to grow 20% to $375bn. Buy our
buyback portfolio
Semiconductors, Covello: Why we do not like stock buybacks for Semi & SPE
companies.
We do not believe that Semis and SPE companies spending more cash on
buybacks is an effective capital allocation strategy given the tendency to
buy shares at their peak and when the semi cycle is peaking. We prefer cash
allocation through dividends or strategic M&A and particularly favor “
variable dividends.”
SaaS, Dunham: Pullback represents an opportunity; CL-Buy MKTO is top idea.
SaaS stocks are down 20%+ from mid-March highs as investors rotate out of
high-growth stocks. We see this as a buying opportunity as investor focus
should soon shift to 2015 – where our SaaS universe trades at 6.4X EV/Sales
– only a modest premium to its 6X historical average. Importantly, we
forecast that SaaS-based applications still have only a 5% share of the
overall software market. Top pick: MKTO (CL-Buy).
E&Ps, Singer/Stewart: Oklahoma trip: Resource/restructuring driving
execution, efficiency.
Takeaways from our trip this week: there is a strong focus by producers on
execution, improving resource bases in cores of shales, and limited
consideration for ramp-up in natural gas activity. Buy: CLR and GPOR. Still
Neutral on CHK but see room for momentum.
Oil Services, Syed: SMID oil services – additional upside seen despite run
up.
SMID oil services stocks should continue to outperform as service prices are
improving, company asset portfolios are higher quality than in the past,
and the market could get even tighter as rig counts grow. Buy: PTEN (on CL),
NBR, CJES, RES, PES and BAS.
Notable Research not on the call:
Macro
•US Daily: March Payrolls Preview (Mericle)
•European Views: ECB opens the door to QE
•GOAL: Profit Pathology: A macro investor’s guide to the European
profit cycle
•Japan Economics Analyst: We still see June-July critical for the BOJ
easing decision
Consumer
•Walgreen Company (WAG): Better SSS led by script beat; we expect
fundamentals to improve
•Rite Aid Corp. (RAD): March SSS should mark inflection – we like
set-up ahead of guidance
•Marks & Spencer (MKS.L): Not immune to escalating grocery
competition; add to CL-Sell
Energy
•NRG Energy Inc. (NRG): Raising price target after EME and Retail
acquisitions; CL-Buy
•Utilities: Power Markets Monthly – power prices for 2015 rallied
recently; further upside may exist
Financials
•Asset Managers: Money manager barometer: Long-dated inflows; Real
Estate on the rise
•Discount Brokers: The domino effect continues as investor focus
shifts to E-Brokers
TMT
•Micron Technology Inc. (MU): Solid report and guide; sustainability
of margins key for stock
Conference Calls & Conferences:
•Today @ 11 AM EDT – GS Research Energy Friday Conf Call Series: “
Haynesville Shale: Defining the geologic and financial opportunity” with
EXCO Resources’ Mark F. Mulhern (CFO), Harold H. Jameson (VP of Asset
Management) and Marcia R. Simpson (VP of Engineering); hosted by Brian
Singer; Dial-in: 973-528-0056; passcode: 624831.
•April 7 @ 10 AM EDT – GS Research Emerging Healthcare Conf Call
Series – “The Obesity and Diabetes Market” with GI Dynamics CEO Stu
Randle; hosted by David Roman; Dial-in: 973-528-0056; passcode: 441831.
webcast link: http://www.visualwebcaster.com/event.asp?id=98810.