还是说几句大盘# Stock
L*n
1 楼
先声明一下， personal view only. don't represent anybody else, or any
organization. don't attempt to be the only, the best, or the fool proof
blindly follow strategy. I whole heartedly, cordially invite the best, the
never lost or the genius to share their view and criticize - ideally in a
forward looking fashion rather in a hind sight.
大盘(SPX)现在已经从最初的valuation focused sell off扩大成broad market sell
off. A correction is set in. This correction comes after a sustained 30%
rally of 2013 and a 10% run in early 2014 that features most of the typical
technical sign of a late market surge. So i think this correction will be a
solid 10% correction from the high. i see the end of this correction would
most likely lies on the the 50wma around 174. the probability of breaking
down below 50wma is slim at this point, but still exit - if the market sees
this weakness of economy growth as sustain, rather than temporory issue such
as weather, or the fed turn out to be hawk rather than dove as the market
hopes for, or China goes into a melt down, etc. needless to say, a bear
run is exceeding difficult to trade, simply because it don't go straight
down. the rebound will be vicious and forceful. but i'll be extremely
cautious in chasing the rebound - unless it meet a certain criteria - i'll
explain a bit more as to what kind of technical criteria i'll be look out
for next.
at what stage the market would most likely mount a rebound: SPX broke down
20ma on a markedly increased volume, the next support is the trend line of
the lows of recent correction, i.e. 155 in Jun 13, 164.5 in Oct 13, 173 in
Feb 14. which point to about 178. Let me give a forewarn, however, most of
the lost in a correction comes from picking the bottom of a bear run - at
least from my personal experience. It's perfectly fine to sit and wait for
the bottom to go past. - being able to go away is a benefit of retail
investor. well, how to tell the bottom has passed? The latest sign is of
course, a new high. that's well pass the low point, but safest. a bit
earlier would be a higher low, it comes also well after the actual bottom,
but it's quite safe. Even earlier would be rising above key resistant on
surging volume, that's not very reliable and take a comprehensive reading of
the market sentiment. failure rate is quite high. There are also a few
hints as to picking the low but i think they are not reliable enough to use
regularly. People interested in doing that are mostly seasoned trader and
won't be reading my post anyway. so i wouldn't discuss here.
anyway, to sum it up, i think this is a correction, not a reversal. the
range of correction is 10% or above. the key point to look out for is 50wma
at 174. rebound could be profitable but the direction is trade toward cash -
take some profit meanwhile take some lost to increase cash holding. avoid
double down trying to recoup lost. and avoid picking the bottom of a bear
run. it's often better to sit in cash until the bottom is well past.
lastly, I reserve the sole exclusive right for explanation.
organization. don't attempt to be the only, the best, or the fool proof
blindly follow strategy. I whole heartedly, cordially invite the best, the
never lost or the genius to share their view and criticize - ideally in a
forward looking fashion rather in a hind sight.
大盘(SPX)现在已经从最初的valuation focused sell off扩大成broad market sell
off. A correction is set in. This correction comes after a sustained 30%
rally of 2013 and a 10% run in early 2014 that features most of the typical
technical sign of a late market surge. So i think this correction will be a
solid 10% correction from the high. i see the end of this correction would
most likely lies on the the 50wma around 174. the probability of breaking
down below 50wma is slim at this point, but still exit - if the market sees
this weakness of economy growth as sustain, rather than temporory issue such
as weather, or the fed turn out to be hawk rather than dove as the market
hopes for, or China goes into a melt down, etc. needless to say, a bear
run is exceeding difficult to trade, simply because it don't go straight
down. the rebound will be vicious and forceful. but i'll be extremely
cautious in chasing the rebound - unless it meet a certain criteria - i'll
explain a bit more as to what kind of technical criteria i'll be look out
for next.
at what stage the market would most likely mount a rebound: SPX broke down
20ma on a markedly increased volume, the next support is the trend line of
the lows of recent correction, i.e. 155 in Jun 13, 164.5 in Oct 13, 173 in
Feb 14. which point to about 178. Let me give a forewarn, however, most of
the lost in a correction comes from picking the bottom of a bear run - at
least from my personal experience. It's perfectly fine to sit and wait for
the bottom to go past. - being able to go away is a benefit of retail
investor. well, how to tell the bottom has passed? The latest sign is of
course, a new high. that's well pass the low point, but safest. a bit
earlier would be a higher low, it comes also well after the actual bottom,
but it's quite safe. Even earlier would be rising above key resistant on
surging volume, that's not very reliable and take a comprehensive reading of
the market sentiment. failure rate is quite high. There are also a few
hints as to picking the low but i think they are not reliable enough to use
regularly. People interested in doing that are mostly seasoned trader and
won't be reading my post anyway. so i wouldn't discuss here.
anyway, to sum it up, i think this is a correction, not a reversal. the
range of correction is 10% or above. the key point to look out for is 50wma
at 174. rebound could be profitable but the direction is trade toward cash -
take some profit meanwhile take some lost to increase cash holding. avoid
double down trying to recoup lost. and avoid picking the bottom of a bear
run. it's often better to sit in cash until the bottom is well past.
lastly, I reserve the sole exclusive right for explanation.
