这儿有人关心美国国债利息和MBS的么？# Stock
m*a
1 楼
谈谈趋势吧，
这半年10年国债从3%到2.5%太处于意外了。
MBS也大涨。
后半年10年回到3%，3.5%，还是在2.6%左右？
赚钱就靠这个了。
这半年10年国债从3%到2.5%太处于意外了。
MBS也大涨。
后半年10年回到3%，3.5%，还是在2.6%左右？
赚钱就靠这个了。
u*e
2 楼
你的观点呢？
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: 谈谈趋势吧，
: 这半年10年国债从3%到2.5%太处于意外了。
: MBS也大涨。
: 后半年10年回到3%，3.5%，还是在2.6%左右？
: 赚钱就靠这个了。
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: 谈谈趋势吧，
: 这半年10年国债从3%到2.5%太处于意外了。
: MBS也大涨。
: 后半年10年回到3%，3.5%，还是在2.6%左右？
: 赚钱就靠这个了。
m*a
3 楼
上半年炒了AGNC，从18.95一直吃到23.85，中间还低买高卖买卖几回，额为赚了2快不
错。
错。
u*e
4 楼
Good trade
You bought it at 18.95 according to your TA analysis?
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: 上半年炒了AGNC，从18.95一直吃到23.85，中间还低买高卖买卖几回，额为赚了2快不
: 错。
You bought it at 18.95 according to your TA analysis?
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: 上半年炒了AGNC，从18.95一直吃到23.85，中间还低买高卖买卖几回，额为赚了2快不
: 错。
u*e
5 楼
I lost some money on the interest rate bet since I thought it would not go
down too much
It's crazy to see the interest rate so low now :)
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: 上半年炒了AGNC，从18.95一直吃到23.85，中间还低买高卖买卖几回，额为赚了2快不
: 错。
down too much
It's crazy to see the interest rate so low now :)
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: 上半年炒了AGNC，从18.95一直吃到23.85，中间还低买高卖买卖几回，额为赚了2快不
: 错。
p*e
6 楼
my model indicate that 10 yr shld be at 1.5% now. and with a sudden rush to
limited supply, it may dive to 1-1.25%. but i wont bet on it. i'll just put
stock and buy jpy for the next 6 mths whenever possible
limited supply, it may dive to 1-1.25%. but i wont bet on it. i'll just put
stock and buy jpy for the next 6 mths whenever possible
O*l
7 楼
除非什么玩意崩盘 要不然不可能
to
put
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: my model indicate that 10 yr shld be at 1.5% now. and with a sudden rush to
: limited supply, it may dive to 1-1.25%. but i wont bet on it. i'll just put
: stock and buy jpy for the next 6 mths whenever possible
to
put
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: my model indicate that 10 yr shld be at 1.5% now. and with a sudden rush to
: limited supply, it may dive to 1-1.25%. but i wont bet on it. i'll just put
: stock and buy jpy for the next 6 mths whenever possible
u*e
8 楼
For what reasons?
Global recession?
to
put
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: my model indicate that 10 yr shld be at 1.5% now. and with a sudden rush to
: limited supply, it may dive to 1-1.25%. but i wont bet on it. i'll just put
: stock and buy jpy for the next 6 mths whenever possible
Global recession?
to
put
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: my model indicate that 10 yr shld be at 1.5% now. and with a sudden rush to
: limited supply, it may dive to 1-1.25%. but i wont bet on it. i'll just put
: stock and buy jpy for the next 6 mths whenever possible
a*s
9 楼
回到3.5%的话，怎么操作？
AGNC之类的都不能买了
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: 谈谈趋势吧，
: 这半年10年国债从3%到2.5%太处于意外了。
: MBS也大涨。
: 后半年10年回到3%，3.5%，还是在2.6%左右？
: 赚钱就靠这个了。
AGNC之类的都不能买了
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: 谈谈趋势吧，
: 这半年10年国债从3%到2.5%太处于意外了。
: MBS也大涨。
: 后半年10年回到3%，3.5%，还是在2.6%左右？
: 赚钱就靠这个了。
c*y
10 楼
to
put
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: my model indicate that 10 yr shld be at 1.5% now. and with a sudden rush to
: limited supply, it may dive to 1-1.25%. but i wont bet on it. i'll just put
: stock and buy jpy for the next 6 mths whenever possible
p*e
11 楼
ya, but the main reason is the level of fed's holding. even with the taper,
the holding wont get lower and may get higher as interest income is
reinvested. there's just aint much supply out there.
we dont need to get a global recession, we just need a risk of global
recession to get pple to rush to treasury. and there just aint much issuance
to come.
however, i wont bet on it cuz it will probably just be temporary. and there'
s always chance that at a crazy prize. soverign holder may just step in and
take profit.
again, it's better to put stock and buy jpy.
【在 u********e 的大作中提到】
: For what reasons?
: Global recession?
:
: to
: put
the holding wont get lower and may get higher as interest income is
reinvested. there's just aint much supply out there.
we dont need to get a global recession, we just need a risk of global
recession to get pple to rush to treasury. and there just aint much issuance
to come.
however, i wont bet on it cuz it will probably just be temporary. and there'
s always chance that at a crazy prize. soverign holder may just step in and
take profit.
again, it's better to put stock and buy jpy.
【在 u********e 的大作中提到】
: For what reasons?
: Global recession?
:
: to
: put
O*l
12 楼
不对吧 fed的interest 是直接返还财政部的
,
issuance
there'
and
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: ya, but the main reason is the level of fed's holding. even with the taper,
: the holding wont get lower and may get higher as interest income is
: reinvested. there's just aint much supply out there.
: we dont need to get a global recession, we just need a risk of global
: recession to get pple to rush to treasury. and there just aint much issuance
: to come.
: however, i wont bet on it cuz it will probably just be temporary. and there'
: s always chance that at a crazy prize. soverign holder may just step in and
: take profit.
: again, it's better to put stock and buy jpy.
,
issuance
there'
and
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: ya, but the main reason is the level of fed's holding. even with the taper,
: the holding wont get lower and may get higher as interest income is
: reinvested. there's just aint much supply out there.
: we dont need to get a global recession, we just need a risk of global
: recession to get pple to rush to treasury. and there just aint much issuance
: to come.
: however, i wont bet on it cuz it will probably just be temporary. and there'
: s always chance that at a crazy prize. soverign holder may just step in and
: take profit.
: again, it's better to put stock and buy jpy.
p*e
13 楼
well, ok, but the principal payment will be reinvest, and with qe still
ongoing, FED's holding will only increase and not decrease.
【在 O**l 的大作中提到】
: 不对吧 fed的interest 是直接返还财政部的
:
: ,
: issuance
: there'
: and
ongoing, FED's holding will only increase and not decrease.
【在 O**l 的大作中提到】
: 不对吧 fed的interest 是直接返还财政部的
:
: ,
: issuance
: there'
: and
m*a
14 楼
yes. I bought when 10 year at 3%。I saw huge resistance of 10 year at 3.5%.
You could look at the 10 year ^TNX chart.
At that time, AGNC trade at 20% discount to book value.
With one year interest income of 10%, AGNC was traded at 30% discount to the
value at the 2014 year end。
I reasoned that if rate did increased to 3.5% that most guru predicted, AGNC
would drop book value another 10%. To lose money, the rate would have to
increase to 4.5% at the end 2014 .
Right now, 2.5% is the very important support levels. The rate will go
higher from here, if there is no another taper in the book. Again look at
the TNX chart.
With tapering going on, it is unlikely now.
You could look at the 10 year ^TNX chart.
At that time, AGNC trade at 20% discount to book value.
With one year interest income of 10%, AGNC was traded at 30% discount to the
value at the 2014 year end。
I reasoned that if rate did increased to 3.5% that most guru predicted, AGNC
would drop book value another 10%. To lose money, the rate would have to
increase to 4.5% at the end 2014 .
Right now, 2.5% is the very important support levels. The rate will go
higher from here, if there is no another taper in the book. Again look at
the TNX chart.
With tapering going on, it is unlikely now.
m*a
15 楼
3.5%是一个非常重要的resistance，这个时候可以赌一把，这个不会破，然后利率会跌
倒3%，至少一二次这样的调整，可以吃一段低买高卖。
【在 a*****s 的大作中提到】
: 回到3.5%的话，怎么操作？
: AGNC之类的都不能买了
倒3%，至少一二次这样的调整，可以吃一段低买高卖。
【在 a*****s 的大作中提到】
: 回到3.5%的话，怎么操作？
: AGNC之类的都不能买了
m*a
16 楼
what model are you talking about?
2.47% 10 year rate has been tested 3 times in the past year and it hold
every time.
It is very difficult to breach this level. This is why I SOLD AGNC.
I don't wishful thinking that a disaster will happen or FED will stop
tapering--->this will cause rate to drop to 1.5% levels.
to
put
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: my model indicate that 10 yr shld be at 1.5% now. and with a sudden rush to
: limited supply, it may dive to 1-1.25%. but i wont bet on it. i'll just put
: stock and buy jpy for the next 6 mths whenever possible
2.47% 10 year rate has been tested 3 times in the past year and it hold
every time.
It is very difficult to breach this level. This is why I SOLD AGNC.
I don't wishful thinking that a disaster will happen or FED will stop
tapering--->this will cause rate to drop to 1.5% levels.
to
put
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: my model indicate that 10 yr shld be at 1.5% now. and with a sudden rush to
: limited supply, it may dive to 1-1.25%. but i wont bet on it. i'll just put
: stock and buy jpy for the next 6 mths whenever possible
s*i
17 楼
FED不存在啥principal的问题，钱是FED印出来的，不需要reinvest，直接destroy了就
行了。FED holding increase does not mean interest rate will go down. 超过QE
的部分的利率就不是FED能控制的了。
有一点是对的，美债需求大于供给，是导致利率下跌的原因，但需求不是来自FED。
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: well, ok, but the principal payment will be reinvest, and with qe still
: ongoing, FED's holding will only increase and not decrease.
行了。FED holding increase does not mean interest rate will go down. 超过QE
的部分的利率就不是FED能控制的了。
有一点是对的，美债需求大于供给，是导致利率下跌的原因，但需求不是来自FED。
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: well, ok, but the principal payment will be reinvest, and with qe still
: ongoing, FED's holding will only increase and not decrease.
p*e
18 楼
nah, taper or no taper dont matter, just the amt they hold and reinveting
and maintaining that level is enough to justify yield at 1.5%. unless
inflation expectation run away.
that said, i still dont like betting on this cuz there's just so many non-
profit seeking players. way too much iffy in this mkt.
i prefer yet again, put stock buy jpy.
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: what model are you talking about?
: 2.47% 10 year rate has been tested 3 times in the past year and it hold
: every time.
: It is very difficult to breach this level. This is why I SOLD AGNC.
: I don't wishful thinking that a disaster will happen or FED will stop
: tapering--->this will cause rate to drop to 1.5% levels.
:
: to
: put
and maintaining that level is enough to justify yield at 1.5%. unless
inflation expectation run away.
that said, i still dont like betting on this cuz there's just so many non-
profit seeking players. way too much iffy in this mkt.
i prefer yet again, put stock buy jpy.
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: what model are you talking about?
: 2.47% 10 year rate has been tested 3 times in the past year and it hold
: every time.
: It is very difficult to breach this level. This is why I SOLD AGNC.
: I don't wishful thinking that a disaster will happen or FED will stop
: tapering--->this will cause rate to drop to 1.5% levels.
:
: to
: put
p*e
19 楼
dont think u know what u r talikng about.
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】
: FED不存在啥principal的问题，钱是FED印出来的，不需要reinvest，直接destroy了就
: 行了。FED holding increase does not mean interest rate will go down. 超过QE
: 的部分的利率就不是FED能控制的了。
: 有一点是对的，美债需求大于供给，是导致利率下跌的原因，但需求不是来自FED。
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】
: FED不存在啥principal的问题，钱是FED印出来的，不需要reinvest，直接destroy了就
: 行了。FED holding increase does not mean interest rate will go down. 超过QE
: 的部分的利率就不是FED能控制的了。
: 有一点是对的，美债需求大于供给，是导致利率下跌的原因，但需求不是来自FED。
j*5
20 楼
wrong, 钱是FED's computer generated.
钱 will not be destroyed.
QE
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】
: FED不存在啥principal的问题，钱是FED印出来的，不需要reinvest，直接destroy了就
: 行了。FED holding increase does not mean interest rate will go down. 超过QE
: 的部分的利率就不是FED能控制的了。
: 有一点是对的，美债需求大于供给，是导致利率下跌的原因，但需求不是来自FED。
钱 will not be destroyed.
QE
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】
: FED不存在啥principal的问题，钱是FED印出来的，不需要reinvest，直接destroy了就
: 行了。FED holding increase does not mean interest rate will go down. 超过QE
: 的部分的利率就不是FED能控制的了。
: 有一点是对的，美债需求大于供给，是导致利率下跌的原因，但需求不是来自FED。
m*a
21 楼
This is not entirely correct.
Right now, interest payment and prepayment for Bonds held by FED is re-
invested into new bonds. In the future, these payment will be destroyed,
which is called winding down of FED holding. Money created can be destroyed
by FED this way.
【在 j*****5 的大作中提到】
: wrong, 钱是FED's computer generated.
: 钱 will not be destroyed.
:
: QE
Right now, interest payment and prepayment for Bonds held by FED is re-
invested into new bonds. In the future, these payment will be destroyed,
which is called winding down of FED holding. Money created can be destroyed
by FED this way.
【在 j*****5 的大作中提到】
: wrong, 钱是FED's computer generated.
: 钱 will not be destroyed.
:
: QE
s*i
22 楼
http://corporate.troweprice.com/html/content/home/about/perspec
Step 2: The Fed Stops Reinvesting Proceeds From Its Holdings (Second Half of
2014, Possibly Later)
At present, the Fed acts to prevent passive shrinkage of its securities
portfolio by reinvesting principal payments from its maturing holdings of
agency debt and agency MBS into agency MBS and by rolling over maturing
Treasury securities at auction. Once the Fed is finished with its large
asset purchases around mid-2014, the central bank is likely to stop
reinvesting some, if not all, of its principal payments from maturing
securities. However, this step-which would represent reduced monetary
accommodation from the Fed-could be deferred until after the Fed's first
interest rate increase.
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: dont think u know what u r talikng about.
Step 2: The Fed Stops Reinvesting Proceeds From Its Holdings (Second Half of
2014, Possibly Later)
At present, the Fed acts to prevent passive shrinkage of its securities
portfolio by reinvesting principal payments from its maturing holdings of
agency debt and agency MBS into agency MBS and by rolling over maturing
Treasury securities at auction. Once the Fed is finished with its large
asset purchases around mid-2014, the central bank is likely to stop
reinvesting some, if not all, of its principal payments from maturing
securities. However, this step-which would represent reduced monetary
accommodation from the Fed-could be deferred until after the Fed's first
interest rate increase.
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: dont think u know what u r talikng about.
j*5
23 楼
In theory they can, but in reality they can't.
Inflation will be here to stay.
destroyed
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: This is not entirely correct.
: Right now, interest payment and prepayment for Bonds held by FED is re-
: invested into new bonds. In the future, these payment will be destroyed,
: which is called winding down of FED holding. Money created can be destroyed
: by FED this way.
Inflation will be here to stay.
destroyed
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: This is not entirely correct.
: Right now, interest payment and prepayment for Bonds held by FED is re-
: invested into new bonds. In the future, these payment will be destroyed,
: which is called winding down of FED holding. Money created can be destroyed
: by FED this way.
u*e
24 楼
Thanks for sharing
Great reasoning and great trade.
That's the best topic in Stock board today!
Mark
.
the
AGNC
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: yes. I bought when 10 year at 3%。I saw huge resistance of 10 year at 3.5%.
: You could look at the 10 year ^TNX chart.
: At that time, AGNC trade at 20% discount to book value.
: With one year interest income of 10%, AGNC was traded at 30% discount to the
: value at the 2014 year end。
: I reasoned that if rate did increased to 3.5% that most guru predicted, AGNC
: would drop book value another 10%. To lose money, the rate would have to
: increase to 4.5% at the end 2014 .
: Right now, 2.5% is the very important support levels. The rate will go
: higher from here, if there is no another taper in the book. Again look at
Great reasoning and great trade.
That's the best topic in Stock board today!
Mark
.
the
AGNC
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: yes. I bought when 10 year at 3%。I saw huge resistance of 10 year at 3.5%.
: You could look at the 10 year ^TNX chart.
: At that time, AGNC trade at 20% discount to book value.
: With one year interest income of 10%, AGNC was traded at 30% discount to the
: value at the 2014 year end。
: I reasoned that if rate did increased to 3.5% that most guru predicted, AGNC
: would drop book value another 10%. To lose money, the rate would have to
: increase to 4.5% at the end 2014 .
: Right now, 2.5% is the very important support levels. The rate will go
: higher from here, if there is no another taper in the book. Again look at
u*e
25 楼
I agree with you
2.5% is the support level because Fed wants the inflation rate to be 2%, the
rate would probably go higher from here
.
the
AGNC
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: yes. I bought when 10 year at 3%。I saw huge resistance of 10 year at 3.5%.
: You could look at the 10 year ^TNX chart.
: At that time, AGNC trade at 20% discount to book value.
: With one year interest income of 10%, AGNC was traded at 30% discount to the
: value at the 2014 year end。
: I reasoned that if rate did increased to 3.5% that most guru predicted, AGNC
: would drop book value another 10%. To lose money, the rate would have to
: increase to 4.5% at the end 2014 .
: Right now, 2.5% is the very important support levels. The rate will go
: higher from here, if there is no another taper in the book. Again look at
2.5% is the support level because Fed wants the inflation rate to be 2%, the
rate would probably go higher from here
.
the
AGNC
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: yes. I bought when 10 year at 3%。I saw huge resistance of 10 year at 3.5%.
: You could look at the 10 year ^TNX chart.
: At that time, AGNC trade at 20% discount to book value.
: With one year interest income of 10%, AGNC was traded at 30% discount to the
: value at the 2014 year end。
: I reasoned that if rate did increased to 3.5% that most guru predicted, AGNC
: would drop book value another 10%. To lose money, the rate would have to
: increase to 4.5% at the end 2014 .
: Right now, 2.5% is the very important support levels. The rate will go
: higher from here, if there is no another taper in the book. Again look at
s*i
26 楼
inflation是因为以前印的比今后destroy的多得多。而不是因为FED不能destroy钱。
【在 j*****5 的大作中提到】
: In theory they can, but in reality they can't.
: Inflation will be here to stay.
:
: destroyed
【在 j*****5 的大作中提到】
: In theory they can, but in reality they can't.
: Inflation will be here to stay.
:
: destroyed
j*5
27 楼
create more and destroy less, means net create more.
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】
: inflation是因为以前印的比今后destroy的多得多。而不是因为FED不能destroy钱。
【在 s********i 的大作中提到】
: inflation是因为以前印的比今后destroy的多得多。而不是因为FED不能destroy钱。
s*i
28 楼
时机不同啊，以前印钱利率下降，以后destroy钱利率上升，这是投资者关心的。而不
是说总体net create more了，以后利率还是下降的。
【在 j*****5 的大作中提到】
: create more and destroy less, means net create more.
是说总体net create more了，以后利率还是下降的。
【在 j*****5 的大作中提到】
: create more and destroy less, means net create more.
c*y
29 楼
proceeds要不要reinvest还在debate，这个hawk阵营当然不希望如此，我在2.6附近
short到今天，几乎一进去就赚钱，为啥yield连创新低，我有自己的一套说法，说出来
怕贻笑大方。这个确实冒出来无数说法，还有说这是new normal的。long yield的阵营
扎堆，yield我觉得上不去多少。
destroyed
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: This is not entirely correct.
: Right now, interest payment and prepayment for Bonds held by FED is re-
: invested into new bonds. In the future, these payment will be destroyed,
: which is called winding down of FED holding. Money created can be destroyed
: by FED this way.
short到今天，几乎一进去就赚钱，为啥yield连创新低，我有自己的一套说法，说出来
怕贻笑大方。这个确实冒出来无数说法，还有说这是new normal的。long yield的阵营
扎堆，yield我觉得上不去多少。
destroyed
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: This is not entirely correct.
: Right now, interest payment and prepayment for Bonds held by FED is re-
: invested into new bonds. In the future, these payment will be destroyed,
: which is called winding down of FED holding. Money created can be destroyed
: by FED this way.
c*g
30 楼
说吧，说错了算村长的。
【在 c*******y 的大作中提到】
: proceeds要不要reinvest还在debate，这个hawk阵营当然不希望如此，我在2.6附近
: short到今天，几乎一进去就赚钱，为啥yield连创新低，我有自己的一套说法，说出来
: 怕贻笑大方。这个确实冒出来无数说法，还有说这是new normal的。long yield的阵营
: 扎堆，yield我觉得上不去多少。
:
: destroyed
m*a
31 楼
啥新奇的想法都有可能。new normal我是不太信的
五月底有不少instution 的买家买入bonds,导致2.47的关键点位破了。
这有导致在2.47不少的bond short squeeze, squeeze 到了2.40，搞笑啊。
大家都以为破了支撑，但是现在有快速拉回。
你的意思是还会在2.6-2.8这一代调整？
那就是买入MBS的机会马上又要到了。
【在 c*******y 的大作中提到】
: proceeds要不要reinvest还在debate，这个hawk阵营当然不希望如此，我在2.6附近
: short到今天，几乎一进去就赚钱，为啥yield连创新低，我有自己的一套说法，说出来
: 怕贻笑大方。这个确实冒出来无数说法，还有说这是new normal的。long yield的阵营
: 扎堆，yield我觉得上不去多少。
:
: destroyed
五月底有不少instution 的买家买入bonds,导致2.47的关键点位破了。
这有导致在2.47不少的bond short squeeze, squeeze 到了2.40，搞笑啊。
大家都以为破了支撑，但是现在有快速拉回。
你的意思是还会在2.6-2.8这一代调整？
那就是买入MBS的机会马上又要到了。
【在 c*******y 的大作中提到】
: proceeds要不要reinvest还在debate，这个hawk阵营当然不希望如此，我在2.6附近
: short到今天，几乎一进去就赚钱，为啥yield连创新低，我有自己的一套说法，说出来
: 怕贻笑大方。这个确实冒出来无数说法，还有说这是new normal的。long yield的阵营
: 扎堆，yield我觉得上不去多少。
:
: destroyed
d*0
32 楼
你这些帖子太有料了。。。。
bond 买家不是本来就是大买家居多？
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: 啥新奇的想法都有可能。new normal我是不太信的
: 五月底有不少instution 的买家买入bonds,导致2.47的关键点位破了。
: 这有导致在2.47不少的bond short squeeze, squeeze 到了2.40，搞笑啊。
: 大家都以为破了支撑，但是现在有快速拉回。
: 你的意思是还会在2.6-2.8这一代调整？
: 那就是买入MBS的机会马上又要到了。
bond 买家不是本来就是大买家居多？
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: 啥新奇的想法都有可能。new normal我是不太信的
: 五月底有不少instution 的买家买入bonds,导致2.47的关键点位破了。
: 这有导致在2.47不少的bond short squeeze, squeeze 到了2.40，搞笑啊。
: 大家都以为破了支撑，但是现在有快速拉回。
: 你的意思是还会在2.6-2.8这一代调整？
: 那就是买入MBS的机会马上又要到了。
m*a
33 楼
是指新的position。
不是传统如保险公司，银行的capital reserve的需求。
而是新的pension fund, hedge fund月底大量买入导致的。
【在 d**********0 的大作中提到】
: 你这些帖子太有料了。。。。
: bond 买家不是本来就是大买家居多？
不是传统如保险公司，银行的capital reserve的需求。
而是新的pension fund, hedge fund月底大量买入导致的。
【在 d**********0 的大作中提到】
: 你这些帖子太有料了。。。。
: bond 买家不是本来就是大买家居多？
o*o
34 楼
欧洲如果QE，美债大涨，大家都学乖了
看去年10年国债是怎么干到1.5的
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 8.7
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: 是指新的position。
: 不是传统如保险公司，银行的capital reserve的需求。
: 而是新的pension fund, hedge fund月底大量买入导致的。
看去年10年国债是怎么干到1.5的
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 8.7
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: 是指新的position。
: 不是传统如保险公司，银行的capital reserve的需求。
: 而是新的pension fund, hedge fund月底大量买入导致的。
s*i
35 楼
我的想法是几个可能的原因共同作用的结果：1。stock all-time-high的负面效应，新
钱进来进债市多过股市，2。stock all-time-high导致很多人解套，重新balance
portfolio，股市现有的钱会有一部分到债市。3。baby boomer退休越来越多，也会调
整portfolio。4。sell-in-may stock profit taking后进入债市。
如果经济没有明显起色，这种现象还会持续一段时间，今后利率走向，还要看FED
taper的力度和制造inflation的能力，比如提高最低工资，其实就是在人为的制造通货
膨胀。
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: 是指新的position。
: 不是传统如保险公司，银行的capital reserve的需求。
: 而是新的pension fund, hedge fund月底大量买入导致的。
钱进来进债市多过股市，2。stock all-time-high导致很多人解套，重新balance
portfolio，股市现有的钱会有一部分到债市。3。baby boomer退休越来越多，也会调
整portfolio。4。sell-in-may stock profit taking后进入债市。
如果经济没有明显起色，这种现象还会持续一段时间，今后利率走向，还要看FED
taper的力度和制造inflation的能力，比如提高最低工资，其实就是在人为的制造通货
膨胀。
【在 m*********a 的大作中提到】
: 是指新的position。
: 不是传统如保险公司，银行的capital reserve的需求。
: 而是新的pension fund, hedge fund月底大量买入导致的。
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