PWE 基本面分析。 - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

PWE 基本面分析。# Stock

a*12014-10-09 07:10

1 楼

Fundamental speaking, over supply of oil is the current trend. OPEC has no
control over the price of oil as US E&P are increasing production YOY. The
only way OPEC can make a meaningful impact is to increase production, thus
reducing price to force some of the high cost oil production company out of
business.
The the reasonable target is to set the price at $60 and last for a year or
two. Since the breakeven price for most of the shale company is around $80,
the world supply will start to balance after that. US government has no
intention to intervene as lower oil price will hit Russia even harder.
Just look at the natural gas from 2008, when NG was at $12. The breakeven
point was at $6 and the price dropped to $1.92 in 2012. After many years,
the breakeven point is around $3-4 and we are barely above water.
I believe in PWE management, but the most important thing is the book value
and oil reserve which is about twice the current stock price. The book value
was based upon the oil price north of $92 and probably will be zero when
oil price at some where near $60.
Everybody has his own interpretation of settlement of oil price. But the
question is can they survive the next dramatic price drop for several years.
At the current price, PWE is barely breaking even. Another 5 point drop
will force them to cut dividend (or keep selling asset to keep dividend, but
selling the asset will be deep discount). At below 80, CAPEX will be
significantly cut and production will have to drop which will begin the
vicious cycle....
Had they hedged for 2015 and part of 2016, they will have enough time to
turnaournd, but now, time is not on their side. The only thing works for
them is the currency.

t*j2014-10-09 07:10

2 楼

你上周买的还在吗？

a*12014-10-09 07:10

3 楼

发信人: able101 (able101), 信区: Stock
标题: Re: 均价8块的2000股PWE怎么办？
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Oct 9 09:06:06 2014, 美东)
大牛都不割肉的吗？
我在5.75 开割，-10%.
我每次一割就涨，很灵的。

t*j2014-10-09 07:10

4 楼

你的分析很好，这里有个问题，北美天然气是个相对封闭的市场，所以shale gas大规
模冲击市场时是能打到很低。石油是global市场，现在大概oversupply 1mmboe/day,稍
微几个大的比如沙特俄罗斯伊朗操纵下就能稳住价格的。但现在背后的庄家是美国加
沙特，他们准备打到多少就需要研究了。

x*n2014-10-09 07:10

5 楼

不要恐慌，仓位不要大。有分红吃。ＢＯＯＫ　ＶＡＬＵＥ在油价为60的时候为零，这
是个笑话。。。

t*j2014-10-09 07:10

6 楼

如果油价真的去了60并且盘整一年，able101的分析是对的。现在的问题是油价会不会
这附近就稳住。
不过能源股跌的是有点预示油价要去70的架势。

【在 x***n 的大作中提到】

: 不要恐慌，仓位不要大。有分红吃。ＢＯＯＫ　ＶＡＬＵＥ在油价为60的时候为零，这
: 是个笑话。。。

t*j2014-10-09 07:10

7 楼

仔细研究了下，油最差底部在80左右，可能这里就是底的。不过接下来两年油价也不
bullish,80-100range . 60不太可能，除非经济危机。

p*r2014-10-09 07:10

8 楼

able101 分析的很好。
Bloomberg 有片文章提到这个。
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-07/shale-boom-tested-as-s
OPEC also may prevent further declines because members need high prices to
support social spending. Saudi Arabia needs $87.63 a barrel to balance its
budget, compared with $66.50 for the United Arab Emirates and $92.96 for
Iraq, the International Monetary Fund estimates.
实际上 oil 在 $80 时，很多都赚不了钱了。那时美国的shale oil 肯定不赚钱。
美国的 shale oil 就得老老实实减产。在这个价位卖油的话，美国也是等于自杀，因
为美国本身没有很多储存。

t*j2014-10-09 07:10

9 楼

shale oil成本大部分在70-80，所以over exteneded, 油到70+很可能。

a*t2014-10-09 07:10

10 楼

谢谢评论，引申开去，是不是石油能源股都将低迷一段时间？那么太阳能等清洁能源在
中期内也会受压制？

t*j2014-10-09 07:10

11 楼

石油是能源的领头大哥，老大倒了，天然气肯定不死不活，煤炭就死了，
太阳能，清洁能源连煤炭都不如，能源什么都低了搞那些花哨的干嘛？

【在 a*******t 的大作中提到】

: 谢谢评论，引申开去，是不是石油能源股都将低迷一段时间？那么太阳能等清洁能源在
: 中期内也会受压制？

a*12014-10-09 07:10

12 楼

It does not have to be as dramatic as natural gas, But how about only half
the swing?
My assumption of 60 is based upon 40% drop from the top, while NG did
dropped more than 80% from the top. Right now at 86, we are still at the top
of the range. Remember oil price as recent as 2008 was in the 30s.
I agree that reasonable oil price need to be around 80 to be balance. But it
always take some dramatic move before settle down. Right now the natural
gas is almost balanced, but that was after the long painful struggle.
In the case of PWE, the management is good, but I don't like the fact that
they did not hedge. It is almost the replay of CHK for Natural gas. Just
when Aubrey Mcclendon stopped the hegding, the NG price crashed. CHK price
was as high as 70 right before 2008 and went down to as low as 13. It has
huge reserve and has BV more than the pps (familiar?). CHK was lucky not
bankrupt.
History never repeats itself but it rhymes.---Mark Twain.

【在 t***j 的大作中提到】

: 你的分析很好，这里有个问题，北美天然气是个相对封闭的市场，所以shale gas大规
: 模冲击市场时是能打到很低。石油是global市场，现在大概oversupply 1mmboe/day,稍
: 微几个大的比如沙特俄罗斯伊朗操纵下就能稳住价格的。但现在背后的庄家是美国加
: 沙特，他们准备打到多少就需要研究了。

t*j2014-10-09 07:10

13 楼

CHK is the case I studied too, CHK doesnot bankrupt is because some big HF
guys stepped in and save CHK. If not, I guess we will see CHK asset being
sold and price goes to zero.
2008 case is a financials disaster, you cannot use that case as price
reference. But Oil goes to 60-70 range and stays there fore 1-2 years will
kill those small players definitely, bigger one like XOM/CVX/CNQ will be
fine in long run and maybe going much higher.

top
it

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: It does not have to be as dramatic as natural gas, But how about only half
: the swing?
: My assumption of 60 is based upon 40% drop from the top, while NG did
: dropped more than 80% from the top. Right now at 86, we are still at the top
: of the range. Remember oil price as recent as 2008 was in the 30s.
: I agree that reasonable oil price need to be around 80 to be balance. But it
: always take some dramatic move before settle down. Right now the natural
: gas is almost balanced, but that was after the long painful struggle.
: In the case of PWE, the management is good, but I don't like the fact that
: they did not hedge. It is almost the replay of CHK for Natural gas. Just

a*t2014-10-09 07:10

14 楼

清洁能源跟石油类煤类的区别是，这是各国特别是美国政客为显示政绩的一个炒作概念
，在将来的几年内美国还有什么概念可以炒作？我觉得受到打击最严重的将是电车。

【在 t***j 的大作中提到】

: 石油是能源的领头大哥，老大倒了，天然气肯定不死不活，煤炭就死了，
: 太阳能，清洁能源连煤炭都不如，能源什么都低了搞那些花哨的干嘛？

a*12014-10-09 07:10

15 楼

Short TSLA, maybe that is a good idea.

【在 a*******t 的大作中提到】

: 清洁能源跟石油类煤类的区别是，这是各国特别是美国政客为显示政绩的一个炒作概念
: ，在将来的几年内美国还有什么概念可以炒作？我觉得受到打击最严重的将是电车。

t*j2014-10-09 07:10

16 楼

有钱的时候可以花些来显示政绩，现在德国都衰退了，日本也是，欧洲就沦陷了。
没钱的时候你出去吃饭吗？2008的时候太阳能的补贴可是一再cut

【在 a*******t 的大作中提到】

: 清洁能源跟石油类煤类的区别是，这是各国特别是美国政客为显示政绩的一个炒作概念
: ，在将来的几年内美国还有什么概念可以炒作？我觉得受到打击最严重的将是电车。

a*t2014-10-09 07:10

17 楼

有道理有道理，你是觉得美国经济又走到头了？
恕我无知，如果欧洲低迷，热钱会不会继续流回美国？还是该流的已经都流完了？

【在 t***j 的大作中提到】

: 有钱的时候可以花些来显示政绩，现在德国都衰退了，日本也是，欧洲就沦陷了。
: 没钱的时候你出去吃饭吗？2008的时候太阳能的补贴可是一再cut

a*12014-10-09 07:10

18 楼

I agree financial crisis is not going to happen again this time around. But
what kills CHK at the time was not about financial crisis, it was the price
of natural gas and oil price.
The good news here is that PWE has been cutting debt and shrinking capex and
head count. That certainly will help extending the life line here. CHK was
caught swimming naked at the time, PWE was just ready to put on something.
Asset sale in the next several weeks will be the determine factor. We shall
see.

【在 t***j 的大作中提到】

: CHK is the case I studied too, CHK doesnot bankrupt is because some big HF
: guys stepped in and save CHK. If not, I guess we will see CHK asset being
: sold and price goes to zero.
: 2008 case is a financials disaster, you cannot use that case as price
: reference. But Oil goes to 60-70 range and stays there fore 1-2 years will
: kill those small players definitely, bigger one like XOM/CVX/CNQ will be
: fine in long run and maybe going much higher.
:
: top
: it

t*j2014-10-09 07:10

19 楼

热钱回流有3个地方，一是欧洲，二是亚洲，三是中东。
已经回流2-3年了，所以美股股市牛的一塌糊涂。
现在1继续衰退，2开始加速衰退，3油价大跌，热钱会少很多。所以美股我猜2000点会
是多年的顶了。
当然10年后肯定会突破，但不是我们现在讨论的事情。

【在 a*******t 的大作中提到】

: 有道理有道理，你是觉得美国经济又走到头了？
: 恕我无知，如果欧洲低迷，热钱会不会继续流回美国？还是该流的已经都流完了？

a*t2014-10-09 07:10

20 楼

谢谢，这个分析非常靠谱。现在股市piaji的话，对世界经济有什么影响呢？比2008年
更恐怖吧？

【在 t***j 的大作中提到】

: 热钱回流有3个地方，一是欧洲，二是亚洲，三是中东。
: 已经回流2-3年了，所以美股股市牛的一塌糊涂。
: 现在1继续衰退，2开始加速衰退，3油价大跌，热钱会少很多。所以美股我猜2000点会
: 是多年的顶了。
: 当然10年后肯定会突破，但不是我们现在讨论的事情。

t*j2014-10-09 07:10

21 楼

things are changed too fast, I believe when PWE negotiate with partner to
sell asset is about several months ago, at that time oil price is at 100$,
now the case are so much different. This kind of deal takes times to finish,
now WTI already in the 86, the deal maybe much smaller, if PWE donot sell
asset now, PWE will like CHK in naked swimming next two years since they
donot have hedge. Two years naked is enough to be killed. Asset still worth
some money, but shares maybe not.
If PWE sell their asset like Chevron Q2 or Q3, they will survive. But now,
things become tricky.

But
price
and
was
shall

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: I agree financial crisis is not going to happen again this time around. But
: what kills CHK at the time was not about financial crisis, it was the price
: of natural gas and oil price.
: The good news here is that PWE has been cutting debt and shrinking capex and
: head count. That certainly will help extending the life line here. CHK was
: caught swimming naked at the time, PWE was just ready to put on something.
: Asset sale in the next several weeks will be the determine factor. We shall
: see.

t*j2014-10-09 07:10

22 楼

矮子里面拔将军，美国仍然是最好的最棒的，其他地方就不知道了，一团mess一地鸡毛
是肯定的。

【在 a*******t 的大作中提到】

: 谢谢，这个分析非常靠谱。现在股市piaji的话，对世界经济有什么影响呢？比2008年
: 更恐怖吧？

a*12014-10-09 07:10

23 楼

Well said.

finish,
worth

【在 t***j 的大作中提到】

: things are changed too fast, I believe when PWE negotiate with partner to
: sell asset is about several months ago, at that time oil price is at 100$,
: now the case are so much different. This kind of deal takes times to finish,
: now WTI already in the 86, the deal maybe much smaller, if PWE donot sell
: asset now, PWE will like CHK in naked swimming next two years since they
: donot have hedge. Two years naked is enough to be killed. Asset still worth
: some money, but shares maybe not.
: If PWE sell their asset like Chevron Q2 or Q3, they will survive. But now,
: things become tricky.
:

a*12014-10-09 07:10

24 楼

Most of the small E&P companies are fully hedged this year, about 2/3 hedged
for 2015 and about 25% hedged for 2016. Examples are CHK, PGH and SD.
The fact that they all dropped the similar percentage as PWE suggesting that
hedging is not a fact here. That means market foresees the drop will go
beyond 2016 or the price will drop through the floor of three way collar. In
the later case, most of the floors were set around 70-75 dollar.
Either way it will be bloody. Back in 2008 the price dropped from the high
of 145 in July to the low of 35 in Dec, about a dollar per trading day for
100 days!!!
Again history never repeats but rhymes.

finish,
worth

【在 t***j 的大作中提到】

: things are changed too fast, I believe when PWE negotiate with partner to
: sell asset is about several months ago, at that time oil price is at 100$,
: now the case are so much different. This kind of deal takes times to finish,
: now WTI already in the 86, the deal maybe much smaller, if PWE donot sell
: asset now, PWE will like CHK in naked swimming next two years since they
: donot have hedge. Two years naked is enough to be killed. Asset still worth
: some money, but shares maybe not.
: If PWE sell their asset like Chevron Q2 or Q3, they will survive. But now,
: things become tricky.
:

p*a2014-10-09 07:10

25 楼

of
or
,

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: Fundamental speaking, over supply of oil is the current trend. OPEC has no
: control over the price of oil as US E&P are increasing production YOY. The
: only way OPEC can make a meaningful impact is to increase production, thus
: reducing price to force some of the high cost oil production company out of
: business.
: The the reasonable target is to set the price at $60 and last for a year or
: two. Since the breakeven price for most of the shale company is around $80,
: the world supply will start to balance after that. US government has no
: intention to intervene as lower oil price will hit Russia even harder.
: Just look at the natural gas from 2008, when NG was at $12. The breakeven

w*k2014-10-09 07:10

26 楼

分析很赞，尤其是楼主和toddj等人的。
有个问题我想不通，美国为什么通过石油价格作为武器来打击俄罗斯？美国自己产不少
油，有不少石油公司。这些公司的老板会放弃自己的利益让美国这样杀敌一千自损八百
的打压俄罗斯？这些人难道不是奥黑的金主？

r*m2014-10-09 07:10

27 楼

呵呵。
我觉得喜欢分析的人往往会走上“阴谋论”的道路。其实更大的可能就是简单的供需关
系决定了价格走向。在某个时间段内被交易强化放大，即使是大庄家也只能影响而不能
控制。

【在 w**k 的大作中提到】

: 分析很赞，尤其是楼主和toddj等人的。
: 有个问题我想不通，美国为什么通过石油价格作为武器来打击俄罗斯？美国自己产不少
: 油，有不少石油公司。这些公司的老板会放弃自己的利益让美国这样杀敌一千自损八百
: 的打压俄罗斯？这些人难道不是奥黑的金主？

w*k2014-10-09 07:10

28 楼

我也决定就是供求不平衡，也就是还是因为经济放缓的原因。

【在 r*m 的大作中提到】

: 呵呵。
: 我觉得喜欢分析的人往往会走上“阴谋论”的道路。其实更大的可能就是简单的供需关
: 系决定了价格走向。在某个时间段内被交易强化放大，即使是大庄家也只能影响而不能
: 控制。

p*r2014-10-09 07:10

29 楼

楼主的意思是中东某些国家想要通过价格战把 US oil shale drive out of business
or at least high cost E&P companies.
但实际最主要的是这石油到底有没有供大于求。
如果供远远大于求，那油价还是得跟着供求关系走。
可能美国这些年的 shale oil 的确是对世界石油的供求
关系产生很大的影响。

【在 w**k 的大作中提到】

: 分析很赞，尤其是楼主和toddj等人的。
: 有个问题我想不通，美国为什么通过石油价格作为武器来打击俄罗斯？美国自己产不少
: 油，有不少石油公司。这些公司的老板会放弃自己的利益让美国这样杀敌一千自损八百
: 的打压俄罗斯？这些人难道不是奥黑的金主？

g*22014-10-09 07:10

30 楼

首先，我觉得阴谋论的确不应该被放大。但是世界上有两种商品的价格是被操纵的特别
厉害的：黄金和石油。很多时候，你的确不能完全用供需关系来解释这两种商品的价格。

【在 r*m 的大作中提到】

: 呵呵。
: 我觉得喜欢分析的人往往会走上“阴谋论”的道路。其实更大的可能就是简单的供需关
: 系决定了价格走向。在某个时间段内被交易强化放大，即使是大庄家也只能影响而不能
: 控制。

b*d2014-10-09 07:10

31 楼

这个帖子系列太赞了。

of
or
,

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: Fundamental speaking, over supply of oil is the current trend. OPEC has no
: control over the price of oil as US E&P are increasing production YOY. The
: only way OPEC can make a meaningful impact is to increase production, thus
: reducing price to force some of the high cost oil production company out of
: business.
: The the reasonable target is to set the price at $60 and last for a year or
: two. Since the breakeven price for most of the shale company is around $80,
: the world supply will start to balance after that. US government has no
: intention to intervene as lower oil price will hit Russia even harder.
: Just look at the natural gas from 2008, when NG was at $12. The breakeven

a*12014-10-09 07:10

32 楼

大牛不想全割，也得割一部分。
The purpose is to stay alive.

x*n2014-10-09 07:10

33 楼

快到我的买入点了。觉得４.ＸＸ很快可以看到。慢慢买，不着急

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: 大牛不想全割，也得割一部分。
: The purpose is to stay alive.

a*12014-10-09 07:10

34 楼

zan 慢慢买，不着急!

【在 x***n 的大作中提到】

: 快到我的买入点了。觉得４.ＸＸ很快可以看到。慢慢买，不着急

w*m2014-10-09 07:10

35 楼

IMF刚调低了全球经济发展速度，欧洲再次停滞
亚洲更是糟糕，热钱都流到经济负增长的地方去了？
大盘虚高，华尔街人人皆知的事实，热钱不一定
非要去股市，WARREN BUFFET都在说房地产

a*12014-10-09 07:10

36 楼

大牛操低了吗？

【在 x***n 的大作中提到】

: 快到我的买入点了。觉得４.ＸＸ很快可以看到。慢慢买，不着急

x*n2014-10-09 07:10

37 楼

到了我的目标位了，设了个订单没买上。不迅速拉高过五块，股价又危险了。

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: 大牛操低了吗？

r*m2014-10-09 07:10

38 楼

今天陪孩子玩，没空看盘。明天我来捞底救市！

a*12014-10-09 07:10

39 楼

牛。

【在 r*m 的大作中提到】

: 今天陪孩子玩，没空看盘。明天我来捞底救市！

a*12014-10-09 07:10

40 楼

Buy SD, sell PWE.
Net exposure is zero.
PWE is naked swimming while SD will survive the $80-$75 oil.

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: 牛。

r*m2014-10-09 07:10

41 楼

4.82;4.86; 4.94
被我买上去了

a*12014-10-09 07:10

42 楼

你又可以买了。

【在 r*m 的大作中提到】

: 4.82;4.86; 4.94
: 被我买上去了

p*r2014-10-09 07:10

43 楼

Any reason that SD is up over 5%.

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: Buy SD, sell PWE.
: Net exposure is zero.
: PWE is naked swimming while SD will survive the $80-$75 oil.

l*o2014-10-09 07:10

44 楼

大赞!学习了.

a*12014-10-09 07:10

45 楼

Even though the oil is still dropping, people clearly see the floor of
around 75 and 80, while all the oil companies were priced as if the oil was
going down to 60.
Specific for SD is because they are
1) more weighted to NG,
2) very well hedged for 2014 (95%), 2015 (65%) and 2016 (20%).
3) asset was sold early on and is in much better cash position.
Looks like SD will survive this storm while PWE is still in question,
especially if asset sale does not happen soon.

【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】

:
: Any reason that SD is up over 5%.

p*r2014-10-09 07:10

46 楼

很有道理。我会好好看一下。
这泼石油爆掉，有可能会打掉一批 high cost E&P.
美国这几年页岩油的发展，到底对整个世界石油供求关系有
多大的影响？虽然美国现在只是生产 50% 的自己的的消耗，
但不知道这几年的增产，会不会真的已引起世界范围的石油产能过剩。

was

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: Even though the oil is still dropping, people clearly see the floor of
: around 75 and 80, while all the oil companies were priced as if the oil was
: going down to 60.
: Specific for SD is because they are
: 1) more weighted to NG,
: 2) very well hedged for 2014 (95%), 2015 (65%) and 2016 (20%).
: 3) asset was sold early on and is in much better cash position.
: Looks like SD will survive this storm while PWE is still in question,
: especially if asset sale does not happen soon.

r*m2014-10-09 07:10

47 楼

石油80是底，不用做恐慌性解读。

a*12014-10-09 07:10

48 楼

Best trade, still works.
再次重申，大牛们需要割PWE了，

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: Buy SD, sell PWE.
: Net exposure is zero.
: PWE is naked swimming while SD will survive the $80-$75 oil.

r*m2014-10-09 07:10

49 楼

加仓买入，均价5块出头
石油在可预见的将来仍然是最重要的能源和化工原料。

a*12014-10-09 07:10

50 楼

I can only pray to GOD.
Again Buy SD, short PWE, net exposure 0.

【在 r*m 的大作中提到】

: 加仓买入，均价5块出头
: 石油在可预见的将来仍然是最重要的能源和化工原料。

r*m2014-10-09 07:10

51 楼

there's no such thing as net exposure=0.
shit happens. PWE could shoot up while SD crash down.
you think you know something, actually you don't. neither do I.

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: I can only pray to GOD.
: Again Buy SD, short PWE, net exposure 0.

p*r2014-10-09 07:10

52 楼

看了一下 SD, 有个方面不喜欢. debt $3.1B, 很多是 7% 以上的 rate，太高了
还有很多 preferred shares. 这样的公司还有 preferred shares. preferred
share 红利挺高的。它有 $900m cash. net debt 大约 $2.5B
我清了所有的油股，但还是怕石油没到底，石油到底应该是有 E&P 开始减产。
我喜欢你曾说过的，能做简单的，不去做难的。今天趁 Bank 股大跌，追加了
BAC 和 C. 这两个股涨在一年内涨20%没问题。　相对来说比做油股简单。
小型股上星期进了银矿股 PAAS. 银子应该到底了，因为已没有银矿能挣钱了。

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: I can only pray to GOD.
: Again Buy SD, short PWE, net exposure 0.

a*12014-10-09 07:10

53 楼

同意。
我刚 unwind everything.

【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】

:
: 看了一下 SD, 有个方面不喜欢. debt $3.1B, 很多是 7% 以上的 rate，太高了
: 还有很多 preferred shares. 这样的公司还有 preferred shares. preferred
: share 红利挺高的。它有 $900m cash. net debt 大约 $2.5B
: 我清了所有的油股，但还是怕石油没到底，石油到底应该是有 E&P 开始减产。
: 我喜欢你曾说过的，能做简单的，不去做难的。今天趁 Bank 股大跌，追加了
: BAC 和 C. 这两个股涨在一年内涨20%没问题。　相对来说比做油股简单。
: 小型股上星期进了银矿股 PAAS. 银子应该到底了，因为已没有银矿能挣钱了。

x*n2014-10-09 07:10

54 楼

银行才是无底线。还有什么比银行资产和负债更难懂的？石油搞不清楚，碰银行更是找死

【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】

:
: 看了一下 SD, 有个方面不喜欢. debt $3.1B, 很多是 7% 以上的 rate，太高了
: 还有很多 preferred shares. 这样的公司还有 preferred shares. preferred
: share 红利挺高的。它有 $900m cash. net debt 大约 $2.5B
: 我清了所有的油股，但还是怕石油没到底，石油到底应该是有 E&P 开始减产。
: 我喜欢你曾说过的，能做简单的，不去做难的。今天趁 Bank 股大跌，追加了
: BAC 和 C. 这两个股涨在一年内涨20%没问题。　相对来说比做油股简单。
: 小型股上星期进了银矿股 PAAS. 银子应该到底了，因为已没有银矿能挣钱了。

a*12014-10-09 07:10

55 楼

金融好像没到底。

【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】

:
: 看了一下 SD, 有个方面不喜欢. debt $3.1B, 很多是 7% 以上的 rate，太高了
: 还有很多 preferred shares. 这样的公司还有 preferred shares. preferred
: share 红利挺高的。它有 $900m cash. net debt 大约 $2.5B
: 我清了所有的油股，但还是怕石油没到底，石油到底应该是有 E&P 开始减产。
: 我喜欢你曾说过的，能做简单的，不去做难的。今天趁 Bank 股大跌，追加了
: BAC 和 C. 这两个股涨在一年内涨20%没问题。　相对来说比做油股简单。
: 小型股上星期进了银矿股 PAAS. 银子应该到底了，因为已没有银矿能挣钱了。

r*m2014-10-09 07:10

56 楼

agree. 银行是个高度leverage的行当，经济好啥都好说，经济不好了全是坏账。

找死

【在 x***n 的大作中提到】

: 银行才是无底线。还有什么比银行资产和负债更难懂的？石油搞不清楚，碰银行更是找死

b*p2014-10-09 07:10

57 楼

x哥v5!

p*r2014-10-09 07:10

58 楼

找死
如果银行有好的 discipline，那应该比我们这里的人都能赚钱。
Several reasons.
1. Banks have many financial professionals, they should be better
than most of individuals in terms of financial knowledge.
Here the professionals refer to those having high education.
Not the bank tellers and account admin.
2. They can get more information than us, and they can get information
earlier than us. So, they can do the necessary hedge before
most of individuals.
3. The barriers to entry is high for the bank business. So,
by nature the business has much less competition.
4. Banks have some business that can guarantee make money, such
as bond sale, IPO, and merge/acquisition service.
5. C and BAC are both traded below book value, C is even traded below
tangible book value, which is $57.
The most critical part to the banks is discipline. After the housing bubble
sub-prime loans, they should have learned lesson, and now government also
keeps close eye on them.

【在 x***n 的大作中提到】

: 银行才是无底线。还有什么比银行资产和负债更难懂的？石油搞不清楚，碰银行更是找死

a*12014-10-09 07:10

59 楼

Book value does not mean much as you can tell from PWE story. Stock price
usually goes ahead of book value.
During the financial crisis, all it took was a couple of days for the banks
going bankrupt as liquidity drys up due to 30:1 leverage (maybe 10:1
nowadays). Book value does not mean much as liquidity drys up extreme
leverage.

【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】

:
: 找死
: 如果银行有好的 discipline，那应该比我们这里的人都能赚钱。
: Several reasons.
: 1. Banks have many financial professionals, they should be better
: than most of individuals in terms of financial knowledge.
: Here the professionals refer to those having high education.
: Not the bank tellers and account admin.
: 2. They can get more information than us, and they can get information
: earlier than us. So, they can do the necessary hedge before

a*12014-10-09 07:10

60 楼

Fundamental speaking, over supply of oil is the current trend. OPEC has no
control over the price of oil as US E&P are increasing production YOY. The
only way OPEC can make a meaningful impact is to increase production, thus
reducing price to force some of the high cost oil production company out of
business.
The the reasonable target is to set the price at $60 and last for a year or
two. Since the breakeven price for most of the shale company is around $80,
the world supply will start to balance after that. US government has no
intention to intervene as lower oil price will hit Russia even harder.
Just look at the natural gas from 2008, when NG was at $12. The breakeven
point was at $6 and the price dropped to $1.92 in 2012. After many years,
the breakeven point is around $3-4 and we are barely above water.
I believe in PWE management, but the most important thing is the book value
and oil reserve which is about twice the current stock price. The book value
was based upon the oil price north of $92 and probably will be zero when
oil price at some where near $60.
Everybody has his own interpretation of settlement of oil price. But the
question is can they survive the next dramatic price drop for several years.
At the current price, PWE is barely breaking even. Another 5 point drop
will force them to cut dividend (or keep selling asset to keep dividend, but
selling the asset will be deep discount). At below 80, CAPEX will be
significantly cut and production will have to drop which will begin the
vicious cycle....
Had they hedged for 2015 and part of 2016, they will have enough time to
turnaournd, but now, time is not on their side. The only thing works for
them is the currency.

t*j2014-10-09 07:10

61 楼

你上周买的还在吗？

a*12014-10-09 07:10

62 楼

发信人: able101 (able101), 信区: Stock
标题: Re: 均价8块的2000股PWE怎么办？
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Oct 9 09:06:06 2014, 美东)
大牛都不割肉的吗？
我在5.75 开割，-10%.
我每次一割就涨，很灵的。

【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】

:
: 找死
: 如果银行有好的 discipline，那应该比我们这里的人都能赚钱。
: Several reasons.
: 1. Banks have many financial professionals, they should be better
: than most of individuals in terms of financial knowledge.
: Here the professionals refer to those having high education.
: Not the bank tellers and account admin.
: 2. They can get more information than us, and they can get information
: earlier than us. So, they can do the necessary hedge before

t*j2014-10-09 07:10

63 楼

你的分析很好，这里有个问题，北美天然气是个相对封闭的市场，所以shale gas大规
模冲击市场时是能打到很低。石油是global市场，现在大概oversupply 1mmboe/day,稍
微几个大的比如沙特俄罗斯伊朗操纵下就能稳住价格的。但现在背后的庄家是美国加
沙特，他们准备打到多少就需要研究了。

x*n2014-10-09 07:10

64 楼

不要恐慌，仓位不要大。有分红吃。ＢＯＯＫ　ＶＡＬＵＥ在油价为60的时候为零，这
是个笑话。。。

t*j2014-10-09 07:10

65 楼

如果油价真的去了60并且盘整一年，able101的分析是对的。现在的问题是油价会不会
这附近就稳住。
不过能源股跌的是有点预示油价要去70的架势。

【在 x***n 的大作中提到】

: 不要恐慌，仓位不要大。有分红吃。ＢＯＯＫ　ＶＡＬＵＥ在油价为60的时候为零，这
: 是个笑话。。。

t*j2014-10-09 07:10

66 楼

仔细研究了下，油最差底部在80左右，可能这里就是底的。不过接下来两年油价也不
bullish,80-100range . 60不太可能，除非经济危机。

p*r2014-10-09 07:10

67 楼

able101 分析的很好。
Bloomberg 有片文章提到这个。
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-07/shale-boom-tested-as-s
OPEC also may prevent further declines because members need high prices to
support social spending. Saudi Arabia needs $87.63 a barrel to balance its
budget, compared with $66.50 for the United Arab Emirates and $92.96 for
Iraq, the International Monetary Fund estimates.
实际上 oil 在 $80 时，很多都赚不了钱了。那时美国的shale oil 肯定不赚钱。
美国的 shale oil 就得老老实实减产。在这个价位卖油的话，美国也是等于自杀，因
为美国本身没有很多储存。

t*j2014-10-09 07:10

68 楼

shale oil成本大部分在70-80，所以over exteneded, 油到70+很可能。

a*t2014-10-09 07:10

69 楼

谢谢评论，引申开去，是不是石油能源股都将低迷一段时间？那么太阳能等清洁能源在
中期内也会受压制？

t*j2014-10-09 07:10

70 楼

石油是能源的领头大哥，老大倒了，天然气肯定不死不活，煤炭就死了，
太阳能，清洁能源连煤炭都不如，能源什么都低了搞那些花哨的干嘛？

【在 a*******t 的大作中提到】

: 谢谢评论，引申开去，是不是石油能源股都将低迷一段时间？那么太阳能等清洁能源在
: 中期内也会受压制？

a*12014-10-09 07:10

71 楼

It does not have to be as dramatic as natural gas, But how about only half
the swing?
My assumption of 60 is based upon 40% drop from the top, while NG did
dropped more than 80% from the top. Right now at 86, we are still at the top
of the range. Remember oil price as recent as 2008 was in the 30s.
I agree that reasonable oil price need to be around 80 to be balance. But it
always take some dramatic move before settle down. Right now the natural
gas is almost balanced, but that was after the long painful struggle.
In the case of PWE, the management is good, but I don't like the fact that
they did not hedge. It is almost the replay of CHK for Natural gas. Just
when Aubrey Mcclendon stopped the hegding, the NG price crashed. CHK price
was as high as 70 right before 2008 and went down to as low as 13. It has
huge reserve and has BV more than the pps (familiar?). CHK was lucky not
bankrupt.
History never repeats itself but it rhymes.---Mark Twain.

【在 t***j 的大作中提到】

: 你的分析很好，这里有个问题，北美天然气是个相对封闭的市场，所以shale gas大规
: 模冲击市场时是能打到很低。石油是global市场，现在大概oversupply 1mmboe/day,稍
: 微几个大的比如沙特俄罗斯伊朗操纵下就能稳住价格的。但现在背后的庄家是美国加
: 沙特，他们准备打到多少就需要研究了。

t*j2014-10-09 07:10

72 楼

CHK is the case I studied too, CHK doesnot bankrupt is because some big HF
guys stepped in and save CHK. If not, I guess we will see CHK asset being
sold and price goes to zero.
2008 case is a financials disaster, you cannot use that case as price
reference. But Oil goes to 60-70 range and stays there fore 1-2 years will
kill those small players definitely, bigger one like XOM/CVX/CNQ will be
fine in long run and maybe going much higher.

top
it

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: It does not have to be as dramatic as natural gas, But how about only half
: the swing?
: My assumption of 60 is based upon 40% drop from the top, while NG did
: dropped more than 80% from the top. Right now at 86, we are still at the top
: of the range. Remember oil price as recent as 2008 was in the 30s.
: I agree that reasonable oil price need to be around 80 to be balance. But it
: always take some dramatic move before settle down. Right now the natural
: gas is almost balanced, but that was after the long painful struggle.
: In the case of PWE, the management is good, but I don't like the fact that
: they did not hedge. It is almost the replay of CHK for Natural gas. Just

a*t2014-10-09 07:10

73 楼

清洁能源跟石油类煤类的区别是，这是各国特别是美国政客为显示政绩的一个炒作概念
，在将来的几年内美国还有什么概念可以炒作？我觉得受到打击最严重的将是电车。

【在 t***j 的大作中提到】

: 石油是能源的领头大哥，老大倒了，天然气肯定不死不活，煤炭就死了，
: 太阳能，清洁能源连煤炭都不如，能源什么都低了搞那些花哨的干嘛？

a*12014-10-09 07:10

74 楼

Short TSLA, maybe that is a good idea.

【在 a*******t 的大作中提到】

: 清洁能源跟石油类煤类的区别是，这是各国特别是美国政客为显示政绩的一个炒作概念
: ，在将来的几年内美国还有什么概念可以炒作？我觉得受到打击最严重的将是电车。

t*j2014-10-09 07:10

75 楼

有钱的时候可以花些来显示政绩，现在德国都衰退了，日本也是，欧洲就沦陷了。
没钱的时候你出去吃饭吗？2008的时候太阳能的补贴可是一再cut

【在 a*******t 的大作中提到】

: 清洁能源跟石油类煤类的区别是，这是各国特别是美国政客为显示政绩的一个炒作概念
: ，在将来的几年内美国还有什么概念可以炒作？我觉得受到打击最严重的将是电车。

a*t2014-10-09 07:10

76 楼

有道理有道理，你是觉得美国经济又走到头了？
恕我无知，如果欧洲低迷，热钱会不会继续流回美国？还是该流的已经都流完了？

【在 t***j 的大作中提到】

: 有钱的时候可以花些来显示政绩，现在德国都衰退了，日本也是，欧洲就沦陷了。
: 没钱的时候你出去吃饭吗？2008的时候太阳能的补贴可是一再cut

a*12014-10-09 07:10

77 楼

I agree financial crisis is not going to happen again this time around. But
what kills CHK at the time was not about financial crisis, it was the price
of natural gas and oil price.
The good news here is that PWE has been cutting debt and shrinking capex and
head count. That certainly will help extending the life line here. CHK was
caught swimming naked at the time, PWE was just ready to put on something.
Asset sale in the next several weeks will be the determine factor. We shall
see.

【在 t***j 的大作中提到】

: CHK is the case I studied too, CHK doesnot bankrupt is because some big HF
: guys stepped in and save CHK. If not, I guess we will see CHK asset being
: sold and price goes to zero.
: 2008 case is a financials disaster, you cannot use that case as price
: reference. But Oil goes to 60-70 range and stays there fore 1-2 years will
: kill those small players definitely, bigger one like XOM/CVX/CNQ will be
: fine in long run and maybe going much higher.
:
: top
: it

t*j2014-10-09 07:10

78 楼

热钱回流有3个地方，一是欧洲，二是亚洲，三是中东。
已经回流2-3年了，所以美股股市牛的一塌糊涂。
现在1继续衰退，2开始加速衰退，3油价大跌，热钱会少很多。所以美股我猜2000点会
是多年的顶了。
当然10年后肯定会突破，但不是我们现在讨论的事情。

【在 a*******t 的大作中提到】

: 有道理有道理，你是觉得美国经济又走到头了？
: 恕我无知，如果欧洲低迷，热钱会不会继续流回美国？还是该流的已经都流完了？

a*t2014-10-09 07:10

79 楼

谢谢，这个分析非常靠谱。现在股市piaji的话，对世界经济有什么影响呢？比2008年
更恐怖吧？

【在 t***j 的大作中提到】

: 热钱回流有3个地方，一是欧洲，二是亚洲，三是中东。
: 已经回流2-3年了，所以美股股市牛的一塌糊涂。
: 现在1继续衰退，2开始加速衰退，3油价大跌，热钱会少很多。所以美股我猜2000点会
: 是多年的顶了。
: 当然10年后肯定会突破，但不是我们现在讨论的事情。

t*j2014-10-09 07:10

80 楼

things are changed too fast, I believe when PWE negotiate with partner to
sell asset is about several months ago, at that time oil price is at 100$,
now the case are so much different. This kind of deal takes times to finish,
now WTI already in the 86, the deal maybe much smaller, if PWE donot sell
asset now, PWE will like CHK in naked swimming next two years since they
donot have hedge. Two years naked is enough to be killed. Asset still worth
some money, but shares maybe not.
If PWE sell their asset like Chevron Q2 or Q3, they will survive. But now,
things become tricky.

But
price
and
was
shall

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: I agree financial crisis is not going to happen again this time around. But
: what kills CHK at the time was not about financial crisis, it was the price
: of natural gas and oil price.
: The good news here is that PWE has been cutting debt and shrinking capex and
: head count. That certainly will help extending the life line here. CHK was
: caught swimming naked at the time, PWE was just ready to put on something.
: Asset sale in the next several weeks will be the determine factor. We shall
: see.

t*j2014-10-09 07:10

81 楼

矮子里面拔将军，美国仍然是最好的最棒的，其他地方就不知道了，一团mess一地鸡毛
是肯定的。

【在 a*******t 的大作中提到】

: 谢谢，这个分析非常靠谱。现在股市piaji的话，对世界经济有什么影响呢？比2008年
: 更恐怖吧？

a*12014-10-09 07:10

82 楼

Well said.

finish,
worth

【在 t***j 的大作中提到】

: things are changed too fast, I believe when PWE negotiate with partner to
: sell asset is about several months ago, at that time oil price is at 100$,
: now the case are so much different. This kind of deal takes times to finish,
: now WTI already in the 86, the deal maybe much smaller, if PWE donot sell
: asset now, PWE will like CHK in naked swimming next two years since they
: donot have hedge. Two years naked is enough to be killed. Asset still worth
: some money, but shares maybe not.
: If PWE sell their asset like Chevron Q2 or Q3, they will survive. But now,
: things become tricky.
:

a*12014-10-09 07:10

83 楼

Most of the small E&P companies are fully hedged this year, about 2/3 hedged
for 2015 and about 25% hedged for 2016. Examples are CHK, PGH and SD.
The fact that they all dropped the similar percentage as PWE suggesting that
hedging is not a fact here. That means market foresees the drop will go
beyond 2016 or the price will drop through the floor of three way collar. In
the later case, most of the floors were set around 70-75 dollar.
Either way it will be bloody. Back in 2008 the price dropped from the high
of 145 in July to the low of 35 in Dec, about a dollar per trading day for
100 days!!!
Again history never repeats but rhymes.

finish,
worth

【在 t***j 的大作中提到】

: things are changed too fast, I believe when PWE negotiate with partner to
: sell asset is about several months ago, at that time oil price is at 100$,
: now the case are so much different. This kind of deal takes times to finish,
: now WTI already in the 86, the deal maybe much smaller, if PWE donot sell
: asset now, PWE will like CHK in naked swimming next two years since they
: donot have hedge. Two years naked is enough to be killed. Asset still worth
: some money, but shares maybe not.
: If PWE sell their asset like Chevron Q2 or Q3, they will survive. But now,
: things become tricky.
:

p*a2014-10-09 07:10

84 楼

of
or
,

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: Fundamental speaking, over supply of oil is the current trend. OPEC has no
: control over the price of oil as US E&P are increasing production YOY. The
: only way OPEC can make a meaningful impact is to increase production, thus
: reducing price to force some of the high cost oil production company out of
: business.
: The the reasonable target is to set the price at $60 and last for a year or
: two. Since the breakeven price for most of the shale company is around $80,
: the world supply will start to balance after that. US government has no
: intention to intervene as lower oil price will hit Russia even harder.
: Just look at the natural gas from 2008, when NG was at $12. The breakeven

w*k2014-10-09 07:10

85 楼

分析很赞，尤其是楼主和toddj等人的。
有个问题我想不通，美国为什么通过石油价格作为武器来打击俄罗斯？美国自己产不少
油，有不少石油公司。这些公司的老板会放弃自己的利益让美国这样杀敌一千自损八百
的打压俄罗斯？这些人难道不是奥黑的金主？

r*m2014-10-09 07:10

86 楼

呵呵。
我觉得喜欢分析的人往往会走上“阴谋论”的道路。其实更大的可能就是简单的供需关
系决定了价格走向。在某个时间段内被交易强化放大，即使是大庄家也只能影响而不能
控制。

【在 w**k 的大作中提到】

: 分析很赞，尤其是楼主和toddj等人的。
: 有个问题我想不通，美国为什么通过石油价格作为武器来打击俄罗斯？美国自己产不少
: 油，有不少石油公司。这些公司的老板会放弃自己的利益让美国这样杀敌一千自损八百
: 的打压俄罗斯？这些人难道不是奥黑的金主？

w*k2014-10-09 07:10

87 楼

我也决定就是供求不平衡，也就是还是因为经济放缓的原因。

【在 r*m 的大作中提到】

: 呵呵。
: 我觉得喜欢分析的人往往会走上“阴谋论”的道路。其实更大的可能就是简单的供需关
: 系决定了价格走向。在某个时间段内被交易强化放大，即使是大庄家也只能影响而不能
: 控制。

p*r2014-10-09 07:10

88 楼

楼主的意思是中东某些国家想要通过价格战把 US oil shale drive out of business
or at least high cost E&P companies.
但实际最主要的是这石油到底有没有供大于求。
如果供远远大于求，那油价还是得跟着供求关系走。
可能美国这些年的 shale oil 的确是对世界石油的供求
关系产生很大的影响。

【在 w**k 的大作中提到】

: 分析很赞，尤其是楼主和toddj等人的。
: 有个问题我想不通，美国为什么通过石油价格作为武器来打击俄罗斯？美国自己产不少
: 油，有不少石油公司。这些公司的老板会放弃自己的利益让美国这样杀敌一千自损八百
: 的打压俄罗斯？这些人难道不是奥黑的金主？

g*22014-10-09 07:10

89 楼

首先，我觉得阴谋论的确不应该被放大。但是世界上有两种商品的价格是被操纵的特别
厉害的：黄金和石油。很多时候，你的确不能完全用供需关系来解释这两种商品的价格。

【在 r*m 的大作中提到】

: 呵呵。
: 我觉得喜欢分析的人往往会走上“阴谋论”的道路。其实更大的可能就是简单的供需关
: 系决定了价格走向。在某个时间段内被交易强化放大，即使是大庄家也只能影响而不能
: 控制。

b*d2014-10-09 07:10

90 楼

这个帖子系列太赞了。

of
or
,

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: Fundamental speaking, over supply of oil is the current trend. OPEC has no
: control over the price of oil as US E&P are increasing production YOY. The
: only way OPEC can make a meaningful impact is to increase production, thus
: reducing price to force some of the high cost oil production company out of
: business.
: The the reasonable target is to set the price at $60 and last for a year or
: two. Since the breakeven price for most of the shale company is around $80,
: the world supply will start to balance after that. US government has no
: intention to intervene as lower oil price will hit Russia even harder.
: Just look at the natural gas from 2008, when NG was at $12. The breakeven

a*12014-10-09 07:10

91 楼

大牛不想全割，也得割一部分。
The purpose is to stay alive.

x*n2014-10-09 07:10

92 楼

快到我的买入点了。觉得４.ＸＸ很快可以看到。慢慢买，不着急

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: 大牛不想全割，也得割一部分。
: The purpose is to stay alive.

a*12014-10-09 07:10

93 楼

zan 慢慢买，不着急!

【在 x***n 的大作中提到】

: 快到我的买入点了。觉得４.ＸＸ很快可以看到。慢慢买，不着急

w*m2014-10-09 07:10

94 楼

IMF刚调低了全球经济发展速度，欧洲再次停滞
亚洲更是糟糕，热钱都流到经济负增长的地方去了？
大盘虚高，华尔街人人皆知的事实，热钱不一定
非要去股市，WARREN BUFFET都在说房地产

a*12014-10-09 07:10

95 楼

大牛操低了吗？

【在 x***n 的大作中提到】

: 快到我的买入点了。觉得４.ＸＸ很快可以看到。慢慢买，不着急

x*n2014-10-09 07:10

96 楼

到了我的目标位了，设了个订单没买上。不迅速拉高过五块，股价又危险了。

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: 大牛操低了吗？

r*m2014-10-09 07:10

97 楼

今天陪孩子玩，没空看盘。明天我来捞底救市！

a*12014-10-09 07:10

98 楼

牛。

【在 r*m 的大作中提到】

: 今天陪孩子玩，没空看盘。明天我来捞底救市！

a*12014-10-09 07:10

99 楼

Buy SD, sell PWE.
Net exposure is zero.
PWE is naked swimming while SD will survive the $80-$75 oil.

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: 牛。

r*m2014-10-09 07:10

100 楼

4.82;4.86; 4.94
被我买上去了

a*12014-10-09 07:10

101 楼

你又可以买了。

【在 r*m 的大作中提到】

: 4.82;4.86; 4.94
: 被我买上去了

p*r2014-10-09 07:10

102 楼

Any reason that SD is up over 5%.

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: Buy SD, sell PWE.
: Net exposure is zero.
: PWE is naked swimming while SD will survive the $80-$75 oil.

l*o2014-10-09 07:10

103 楼

大赞!学习了.

a*12014-10-09 07:10

104 楼

Even though the oil is still dropping, people clearly see the floor of
around 75 and 80, while all the oil companies were priced as if the oil was
going down to 60.
Specific for SD is because they are
1) more weighted to NG,
2) very well hedged for 2014 (95%), 2015 (65%) and 2016 (20%).
3) asset was sold early on and is in much better cash position.
Looks like SD will survive this storm while PWE is still in question,
especially if asset sale does not happen soon.

【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】

:
: Any reason that SD is up over 5%.

p*r2014-10-09 07:10

105 楼

很有道理。我会好好看一下。
这泼石油爆掉，有可能会打掉一批 high cost E&P.
美国这几年页岩油的发展，到底对整个世界石油供求关系有
多大的影响？虽然美国现在只是生产 50% 的自己的的消耗，
但不知道这几年的增产，会不会真的已引起世界范围的石油产能过剩。

was

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: Even though the oil is still dropping, people clearly see the floor of
: around 75 and 80, while all the oil companies were priced as if the oil was
: going down to 60.
: Specific for SD is because they are
: 1) more weighted to NG,
: 2) very well hedged for 2014 (95%), 2015 (65%) and 2016 (20%).
: 3) asset was sold early on and is in much better cash position.
: Looks like SD will survive this storm while PWE is still in question,
: especially if asset sale does not happen soon.

r*m2014-10-09 07:10

106 楼

石油80是底，不用做恐慌性解读。

a*12014-10-09 07:10

107 楼

Best trade, still works.
再次重申，大牛们需要割PWE了，

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: Buy SD, sell PWE.
: Net exposure is zero.
: PWE is naked swimming while SD will survive the $80-$75 oil.

r*m2014-10-09 07:10

108 楼

加仓买入，均价5块出头
石油在可预见的将来仍然是最重要的能源和化工原料。

a*12014-10-09 07:10

109 楼

I can only pray to GOD.
Again Buy SD, short PWE, net exposure 0.

【在 r*m 的大作中提到】

: 加仓买入，均价5块出头
: 石油在可预见的将来仍然是最重要的能源和化工原料。

r*m2014-10-09 07:10

110 楼

there's no such thing as net exposure=0.
shit happens. PWE could shoot up while SD crash down.
you think you know something, actually you don't. neither do I.

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: I can only pray to GOD.
: Again Buy SD, short PWE, net exposure 0.

p*r2014-10-09 07:10

111 楼

看了一下 SD, 有个方面不喜欢. debt $3.1B, 很多是 7% 以上的 rate，太高了
还有很多 preferred shares. 这样的公司还有 preferred shares. preferred
share 红利挺高的。它有 $900m cash. net debt 大约 $2.5B
我清了所有的油股，但还是怕石油没到底，石油到底应该是有 E&P 开始减产。
我喜欢你曾说过的，能做简单的，不去做难的。今天趁 Bank 股大跌，追加了
BAC 和 C. 这两个股涨在一年内涨20%没问题。　相对来说比做油股简单。
小型股上星期进了银矿股 PAAS. 银子应该到底了，因为已没有银矿能挣钱了。

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: I can only pray to GOD.
: Again Buy SD, short PWE, net exposure 0.

a*12014-10-09 07:10

112 楼

同意。
我刚 unwind everything.

【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】

:
: 看了一下 SD, 有个方面不喜欢. debt $3.1B, 很多是 7% 以上的 rate，太高了
: 还有很多 preferred shares. 这样的公司还有 preferred shares. preferred
: share 红利挺高的。它有 $900m cash. net debt 大约 $2.5B
: 我清了所有的油股，但还是怕石油没到底，石油到底应该是有 E&P 开始减产。
: 我喜欢你曾说过的，能做简单的，不去做难的。今天趁 Bank 股大跌，追加了
: BAC 和 C. 这两个股涨在一年内涨20%没问题。　相对来说比做油股简单。
: 小型股上星期进了银矿股 PAAS. 银子应该到底了，因为已没有银矿能挣钱了。

x*n2014-10-09 07:10

113 楼

银行才是无底线。还有什么比银行资产和负债更难懂的？石油搞不清楚，碰银行更是找死

【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】

:
: 看了一下 SD, 有个方面不喜欢. debt $3.1B, 很多是 7% 以上的 rate，太高了
: 还有很多 preferred shares. 这样的公司还有 preferred shares. preferred
: share 红利挺高的。它有 $900m cash. net debt 大约 $2.5B
: 我清了所有的油股，但还是怕石油没到底，石油到底应该是有 E&P 开始减产。
: 我喜欢你曾说过的，能做简单的，不去做难的。今天趁 Bank 股大跌，追加了
: BAC 和 C. 这两个股涨在一年内涨20%没问题。　相对来说比做油股简单。
: 小型股上星期进了银矿股 PAAS. 银子应该到底了，因为已没有银矿能挣钱了。

a*12014-10-09 07:10

114 楼

金融好像没到底。

【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】

:
: 看了一下 SD, 有个方面不喜欢. debt $3.1B, 很多是 7% 以上的 rate，太高了
: 还有很多 preferred shares. 这样的公司还有 preferred shares. preferred
: share 红利挺高的。它有 $900m cash. net debt 大约 $2.5B
: 我清了所有的油股，但还是怕石油没到底，石油到底应该是有 E&P 开始减产。
: 我喜欢你曾说过的，能做简单的，不去做难的。今天趁 Bank 股大跌，追加了
: BAC 和 C. 这两个股涨在一年内涨20%没问题。　相对来说比做油股简单。
: 小型股上星期进了银矿股 PAAS. 银子应该到底了，因为已没有银矿能挣钱了。

r*m2014-10-09 07:10

115 楼

agree. 银行是个高度leverage的行当，经济好啥都好说，经济不好了全是坏账。

找死

【在 x***n 的大作中提到】

: 银行才是无底线。还有什么比银行资产和负债更难懂的？石油搞不清楚，碰银行更是找死

b*p2014-10-09 07:10

116 楼

x哥v5!

p*r2014-10-09 07:10

117 楼

找死
如果银行有好的 discipline，那应该比我们这里的人都能赚钱。
Several reasons.
1. Banks have many financial professionals, they should be better
than most of individuals in terms of financial knowledge.
Here the professionals refer to those having high education.
Not the bank tellers and account admin.
2. They can get more information than us, and they can get information
earlier than us. So, they can do the necessary hedge before
most of individuals.
3. The barriers to entry is high for the bank business. So,
by nature the business has much less competition.
4. Banks have some business that can guarantee make money, such
as bond sale, IPO, and merge/acquisition service.
5. C and BAC are both traded below book value, C is even traded below
tangible book value, which is $57.
The most critical part to the banks is discipline. After the housing bubble
sub-prime loans, they should have learned lesson, and now government also
keeps close eye on them.

【在 x***n 的大作中提到】

: 银行才是无底线。还有什么比银行资产和负债更难懂的？石油搞不清楚，碰银行更是找死

a*12014-10-09 07:10

118 楼

Book value does not mean much as you can tell from PWE story. Stock price
usually goes ahead of book value.
During the financial crisis, all it took was a couple of days for the banks
going bankrupt as liquidity drys up due to 30:1 leverage (maybe 10:1
nowadays). Book value does not mean much as liquidity drys up extreme
leverage.

【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】

:
: 找死
: 如果银行有好的 discipline，那应该比我们这里的人都能赚钱。
: Several reasons.
: 1. Banks have many financial professionals, they should be better
: than most of individuals in terms of financial knowledge.
: Here the professionals refer to those having high education.
: Not the bank tellers and account admin.
: 2. They can get more information than us, and they can get information
: earlier than us. So, they can do the necessary hedge before

a*12014-10-09 07:10

119 楼

看来你的金融是抄到底了。
顶大牛。

【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】

:
: 找死
: 如果银行有好的 discipline，那应该比我们这里的人都能赚钱。
: Several reasons.
: 1. Banks have many financial professionals, they should be better
: than most of individuals in terms of financial knowledge.
: Here the professionals refer to those having high education.
: Not the bank tellers and account admin.
: 2. They can get more information than us, and they can get information
: earlier than us. So, they can do the necessary hedge before

p*r2014-10-09 07:10

120 楼

不管怎么说，得感谢你的帖子，很好的分析与警告。
那天 DOW 跌 400 点，把我的 MET 震出去了些。
在它的 strong support $46.x, 又不敢买进。
One big mistake I made is it did not
buy AAL or DAL. They are both up near 30-40%
from recent correction. I was just too much
scared about ebola.

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: 看来你的金融是抄到底了。
: 顶大牛。

a*12014-10-09 07:10

121 楼

不可能什么钱都赚，能赚就不错了。
你还是很厉害的。
MET是个不错的公司。我的长期拥有AIG 49.5也给整出去了。

【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】

:
: 不管怎么说，得感谢你的帖子，很好的分析与警告。
: 那天 DOW 跌 400 点，把我的 MET 震出去了些。
: 在它的 strong support $46.x, 又不敢买进。
: One big mistake I made is it did not
: buy AAL or DAL. They are both up near 30-40%
: from recent correction. I was just too much
: scared about ebola.

a*12014-10-09 07:10

122 楼

过去俩月值得回顾。

【在 a*****1 的大作中提到】

: 不可能什么钱都赚，能赚就不错了。
: 你还是很厉害的。
: MET是个不错的公司。我的长期拥有AIG 49.5也给整出去了。