c*y
2 楼
很讨厌这种似是而非的大忽悠，煤炭，天然气和原油要分开来说。
就算WTI最近跌倒了83附近，生产成品最高的公司也就80，低的50多。
再说了，大的才不hedge或者少hedge，小的公司不hedge还能活到现在么。
【在 w*****m 的大作中提到】
: 除非实力特别雄厚的，很多煤炭石油天然气公司要破产
: 石油价格可能继续走低，中东拒绝石油减产，很多成本
: 高的公司可能被挤破产
就算WTI最近跌倒了83附近，生产成品最高的公司也就80，低的50多。
再说了，大的才不hedge或者少hedge，小的公司不hedge还能活到现在么。
【在 w*****m 的大作中提到】
: 除非实力特别雄厚的，很多煤炭石油天然气公司要破产
: 石油价格可能继续走低，中东拒绝石油减产，很多成本
: 高的公司可能被挤破产
s*i
3 楼
这位是大牛！
天然气可以Long
【在 c*******y 的大作中提到】
: 很讨厌这种似是而非的大忽悠，煤炭，天然气和原油要分开来说。
: 就算WTI最近跌倒了83附近，生产成品最高的公司也就80，低的50多。
: 再说了，大的才不hedge或者少hedge，小的公司不hedge还能活到现在么。
天然气可以Long
【在 c*******y 的大作中提到】
: 很讨厌这种似是而非的大忽悠，煤炭，天然气和原油要分开来说。
: 就算WTI最近跌倒了83附近，生产成品最高的公司也就80，低的50多。
: 再说了，大的才不hedge或者少hedge，小的公司不hedge还能活到现在么。
c*y
4 楼
你才是大牛，你们全家都是大牛
我比小星星还惨一百倍
【在 s****i 的大作中提到】
: 这位是大牛！
: 天然气可以Long
我比小星星还惨一百倍
【在 s****i 的大作中提到】
: 这位是大牛！
: 天然气可以Long
s*i
5 楼
我是大牛，几个星期前就喊Oil要去80了。
Keep my family out, please.
BTW, 我是在夸你第一句说的好。
【在 c*******y 的大作中提到】
: 你才是大牛，你们全家都是大牛
: 我比小星星还惨一百倍
Keep my family out, please.
BTW, 我是在夸你第一句说的好。
【在 c*******y 的大作中提到】
: 你才是大牛，你们全家都是大牛
: 我比小星星还惨一百倍
c*y
6 楼
全家句式搞笑的，没恶意的。SRY啦
【在 s****i 的大作中提到】
: 我是大牛，几个星期前就喊Oil要去80了。
: Keep my family out, please.
: BTW, 我是在夸你第一句说的好。
【在 s****i 的大作中提到】
: 我是大牛，几个星期前就喊Oil要去80了。
: Keep my family out, please.
: BTW, 我是在夸你第一句说的好。
a*e
7 楼
【在 w*****m 的大作中提到】
: 除非实力特别雄厚的，很多煤炭石油天然气公司要破产
: 石油价格可能继续走低，中东拒绝石油减产，很多成本
: 高的公司可能被挤破产
w*m
8 楼
就是提醒一句吗，别以为跌了个10%是捡了便宜，小心血光之灾
中东石油国家现在的口号是，挤死煤炭，打压天然气，轮暴太阳能
中东石油国家现在的口号是，挤死煤炭，打压天然气，轮暴太阳能
c*y
9 楼
这还真跟中东有半毛钱关系，但才不是你说的那样。
沙特要维持市场份额，打了很多折卖给亚洲，引发OPEC内部价格战猜测，尤其沙特和科
威特
原有走弱几大原因，这算一条罢了
【在 w*****m 的大作中提到】
: 就是提醒一句吗，别以为跌了个10%是捡了便宜，小心血光之灾
: 中东石油国家现在的口号是，挤死煤炭，打压天然气，轮暴太阳能
沙特要维持市场份额，打了很多折卖给亚洲，引发OPEC内部价格战猜测，尤其沙特和科
威特
原有走弱几大原因，这算一条罢了
【在 w*****m 的大作中提到】
: 就是提醒一句吗，别以为跌了个10%是捡了便宜，小心血光之灾
: 中东石油国家现在的口号是，挤死煤炭，打压天然气，轮暴太阳能
t*a
10 楼
最终获利的是天朝不是么？这是好事
【在 c*******y 的大作中提到】
: 这还真跟中东有半毛钱关系，但才不是你说的那样。
: 沙特要维持市场份额，打了很多折卖给亚洲，引发OPEC内部价格战猜测，尤其沙特和科
: 威特
: 原有走弱几大原因，这算一条罢了
【在 c*******y 的大作中提到】
: 这还真跟中东有半毛钱关系，但才不是你说的那样。
: 沙特要维持市场份额，打了很多折卖给亚洲，引发OPEC内部价格战猜测，尤其沙特和科
: 威特
: 原有走弱几大原因，这算一条罢了
k*n
11 楼
up
【在 c*******y 的大作中提到】
: 这还真跟中东有半毛钱关系，但才不是你说的那样。
: 沙特要维持市场份额，打了很多折卖给亚洲，引发OPEC内部价格战猜测，尤其沙特和科
: 威特
: 原有走弱几大原因，这算一条罢了
【在 c*******y 的大作中提到】
: 这还真跟中东有半毛钱关系，但才不是你说的那样。
: 沙特要维持市场份额，打了很多折卖给亚洲，引发OPEC内部价格战猜测，尤其沙特和科
: 威特
: 原有走弱几大原因，这算一条罢了
b*p
12 楼
石油太难做了。
c*y
13 楼
今年的原油市场，我没仔细follow，还是看了不少东西，精彩纷呈啊。
有机会写点今年的WTI市场大事记, BRENT关注少些
【在 b*****p 的大作中提到】
: 石油太难做了。
有机会写点今年的WTI市场大事记, BRENT关注少些
【在 b*****p 的大作中提到】
: 石油太难做了。
c*y
14 楼
【在 w*****m 的大作中提到】
: 除非实力特别雄厚的，很多煤炭石油天然气公司要破产
: 石油价格可能继续走低，中东拒绝石油减产，很多成本
: 高的公司可能被挤破产
b*p
15 楼
谢谢。
寄信人: deliver (自动发信系统)
标 题: 本站转帐通知单
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Oct 14 15:30:17 2014)
来 源: mitbbs.com
bullpop，您好：
您转给 commodity,现金(伪币):188,收取手续费:1.88
同时附加了如下留言给 commodity.
预付稿费，洗耳恭听
站务
【在 c*******y 的大作中提到】
: 今年的原油市场，我没仔细follow，还是看了不少东西，精彩纷呈啊。
: 有机会写点今年的WTI市场大事记, BRENT关注少些
寄信人: deliver (自动发信系统)
标 题: 本站转帐通知单
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Oct 14 15:30:17 2014)
来 源: mitbbs.com
bullpop，您好：
您转给 commodity,现金(伪币):188,收取手续费:1.88
同时附加了如下留言给 commodity.
预付稿费，洗耳恭听
站务
【在 c*******y 的大作中提到】
: 今年的原油市场，我没仔细follow，还是看了不少东西，精彩纷呈啊。
: 有机会写点今年的WTI市场大事记, BRENT关注少些
c*y
16 楼
this was in May. Sohn conference.
Zach Schreiber is the founder and PM at PointState Capital LP, but he’s
known for having worked under Stanley Druckenmiller at Duquesne for six
years.
Druckenmiller comes out to introduce Zach. Schreiber wants to be net short
crude oil, “It’s going lower, much lower.” He wants to play advantaged
refiner stocks for upside.
“US crude is being drilled for by the same cast of characters who
oversupplied the natural gas market. Ladies and gentlemen, the song remains
the same.” Crude is demand-capped at the Gulf Coast because policy forbids
it being shipped for export as a raw commodity.
$33 billion net long WTI crude. “If you’re long, I’m sorry for you.”
Then he shows a clown car slide! He sees a boom in inventory in the second
half of this year. “What’s your risk reward? With crude at $100 a barrel,
you’re picking up 25 cents in front of an oncoming truck.”
Believes that crude is saturating demand and there’s nowhere to put all the
oil. “These barrels have nowhere else to go.” Imports present a similar
problem Saudi Arabia and Kuwait continues to sell to us because they must.
Does not believe Washington will act to allow wholesale lifting of the crude
export ban this year. Gulf Coast refiners are also tapped out on capacity
they’re running at 98%.
He doesn’t see production will slow meaningfully until we’re below 80-85
bucks a barrel.
Substantially lower crude prices are the only answer to the puzzle.
He likes the refiners who benefit from a wider spread between WTI and Brent,
which is going to be substantially bigger and more durable than the markets
foresee. He likes Valero and Marathon. He sees a cashflow windfall that’s
coming right back to shareholders.
“Crude strength has led to complacency, and complacency is a killer. The
oversupply of North American crude has yet to be felt.” He leaves us with a
classic quote from Rudiger Dornbusch: “In economics, crisis takes a much
longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you
would have thought.”
【在 b*****p 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢。
: 寄信人: deliver (自动发信系统)
: 标 题: 本站转帐通知单
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Oct 14 15:30:17 2014)
: 来 源: mitbbs.com
: bullpop，您好：
: 您转给 commodity,现金(伪币):188,收取手续费:1.88
: 同时附加了如下留言给 commodity.
: 预付稿费，洗耳恭听
: 站务
Zach Schreiber is the founder and PM at PointState Capital LP, but he’s
known for having worked under Stanley Druckenmiller at Duquesne for six
years.
Druckenmiller comes out to introduce Zach. Schreiber wants to be net short
crude oil, “It’s going lower, much lower.” He wants to play advantaged
refiner stocks for upside.
“US crude is being drilled for by the same cast of characters who
oversupplied the natural gas market. Ladies and gentlemen, the song remains
the same.” Crude is demand-capped at the Gulf Coast because policy forbids
it being shipped for export as a raw commodity.
$33 billion net long WTI crude. “If you’re long, I’m sorry for you.”
Then he shows a clown car slide! He sees a boom in inventory in the second
half of this year. “What’s your risk reward? With crude at $100 a barrel,
you’re picking up 25 cents in front of an oncoming truck.”
Believes that crude is saturating demand and there’s nowhere to put all the
oil. “These barrels have nowhere else to go.” Imports present a similar
problem Saudi Arabia and Kuwait continues to sell to us because they must.
Does not believe Washington will act to allow wholesale lifting of the crude
export ban this year. Gulf Coast refiners are also tapped out on capacity
they’re running at 98%.
He doesn’t see production will slow meaningfully until we’re below 80-85
bucks a barrel.
Substantially lower crude prices are the only answer to the puzzle.
He likes the refiners who benefit from a wider spread between WTI and Brent,
which is going to be substantially bigger and more durable than the markets
foresee. He likes Valero and Marathon. He sees a cashflow windfall that’s
coming right back to shareholders.
“Crude strength has led to complacency, and complacency is a killer. The
oversupply of North American crude has yet to be felt.” He leaves us with a
classic quote from Rudiger Dornbusch: “In economics, crisis takes a much
longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you
would have thought.”
【在 b*****p 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢。
: 寄信人: deliver (自动发信系统)
: 标 题: 本站转帐通知单
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Oct 14 15:30:17 2014)
: 来 源: mitbbs.com
: bullpop，您好：
: 您转给 commodity,现金(伪币):188,收取手续费:1.88
: 同时附加了如下留言给 commodity.
: 预付稿费，洗耳恭听
: 站务
c*y
17 楼
nevertheless, someone picked $7 instead of 25 cents before hitting by a
trunk.
no one alone could talk up or down this market. it's too deep.
remains
forbids
【在 c*******y 的大作中提到】
: this was in May. Sohn conference.
: Zach Schreiber is the founder and PM at PointState Capital LP, but he’s
: known for having worked under Stanley Druckenmiller at Duquesne for six
: years.
: Druckenmiller comes out to introduce Zach. Schreiber wants to be net short
: crude oil, “It’s going lower, much lower.” He wants to play advantaged
: refiner stocks for upside.
: “US crude is being drilled for by the same cast of characters who
: oversupplied the natural gas market. Ladies and gentlemen, the song remains
: the same.” Crude is demand-capped at the Gulf Coast because policy forbids
trunk.
no one alone could talk up or down this market. it's too deep.
remains
forbids
【在 c*******y 的大作中提到】
: this was in May. Sohn conference.
: Zach Schreiber is the founder and PM at PointState Capital LP, but he’s
: known for having worked under Stanley Druckenmiller at Duquesne for six
: years.
: Druckenmiller comes out to introduce Zach. Schreiber wants to be net short
: crude oil, “It’s going lower, much lower.” He wants to play advantaged
: refiner stocks for upside.
: “US crude is being drilled for by the same cast of characters who
: oversupplied the natural gas market. Ladies and gentlemen, the song remains
: the same.” Crude is demand-capped at the Gulf Coast because policy forbids
k*n
18 楼
赞！
remains
forbids
【在 c*******y 的大作中提到】
: this was in May. Sohn conference.
: Zach Schreiber is the founder and PM at PointState Capital LP, but he’s
: known for having worked under Stanley Druckenmiller at Duquesne for six
: years.
: Druckenmiller comes out to introduce Zach. Schreiber wants to be net short
: crude oil, “It’s going lower, much lower.” He wants to play advantaged
: refiner stocks for upside.
: “US crude is being drilled for by the same cast of characters who
: oversupplied the natural gas market. Ladies and gentlemen, the song remains
: the same.” Crude is demand-capped at the Gulf Coast because policy forbids
remains
forbids
【在 c*******y 的大作中提到】
: this was in May. Sohn conference.
: Zach Schreiber is the founder and PM at PointState Capital LP, but he’s
: known for having worked under Stanley Druckenmiller at Duquesne for six
: years.
: Druckenmiller comes out to introduce Zach. Schreiber wants to be net short
: crude oil, “It’s going lower, much lower.” He wants to play advantaged
: refiner stocks for upside.
: “US crude is being drilled for by the same cast of characters who
: oversupplied the natural gas market. Ladies and gentlemen, the song remains
: the same.” Crude is demand-capped at the Gulf Coast because policy forbids
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