a*m
2 楼
同求。。
亏废了
亏废了
s*1
3 楼
ER前的砸盘，爆乳，唯有爆乳!
G*p
4 楼
等老李的分析，感觉还得跌啊。。
O*N
5 楼
What’s Wrong With Gilead Sciences? （ZZ)
By Ben Levisohn
The market is in rally mode today–but the same can’t be said for Gilead
Sciences (GILD), which has dropped nearly 2% today. RBC Capital Markets’
Michael Yee and team explain why Gilead is having trouble today:
Gilead Sciences is down ~4% this morning and some investors believe it is
due to commentary by Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) (we were on the EPS call and
they did not say anything specific, they just said they will work to make
Olysio accessible and it will remain competitive, some investors think
Olysio price will get cut — but, in our view, logically – if Sovaldi is
still $84k, then Olysio does not have much of any room to go if you can just
get Harvoni for $94k…..). Others think it is due to concerns around AbbVie
(ABBV) needing to come in a low price (we predict this will not happen, it
will be close to Sovaldi pricing) or Irish tax concerns, which we wrote
about twice suggesting minimal impact here to Gilead Sciences.
Johnson & Johnson’s Olysio Q3 WW sales were $796M (-4% Q/Q), where US was
light at -7% Q/Q ($671M) as expected but offset by +18% Q/Q growth ($125M)
OUS. Using our detailed Sovaldi-Olysio calculator APP (email us for a
working copy) this implies Gilead could report Sovaldi sales of $2.2-2.35B.
However, we believe Gilead might come in the lower end of this because of
inventory drawdown (eg $100-300M).
Thus reported Q3 USA Sovaldi sales could be light due to inventory drawdown
e.g., $2.1-2.3B vs an estimated USA consensus of around $2.4.2.5B. On the
positive — VA and prison sales could add $100M or so, so reported sales
could be a little higher around $2.3-2.4B. Bottom line in our view is that
this shouldn’t matter because this is mostly all due to warehousing and
drawdown ahead of all-oral Harvoni, which just got approved and is available
this week.
By Ben Levisohn
The market is in rally mode today–but the same can’t be said for Gilead
Sciences (GILD), which has dropped nearly 2% today. RBC Capital Markets’
Michael Yee and team explain why Gilead is having trouble today:
Gilead Sciences is down ~4% this morning and some investors believe it is
due to commentary by Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) (we were on the EPS call and
they did not say anything specific, they just said they will work to make
Olysio accessible and it will remain competitive, some investors think
Olysio price will get cut — but, in our view, logically – if Sovaldi is
still $84k, then Olysio does not have much of any room to go if you can just
get Harvoni for $94k…..). Others think it is due to concerns around AbbVie
(ABBV) needing to come in a low price (we predict this will not happen, it
will be close to Sovaldi pricing) or Irish tax concerns, which we wrote
about twice suggesting minimal impact here to Gilead Sciences.
Johnson & Johnson’s Olysio Q3 WW sales were $796M (-4% Q/Q), where US was
light at -7% Q/Q ($671M) as expected but offset by +18% Q/Q growth ($125M)
OUS. Using our detailed Sovaldi-Olysio calculator APP (email us for a
working copy) this implies Gilead could report Sovaldi sales of $2.2-2.35B.
However, we believe Gilead might come in the lower end of this because of
inventory drawdown (eg $100-300M).
Thus reported Q3 USA Sovaldi sales could be light due to inventory drawdown
e.g., $2.1-2.3B vs an estimated USA consensus of around $2.4.2.5B. On the
positive — VA and prison sales could add $100M or so, so reported sales
could be a little higher around $2.3-2.4B. Bottom line in our view is that
this shouldn’t matter because this is mostly all due to warehousing and
drawdown ahead of all-oral Harvoni, which just got approved and is available
this week.
l*i
6 楼
有啥好分析的啊。他们那个全口服的丙肝药已经批了，将长期统治丙肝药市场，什么
ABBV，MRK，JNJ呀，都得靠边站，毕竟他们的药有先发优势，抢占了市场，药物效果又
好。但短期面临ER，收入和利润可能会BEAT，但丙肝药销售MISS的可能性大，因为很多
病人都在等这个全口服的药，JNJ公布他们那个丙肝药销售额下降后GILD跟着大跌。想
买的可以等ER后再决定，GILD的ER向来表现不好
ABBV，MRK，JNJ呀，都得靠边站，毕竟他们的药有先发优势，抢占了市场，药物效果又
好。但短期面临ER，收入和利润可能会BEAT，但丙肝药销售MISS的可能性大，因为很多
病人都在等这个全口服的药，JNJ公布他们那个丙肝药销售额下降后GILD跟着大跌。想
买的可以等ER后再决定，GILD的ER向来表现不好
L*k
7 楼
最后一句好像不对。 对的话就200威逼了。
【在 l********i 的大作中提到】
: 有啥好分析的啊。他们那个全口服的丙肝药已经批了，将长期统治丙肝药市场，什么
: ABBV，MRK，JNJ呀，都得靠边站，毕竟他们的药有先发优势，抢占了市场，药物效果又
: 好。但短期面临ER，收入和利润可能会BEAT，但丙肝药销售MISS的可能性大，因为很多
: 病人都在等这个全口服的药，JNJ公布他们那个丙肝药销售额下降后GILD跟着大跌。想
: 买的可以等ER后再决定，GILD的ER向来表现不好
【在 l********i 的大作中提到】
: 有啥好分析的啊。他们那个全口服的丙肝药已经批了，将长期统治丙肝药市场，什么
: ABBV，MRK，JNJ呀，都得靠边站，毕竟他们的药有先发优势，抢占了市场，药物效果又
: 好。但短期面临ER，收入和利润可能会BEAT，但丙肝药销售MISS的可能性大，因为很多
: 病人都在等这个全口服的药，JNJ公布他们那个丙肝药销售额下降后GILD跟着大跌。想
: 买的可以等ER后再决定，GILD的ER向来表现不好
s*1
8 楼
也未必，这次随大盘砸盘，ER后爆拉可能性很大。
【在 l********i 的大作中提到】
: 有啥好分析的啊。他们那个全口服的丙肝药已经批了，将长期统治丙肝药市场，什么
: ABBV，MRK，JNJ呀，都得靠边站，毕竟他们的药有先发优势，抢占了市场，药物效果又
: 好。但短期面临ER，收入和利润可能会BEAT，但丙肝药销售MISS的可能性大，因为很多
: 病人都在等这个全口服的药，JNJ公布他们那个丙肝药销售额下降后GILD跟着大跌。想
: 买的可以等ER后再决定，GILD的ER向来表现不好
【在 l********i 的大作中提到】
: 有啥好分析的啊。他们那个全口服的丙肝药已经批了，将长期统治丙肝药市场，什么
: ABBV，MRK，JNJ呀，都得靠边站，毕竟他们的药有先发优势，抢占了市场，药物效果又
: 好。但短期面临ER，收入和利润可能会BEAT，但丙肝药销售MISS的可能性大，因为很多
: 病人都在等这个全口服的药，JNJ公布他们那个丙肝药销售额下降后GILD跟着大跌。想
: 买的可以等ER后再决定，GILD的ER向来表现不好
l*i
9 楼
你查查ER的表现，多数是高开低走，甚至下跌
【在 L*****k 的大作中提到】
: 最后一句好像不对。 对的话就200威逼了。
【在 L*****k 的大作中提到】
: 最后一句好像不对。 对的话就200威逼了。
L*k
10 楼
ER hao ，上割ER爆了啊
【在 l********i 的大作中提到】
: 你查查ER的表现，多数是高开低走，甚至下跌
【在 l********i 的大作中提到】
: 你查查ER的表现，多数是高开低走，甚至下跌
s*1
11 楼
长期来说，这点涨跌算个毛。小散不可能捞底最好的deal,现在进也不算亏。
【在 l********i 的大作中提到】
: 你查查ER的表现，多数是高开低走，甚至下跌
【在 l********i 的大作中提到】
: 你查查ER的表现，多数是高开低走，甚至下跌
l*t
12 楼
en, and insiders are always selling
：你查查ER的表现，多数是高开低走，甚至下跌
：【 在 Lowrisk (以月结算) 的大作中提到: 】
：你查查ER的表现，多数是高开低走，甚至下跌
：【 在 Lowrisk (以月结算) 的大作中提到: 】
s*1
13 楼
老李，请伪币奖励！
【在 s****1 的大作中提到】
: 长期来说，这点涨跌算个毛。小散不可能捞底最好的deal,现在进也不算亏。
【在 s****1 的大作中提到】
: 长期来说，这点涨跌算个毛。小散不可能捞底最好的deal,现在进也不算亏。
s*1
14 楼
日，老李跑了
l*i
15 楼
老李把伪币看得比真钱还重，你向他要伪币？
【在 s****1 的大作中提到】
: 老李，请伪币奖励！
【在 s****1 的大作中提到】
: 老李，请伪币奖励！
L*k
16 楼
嗯，知我者，龙也！
【在 l********i 的大作中提到】
: 老李把伪币看得比真钱还重，你向他要伪币？
【在 l********i 的大作中提到】
: 老李把伪币看得比真钱还重，你向他要伪币？
S*9
17 楼
差不多就是这样了，我再补充一个，gild家的shares buy back威力也很大
【在 l********i 的大作中提到】
: 有啥好分析的啊。他们那个全口服的丙肝药已经批了，将长期统治丙肝药市场，什么
: ABBV，MRK，JNJ呀，都得靠边站，毕竟他们的药有先发优势，抢占了市场，药物效果又
: 好。但短期面临ER，收入和利润可能会BEAT，但丙肝药销售MISS的可能性大，因为很多
: 病人都在等这个全口服的药，JNJ公布他们那个丙肝药销售额下降后GILD跟着大跌。想
: 买的可以等ER后再决定，GILD的ER向来表现不好
【在 l********i 的大作中提到】
: 有啥好分析的啊。他们那个全口服的丙肝药已经批了，将长期统治丙肝药市场，什么
: ABBV，MRK，JNJ呀，都得靠边站，毕竟他们的药有先发优势，抢占了市场，药物效果又
: 好。但短期面临ER，收入和利润可能会BEAT，但丙肝药销售MISS的可能性大，因为很多
: 病人都在等这个全口服的药，JNJ公布他们那个丙肝药销售额下降后GILD跟着大跌。想
: 买的可以等ER后再决定，GILD的ER向来表现不好
p*p
18 楼
GILD - any pullback is a buy now.
This GEM is for long term in couple years it will keep growing. Of course,
HCV patient will be less and less in the US but they are selling low cost
version around the world and that's millions HCV patients out there. GILD
get a pop for every drug those generic company sell.....
Also, Jap, EUR all go for it now and they can afford to pay high premium for
the drug.
They already have the market share and can do a lot with that power. Other
companies can not complete with them and they won't and can sell their
version of the HCV drug at much lower price.
In addition, they have many more in their pipeline so mark this and come
back in half year to evaluate the price.
This GEM is for long term in couple years it will keep growing. Of course,
HCV patient will be less and less in the US but they are selling low cost
version around the world and that's millions HCV patients out there. GILD
get a pop for every drug those generic company sell.....
Also, Jap, EUR all go for it now and they can afford to pay high premium for
the drug.
They already have the market share and can do a lot with that power. Other
companies can not complete with them and they won't and can sell their
version of the HCV drug at much lower price.
In addition, they have many more in their pipeline so mark this and come
back in half year to evaluate the price.
p*p
19 楼
BTW, I bought this it at $95 two days ago when the market plunged and sold
today at $101. I am long for GILD but I think next week there will be any
other wave of pull back coming in. So we can capitalize for now and buy in
later.
Intermediate target price still around $125 by year end and $150 in half
year.
today at $101. I am long for GILD but I think next week there will be any
other wave of pull back coming in. So we can capitalize for now and buy in
later.
Intermediate target price still around $125 by year end and $150 in half
year.
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