Dow only 50% chance to move up in 2015?# Stock
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A bear market in stocks just became more likely
https://secure.marketwatch.com/story/a-bear-market-in-stocks-just-became-
more-likely-2015-01-05?siteid=yhoof2
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Bad news, investors: The Dow Industrials
’ 300-plus-point drop Monday markedly increases the likelihood that the
bull market has neared its end — if it hasn’t already.
That’s because the stock market’s performance in the first two trading
days of January has a surprisingly good record of forecasting the direction
for the next 12 months.
The accompanying table reflects historical data back to 1896, when the Dow
Jones Industrial Average was created.
When the Dow for the first two trading days of the year posts a ... The
Dow’s average gain over the remainder of the year...
% of time the Dow rises for the remainder of the year
Gain 10.9% 75%
Loss 2.8% 51%
Those differences are significant at the 95% confidence level that
statisticians typically use to determine if a pattern is genuine.
https://secure.marketwatch.com/story/a-bear-market-in-stocks-just-became-
more-likely-2015-01-05?siteid=yhoof2
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Bad news, investors: The Dow Industrials
’ 300-plus-point drop Monday markedly increases the likelihood that the
bull market has neared its end — if it hasn’t already.
That’s because the stock market’s performance in the first two trading
days of January has a surprisingly good record of forecasting the direction
for the next 12 months.
The accompanying table reflects historical data back to 1896, when the Dow
Jones Industrial Average was created.
When the Dow for the first two trading days of the year posts a ... The
Dow’s average gain over the remainder of the year...
% of time the Dow rises for the remainder of the year
Gain 10.9% 75%
Loss 2.8% 51%
Those differences are significant at the 95% confidence level that
statisticians typically use to determine if a pattern is genuine.