石油storage capacity 满了后, 还会有一次大暴跌# Stock
s*h
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看下面新闻的数据,美国石油storage capacity 60%满了, commercial storage 75%满
了,等都全满了看来还要有一次暴跌
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/01/25/why-oil-prices
One final collapse?
In the long run -- barring an unexpected intervention by OPEC -- oil prices
will stabilize around the marginal long-run cost of production (including
the cost of capital spending). This level is almost certainly higher than
the current price, but well below the $100 a barrel level that's been common
since 2011.
However, things could get worse for the oil industry before they get better.
U.S. inventories of oil and refined products have been rising by about 10
million barrels a week recently. The global supply demand balance isn't
expected to improve until Q3, and it could worsen again in the first half of
2016 due to the typical seasonal drop in demand.
As a result, global oil storage capacity could become tight. Last month, the
IEA found that U.S. petroleum storage capacity was only 60% full, but
commercial crude oil inventory was at 75% of storage capacity.
This percentage could rise quickly when refiners begin to cut output in Q2
for the seasonal switch to summer gasoline blends. Traders have even begun
booking supertankers as floating oil storage facilities, aiming to buy crude
on the cheap today and sell it at a higher price this summer or next year.
If oil storage capacity becomes scarce later this year, oil prices will have
to fall even further so that some existing oil fields become cash flow
negative. That's the only way to ensure an immediate drop in production (as
opposed to a reduction in investment, which gradually impacts production).
Any such drop in oil prices will be a short-term phenomenon. At today's
prices, oil investment will not be sufficient to keep output up in 2016.
Thus, T. Boone Pickens is probably right that oil prices will recover in the
next 12 months-18 months, even if his prediction of $100 oil is too
aggressive. But with oil storage capacity becoming scarcer by the day, it's
still too early to call a bottom for oil.
了,等都全满了看来还要有一次暴跌
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/01/25/why-oil-prices
One final collapse?
In the long run -- barring an unexpected intervention by OPEC -- oil prices
will stabilize around the marginal long-run cost of production (including
the cost of capital spending). This level is almost certainly higher than
the current price, but well below the $100 a barrel level that's been common
since 2011.
However, things could get worse for the oil industry before they get better.
U.S. inventories of oil and refined products have been rising by about 10
million barrels a week recently. The global supply demand balance isn't
expected to improve until Q3, and it could worsen again in the first half of
2016 due to the typical seasonal drop in demand.
As a result, global oil storage capacity could become tight. Last month, the
IEA found that U.S. petroleum storage capacity was only 60% full, but
commercial crude oil inventory was at 75% of storage capacity.
This percentage could rise quickly when refiners begin to cut output in Q2
for the seasonal switch to summer gasoline blends. Traders have even begun
booking supertankers as floating oil storage facilities, aiming to buy crude
on the cheap today and sell it at a higher price this summer or next year.
If oil storage capacity becomes scarce later this year, oil prices will have
to fall even further so that some existing oil fields become cash flow
negative. That's the only way to ensure an immediate drop in production (as
opposed to a reduction in investment, which gradually impacts production).
Any such drop in oil prices will be a short-term phenomenon. At today's
prices, oil investment will not be sufficient to keep output up in 2016.
Thus, T. Boone Pickens is probably right that oil prices will recover in the
next 12 months-18 months, even if his prediction of $100 oil is too
aggressive. But with oil storage capacity becoming scarcer by the day, it's
still too early to call a bottom for oil.
