A down January is good for the S&P 500, 75% of the time - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

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A down January is good for the S&P 500, 75% of the time

A down January is good for the S&P 500, 75% of the time# Stock

L*n2015-01-31 08:01

1 楼

Looking back over the past 25 years, when the S&P 500 was down 2% or more
for the month, 75% of the time it ended higher by years end! The average
gain was just under 8% for the year. Two times, a down January, was bad for
the S&P in the past 25 years ( 2000 and 2008).
＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝
i don't see any similarity of now vs 2000 or 2008. Low commodity is a plus
for majority of business's bottom line.

x*92015-01-31 08:01

2 楼

哈哈。。。看来今年绝对安全。。。周期是八年。。。2000。。。2008。。。2016。。
。2024

S*n2015-01-31 08:01

3 楼

Low commodity signals deflation then recession, my friend.

for

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】

: Looking back over the past 25 years, when the S&P 500 was down 2% or more
: for the month, 75% of the time it ended higher by years end! The average
: gain was just under 8% for the year. Two times, a down January, was bad for
: the S&P in the past 25 years ( 2000 and 2008).
: ＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝
: i don't see any similarity of now vs 2000 or 2008. Low commodity is a plus
: for majority of business's bottom line.

a*t2015-01-31 08:01

4 楼

啊~
不能在这么上上下下地折腾了，俺的小心脏已经受不了了。

for

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】

L*n2015-01-31 08:01

5 楼

Commodity burst up because of China. Now return to their normal level, also
because of China. Not necessarily indicate recession. US economy is 75%
service, the rest of it high tech. Raw materials need is much less then
prior cycle. How much iron ore do u need to make an iPhone?

【在 S*******n 的大作中提到】

: Low commodity signals deflation then recession, my friend.
:
: for

c*w2015-01-31 08:01

6 楼

xlf下周大宝爹的图形，95%准确率。
抄底dfs的心里要有底，此股前些年长时间pe在10以下。

T*R2015-01-31 08:01

7 楼

你这个置信区间是多少？75%？

L*n2015-01-31 08:01

8 楼

SO FAR SO GOOD.

L*n2015-01-31 08:01

9 楼

不想开新帖了，就在这旧帖下加几句：
＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝
发信人: Lexian (蒙古大夫), 信区: Stock
标题: Re: 2月新高在即，3月开始大幅回调。 (转载)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Feb 16 09:40:04 2015, 美东)
小小又回来了，好久不见。你觉得三月大跌会是什么理由呢？加息？我倒是觉得三
月放风推迟加息然后市场大涨的可能更大。没有通涨的形势下Fed加息只会加速美元上
涨。引发更多的不定。
＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝
http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2013/09/19/101048254-8622237826_157c26f9a0_k.530x298.jpg?v=1381319524
耶大妈二月底就开始吹风推迟加息了。小嘴一张就把N多帐户吹到all time high. 太
牛逼了。给大妈一个thumbs up. 下面看市场会怎么走。这周重磅的新闻是国内的减
息，周五的消息大户们忙着OE，感觉上还没在股市上反应出来。历史上三四月份极少
turn around, 很像都是continuation pattern. 应该是继续小幅上涨。在四月底靠近
2200的位置。 KNOCK ON WOOD!

for

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】

: SO FAR SO GOOD.

L*n2015-01-31 08:01

10 楼

NM想看就看不想看就一边去。

a*t2015-01-31 08:01

11 楼

帅啊！最喜欢看大夫一览众山小的豪放,lol。今天看到信息，国内宣布减息，但众多小
银行立刻宣布利息浮动上升，我不关心a股，只是想问一下你对此举对世界游资可能的
影响怎么看？叶奶奶的措辞恐怕不得不模棱两可，因为周五的通胀数字是负的，六月份
加息不加息立刻画问号。

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】

: NM想看就看不想看就一边去。

L*n2015-01-31 08:01

12 楼

恭喜你的CXXX，刚说它是慢牛，就暴涨了。不过周五的candle比较bearish. 可以取
些利了。
F 我还拿着。现在是两个位置的ITMcall. 16.7是强阻，这里要耐心。
国内减息， RMB已经跌破0.16的支撑，双顶出来了，趋势仍然是美元回流，美元资
产÷股市看好。最近开始实施不动产登记，开始为不动产税做准备，国内房市的资
金会加速外流。 DXY走了一个小牛期上周突破, 上看98.

【在 a*******t 的大作中提到】

: 帅啊！最喜欢看大夫一览众山小的豪放,lol。今天看到信息，国内宣布减息，但众多小
: 银行立刻宣布利息浮动上升，我不关心a股，只是想问一下你对此举对世界游资可能的
: 影响怎么看？叶奶奶的措辞恐怕不得不模棱两可，因为周五的通胀数字是负的，六月份
: 加息不加息立刻画问号。

L*n2015-01-31 08:01

13 楼

去年11月的CNY说是lower high, now it's lower high and lower low:-)

【在 L****n 的大作中提到】

: 恭喜你的CXXX，刚说它是慢牛，就暴涨了。不过周五的candle比较bearish. 可以取
: 些利了。
: F 我还拿着。现在是两个位置的ITMcall. 16.7是强阻，这里要耐心。
: 国内减息， RMB已经跌破0.16的支撑，双顶出来了，趋势仍然是美元回流，美元资
: 产÷股市看好。最近开始实施不动产登记，开始为不动产税做准备，国内房市的资
: 金会加速外流。 DXY走了一个小牛期上周突破, 上看98.

d*02015-01-31 08:01

14 楼

前头miss 了这个帖子。
大夫说的好。上周 Yellon 不敢提加息，大约就是为了这个顾虑。所以说，要边走
边看。
至于这月 17/18 的fomc, 不知道会说些啥。。又恰巧是大OE 周。。令人遐想啊。。
发信人: Lexian (蒙古大夫), 信区: Stock
标题: Re: 2月新高在即，3月开始大幅回调。 (转载)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Feb 16 09:40:04 2015, 美东)
小小又回来了，好久不见。你觉得三月大跌会是什么理由呢？加息？我倒是觉得三
月放风推迟加息然后市场大涨的可能更大。没有通涨的形势下Fed加息只会加速美元上
涨。引发更多的不定。

d*02015-01-31 08:01

15 楼

http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20150301/FREE/150309999/f
Fed Vice Chair Fischer says rate hike most likely June or September
Mar 1, 2015 @ 7:18 am
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said on Friday the central
bank looked most likely to raise interest rates in June or September,
although economic developments might warrant different timing for liftoff.
“I don't think there is an emphasis on June instead of September” Mr.
Fischer told a monetary policy forum in New York. He added that judged by
the views of Fed officials and investors “it seems those two months get the
main weight of probability.”
At the same time, he said, “things could happen” that could change those
assumptions. “We will make a decision and we will make it on the basis of
evidence.”
Fed Chair Janet Yellen this week began to prepare the ground for an interest
-rate increase this year for the first time since 2006, without saying that
a move was imminent. In testimony to Congress, she signaled that the central
bank might drop its pledge to be “patient,” which would mean that rates
could be raised at any meeting.