今年六月油大跌的完美风暴？# Stock
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The Perfect Storm For Oil Hits In Two Months: US Crude Production To Soar
Just As Storage Runs Out
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/21/2015 17:58 -0400
Less than two weeks ago we warned that based on the current oil production
trend, the US may run out of storage for crude as soon as June.
This is what we said back in early March when the BTFDers were hoping WTI in
the low $40s would never again be seen:
Come June, when all available on-land storage is exhausted, each
incremental barrel will have to be dumped on the market forcing prices lower
and inflicting further pain on the entire US shale complex (just as Q1
results are released which will invariably show huge writedowns as companies
will no longer be able to hide behind the SEC-mandated accounting trick
that made Q4 results appear respectable). Here's Soc Gen: "...oil markets
can be impatient and prices could drop considerably lower. As we have
written previously, we are currently more concerned about downside risk than
upside risk."
Since then, as expected, crude tumbled to new post-Lehman lows, confirming
the global deflationary wave is raging (for more details please see China),
and WTI only posted a rebound on quad-witching Friday as another algo-driven
stop hunt spooked all those who were short the energy complex.
The problem is that despite the latest "dead oil bounce" we have since had
to revise our forecast for full US oil storage, and pulled forward the date
when this will happen in the aftermath of the latest API inventory data.
Recall that earlier this week API reported, and EIA later confirmed, that
for the 10th week in a row there was a "massive 10.5 million barrels (far
bigger than the 3.1 million barrel expectation) and a 3 million barrel build
at Cushing. If this holds for DOE data tomorrow (and worryingly API has
tended to underestimate the build in recent weeks) it will be the biggest
weekly build since 2001."
太长，只转开头一点点
The Perfect Storm For Oil Hits In Two Months: US Crude Production To Soar
Just As Storage Runs Out
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/21/2015 17:58 -0400
Less than two weeks ago we warned that based on the current oil production
trend, the US may run out of storage for crude as soon as June.
This is what we said back in early March when the BTFDers were hoping WTI in
the low $40s would never again be seen:
Come June, when all available on-land storage is exhausted, each
incremental barrel will have to be dumped on the market forcing prices lower
and inflicting further pain on the entire US shale complex (just as Q1
results are released which will invariably show huge writedowns as companies
will no longer be able to hide behind the SEC-mandated accounting trick
that made Q4 results appear respectable). Here's Soc Gen: "...oil markets
can be impatient and prices could drop considerably lower. As we have
written previously, we are currently more concerned about downside risk than
upside risk."
Since then, as expected, crude tumbled to new post-Lehman lows, confirming
the global deflationary wave is raging (for more details please see China),
and WTI only posted a rebound on quad-witching Friday as another algo-driven
stop hunt spooked all those who were short the energy complex.
The problem is that despite the latest "dead oil bounce" we have since had
to revise our forecast for full US oil storage, and pulled forward the date
when this will happen in the aftermath of the latest API inventory data.
Recall that earlier this week API reported, and EIA later confirmed, that
for the 10th week in a row there was a "massive 10.5 million barrels (far
bigger than the 3.1 million barrel expectation) and a 3 million barrel build
at Cushing. If this holds for DOE data tomorrow (and worryingly API has
tended to underestimate the build in recent weeks) it will be the biggest
weekly build since 2001."
太长，只转开头一点点
