Re: 至少短期未来属于混合动力型的汽车。 - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

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Re: 至少短期未来属于混合动力型的汽车。

Re: 至少短期未来属于混合动力型的汽车。# Stock

S*C2015-04-07 07:04

1 楼

You don't get it. Building significant extra capacity that most time
will not be used is a no go for utility companies. Who will build those
power plants and power grids? tesla, car owners?
[在 Ozil (Bremen) 的大作中提到：]
：无所谓反正每辆车都交了2500刀又不是特斯拉自己掏腰包
：【在 SOFC (SOFC) 的大作中提到: 】
：...........

f*e2015-04-07 07:04

2 楼

SCTY will

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: You don't get it. Building significant extra capacity that most time
: will not be used is a no go for utility companies. Who will build those
: power plants and power grids? tesla, car owners?
: [在 Ozil (Bremen) 的大作中提到：]
: ：无所谓反正每辆车都交了2500刀又不是特斯拉自己掏腰包
: ：【在 SOFC (SOFC) 的大作中提到: 】
: ：...........

O*l2015-04-07 07:04

3 楼

scty
tsla+scty 摆脱对脆弱电网的依赖

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

S*C2015-04-07 07:04

4 楼

When they are not in the business to make money, sure they can do anything.
Not surprisingly, the big boys are not in the business to build 500 MW
capacity for 5 MW average usage.

【在 O**l 的大作中提到】

: scty
: tsla+scty 摆脱对脆弱电网的依赖

O*l2015-04-07 07:04

5 楼

等他们赚钱的时候就是从能源到交通天翻地覆的时候了

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: When they are not in the business to make money, sure they can do anything.
: Not surprisingly, the big boys are not in the business to build 500 MW
: capacity for 5 MW average usage.

S*C2015-04-07 07:04

6 楼

A utility will never make money by building 500 MW capacity for 5 MW average
usage.

【在 O**l 的大作中提到】

: 等他们赚钱的时候就是从能源到交通天翻地覆的时候了

O*l2015-04-07 07:04

7 楼

哪需要100倍capacity 这其实是个负载平衡+全局优化的问题
你还是没理解每个超冲里面的那块电池和全部联网的意义

average

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: A utility will never make money by building 500 MW capacity for 5 MW average
: usage.

S*C2015-04-07 07:04

8 楼

The battery in supercharge serves as buffer correct? It would be fine as
long EV is a niche, that is, as long as it is not frequently used such that
it often gets depleted, otherwise, you still need that many peak power come
into the charge station.
Tell us what "global optimization" mean. Tesla intends to build private
power grid to connect all charge station or what?

【在 O**l 的大作中提到】

: 哪需要100倍capacity 这其实是个负载平衡+全局优化的问题
: 你还是没理解每个超冲里面的那块电池和全部联网的意义
:
: average

O*l2015-04-07 07:04

9 楼

车和充电站都是联网的实时交互车被算法指引到最优的充电桩
由于每辆车2500刀所以每50辆车就会增加一个充电站
每辆车每年的使用几率只有燃油车1/100
根本不肯能出现全局buffer全空+全局同时充电的情况

that
come

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: The battery in supercharge serves as buffer correct? It would be fine as
: long EV is a niche, that is, as long as it is not frequently used such that
: it often gets depleted, otherwise, you still need that many peak power come
: into the charge station.
: Tell us what "global optimization" mean. Tesla intends to build private
: power grid to connect all charge station or what?

O*l2015-04-07 07:04

10 楼

就算出现最坏情况假设tesla把每辆车的充点钱贪了三年不新增充电站
出现全局buffer全空+全局同时充电
充电桩内部都是有算法控制的一定会把功率降到一个电网能承受的范围

【在 O**l 的大作中提到】

: 车和充电站都是联网的实时交互车被算法指引到最优的充电桩
: 由于每辆车2500刀所以每50辆车就会增加一个充电站
: 每辆车每年的使用几率只有燃油车1/100
: 根本不肯能出现全局buffer全空+全局同时充电的情况
:
: that
: come

O*l2015-04-07 07:04

11 楼

所以IT能力很重要
传统车厂肯定没戏

S*C2015-04-07 07:04

12 楼

每辆车每年的使用几率只有燃油车1/100, how do you get that number?
So I cannot go to the nearest station, and have to drive 20+ miles to get
charge? Why should I do that? That is DOA.
Again, it sounds good/workable when EV is a niche, not so much when it gets
good penetration.

【在 O**l 的大作中提到】

O*l2015-04-07 07:04

13 楼

第一个问题电车平常只在家充电
只有跑长途才会用超冲
第二问题明显是规划问题你最近不一定最急特斯拉最新6.2系统任何车后台强制每30
秒和周围所有
充电站交互一遍然后算法决定引导每个人都合适的充电桩
最新系统连每个人将要到哪个充电桩需要多少时间充电都算出来了
充电时间取决于车到达时充电桩里buffer的电量和车自身的电量

gets

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: 每辆车每年的使用几率只有燃油车1/100, how do you get that number?
: So I cannot go to the nearest station, and have to drive 20+ miles to get
: charge? Why should I do that? That is DOA.
: Again, it sounds good/workable when EV is a niche, not so much when it gets
: good penetration.

S*C2015-04-07 07:04

14 楼

Let's say a charge station peak power 200 kW, 10 car charges simultaneously,
how long it takes to get a full charge (60 kWh)? Yeah the grid can tolerate
, but the customers won't tolerate to wait for 3 hrs.

【在 O**l 的大作中提到】

: 就算出现最坏情况假设tesla把每辆车的充点钱贪了三年不新增充电站
: 出现全局buffer全空+全局同时充电
: 充电桩内部都是有算法控制的一定会把功率降到一个电网能承受的范围

S*C2015-04-07 07:04

15 楼

Then you need to have utility to build peak capacity but do not get much
average usage increase, why utility want to do that? Again, it would be fine
for niche, but not workable for good penetration.

【在 O**l 的大作中提到】

: 第一个问题电车平常只在家充电
: 只有跑长途才会用超冲
: 第二问题明显是规划问题你最近不一定最急特斯拉最新6.2系统任何车后台强制每30
: 秒和周围所有
: 充电站交互一遍然后算法决定引导每个人都合适的充电桩
: 最新系统连每个人将要到哪个充电桩需要多少时间充电都算出来了
: 充电时间取决于车到达时充电桩里buffer的电量和车自身的电量
:
: gets

O*l2015-04-07 07:04

16 楼

一个充电站 4个桩
每个桩里面有个200kwh电池电少了就从电网慢速补
车充电都是直接从电池高速取不直接和电网打交道
如果4个桩buffer够就引导车来不够就引导到别充电站

simultaneously,
tolerate

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: Let's say a charge station peak power 200 kW, 10 car charges simultaneously,
: how long it takes to get a full charge (60 kWh)? Yeah the grid can tolerate
: , but the customers won't tolerate to wait for 3 hrs.

O*l2015-04-07 07:04

17 楼

海量buffer+全局规划根本不可能有需要peak capacity的情况

fine

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: Then you need to have utility to build peak capacity but do not get much
: average usage increase, why utility want to do that? Again, it would be fine
: for niche, but not workable for good penetration.

O*l2015-04-07 07:04

18 楼

这个问题很有意思
不过今天有点累到此为止

S*C2015-04-07 07:04

19 楼

So essentially you are asking people to drive around to get charge, and you
believe customers would tolerate that.

【在 O**l 的大作中提到】

: 一个充电站 4个桩
: 每个桩里面有个200kwh电池电少了就从电网慢速补
: 车充电都是直接从电池高速取不直接和电网打交道
: 如果4个桩buffer够就引导车来不够就引导到别充电站
:
: simultaneously,
: tolerate

S*C2015-04-07 07:04

20 楼

That is related to charge at home. You are telling me home charger also get
big battery?

【在 O**l 的大作中提到】

: 海量buffer+全局规划根本不可能有需要peak capacity的情况
:
: fine

O*l2015-04-07 07:04

21 楼

你可以看超冲的地图
都是沿高速建一条线n多
6.2系统的规划算法是和navigation系统合在一起的引导你去这条路上能到的下一个超冲
为啥不能忍受

you

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: So essentially you are asking people to drive around to get charge, and you
: believe customers would tolerate that.

O*l2015-04-07 07:04

22 楼

特斯拉家冲是慢冲一小时只有8kwh 给你晚上睡觉冲的
这电网都不能忍受？而且还在晚上
怪不得musk 4.30要出家用电池做buffer

get

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: That is related to charge at home. You are telling me home charger also get
: big battery?

S*C2015-04-07 07:04

23 楼

Possibly not at summer in the south, two EV per family and if half families
get EV.
Buffer is the way to go, but buffer is not free.

【在 O**l 的大作中提到】

: 特斯拉家冲是慢冲一小时只有8kwh 给你晚上睡觉冲的
: 这电网都不能忍受？而且还在晚上
: 怪不得musk 4.30要出家用电池做buffer
:
: get

v*e2015-04-07 07:04

24 楼

到了那一天，大规模出现了那样的问题的时候，TELSA股票估计已经一千多了吧。。。

families

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: Possibly not at summer in the south, two EV per family and if half families
: get EV.
: Buffer is the way to go, but buffer is not free.

S*C2015-04-07 07:04

25 楼

Given the utilities are even concerned about Volt and alike, I guess it won'
t take much EV to knock some community off the grid. When it happens, it
would be nasty.
8 kW is more than 6x of daily average, so it is not a small number.
[在 vankie (新浪微博@洛城王二) 的大作中提到：]
：到了那一天，大规模出现了那样的问题的时候，TELSA股票估计已经一千多了吧。。。
：
：...........

k*l2015-04-07 07:04

26 楼

这个讨论养分很大，你们继续
俺学习学习

won'
。。

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: Given the utilities are even concerned about Volt and alike, I guess it won'
: t take much EV to knock some community off the grid. When it happens, it
: would be nasty.
: 8 kW is more than 6x of daily average, so it is not a small number.
: [在 vankie (新浪微博@洛城王二) 的大作中提到：]
: ：到了那一天，大规模出现了那样的问题的时候，TELSA股票估计已经一千多了吧。。。
: ：
: ：...........

k*l2015-04-07 07:04

27 楼

开Tesla 的人不会每天都跑200 mile，他们每天需要充的电量和开 volt 的人差不了多
少，只是 peak power 可能高些（这个可以软件优化--如果有一天PGE 按max power
收费了，就像Comcast一样，那样在家充电速度就有必要优化了）

won'
。。

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

v*e2015-04-07 07:04

28 楼

as I read your posts and come to think of it... maybe this is why Tesla
thinks it needs to do something in the home energy storage business so early
on. I mean, it's kind of counterintuitive when you first look at it,
because batteries are the scarce resource right now so it's like why waste
them on something that doesn't seem so urgent compared with making cars...
well, maybe it is pretty urgent because of what you just said.

won'
。。

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

E*r2015-04-07 07:04

29 楼

These are exactly the hurdles in the sequential order that Tesla is facing.
On the one hand, these infrastructures need to be remodeled to be ready for
a sales boom but on the other hand,it is equally possible that this luxury
may not be fully taken advantage of, especially at the stage where the
predicted explosion of e-vehicles use is nowhere near imminence. Where is
the efficiency and where is the value for money? Unfortunately, this is a
gamble by all means but Tesla is left with no other choices.
Besides, words failed me to express how concerned I am when it comes to the
fact that batteries may not necessarily be the dominant fuel for the next
generation vehicles. That way, all the above mentioned infrastructures will
be painfully recycled. Well, maybe I am too pessimistic. In the mean time,
I intend to see that Musk is left to his own devices by the investors.

early

【在 v****e 的大作中提到】

: as I read your posts and come to think of it... maybe this is why Tesla
: thinks it needs to do something in the home energy storage business so early
: on. I mean, it's kind of counterintuitive when you first look at it,
: because batteries are the scarce resource right now so it's like why waste
: them on something that doesn't seem so urgent compared with making cars...
: well, maybe it is pretty urgent because of what you just said.
:
: won'
: 。。

b*d2015-04-07 07:04

30 楼

Ozil已经解释的很清楚了。
只有在你跑长途的时候你才需要用到超冲，而在跑长途的时候，高速沿线都有充电桩。
你不一定要多开20 miles专门去找一个超冲，而是系统优化让你去某一个超冲（应该是
顺路的）。
平时你在家里，就不需要用超冲。
当然，如果你认为跑长途的tesla数目已经多得目前超冲不能满足了，那就多建超冲呗
正如vankie所说，到那个时候，可能tsla股票已经上千了吧。

you

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: So essentially you are asking people to drive around to get charge, and you
: believe customers would tolerate that.

b*d2015-04-07 07:04

31 楼

高速多穿越人烟稀少的地方，
在这些地方建solar farm， wind farm来给super charger供电，彻底绿色环保，又不
受制于传统utilities company，应该是未来的方向？

超冲

【在 O**l 的大作中提到】

: 你可以看超冲的地图
: 都是沿高速建一条线n多
: 6.2系统的规划算法是和navigation系统合在一起的引导你去这条路上能到的下一个超冲
: 为啥不能忍受
:
: you

S*C2015-04-07 07:04

32 楼

Your utilities need to build the peak CAPACITY (read, not average usage) for
your COMMUNITY (read, not yourself) so that your EV fans won't knock your
COMMUNITY off the grid when all of your fans charge it at the same time even
for 1 min together. Got it?
No the utilities won't build the capacity for your community since your
community average electric usage won't increase by much just because EVs,
but the peak will increase a lot. So it does not make any business sense for
the utilities to upgrade your community electric station.

【在 b*d 的大作中提到】

: Ozil已经解释的很清楚了。
: 只有在你跑长途的时候你才需要用到超冲，而在跑长途的时候，高速沿线都有充电桩。
: 你不一定要多开20 miles专门去找一个超冲，而是系统优化让你去某一个超冲（应该是
: 顺路的）。
: 平时你在家里，就不需要用超冲。
: 当然，如果你认为跑长途的tesla数目已经多得目前超冲不能满足了，那就多建超冲呗
: 正如vankie所说，到那个时候，可能tsla股票已经上千了吧。
:
: you

S*C2015-04-07 07:04

33 楼

I will give Musk credit on this one, my main thesis against EV is its
disruption to the power grid, both to the household (community) as well as
to the charging station. It can drastically increase peak capacity to
average usage ratio, thus make the whole thing infeasible because utilities
won't accept it unless they can increase rate on everyone which is also a no
go in front of regulators.
The home energy storage thing, as far as I can see, can be a friend to the
utilities, as it can reduce peak capacity to average usage ratio. You want
to have utilities on your side, not be your enemy.

early

【在 v****e 的大作中提到】

b*d2015-04-07 07:04

34 楼

Why are you so sure the peak will increase a lot for Super Charger?
Why cannot Super charger limit the peak use of electricity by just
installing a few batteries in Super Charger for buffering purpose that will
charge at a slower speed usually?
The FACT (notice, FACT) is there are so many Super Chargers already around
the world, why did the utility companies allow them to even exist?

for
even
for

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: Your utilities need to build the peak CAPACITY (read, not average usage) for
: your COMMUNITY (read, not yourself) so that your EV fans won't knock your
: COMMUNITY off the grid when all of your fans charge it at the same time even
: for 1 min together. Got it?
: No the utilities won't build the capacity for your community since your
: community average electric usage won't increase by much just because EVs,
: but the peak will increase a lot. So it does not make any business sense for
: the utilities to upgrade your community electric station.

O*l2015-04-07 07:04

35 楼

理论上每个超冲顶棚都应该有太阳能版来减轻电网负载
貌似现在只有少数建了

【在 b*d 的大作中提到】

: 高速多穿越人烟稀少的地方，
: 在这些地方建solar farm， wind farm来给super charger供电，彻底绿色环保，又不
: 受制于传统utilities company，应该是未来的方向？
:
: 超冲

S*C2015-04-07 07:04

36 楼

I am mainly talking about home charging regarding the peak to average ratio.
In charging station, yes you can increase buffer from 200 kWh to, say 400
kWh or whatever to minimize disruption so that is acceptable to utilities,
but buffer is not free.
In gas station, scale up is relatively cheap, you increase gas tank volume
in the station. In charge station, scale up can be quite expensive as
battery pack is expensive, and unlike gas tank, it has cycle life.
As a side note, "As of October 2014, there were 119 standard Tesla
supercharger stations operating in the United States, 76 in Europe, and 26
in Asia.", I won't call it so many.

will

【在 b*d 的大作中提到】

: Why are you so sure the peak will increase a lot for Super Charger?
: Why cannot Super charger limit the peak use of electricity by just
: installing a few batteries in Super Charger for buffering purpose that will
: charge at a slower speed usually?
: The FACT (notice, FACT) is there are so many Super Chargers already around
: the world, why did the utility companies allow them to even exist?
:
: for
: even
: for

S*C2015-04-07 07:04

37 楼

In addition, it seems the intention is to make home charging the predominant
energy source, charge station mainly for long-range travel, is that right?

ratio.

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: I am mainly talking about home charging regarding the peak to average ratio.
: In charging station, yes you can increase buffer from 200 kWh to, say 400
: kWh or whatever to minimize disruption so that is acceptable to utilities,
: but buffer is not free.
: In gas station, scale up is relatively cheap, you increase gas tank volume
: in the station. In charge station, scale up can be quite expensive as
: battery pack is expensive, and unlike gas tank, it has cycle life.
: As a side note, "As of October 2014, there were 119 standard Tesla
: supercharger stations operating in the United States, 76 in Europe, and 26
: in Asia.", I won't call it so many.

f*e2015-04-07 07:04

38 楼

据说PG&E参与四月三十日即将发布的产品

utilities
no

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

: I will give Musk credit on this one, my main thesis against EV is its
: disruption to the power grid, both to the household (community) as well as
: to the charging station. It can drastically increase peak capacity to
: average usage ratio, thus make the whole thing infeasible because utilities
: won't accept it unless they can increase rate on everyone which is also a no
: go in front of regulators.
: The home energy storage thing, as far as I can see, can be a friend to the
: utilities, as it can reduce peak capacity to average usage ratio. You want
: to have utilities on your side, not be your enemy.
:

S*C2015-04-07 07:04

39 楼

When you think about it, the home energy storage (if that is the product)
can be a win-win for both parties. The issue then is the cost, and whether
users will be able to skip it or not (e.g., you can only draw from outlet at
, say 3 kWh, rather than 8 kWh or higher). Remember, average central AC is
only 4 kWh.

【在 f*******e 的大作中提到】

: 据说PG&E参与四月三十日即将发布的产品
:
: utilities
: no

r*s2015-04-07 07:04

40 楼

U.S. has 117 million house holds, when we have half of that many household
with two EVs, that's 117million EVs, assuming Tesla grab 20% of the market,
and people replace their car every 10 years, that's 2million cars per year.
with 35k dollar per car, 70 billion dollar revenue in U.S. alone.
I am confident we won't be there in 5 years, why worry about it now.

for
even
for

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】

b*d2015-04-07 07:04

41 楼

Why do you worry about home charging? You can have ~10 hurs of charging time
to fully charge the EV. Take Tesla Model S as an example. It has an total
energy of 85kWh. Assume the charger losses of ~10%, you need ~93.5kWh to get
a full charge. Assume you need to charge from 0% to 100% every night (which
is rare, I believe it is easy for Tesla to set a charge time to lower your
charging current), the power consumption is ~9.35kW. 9.35kW is not a small
number, but is not catastrophic either. Remember this is the worst case
power consumption for charging a Tesla model S.

ratio.

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】