重新解毒EIA报告# Stock
c*v
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早上看报告基本confirm API的数据, 比较吃惊. 10M以上的储存, 加上炼油厂开工(从
汽油量可以反应出来,基本汽油短缺被磨平)都没能降低储量.的确大大利空.
晚上终于有空仔细研究报告.又有新的一个视角.
首先进口大量增加(>10%). 这一项一个星期就增加6M. 所以增加的多数不是本地油,是
进口油 (重油,酸油? 这个东西进口多些,本地不太产). 为什么增加?炼油厂开工后, 用
重油的厂大进货?无论如何应当是个暂时现象. 另外,不认为进口的是甜油,除非炼油厂
疯了,不买WTI买更贵的Brent.
那么大家关心的美国油产量如何? 如果你读一下产量数据,可以发现和上周,上上周,基
本在类似水平. 这说明什么呢? 美油产量可能已经peak, 那么产量回落后, 五月储量应
该也peak. 这是个好消息. 大家大可不必恐慌.
这信息对我们有什么用呢?
1. 我觉得应该调整操作期望.
首先油价不应该再到42-44. 那个价钱对应着油满仓的恐慌. 但是这个牛皮已经破了.
到底这次的最低限在哪里呢?我们可以追溯这次涨价的历史, 可以看到如果储量增加,只
是glut,市场给它的定价在47.4或者以上. 我认为是这次行情的硬底. 很可能到不了这
个值. 所以我认为只要油价在7左右都可大抄.
2. 如果没有其它因素, 目前的僵局等下个EIA才能解开. 因此, 这个星期五, 无论油价
在哪里,只要低于52,要基本完成大部分肠胃补仓. 最晚下个星期二上午要完成.
3. 有可能下个EIA比这一个好, 除非还有大量重油进口.
操作讨论请看这个贴:
http://www.mitbbs.com/clubarticle_t/bigwet/67373.html
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending April 3, 2015
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged over 15.9 million barrels per day
during the week ending April 3, 2015, 201,000 barrels per day more than the
previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 90.1% of their operable
capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging over
9.1 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week,
averaging 5.0 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged over 8.2 million barrels per day last week,
up by 869,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four
weeks, crude oil imports averaged over 7.6 million barrels per day, 4.8%
above the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (
including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week
averaged 526,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 300,000
barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) increased by 10.9 million barrels from the previous week.
At 482.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the highest
level for this time of year in at least the last 80 years. Total motor
gasoline inventories increased by 0.8 million barrels last week, and are
well above the upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline
inventories and blending components inventories increased last week.
Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.3 million barrels last week and
are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/
propylene inventories rose 0.6 million barrels last week and are well above
the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories
increased by 14.0 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.2 million
barrels per day, up by 4.5% from the same period last year. Over the last
four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.0 million barrels per
day, up by 2.0% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product
supplied averaged over 3.9 million barrels per day over the last four weeks,
up by 2.7% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied is up
7.9% compared to the same four-week period last year.
汽油量可以反应出来,基本汽油短缺被磨平)都没能降低储量.的确大大利空.
晚上终于有空仔细研究报告.又有新的一个视角.
首先进口大量增加(>10%). 这一项一个星期就增加6M. 所以增加的多数不是本地油,是
进口油 (重油,酸油? 这个东西进口多些,本地不太产). 为什么增加?炼油厂开工后, 用
重油的厂大进货?无论如何应当是个暂时现象. 另外,不认为进口的是甜油,除非炼油厂
疯了,不买WTI买更贵的Brent.
那么大家关心的美国油产量如何? 如果你读一下产量数据,可以发现和上周,上上周,基
本在类似水平. 这说明什么呢? 美油产量可能已经peak, 那么产量回落后, 五月储量应
该也peak. 这是个好消息. 大家大可不必恐慌.
这信息对我们有什么用呢?
1. 我觉得应该调整操作期望.
首先油价不应该再到42-44. 那个价钱对应着油满仓的恐慌. 但是这个牛皮已经破了.
到底这次的最低限在哪里呢?我们可以追溯这次涨价的历史, 可以看到如果储量增加,只
是glut,市场给它的定价在47.4或者以上. 我认为是这次行情的硬底. 很可能到不了这
个值. 所以我认为只要油价在7左右都可大抄.
2. 如果没有其它因素, 目前的僵局等下个EIA才能解开. 因此, 这个星期五, 无论油价
在哪里,只要低于52,要基本完成大部分肠胃补仓. 最晚下个星期二上午要完成.
3. 有可能下个EIA比这一个好, 除非还有大量重油进口.
操作讨论请看这个贴:
http://www.mitbbs.com/clubarticle_t/bigwet/67373.html
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending April 3, 2015
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged over 15.9 million barrels per day
during the week ending April 3, 2015, 201,000 barrels per day more than the
previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 90.1% of their operable
capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging over
9.1 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week,
averaging 5.0 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged over 8.2 million barrels per day last week,
up by 869,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four
weeks, crude oil imports averaged over 7.6 million barrels per day, 4.8%
above the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (
including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week
averaged 526,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 300,000
barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) increased by 10.9 million barrels from the previous week.
At 482.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the highest
level for this time of year in at least the last 80 years. Total motor
gasoline inventories increased by 0.8 million barrels last week, and are
well above the upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline
inventories and blending components inventories increased last week.
Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.3 million barrels last week and
are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/
propylene inventories rose 0.6 million barrels last week and are well above
the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories
increased by 14.0 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.2 million
barrels per day, up by 4.5% from the same period last year. Over the last
four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.0 million barrels per
day, up by 2.0% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product
supplied averaged over 3.9 million barrels per day over the last four weeks,
up by 2.7% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied is up
7.9% compared to the same four-week period last year.