Billionaires Dumping Stocks,# Stock
g*4
1 楼
g*4
2 楼
--------------
凤凰财经5月3日讯 2015年巴菲特伯克希尔股东大会5月1日-3日在奥马哈举行,凤凰财经
全程直播。股东大会上，股神巴菲特和芒格妙语连出，就全球各地投资者的提问做了精
彩的回答。巴菲特表示，未来两三年继续看好美股和A股,同时也认为美元未来50年都是
全球储备货币。巴菲特还就自己的投资品种分别做了回答，对六大品种表示了明确的投
资偏好。
巴菲特看中国和A股
巴菲特怎么看A股：价值投资也适合A股
大会开始前，有媒体提问巴菲特：未来两三年会否再度爆发全球经融危机？因为历史大
概每隔10年就要闹腾一次，并且近期美国股市和中国A股不断创新高，是否有隐忧？巴
菲特简洁回答到：未来两三年继续看好！有来自于中国的投资者问了一个很多中国股民
感到困惑的问题，价值投资是否只针对发达市场？是否适用于过去十几个月翻了两倍的
A股。巴菲特回答说，价值投资不局限各国。在中国，印度，德国，都是可以运用价值
投资理念。股票上下起伏是有利的。中国投资者承担风险能力很强。中国股票如果很火
，会变得和硅谷一样，但是中国还是不要进行过多炒作比较好。中国的投机力量比美国
还要大，这可能会创造出机会。人们都寻找容易的方式，但容易的方式往往是错误的。
芒格则说，除了看企业价值投资，其他都是不合理的。
http://www.wenxuecity.com/news/2015/05/02/4237858.html
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/MKTNews/billionaires-dump-econom
g*4
3 楼
---------------------
http://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html
2014/05/11，他预测. 你可以检查他de预测 正确或错误
-----------------------
FYI
11:00- 20:00
1:31:50 - 1:44:40
1:55:22 - end
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/MKTNews/billionaires-dump-econom
l*m
4 楼
thx for sharing
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/MKTNews/billionaires-dump-econom
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/MKTNews/billionaires-dump-econom
k*a
5 楼
newsmax was a known fear mongol-er. Their opinion has been and will be worth
less than the fart in the wind.
less than the fart in the wind.
y*k
6 楼
What is this? 2012? Has the market approved that it is wrong?
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/MKTNews/billionaires-dump-econom
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/MKTNews/billionaires-dump-econom
c*r
7 楼
顶强帖。
g*4
8 楼
Support THR for STOCK版副
Support THR for STOCK版副
Support THR for STOCK版副
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
:
: ---------------------
: http://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html
: 2014/05/11，他预测. 你可以检查他de预测 正确或错误
: -----------------------
: FYI
: 11:00- 20:00
: 1:31:50 - 1:44:40
: 1:55:22 - end
: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency
Support THR for STOCK版副
Support THR for STOCK版副
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
:
: ---------------------
: http://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html
: 2014/05/11，他预测. 你可以检查他de预测 正确或错误
: -----------------------
: FYI
: 11:00- 20:00
: 1:31:50 - 1:44:40
: 1:55:22 - end
: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency
g*4
9 楼
2014/05/11，他预测. 你可以检查他de预测 正确或错误
http://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html
【在 c******r 的大作中提到】
: 顶强帖。
http://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html
【在 c******r 的大作中提到】
: 顶强帖。
c*i
10 楼
不是太懂, 从17:00开始,他说原材料会大跌,黄金会大跌,股市大跌,美元大跌,房产大跌
, 什么都大跌,那winner都hold什么? 有什么是涨的? 这明显不make sense嘛
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: 2014/05/11，他预测. 你可以检查他de预测 正确或错误
: http://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html
, 什么都大跌,那winner都hold什么? 有什么是涨的? 这明显不make sense嘛
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: 2014/05/11，他预测. 你可以检查他de预测 正确或错误
: http://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html
g*4
11 楼
美元资产大跌,
"big hundred" have 许多选项, 一个是. "买跌"
【在 c*****i 的大作中提到】
: 不是太懂, 从17:00开始,他说原材料会大跌,黄金会大跌,股市大跌,美元大跌,房产大跌
: , 什么都大跌,那winner都hold什么? 有什么是涨的? 这明显不make sense嘛
y*n
12 楼
文章说股市会跌９０％，因为利率会涨超过１０％，到２０％，所以股市wipe out.
利率会变那么高吗？大家都拼命抛美债？？？为什么？
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/MKTNews/billionaires-dump-econom
g*4
13 楼
大家都拼命抛联邦债券 ... 美元资产.
联邦债券 价格下降 ==> 联邦债券利率 up;
所有利率 up.
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】
:
: 文章说股市会跌９０％，因为利率会涨超过１０％，到２０％，所以股市wipe out.
: 利率会变那么高吗？大家都拼命抛美债？？？为什么？
s*i
14 楼
就是个卖书的，这些都是整天看熊的，比较出名的几个，marc faber，peter schiff,
还有就是这个Aftershock的作者。看他们就像看猴子一样。
还有就是这个Aftershock的作者。看他们就像看猴子一样。
g*4
15 楼
y*n
16 楼
问题是谁会抛联邦债券那么多？如果没有通货膨胀，那可能升那么高？
有什么可能通货膨胀到10-20%？
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
g*4
17 楼
大家抛, 去购买其他的东西.
联邦债券是白条. 说十年后给你一百, 现在卖你80美元. (about 2% interest)
五年后，市场价格是95美元. 卖了，得多的钱. 买家 约1％interest.
白条在市场交易.
大家抛联邦债券, 联邦债券价格下降, interest 升.
------------------------
如果当前联邦债券的利息为5％，住房抵押 利息 > 5%. otherwise, banks just buy
联邦债券(安全，流动性好)
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】
:
: 问题是谁会抛联邦债券那么多？如果没有通货膨胀，那可能升那么高？
: 有什么可能通货膨胀到10-20%？
g*4
18 楼
Now that the Fed will raise rates, can it?
Federal Reserve Chief Janet Yellen said last week she expects to raise
interest rates in 2015 after seven years of unprecedented easy money helped
the economy shake the financial crisis and recession. And so the question
for the central bank is likely to soon move from when it will boost its
benchmark rate to: Can it?
Because of the massive amount of cash sloshing around the banking system,
the Fed will have to employ new, riskier tactics to gradually lift borrowing
costs, strategies that makes sense but are less precise, especially if
there's a scare in the markets.
"Nobody's ever done this before," says Jon Faust, director of the Center for
Financial Economics for Johns Hopkins University and special adviser to the
Fed's board of governors until last September.
The Fed's capacity to bump up rates is critical to retaining the confidence
of financial markets and heading off a potentially sharp rise in inflation
as the economy heats up.
The Fed's policymaking committee "is confident that it has the tools it
needs to raise short-term interest rates when it becomes appropriate to do
so," Yellen said earlier this year.
Faust agrees, but adds that those tools, "will almost certainly be less
precise" than they were before the financial crisis.
......
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/07/20/fed-could-face-c
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
:
: 大家抛, 去购买其他的东西.
: 联邦债券是白条. 说十年后给你一百, 现在卖你80美元. (about 2% interest)
: 五年后，市场价格是95美元. 卖了，得多的钱. 买家 约1％interest.
: 白条在市场交易.
: 大家抛联邦债券, 联邦债券价格下降, interest 升.
: ------------------------
: 如果当前联邦债券的利息为5％，住房抵押 利息 > 5%. otherwise, banks just buy
: 联邦债券(安全，流动性好)
Federal Reserve Chief Janet Yellen said last week she expects to raise
interest rates in 2015 after seven years of unprecedented easy money helped
the economy shake the financial crisis and recession. And so the question
for the central bank is likely to soon move from when it will boost its
benchmark rate to: Can it?
Because of the massive amount of cash sloshing around the banking system,
the Fed will have to employ new, riskier tactics to gradually lift borrowing
costs, strategies that makes sense but are less precise, especially if
there's a scare in the markets.
"Nobody's ever done this before," says Jon Faust, director of the Center for
Financial Economics for Johns Hopkins University and special adviser to the
Fed's board of governors until last September.
The Fed's capacity to bump up rates is critical to retaining the confidence
of financial markets and heading off a potentially sharp rise in inflation
as the economy heats up.
The Fed's policymaking committee "is confident that it has the tools it
needs to raise short-term interest rates when it becomes appropriate to do
so," Yellen said earlier this year.
Faust agrees, but adds that those tools, "will almost certainly be less
precise" than they were before the financial crisis.
......
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/07/20/fed-could-face-c
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
:
: 大家抛, 去购买其他的东西.
: 联邦债券是白条. 说十年后给你一百, 现在卖你80美元. (about 2% interest)
: 五年后，市场价格是95美元. 卖了，得多的钱. 买家 约1％interest.
: 白条在市场交易.
: 大家抛联邦债券, 联邦债券价格下降, interest 升.
: ------------------------
: 如果当前联邦债券的利息为5％，住房抵押 利息 > 5%. otherwise, banks just buy
: 联邦债券(安全，流动性好)
c*x
19 楼
这个帖子有干货。
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: Now that the Fed will raise rates, can it?
: Federal Reserve Chief Janet Yellen said last week she expects to raise
: interest rates in 2015 after seven years of unprecedented easy money helped
: the economy shake the financial crisis and recession. And so the question
: for the central bank is likely to soon move from when it will boost its
: benchmark rate to: Can it?
: Because of the massive amount of cash sloshing around the banking system,
: the Fed will have to employ new, riskier tactics to gradually lift borrowing
: costs, strategies that makes sense but are less precise, especially if
: there's a scare in the markets.
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: Now that the Fed will raise rates, can it?
: Federal Reserve Chief Janet Yellen said last week she expects to raise
: interest rates in 2015 after seven years of unprecedented easy money helped
: the economy shake the financial crisis and recession. And so the question
: for the central bank is likely to soon move from when it will boost its
: benchmark rate to: Can it?
: Because of the massive amount of cash sloshing around the banking system,
: the Fed will have to employ new, riskier tactics to gradually lift borrowing
: costs, strategies that makes sense but are less precise, especially if
: there's a scare in the markets.
g*4
20 楼
The Fed accidentally released a confidential analysis of where interest
rates are going
----------------
Currently, the fed funds rate is between 0 and 0.25 percent, the same level
it has been since the financial crisis hit in 2008. Top Fed officials,
including Chair Janet Yellen, have telegraphed for months that they expect
to finally raise it by the end of the year. In the confidential forecast,
staff estimated the fed funds rate would be 0.35 percent during the fourth
quarter.
That tells us a few things. First, it virtually confirms that the Fed has no
plans to raise interest rates when its policymakers meet in Washington next
week. Of course, no one had really expected them to, despite Yellen’s
testimony last week before Congress that “we could make decisions at any
meeting.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/07/24/the-
【在 c***x 的大作中提到】
: 这个帖子有干货。
rates are going
----------------
Currently, the fed funds rate is between 0 and 0.25 percent, the same level
it has been since the financial crisis hit in 2008. Top Fed officials,
including Chair Janet Yellen, have telegraphed for months that they expect
to finally raise it by the end of the year. In the confidential forecast,
staff estimated the fed funds rate would be 0.35 percent during the fourth
quarter.
That tells us a few things. First, it virtually confirms that the Fed has no
plans to raise interest rates when its policymakers meet in Washington next
week. Of course, no one had really expected them to, despite Yellen’s
testimony last week before Congress that “we could make decisions at any
meeting.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/07/24/the-
【在 c***x 的大作中提到】
: 这个帖子有干货。
g*4
21 楼
[1] U.S. banks and thrift institutions are obligated by law to maintain
certain levels of reserves, either as reserves with the Fed or as vault cash
. The level of these reserves is determined by the outstanding assets and
liabilities of each depository institution, as well as by the Fed itself,
but is typically 10%[5] of the total value of the bank's demand accounts (
depending on bank size).
The nominal rate is a target set by the governors of the Federal Reserve,
which they enforce primarily by open market operations. That nominal rate is
almost always what is meant by the media referring to the Federal Reserve "
changing interest rates." The actual federal funds rate generally lies
within a range of that target rate, as the Federal Reserve cannot set an
exact value through open market operations.
The federal funds rate target is decided by the governors at Federal Open
Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate
[2] But since the Fed bought massive quantities of Treasury and mortgage
bonds after the crisis to stimulate a wobbly economy, banks have $2.5
trillion in excess reserves, up from about $2 billion pre-crisis. As a
result, the Fed can no longer impact the fed funds rate with relatively
small securities purchases.
Instead, it has set the funds rate since 2008 by paying banks 0.25% in
interest to park their excess reserves at the Fed overnight. No bank should
lend money at a rate below a risk-free deposit at the Fed.
As the Fed pushes up rates, it will announce a target range for the funds
rate, probably 0.25% to 0.5% initially. The reverse repo rate will serve as
the floor for that range, and the excess-reserve rate for banks, the ceiling.
......
Fed policymakers have said they have other tools to raise rates, including
offering longer-term deposits to banks, raising the rate on excess reserves
and selling bonds. All would absorb cash from the financial system and push
up the Fed's key rate.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/07/20/fed-could-face-c
certain levels of reserves, either as reserves with the Fed or as vault cash
. The level of these reserves is determined by the outstanding assets and
liabilities of each depository institution, as well as by the Fed itself,
but is typically 10%[5] of the total value of the bank's demand accounts (
depending on bank size).
The nominal rate is a target set by the governors of the Federal Reserve,
which they enforce primarily by open market operations. That nominal rate is
almost always what is meant by the media referring to the Federal Reserve "
changing interest rates." The actual federal funds rate generally lies
within a range of that target rate, as the Federal Reserve cannot set an
exact value through open market operations.
The federal funds rate target is decided by the governors at Federal Open
Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate
[2] But since the Fed bought massive quantities of Treasury and mortgage
bonds after the crisis to stimulate a wobbly economy, banks have $2.5
trillion in excess reserves, up from about $2 billion pre-crisis. As a
result, the Fed can no longer impact the fed funds rate with relatively
small securities purchases.
Instead, it has set the funds rate since 2008 by paying banks 0.25% in
interest to park their excess reserves at the Fed overnight. No bank should
lend money at a rate below a risk-free deposit at the Fed.
As the Fed pushes up rates, it will announce a target range for the funds
rate, probably 0.25% to 0.5% initially. The reverse repo rate will serve as
the floor for that range, and the excess-reserve rate for banks, the ceiling.
......
Fed policymakers have said they have other tools to raise rates, including
offering longer-term deposits to banks, raising the rate on excess reserves
and selling bonds. All would absorb cash from the financial system and push
up the Fed's key rate.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/07/20/fed-could-face-c
g*4
22 楼
ding
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: [1] U.S. banks and thrift institutions are obligated by law to maintain
: certain levels of reserves, either as reserves with the Fed or as vault cash
: . The level of these reserves is determined by the outstanding assets and
: liabilities of each depository institution, as well as by the Fed itself,
: but is typically 10%[5] of the total value of the bank's demand accounts (
: depending on bank size).
: The nominal rate is a target set by the governors of the Federal Reserve,
: which they enforce primarily by open market operations. That nominal rate is
: almost always what is meant by the media referring to the Federal Reserve "
: changing interest rates." The actual federal funds rate generally lies
g*4
23 楼
Please google "billionaires dumping stocks" with [search tools] "Past month"
-------------------
高盛总裁Gary Cohn周三(6月23日)表示，尽管数年以来市场一直在谈论美联储将于何
时以及如何升息，但这并不意味着市场已经为此做好准备了，若美联储真的开始加息，
市场参与者仍有可能被打个措手不及。
“我们可能并没有人们预计的准备的那么充分，”Cohn周三在高盛的网站上发布的视频
中表示，“美联储改变利率政策时，若市场上出现一些有趣的反应，那么我一点都不感
到意外。”
经济学家们预计，美联储在实行了6年多的近零利率之后，将于9月份首次升息。Cohn引
用了美国和欧元区的量化宽松政策作为宏观经济事件的例子，尽管市场长期以来已经预
见到这些政策的实施，但是政策公布之后仍引起了不小的市场波动。
“当真的发生时，往往不是事件的第一衍生事件让人们措手不及，”Coln指出，“而是
第二、第三和第四衍生事件让人们措手不及。”
作为全球最大的投行之一，高盛今年前三个月固定收益高达12%。高盛首席财务官
Harvey Schwartz指出，该时期的“一个主要议题就是央行政策”。
Cohn指出，大多数企业客户已经利用低利率发行债务和筹集资金。
----------------
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-24/goldman-s-coh
Years of discussing when and how the Federal Reserve will raise interest
rates probably isn’t going to prevent market participants from being caught
off guard, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. President Gary Cohn said.
“We’re probably less ready than people think,” Cohn said on a podcast
posted Wednesday on the firm’s website. “It won’t at all be surprising to
me if there are some interesting market reactions based on official change
in rate policy by the Fed.”
Economists estimate the U.S. central bank will begin raising its benchmark
target in September after more than six years of near-zero rates. Cohn cited
quantitative easing in the U.S. and Europe as examples of macroeconomic
events that were long expected and still caused market swings when announced.
“When it does happen, it’s usually not the first-derivative event that
people are caught off guard by,” Cohn said. “They’re caught off guard by
the second-, third- and fourth-derivative events. It’s ‘Oh yeah, when
interest rates go up, that happens.’”
Goldman Sachs, one of the largest global trading banks, posted a 12 percent
jump in fixed-income revenue in the first three months of the year. Chief
Financial Officer Harvey Schwartz said that period “was dominated by one
primary theme, central bank policies.”
-------------------
高盛总裁Gary Cohn周三(6月23日)表示，尽管数年以来市场一直在谈论美联储将于何
时以及如何升息，但这并不意味着市场已经为此做好准备了，若美联储真的开始加息，
市场参与者仍有可能被打个措手不及。
“我们可能并没有人们预计的准备的那么充分，”Cohn周三在高盛的网站上发布的视频
中表示，“美联储改变利率政策时，若市场上出现一些有趣的反应，那么我一点都不感
到意外。”
经济学家们预计，美联储在实行了6年多的近零利率之后，将于9月份首次升息。Cohn引
用了美国和欧元区的量化宽松政策作为宏观经济事件的例子，尽管市场长期以来已经预
见到这些政策的实施，但是政策公布之后仍引起了不小的市场波动。
“当真的发生时，往往不是事件的第一衍生事件让人们措手不及，”Coln指出，“而是
第二、第三和第四衍生事件让人们措手不及。”
作为全球最大的投行之一，高盛今年前三个月固定收益高达12%。高盛首席财务官
Harvey Schwartz指出，该时期的“一个主要议题就是央行政策”。
Cohn指出，大多数企业客户已经利用低利率发行债务和筹集资金。
----------------
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-24/goldman-s-coh
Years of discussing when and how the Federal Reserve will raise interest
rates probably isn’t going to prevent market participants from being caught
off guard, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. President Gary Cohn said.
“We’re probably less ready than people think,” Cohn said on a podcast
posted Wednesday on the firm’s website. “It won’t at all be surprising to
me if there are some interesting market reactions based on official change
in rate policy by the Fed.”
Economists estimate the U.S. central bank will begin raising its benchmark
target in September after more than six years of near-zero rates. Cohn cited
quantitative easing in the U.S. and Europe as examples of macroeconomic
events that were long expected and still caused market swings when announced.
“When it does happen, it’s usually not the first-derivative event that
people are caught off guard by,” Cohn said. “They’re caught off guard by
the second-, third- and fourth-derivative events. It’s ‘Oh yeah, when
interest rates go up, that happens.’”
Goldman Sachs, one of the largest global trading banks, posted a 12 percent
jump in fixed-income revenue in the first three months of the year. Chief
Financial Officer Harvey Schwartz said that period “was dominated by one
primary theme, central bank policies.”
g*4
24 楼
---------------------
http://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html
2014/05/11，他预测. 你可以检查他de预测 正确或错误
-----------------------
FYI
11:00- 20:00
1:31:50 - 1:44:40
1:55:22 - end
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy
http://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html
2014/05/11，他预测. 你可以检查他de预测 正确或错误
-----------------------
FYI
11:00- 20:00
1:31:50 - 1:44:40
1:55:22 - end
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy
l*m
25 楼
thx for sharing
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/MKTNews/billionaires-dump-econom
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/MKTNews/billionaires-dump-econom
k*a
26 楼
newsmax was a known fear mongol-er. Their opinion has been and will be worth
less than the fart in the wind.
less than the fart in the wind.
y*k
27 楼
What is this? 2012? Has the market approved that it is wrong?
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/MKTNews/billionaires-dump-econom
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/MKTNews/billionaires-dump-econom
c*r
28 楼
顶强帖。
c*i
29 楼
不是太懂, 从17:00开始,他说原材料会大跌,黄金会大跌,股市大跌,美元大跌,房产大跌
, 什么都大跌,那winner都hold什么? 有什么是涨的? 这明显不make sense嘛
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: ---------------------
: http://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html
: 2014/05/11，他预测. 你可以检查他de预测 正确或错误
: -----------------------
: FYI
: 11:00- 20:00
: 1:31:50 - 1:44:40
: 1:55:22 - end
: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency
: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy
, 什么都大跌,那winner都hold什么? 有什么是涨的? 这明显不make sense嘛
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: ---------------------
: http://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html
: 2014/05/11，他预测. 你可以检查他de预测 正确或错误
: -----------------------
: FYI
: 11:00- 20:00
: 1:31:50 - 1:44:40
: 1:55:22 - end
: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency
: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy
y*n
30 楼
文章说股市会跌９０％，因为利率会涨超过１０％，到２０％，所以股市wipe out.
利率会变那么高吗？大家都拼命抛美债？？？为什么？
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/MKTNews/billionaires-dump-econom
g*4
31 楼
大家都拼命抛联邦债券 ... 美元资产.
联邦债券 价格下降 ==> 联邦债券利率 up;
所有利率 up.
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】
:
: 文章说股市会跌９０％，因为利率会涨超过１０％，到２０％，所以股市wipe out.
: 利率会变那么高吗？大家都拼命抛美债？？？为什么？
s*i
32 楼
就是个卖书的，这些都是整天看熊的，比较出名的几个，marc faber，peter schiff,
还有就是这个Aftershock的作者。看他们就像看猴子一样。
还有就是这个Aftershock的作者。看他们就像看猴子一样。
g*4
33 楼
y*n
34 楼
问题是谁会抛联邦债券那么多？如果没有通货膨胀，那可能升那么高？
有什么可能通货膨胀到10-20%？
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
g*4
35 楼
大家抛, 去购买其他的东西.
联邦债券是白条. 说十年后给你一百, 现在卖你80美元. (about 2% interest)
五年后，市场价格是95美元. 卖了，得多的钱. 买家 约1％interest.
白条在市场交易.
大家抛联邦债券, 联邦债券价格下降, interest 升.
Fed and 市场 对抗
----------
如果当前联邦债券的利息为5％，住房抵押 利息 > 5%. otherwise, banks just buy
联邦债券(安全，流动性好)
----------------------------
【在 y********n 的大作中提到】
:
: 问题是谁会抛联邦债券那么多？如果没有通货膨胀，那可能升那么高？
: 有什么可能通货膨胀到10-20%？
g*4
36 楼
Now that the Fed will raise rates, can it?
Federal Reserve Chief Janet Yellen said last week she expects to raise
interest rates in 2015 after seven years of unprecedented easy money helped
the economy shake the financial crisis and recession. And so the question
for the central bank is likely to soon move from when it will boost its
benchmark rate to: Can it?
Because of the massive amount of cash sloshing around the banking system,
the Fed will have to employ new, riskier tactics to gradually lift borrowing
costs, strategies that makes sense but are less precise, especially if
there's a scare in the markets.
"Nobody's ever done this before," says Jon Faust, director of the Center for
Financial Economics for Johns Hopkins University and special adviser to the
Fed's board of governors until last September.
The Fed's capacity to bump up rates is critical to retaining the confidence
of financial markets and heading off a potentially sharp rise in inflation
as the economy heats up.
The Fed's policymaking committee "is confident that it has the tools it
needs to raise short-term interest rates when it becomes appropriate to do
so," Yellen said earlier this year.
Faust agrees, but adds that those tools, "will almost certainly be less
precise" than they were before the financial crisis.
......
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/07/20/fed-could-face-c
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
:
: 大家抛, 去购买其他的东西.
: 联邦债券是白条. 说十年后给你一百, 现在卖你80美元. (about 2% interest)
: 五年后，市场价格是95美元. 卖了，得多的钱. 买家 约1％interest.
: 白条在市场交易.
: 大家抛联邦债券, 联邦债券价格下降, interest 升.
: Fed and 市场 对抗
: ----------
: 如果当前联邦债券的利息为5％，住房抵押 利息 > 5%. otherwise, banks just buy
: 联邦债券(安全，流动性好)
Federal Reserve Chief Janet Yellen said last week she expects to raise
interest rates in 2015 after seven years of unprecedented easy money helped
the economy shake the financial crisis and recession. And so the question
for the central bank is likely to soon move from when it will boost its
benchmark rate to: Can it?
Because of the massive amount of cash sloshing around the banking system,
the Fed will have to employ new, riskier tactics to gradually lift borrowing
costs, strategies that makes sense but are less precise, especially if
there's a scare in the markets.
"Nobody's ever done this before," says Jon Faust, director of the Center for
Financial Economics for Johns Hopkins University and special adviser to the
Fed's board of governors until last September.
The Fed's capacity to bump up rates is critical to retaining the confidence
of financial markets and heading off a potentially sharp rise in inflation
as the economy heats up.
The Fed's policymaking committee "is confident that it has the tools it
needs to raise short-term interest rates when it becomes appropriate to do
so," Yellen said earlier this year.
Faust agrees, but adds that those tools, "will almost certainly be less
precise" than they were before the financial crisis.
......
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/07/20/fed-could-face-c
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
:
: 大家抛, 去购买其他的东西.
: 联邦债券是白条. 说十年后给你一百, 现在卖你80美元. (about 2% interest)
: 五年后，市场价格是95美元. 卖了，得多的钱. 买家 约1％interest.
: 白条在市场交易.
: 大家抛联邦债券, 联邦债券价格下降, interest 升.
: Fed and 市场 对抗
: ----------
: 如果当前联邦债券的利息为5％，住房抵押 利息 > 5%. otherwise, banks just buy
: 联邦债券(安全，流动性好)
c*x
37 楼
这个帖子有干货。
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: Now that the Fed will raise rates, can it?
: Federal Reserve Chief Janet Yellen said last week she expects to raise
: interest rates in 2015 after seven years of unprecedented easy money helped
: the economy shake the financial crisis and recession. And so the question
: for the central bank is likely to soon move from when it will boost its
: benchmark rate to: Can it?
: Because of the massive amount of cash sloshing around the banking system,
: the Fed will have to employ new, riskier tactics to gradually lift borrowing
: costs, strategies that makes sense but are less precise, especially if
: there's a scare in the markets.
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: Now that the Fed will raise rates, can it?
: Federal Reserve Chief Janet Yellen said last week she expects to raise
: interest rates in 2015 after seven years of unprecedented easy money helped
: the economy shake the financial crisis and recession. And so the question
: for the central bank is likely to soon move from when it will boost its
: benchmark rate to: Can it?
: Because of the massive amount of cash sloshing around the banking system,
: the Fed will have to employ new, riskier tactics to gradually lift borrowing
: costs, strategies that makes sense but are less precise, especially if
: there's a scare in the markets.
g*4
38 楼
[1] U.S. banks and thrift institutions are obligated by law to maintain
certain levels of reserves, either as reserves with the Fed or as vault cash
. The level of these reserves is determined by the outstanding assets and
liabilities of each depository institution, as well as by the Fed itself,
but is typically 10%[5] of the total value of the bank's demand accounts (
depending on bank size).
The nominal rate is a target set by the governors of the Federal Reserve,
which they enforce primarily by open market operations. That nominal rate is
almost always what is meant by the media referring to the Federal Reserve "
changing interest rates." The actual federal funds rate generally lies
within a range of that target rate, as the Federal Reserve cannot set an
exact value through open market operations.
The federal funds rate target is decided by the governors at Federal Open
Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate
[2] But since the Fed bought massive quantities of Treasury and mortgage
bonds after the crisis to stimulate a wobbly economy, banks have $2.5
trillion in excess reserves, up from about $2 billion pre-crisis. As a
result, the Fed can no longer impact the fed funds rate with relatively
small securities purchases.
Instead, it has set the funds rate since 2008 by paying banks 0.25% in
interest to park their excess reserves at the Fed overnight. No bank should
lend money at a rate below a risk-free deposit at the Fed.
As the Fed pushes up rates, it will announce a target range for the funds
rate, probably 0.25% to 0.5% initially. The reverse repo rate will serve as
the floor for that range, and the excess-reserve rate for banks, the ceiling.
......
Fed policymakers have said they have other tools to raise rates, including
offering longer-term deposits to banks, raising the rate on excess reserves
and selling bonds. All would absorb cash from the financial system and push
up the Fed's key rate.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/07/20/fed-could-face-c
certain levels of reserves, either as reserves with the Fed or as vault cash
. The level of these reserves is determined by the outstanding assets and
liabilities of each depository institution, as well as by the Fed itself,
but is typically 10%[5] of the total value of the bank's demand accounts (
depending on bank size).
The nominal rate is a target set by the governors of the Federal Reserve,
which they enforce primarily by open market operations. That nominal rate is
almost always what is meant by the media referring to the Federal Reserve "
changing interest rates." The actual federal funds rate generally lies
within a range of that target rate, as the Federal Reserve cannot set an
exact value through open market operations.
The federal funds rate target is decided by the governors at Federal Open
Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate
[2] But since the Fed bought massive quantities of Treasury and mortgage
bonds after the crisis to stimulate a wobbly economy, banks have $2.5
trillion in excess reserves, up from about $2 billion pre-crisis. As a
result, the Fed can no longer impact the fed funds rate with relatively
small securities purchases.
Instead, it has set the funds rate since 2008 by paying banks 0.25% in
interest to park their excess reserves at the Fed overnight. No bank should
lend money at a rate below a risk-free deposit at the Fed.
As the Fed pushes up rates, it will announce a target range for the funds
rate, probably 0.25% to 0.5% initially. The reverse repo rate will serve as
the floor for that range, and the excess-reserve rate for banks, the ceiling.
......
Fed policymakers have said they have other tools to raise rates, including
offering longer-term deposits to banks, raising the rate on excess reserves
and selling bonds. All would absorb cash from the financial system and push
up the Fed's key rate.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/07/20/fed-could-face-c
g*4
39 楼
It is coming ...
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: [1] U.S. banks and thrift institutions are obligated by law to maintain
: certain levels of reserves, either as reserves with the Fed or as vault cash
: . The level of these reserves is determined by the outstanding assets and
: liabilities of each depository institution, as well as by the Fed itself,
: but is typically 10%[5] of the total value of the bank's demand accounts (
: depending on bank size).
: The nominal rate is a target set by the governors of the Federal Reserve,
: which they enforce primarily by open market operations. That nominal rate is
: almost always what is meant by the media referring to the Federal Reserve "
: changing interest rates." The actual federal funds rate generally lies
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: [1] U.S. banks and thrift institutions are obligated by law to maintain
: certain levels of reserves, either as reserves with the Fed or as vault cash
: . The level of these reserves is determined by the outstanding assets and
: liabilities of each depository institution, as well as by the Fed itself,
: but is typically 10%[5] of the total value of the bank's demand accounts (
: depending on bank size).
: The nominal rate is a target set by the governors of the Federal Reserve,
: which they enforce primarily by open market operations. That nominal rate is
: almost always what is meant by the media referring to the Federal Reserve "
: changing interest rates." The actual federal funds rate generally lies
S*n
40 楼
Timing不对即使结果对的也赔钱
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: It is coming ...
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: It is coming ...
g*4
41 楼
--------------
U.S. hiring swelled in October by the largest amount all year, and
unemployment dropped another notch to 5 percent, increasing the likelihood
that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month for the first
time in a decade. With Americans spending more on everything from restaurant
meals and clothing to new cars, employers added an impressive 271,000 jobs
last month. That was a strong rebound from August and September, when
turmoil in China and other economies overseas p.. - See more at: http://www.ooyuz.com/geturl?aid=9065526#sthash.wJU13HQz.dpuf
-------------------
Yellen: U.S. economy doing well; Dec rate hike possible Posted - November 08
2015 19:5 WakeyWakeyNews http://wakeywakeynews.com/8386/yellen-us-u-s-economy-doing-well-dec-rate-hike-possible
----------------------
【在 S*******n 的大作中提到】
: Timing不对即使结果对的也赔钱
S*n
42 楼
还只是猜，你知道哪一天会发生吗？你做空股市吗？
first
restaurant
jobs
08
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: ---------------------
: http://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html
: 2014/05/11，他预测. 你可以检查他de预测 正确或错误
: -----------------------
: FYI
: 11:00- 20:00
: 1:31:50 - 1:44:40
: 1:55:22 - end
: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency
: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy
first
restaurant
jobs
08
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: ---------------------
: http://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html
: 2014/05/11，他预测. 你可以检查他de预测 正确或错误
: -----------------------
: FYI
: 11:00- 20:00
: 1:31:50 - 1:44:40
: 1:55:22 - end
: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency
: http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy
g*4
43 楼
一个字: 逃.
【在 S*******n 的大作中提到】
: 还只是猜，你知道哪一天会发生吗？你做空股市吗？
:
: first
: restaurant
: jobs
: 08
S*n
44 楼
那是5月份的贴，现在又要新高了。
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
:
: 一个字: 逃.
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
:
: 一个字: 逃.
g*d
45 楼
month"
这家伙卖了几万股google，“导致”google九月低转向上涨
不通啊
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: Please google "billionaires dumping stocks" with [search tools] "Past month"
: -------------------
: 高盛总裁Gary Cohn周三(6月23日)表示，尽管数年以来市场一直在谈论美联储将于何
: 时以及如何升息，但这并不意味着市场已经为此做好准备了，若美联储真的开始加息，
: 市场参与者仍有可能被打个措手不及。
: “我们可能并没有人们预计的准备的那么充分，”Cohn周三在高盛的网站上发布的视频
: 中表示，“美联储改变利率政策时，若市场上出现一些有趣的反应，那么我一点都不感
: 到意外。”
: 经济学家们预计，美联储在实行了6年多的近零利率之后，将于9月份首次升息。Cohn引
: 用了美国和欧元区的量化宽松政策作为宏观经济事件的例子，尽管市场长期以来已经预
g*4
46 楼
point: ** 一旦当美联储加息(或确定会加息)，市场翻转 **
-------------------
美国劳工部上周五公布，经季调后，10月份非农就业人数增加271,000人。9月份和8月
份新增就业人数被向上修正，较初值增加12,000人。美国10月份失业率从9月份的5.1%
小幅下降至5.0%，为2008年4月份以来最低水平。此前接受《华尔街日报》调查的经济
学家给出的预期为，10月份非农就业人数增加183,000人，10月份失业率降至5.0%。
短期美国国债收益率上周五升至五年高点，此前强劲的就业报告巩固了美联储可能在12
月加息的预期。投资者抛售国债，因担心美联储的超宽松货币政策转向后，他们手中的
国债价值将会缩水。尾盘，基准10年期国债收益率报2.332%，为7月21日以来的最高收
盘水平。2年期国债收益率报0.889%，为2010年5月以来的最高收盘水平。
【在 S*******n 的大作中提到】
: 那是5月份的贴，现在又要新高了。
-------------------
美国劳工部上周五公布，经季调后，10月份非农就业人数增加271,000人。9月份和8月
份新增就业人数被向上修正，较初值增加12,000人。美国10月份失业率从9月份的5.1%
小幅下降至5.0%，为2008年4月份以来最低水平。此前接受《华尔街日报》调查的经济
学家给出的预期为，10月份非农就业人数增加183,000人，10月份失业率降至5.0%。
短期美国国债收益率上周五升至五年高点，此前强劲的就业报告巩固了美联储可能在12
月加息的预期。投资者抛售国债，因担心美联储的超宽松货币政策转向后，他们手中的
国债价值将会缩水。尾盘，基准10年期国债收益率报2.332%，为7月21日以来的最高收
盘水平。2年期国债收益率报0.889%，为2010年5月以来的最高收盘水平。
【在 S*******n 的大作中提到】
: 那是5月份的贴，现在又要新高了。
g*4
47 楼
让我们看周一市场 ...
12
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: point: ** 一旦当美联储加息(或确定会加息)，市场翻转 **
:
: -------------------
: 美国劳工部上周五公布，经季调后，10月份非农就业人数增加271,000人。9月份和8月
: 份新增就业人数被向上修正，较初值增加12,000人。美国10月份失业率从9月份的5.1%
: 小幅下降至5.0%，为2008年4月份以来最低水平。此前接受《华尔街日报》调查的经济
: 学家给出的预期为，10月份非农就业人数增加183,000人，10月份失业率降至5.0%。
: 短期美国国债收益率上周五升至五年高点，此前强劲的就业报告巩固了美联储可能在12
: 月加息的预期。投资者抛售国债，因担心美联储的超宽松货币政策转向后，他们手中的
: 国债价值将会缩水。尾盘，基准10年期国债收益率报2.332%，为7月21日以来的最高收
12
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: point: ** 一旦当美联储加息(或确定会加息)，市场翻转 **
:
: -------------------
: 美国劳工部上周五公布，经季调后，10月份非农就业人数增加271,000人。9月份和8月
: 份新增就业人数被向上修正，较初值增加12,000人。美国10月份失业率从9月份的5.1%
: 小幅下降至5.0%，为2008年4月份以来最低水平。此前接受《华尔街日报》调查的经济
: 学家给出的预期为，10月份非农就业人数增加183,000人，10月份失业率降至5.0%。
: 短期美国国债收益率上周五升至五年高点，此前强劲的就业报告巩固了美联储可能在12
: 月加息的预期。投资者抛售国债，因担心美联储的超宽松货币政策转向后，他们手中的
: 国债价值将会缩水。尾盘，基准10年期国债收益率报2.332%，为7月21日以来的最高收
S*n
48 楼
明天就开跌？会不会是低开高走
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: 让我们看周一市场 ...
:
: 12
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: 让我们看周一市场 ...
:
: 12
g*4
49 楼
开跌. Stock and bond.
【在 S*******n 的大作中提到】
: 明天就开跌？会不会是低开高走
【在 S*******n 的大作中提到】
: 明天就开跌？会不会是低开高走
B*e
50 楼
So what? Market has down days and then you are proven right?
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: 开跌. Stock and bond.
【在 g******4 的大作中提到】
: 开跌. Stock and bond.
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