油和天然气的走势# Stock
a*1
1 楼
NG has been consolidating in the past 7 years, starting at $12 in 2008 and
now at $2.8. It was a painful process and the cost fundamental will be in
the play. Currently, most of the player are still losing money under $3. I
don't expect it to be back to $5 in the short term, but $3.5 to 4 is a real
possibility in the next 6 month. All we need is a little bit of tailwind and
they are all lined up including: oil and NG rig reduction, LNG take-away
starting in Q4 and coal companies going BK. They are all incremental but
they are all support the fundamental.
NG rig has been down in the past 6 years and that was not enough. However,
recent drop in oil rig should give it a push as NG is the major by product
of oil production.
LNG takeaway will start in Q4, albeit a small amount. The current one train
at Sabine Pass will take only 0.7 bcf per day. However, that will translate
into 200 bcf per year. Right now the NG storage is around 3950 and we are 5%
above 5 year average. One train capacity is enough to take that 5% away.
Remember that is just one train out of 6 trains coming in the next several
years and more on the way.
NG useage for electricity has been up 5% a year. That trend will keep up as
more and more coal companies going BK as evidenced in the past several month.
For oil price to restore balance, it might not be as long as 6 -7 years. But
I do see 2-3 years. It might not be as painful as NG but this is a
structural change and this time is different.
now at $2.8. It was a painful process and the cost fundamental will be in
the play. Currently, most of the player are still losing money under $3. I
don't expect it to be back to $5 in the short term, but $3.5 to 4 is a real
possibility in the next 6 month. All we need is a little bit of tailwind and
they are all lined up including: oil and NG rig reduction, LNG take-away
starting in Q4 and coal companies going BK. They are all incremental but
they are all support the fundamental.
NG rig has been down in the past 6 years and that was not enough. However,
recent drop in oil rig should give it a push as NG is the major by product
of oil production.
LNG takeaway will start in Q4, albeit a small amount. The current one train
at Sabine Pass will take only 0.7 bcf per day. However, that will translate
into 200 bcf per year. Right now the NG storage is around 3950 and we are 5%
above 5 year average. One train capacity is enough to take that 5% away.
Remember that is just one train out of 6 trains coming in the next several
years and more on the way.
NG useage for electricity has been up 5% a year. That trend will keep up as
more and more coal companies going BK as evidenced in the past several month.
For oil price to restore balance, it might not be as long as 6 -7 years. But
I do see 2-3 years. It might not be as painful as NG but this is a
structural change and this time is different.
