关于 AAPL# Stock
e*r
1 楼
just a few random thoughts:
What to watch out for in the coming earnings report:
1. iphone unit number -- my take, it's likely to disappoint. If it does,
you will see knee jerk reactions immediately to the downside. The street is
fixated on this single number of recent as the "apple is a one-product
company" meme has become so powerful (yet ignoring the fact that even apple
’s non-iphone business makes more money than google does). However, any
balanced analysis should look beyond the # of iphone sold, and factoring in
the ASP and Margin. For instance, in the previous quarter, the iphone unit #
missed by one million, but revenue and EPS still beaten the estimates,
which clearly demonstrated Apple's pricing power in spite of the flooding of
cheap phones from the Andriod camp into the market.
2. China sales number -- if Nike's earning report is any indication, Apple
should be fine in China. As a side note, the recent turmoil in Chinese stock
market may have done real damage to consumer spending on big-ticket items (
e.g. house, automobile, vacation overseas), but I personally believe it
might have actually helped iphone sales in China because if a house or a car
is out of reach, getting an iphone seems like a reasonable consolation
purchase to make up for the disappointment.
3. Apple watch sales -- look out for the revenue number under the "other
category". Apple Watch is a product category could provide meaningful growth
in the near term.
3. Share buyback -- this will be telling how apple management themselves
feel about the future of the company. In the previous quarter, that number
is 19 billion at an average buyback price of $128. Note that the overall
average buyback price is slightly below $90 since the buyback program was
established. I would be shocked if Apple had not bought back its shares
aggressively in the past three months. Seeing a bunch articles based on
technical analysis calling for AAPL to move down to $60 is like witnessing
pure idiocy.
4. Guidance --- Apple was known to give absurdly low guidance in the past.
That has changed since Cook took over. Nevertheless, the guidance is still
conservative nowadays. With new hardwares (apple TV, ipad-pro, etc.)
expected, as well as the approaching of holiday seasons, any upside hinted
in the guidance (esp. considering against last year's tough comp) should be
taken as a huge positive.
Bottom line:
1. Apple the company: so long as apple has the reputation and the resource($
$$) to attract the best talent in silicon valley, innovation will be alive
and well and Apple is going to be fine. Product wise, iphone has no real
competition because all iphones carry an Apple logo only. If Apple's decades
-long Mac business is any indication, iphone is unlikely to be commoditized
any time soon.
2. AAPL the stock: even if Apple stops growing (which is unlikely), it is
still set to make $50 billion dollars a year. At current market cap,
factoring in the cash it holds, Apple can basically buy itself back within
10 years. The way I looked at is this --- I will invest, in a heartbeat, in
any company that makes my money back in ten years and then prints free cash
in the years beyond.
What to watch out for in the coming earnings report:
1. iphone unit number -- my take, it's likely to disappoint. If it does,
you will see knee jerk reactions immediately to the downside. The street is
fixated on this single number of recent as the "apple is a one-product
company" meme has become so powerful (yet ignoring the fact that even apple
’s non-iphone business makes more money than google does). However, any
balanced analysis should look beyond the # of iphone sold, and factoring in
the ASP and Margin. For instance, in the previous quarter, the iphone unit #
missed by one million, but revenue and EPS still beaten the estimates,
which clearly demonstrated Apple's pricing power in spite of the flooding of
cheap phones from the Andriod camp into the market.
2. China sales number -- if Nike's earning report is any indication, Apple
should be fine in China. As a side note, the recent turmoil in Chinese stock
market may have done real damage to consumer spending on big-ticket items (
e.g. house, automobile, vacation overseas), but I personally believe it
might have actually helped iphone sales in China because if a house or a car
is out of reach, getting an iphone seems like a reasonable consolation
purchase to make up for the disappointment.
3. Apple watch sales -- look out for the revenue number under the "other
category". Apple Watch is a product category could provide meaningful growth
in the near term.
3. Share buyback -- this will be telling how apple management themselves
feel about the future of the company. In the previous quarter, that number
is 19 billion at an average buyback price of $128. Note that the overall
average buyback price is slightly below $90 since the buyback program was
established. I would be shocked if Apple had not bought back its shares
aggressively in the past three months. Seeing a bunch articles based on
technical analysis calling for AAPL to move down to $60 is like witnessing
pure idiocy.
4. Guidance --- Apple was known to give absurdly low guidance in the past.
That has changed since Cook took over. Nevertheless, the guidance is still
conservative nowadays. With new hardwares (apple TV, ipad-pro, etc.)
expected, as well as the approaching of holiday seasons, any upside hinted
in the guidance (esp. considering against last year's tough comp) should be
taken as a huge positive.
Bottom line:
1. Apple the company: so long as apple has the reputation and the resource($
$$) to attract the best talent in silicon valley, innovation will be alive
and well and Apple is going to be fine. Product wise, iphone has no real
competition because all iphones carry an Apple logo only. If Apple's decades
-long Mac business is any indication, iphone is unlikely to be commoditized
any time soon.
2. AAPL the stock: even if Apple stops growing (which is unlikely), it is
still set to make $50 billion dollars a year. At current market cap,
factoring in the cash it holds, Apple can basically buy itself back within
10 years. The way I looked at is this --- I will invest, in a heartbeat, in
any company that makes my money back in ten years and then prints free cash
in the years beyond.