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YELP

YELP# Stock

e*r2015-11-12 08:11

1 楼

YELP just broke out... For you traders out there, a fairly safe bet towards
the $30, mid-point of the previous gap down. Still the keyword here is "BET"
, there are risks involved in this trade, let alone for a momentum name like
YELP.
points to consider:
- The sentiment in the stock has changed since last ER.
- Street only expecting 20% growth for 2016 --- relatively low bar to clear
- 95% institutional ownership
my strategy: this is more of a speculative investment of mine... have been
accumulating... will buy more on pullbacks... holding it for at least 2 yrs.
Target: sell when its revenue reaches 1 billion. Shares conservatively
valued at 3x revenue multiple. 1 billion revenue will lead to a double of
today's market cap.
Take my advice with a giant grain of salt... make your own investment
decisions based on your risk appetite etc... in other words, YMYD.

M*n2015-11-12 08:11

2 楼

Eddie, "Street only expecting 20% growth for 2016", 2015年花街对YELP的期待成
长率是多少？谢谢
YELP以前版面有过不少讨论，比较多的看法是，YELP这个平台已经有了相当的用户，但
是经营的不是太好，当时发言的不少人认为YELP如果被某个大公司并购，是最好的了。

g*d2015-11-12 08:11

3 楼

这个东西正好是小波遇上大波，
现在还没到七月底八月初的缺口里面。
等等吧

【在 M***n 的大作中提到】

: Eddie, "Street only expecting 20% growth for 2016", 2015年花街对YELP的期待成
: 长率是多少？谢谢
: YELP以前版面有过不少讨论，比较多的看法是，YELP这个平台已经有了相当的用户，但
: 是经营的不是太好，当时发言的不少人认为YELP如果被某个大公司并购，是最好的了。

e*r2015-11-12 08:11

4 楼

if my memory serves, the lowest quarterly yoy growth on the revenue side was
40+% during 2015. Current annual revenue is over half billion. The street is
expecting it to reach over 800 million in 2017, i believe. The management
is still ambitious in reaching 1 billion revenue milestone in two years.
Yelp was offered 550 million plus earn-out by Google back in 2009, when the
company's revenue was at ~30 million. Words got out and YELP was offered
more money by someone else and the deal with google was called off...
google and Yelp have been enemies ever since.

【在 M***n 的大作中提到】

M*n2015-11-12 08:11

5 楼

哦，看到了7-8月那里有个跳水，现在正好在跳水线下，还没突破。
谢谢图王~

【在 g****d 的大作中提到】

:
: 这个东西正好是小波遇上大波，
: 现在还没到七月底八月初的缺口里面。
: 等等吧

e*r2015-11-12 08:11

6 楼

I actually drew the line higher at $30 level... the breakout level I meant
in my note was the $25 resistance.

【在 M***n 的大作中提到】

: 哦，看到了7-8月那里有个跳水，现在正好在跳水线下，还没突破。
: 谢谢图王~

a*t2015-11-12 08:11

7 楼

现在跟那时的环境有了非常大的改变。我不知道yelp这几年除了网评还做了什么更多的
业务发展。

was
is
the

【在 e*********r 的大作中提到】

: if my memory serves, the lowest quarterly yoy growth on the revenue side was
: 40+% during 2015. Current annual revenue is over half billion. The street is
: expecting it to reach over 800 million in 2017, i believe. The management
: is still ambitious in reaching 1 billion revenue milestone in two years.
: Yelp was offered 550 million plus earn-out by Google back in 2009, when the
: company's revenue was at ~30 million. Words got out and YELP was offered
: more money by someone else and the deal with google was called off...
: google and Yelp have been enemies ever since.

e*r2015-11-12 08:11

8 楼

Current valuation at 3x revenue is conservative... and if it's confirmed
that the return of high growth in the next earnings call, then I will be
even more aggressive in accumulating YELP shares. But I will be disciplined
to get out of the stock when the company reaches my target (1 billion
revenue).

【在 a*******t 的大作中提到】

: 现在跟那时的环境有了非常大的改变。我不知道yelp这几年除了网评还做了什么更多的
: 业务发展。
:
: was
: is
: the

M*n2015-11-12 08:11

9 楼

Eddie 为什么画在$30? 跳水前后的价格的中间价吗？

【在 e*********r 的大作中提到】

: I actually drew the line higher at $30 level... the breakout level I meant
: in my note was the $25 resistance.

e*r2015-11-12 08:11

10 楼

Yep, that's where the giant near-term resistance is supposed to be. It
doesnot really matter.... you can pretty much draw your line anywhere on a
chart and one should never read too much into the chart. A line on a chart
only makes sense when everyone is drawing the same line on that chart ---
there is no real fundamental or scientific reason behind these lines.

【在 M***n 的大作中提到】

: Eddie 为什么画在$30? 跳水前后的价格的中间价吗？

a*t2015-11-12 08:11

11 楼

你对yelp的产品结构有过分析吗？你觉得他家能竞争过google，FB吗？社交媒体一旦失
去用户粘度，想扩展revenue是很难的。

disciplined

【在 e*********r 的大作中提到】

: Current valuation at 3x revenue is conservative... and if it's confirmed
: that the return of high growth in the next earnings call, then I will be
: even more aggressive in accumulating YELP shares. But I will be disciplined
: to get out of the stock when the company reaches my target (1 billion
: revenue).

M*n2015-11-12 08:11

12 楼

OK. 谢谢解释。

【在 e*********r 的大作中提到】

: Yep, that's where the giant near-term resistance is supposed to be. It
: doesnot really matter.... you can pretty much draw your line anywhere on a
: chart and one should never read too much into the chart. A line on a chart
: only makes sense when everyone is drawing the same line on that chart ---
: there is no real fundamental or scientific reason behind these lines.

e*r2015-11-12 08:11

13 楼

the threat from google and FB has been there for years... still Yelp
had no problem growing its business at 40+%. The problem with YELP in
recent quarters has been the difficulties in hiring/retaining its sales
force... a fixable problem... and in the latest quarter it might have
reached an inflection point going forward.
The best suitor for YELP would be either Google or Apple... think what if
the YELP app was pre-installed on IOS or andriod --- its user base can be
dramatically increased.... But Apple won't buy YELP. And as long as yelp's
current CEO is still in charge (plus anti-trust concerns), google won't buy
yelp either. Microsoft Bing could integrate Yelp for its reviews... who
knows.... those are total speculations.
Valuation is low...expectation is low... it won't take much for YELP to
impress the street. And i also find the 95% institutional ownership of this
stock intriguing and somewhat reassuring.

【在 a*******t 的大作中提到】

: 你对yelp的产品结构有过分析吗？你觉得他家能竞争过google，FB吗？社交媒体一旦失
: 去用户粘度，想扩展revenue是很难的。
:
: disciplined

a*t2015-11-12 08:11

14 楼

昨天是在为今天某机构评级做预演吧？这个时间掐得妙呀。

towards
BET"
like
clear
been
yrs.

【在 e*********r 的大作中提到】

: YELP just broke out... For you traders out there, a fairly safe bet towards
: the $30, mid-point of the previous gap down. Still the keyword here is "BET"
: , there are risks involved in this trade, let alone for a momentum name like
: YELP.
: points to consider:
: - The sentiment in the stock has changed since last ER.
: - Street only expecting 20% growth for 2016 --- relatively low bar to clear
: - 95% institutional ownership
: my strategy: this is more of a speculative investment of mine... have been
: accumulating... will buy more on pullbacks... holding it for at least 2 yrs.