多事之周啊# Stock
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One last call before the Federal Open Market Committee
The market will be looking for reassurance regarding the start and pace of
the Fed's tightening cycle while waiting for the FOMC meeting on
December 16. Fed futures are assigning a 74% probability of a rate hike in
December and data this week could provide clues about the start and speed of
future increases. The week will be packed with Fed speak, as FOMC members
Evans (Tuesday), Lockhart and Williams (Wednesday) will talk about the state
of the US economy while Vice Chair Fischer will deliver a speech on
financial stability (Thursday). The market will pay particular attention to
Chair Yellen's testimony before Congress on Thursday, as it focuses on
the economic outlook.
The employment report on Friday is the last major data release before the
FOMC meeting. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase 200k (as consensus),
the unemployment rate to fall one-tenth to 4.9% and average hourly earnings
to be up 0.1% m/m. A solid print should confirm the start of policy
normalization in December.
Other data releases this week include November's Chicago PMI (forecast
54 vs 56.2 previous), ISM Manufacturing (forecast 50.5 vs 50.1 prev.) and
final readings for PMI and durable orders. The USD should continue its
upward trend this week, as the ECB is expected to deliver further easing,
Fed speak to support policy tightening and a solid job report and other data
to confirm the strength of the US economy.
The market will be looking for reassurance regarding the start and pace of
the Fed's tightening cycle while waiting for the FOMC meeting on
December 16. Fed futures are assigning a 74% probability of a rate hike in
December and data this week could provide clues about the start and speed of
future increases. The week will be packed with Fed speak, as FOMC members
Evans (Tuesday), Lockhart and Williams (Wednesday) will talk about the state
of the US economy while Vice Chair Fischer will deliver a speech on
financial stability (Thursday). The market will pay particular attention to
Chair Yellen's testimony before Congress on Thursday, as it focuses on
the economic outlook.
The employment report on Friday is the last major data release before the
FOMC meeting. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase 200k (as consensus),
the unemployment rate to fall one-tenth to 4.9% and average hourly earnings
to be up 0.1% m/m. A solid print should confirm the start of policy
normalization in December.
Other data releases this week include November's Chicago PMI (forecast
54 vs 56.2 previous), ISM Manufacturing (forecast 50.5 vs 50.1 prev.) and
final readings for PMI and durable orders. The USD should continue its
upward trend this week, as the ECB is expected to deliver further easing,
Fed speak to support policy tightening and a solid job report and other data
to confirm the strength of the US economy.