as i slowly accepted the fact# Stock
p*e
1 楼
that i have lost my first bet of the year, and knowing there will be no
morebet till next month as per my new year resolution. i cant help but feel
a bit depressed.
i walk around the house and found a leftover honey bbq chips, and i grab a
cup and pour myself a cup of sunkist. as i was chewing the chips, drinking
my soda, my mood started to calm down a bit and started to ponder about the
market going forward.
my baseline view is still a continuing moderate growth of us economy will
lead to a policy normalization as the fed lay out in their forecast, and so
rate hike of 4 times or more is on the card for the year, and market will
sooner or later accept this fact somehow later the year and begin to price
that in, so the dominant view remains a short treasury long financial (until
of course, when the market realize they cant take rate hike as rapid, and
equity in general to crash, but that's most likely next year's event), at
least for the first three quarter of the year.
that being said， there are still two notable minor trends that is possible
to expand and may even become dominant, overshadowing my baseline view. one
of them being the media hyping china slow down and/or capital outflow, the
second, now being put behind the scene, being the greek debt drama. while it
seems to be talk of the town now, i do not believe china will become a
significant problem, as i fully believe in the administration's ability to
handle a crisis, with ample room to manipulate in their monetary policy and
a strong fx reserve to handle any speculative attack, i do not judge it to
be origin of any immediate crisis.
the greek issue on the other hand, is a very tricky one, cuz it is as much a
political one as an economic one, and politics is very very unpredictable.
one will not know when and how it can pop up, and when it pops, can it be
contain and whatnot, so many question i know not.
all in all, if the two side trend really grows and become dominant one, we
might very well saw the top in 2015, and another global meltdown is on the
way.
but this is not my baseline view, baseline view is still somehow in the
spring, things will settle, and market will come to accept a sustain
moderate us recovery, couple with a global recovery as the belated ecb, pboc
and boj stimulus finally start to work their way thru the economy. they
will then take fed seriously and start a rapid repricing of interest rate,
hence leading to a final leg of rally in the market, that of the rally of
the financial sector, until of course, the music stop, sometime later the
year.
and so much bs, still is just a part of the picture, what about the energy
sector, the potential geopolitical issue in middle east, eastern europe,
north korea and last but not least east and south china sea, not to mention
us election, ongoing technology improvement and whatnot.
9 years into this shit, i cannot but admit- I KNOW NOTHING, i judge, as i
have to everytime i bet, but judgement after all is only base on part of
thepicture, most often it is just a dot u see in a huge painting, they were
never complete, and so inferring the whole from the dot will always subject
to error.
well, bs being bs, i will still bet come next month when i get my pay, all i
can do is to hold my new year resolution tight, bet half, spend a quarter,
save some. that way, i can always afford to buy my soda and potato chips
when i blow up my account everytime.
morebet till next month as per my new year resolution. i cant help but feel
a bit depressed.
i walk around the house and found a leftover honey bbq chips, and i grab a
cup and pour myself a cup of sunkist. as i was chewing the chips, drinking
my soda, my mood started to calm down a bit and started to ponder about the
market going forward.
my baseline view is still a continuing moderate growth of us economy will
lead to a policy normalization as the fed lay out in their forecast, and so
rate hike of 4 times or more is on the card for the year, and market will
sooner or later accept this fact somehow later the year and begin to price
that in, so the dominant view remains a short treasury long financial (until
of course, when the market realize they cant take rate hike as rapid, and
equity in general to crash, but that's most likely next year's event), at
least for the first three quarter of the year.
that being said， there are still two notable minor trends that is possible
to expand and may even become dominant, overshadowing my baseline view. one
of them being the media hyping china slow down and/or capital outflow, the
second, now being put behind the scene, being the greek debt drama. while it
seems to be talk of the town now, i do not believe china will become a
significant problem, as i fully believe in the administration's ability to
handle a crisis, with ample room to manipulate in their monetary policy and
a strong fx reserve to handle any speculative attack, i do not judge it to
be origin of any immediate crisis.
the greek issue on the other hand, is a very tricky one, cuz it is as much a
political one as an economic one, and politics is very very unpredictable.
one will not know when and how it can pop up, and when it pops, can it be
contain and whatnot, so many question i know not.
all in all, if the two side trend really grows and become dominant one, we
might very well saw the top in 2015, and another global meltdown is on the
way.
but this is not my baseline view, baseline view is still somehow in the
spring, things will settle, and market will come to accept a sustain
moderate us recovery, couple with a global recovery as the belated ecb, pboc
and boj stimulus finally start to work their way thru the economy. they
will then take fed seriously and start a rapid repricing of interest rate,
hence leading to a final leg of rally in the market, that of the rally of
the financial sector, until of course, the music stop, sometime later the
year.
and so much bs, still is just a part of the picture, what about the energy
sector, the potential geopolitical issue in middle east, eastern europe,
north korea and last but not least east and south china sea, not to mention
us election, ongoing technology improvement and whatnot.
9 years into this shit, i cannot but admit- I KNOW NOTHING, i judge, as i
have to everytime i bet, but judgement after all is only base on part of
thepicture, most often it is just a dot u see in a huge painting, they were
never complete, and so inferring the whole from the dot will always subject
to error.
well, bs being bs, i will still bet come next month when i get my pay, all i
can do is to hold my new year resolution tight, bet half, spend a quarter,
save some. that way, i can always afford to buy my soda and potato chips
when i blow up my account everytime.
