unconfirmed rumor has it# Stock
p*e
1 楼
no one hit yet and the next jackpot will start at 1.3 billion!
i repeat, unconfirmed rumor
i repeat, unconfirmed rumor
l*c
2 楼
what's the probability that no one hits the jackpot?
[在 poiuytre (笑什么，没见过笨蛋拔萝卜呀) 的大作中提到：]
：no one hit yet and the next jackpot will start at 1.3 billion!
：
：...........
[在 poiuytre (笑什么，没见过笨蛋拔萝卜呀) 的大作中提到：]
：no one hit yet and the next jackpot will start at 1.3 billion!
：
：...........
m*v
3 楼
It depends on how many tickets were sold. If it's 300,000,000, then there is
still 36% probability nobody will win. Probability is like a magic.
【在 l***c 的大作中提到】
: what's the probability that no one hits the jackpot?
: [在 poiuytre (笑什么，没见过笨蛋拔萝卜呀) 的大作中提到：]
: ：no one hit yet and the next jackpot will start at 1.3 billion!
: ：
: ：...........
still 36% probability nobody will win. Probability is like a magic.
【在 l***c 的大作中提到】
: what's the probability that no one hits the jackpot?
: [在 poiuytre (笑什么，没见过笨蛋拔萝卜呀) 的大作中提到：]
: ：no one hit yet and the next jackpot will start at 1.3 billion!
: ：
: ：...........
p*e
4 楼
tough to say, the jackpot started at 675 before pple rush to buy, and right
now was sitting @ 950, that's a growth of 275 million, a cash value growth
of roughly 200 mill, and this suppose to be 60 pct of total purchase, so the
total money used for purchase shld be roughly 350 mill, around 175 mill
tickt purchase against an odd of 1 in 292 ticket.
even assuming all ticket are unique, chance of not hitting is still around
40 pct
【在 l***c 的大作中提到】
: what's the probability that no one hits the jackpot?
: [在 poiuytre (笑什么，没见过笨蛋拔萝卜呀) 的大作中提到：]
: ：no one hit yet and the next jackpot will start at 1.3 billion!
: ：
: ：...........
now was sitting @ 950, that's a growth of 275 million, a cash value growth
of roughly 200 mill, and this suppose to be 60 pct of total purchase, so the
total money used for purchase shld be roughly 350 mill, around 175 mill
tickt purchase against an odd of 1 in 292 ticket.
even assuming all ticket are unique, chance of not hitting is still around
40 pct
【在 l***c 的大作中提到】
: what's the probability that no one hits the jackpot?
: [在 poiuytre (笑什么，没见过笨蛋拔萝卜呀) 的大作中提到：]
: ：no one hit yet and the next jackpot will start at 1.3 billion!
: ：
: ：...........
m*v
5 楼
Even for 1/6's drawing, there is 176 million tickets sold. There could be
over 300 million sold this time.
right
growth
the
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: tough to say, the jackpot started at 675 before pple rush to buy, and right
: now was sitting @ 950, that's a growth of 275 million, a cash value growth
: of roughly 200 mill, and this suppose to be 60 pct of total purchase, so the
: total money used for purchase shld be roughly 350 mill, around 175 mill
: tickt purchase against an odd of 1 in 292 ticket.
: even assuming all ticket are unique, chance of not hitting is still around
: 40 pct
over 300 million sold this time.
right
growth
the
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: tough to say, the jackpot started at 675 before pple rush to buy, and right
: now was sitting @ 950, that's a growth of 275 million, a cash value growth
: of roughly 200 mill, and this suppose to be 60 pct of total purchase, so the
: total money used for purchase shld be roughly 350 mill, around 175 mill
: tickt purchase against an odd of 1 in 292 ticket.
: even assuming all ticket are unique, chance of not hitting is still around
: 40 pct
p*e
6 楼
hmmm, maybe they got other formula, if 300 mill tocket sold, the chance of
not hitting is extremely low
【在 m*******v 的大作中提到】
: Even for 1/6's drawing, there is 176 million tickets sold. There could be
: over 300 million sold this time.
:
: right
: growth
: the
not hitting is extremely low
【在 m*******v 的大作中提到】
: Even for 1/6's drawing, there is 176 million tickets sold. There could be
: over 300 million sold this time.
:
: right
: growth
: the
m*v
7 楼
Not that low, still 33%. The curve of no win probability has a very fat tail.
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: hmmm, maybe they got other formula, if 300 mill tocket sold, the chance of
: not hitting is extremely low
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: hmmm, maybe they got other formula, if 300 mill tocket sold, the chance of
: not hitting is extremely low
p*e
8 楼
how do u get 33 pct if 300 million ticket was sold
tail.
【在 m*******v 的大作中提到】
: Not that low, still 33%. The curve of no win probability has a very fat tail.
tail.
【在 m*******v 的大作中提到】
: Not that low, still 33%. The curve of no win probability has a very fat tail.
m*v
9 楼
tail.
【在 m*******v 的大作中提到】
: Not that low, still 33%. The curve of no win probability has a very fat tail.
p*e
10 楼
how he calculate that
【在 m*******v 的大作中提到】
:
: tail.
【在 m*******v 的大作中提到】
:
: tail.
m*v
11 楼
Computer or a calculator.
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: how he calculate that
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: how he calculate that
p*e
12 楼
any soirce on the formula
【在 m*******v 的大作中提到】
: Computer or a calculator.
【在 m*******v 的大作中提到】
: Computer or a calculator.
m*v
13 楼
This is the basic probability.
P(nobody win)=P(1 ticket not win)^number of tickets
=(1-P(1 ticket win))^number of tickets
=(1-1/C(69,5)/26)^number of tickets
=(1-0.000000003422)^number of tickets
If number of tickets=300,000,000, P(nobody win)=35.82%
If number of tickets=600,000,000, P(nobody win)=12.8%
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: any soirce on the formula
P(nobody win)=P(1 ticket not win)^number of tickets
=(1-P(1 ticket win))^number of tickets
=(1-1/C(69,5)/26)^number of tickets
=(1-0.000000003422)^number of tickets
If number of tickets=300,000,000, P(nobody win)=35.82%
If number of tickets=600,000,000, P(nobody win)=12.8%
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: any soirce on the formula
p*e
14 楼
I don't understand. But I guess u r right.
【在 m*******v 的大作中提到】
: This is the basic probability.
: P(nobody win)=P(1 ticket not win)^number of tickets
: =(1-P(1 ticket win))^number of tickets
: =(1-1/C(69,5)/26)^number of tickets
: =(1-0.000000003422)^number of tickets
: If number of tickets=300,000,000, P(nobody win)=35.82%
: If number of tickets=600,000,000, P(nobody win)=12.8%
【在 m*******v 的大作中提到】
: This is the basic probability.
: P(nobody win)=P(1 ticket not win)^number of tickets
: =(1-P(1 ticket win))^number of tickets
: =(1-1/C(69,5)/26)^number of tickets
: =(1-0.000000003422)^number of tickets
: If number of tickets=300,000,000, P(nobody win)=35.82%
: If number of tickets=600,000,000, P(nobody win)=12.8%
d*g
15 楼
哦，卖3亿张才有60%概率胜出，6亿张80%，其实无论头奖有多大，中奖概率都一样，这
个powerball 其实很坑爹
个powerball 其实很坑爹
S*n
16 楼
为什么把3亿组合都买了还不是100%中？
【在 d*****g 的大作中提到】
: 哦，卖3亿张才有60%概率胜出，6亿张80%，其实无论头奖有多大，中奖概率都一样，这
: 个powerball 其实很坑爹
【在 d*****g 的大作中提到】
: 哦，卖3亿张才有60%概率胜出，6亿张80%，其实无论头奖有多大，中奖概率都一样，这
: 个powerball 其实很坑爹
m*v
17 楼
彩票本来就是一本万利的生意。 最赚的永远是政府。大家小赌怡情，中了未必是好事
，有横财就可能有横祸。
【在 d*****g 的大作中提到】
: 哦，卖3亿张才有60%概率胜出，6亿张80%，其实无论头奖有多大，中奖概率都一样，这
: 个powerball 其实很坑爹
，有横财就可能有横祸。
【在 d*****g 的大作中提到】
: 哦，卖3亿张才有60%概率胜出，6亿张80%，其实无论头奖有多大，中奖概率都一样，这
: 个powerball 其实很坑爹
m*v
18 楼
因为现实生活中3亿张彩票会有重复。
【在 S*******n 的大作中提到】
: 为什么把3亿组合都买了还不是100%中？
【在 S*******n 的大作中提到】
: 为什么把3亿组合都买了还不是100%中？
d*g
19 楼
大部分人都是随机买，不是逐个买，所以不是每个号都会抽到啊
【在 S*******n 的大作中提到】
: 为什么把3亿组合都买了还不是100%中？
【在 S*******n 的大作中提到】
: 为什么把3亿组合都买了还不是100%中？
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