从这篇文中沙特的立场看，油价绝无可能短时间内返回40 - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

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从这篇文中沙特的立场看，油价绝无可能短时间内返回40

从这篇文中沙特的立场看，油价绝无可能短时间内返回40# Stock

l*w2016-02-24 08:02

1 楼

Saudi Arabia to U.S. Oilmen: Cut Costs or Exit the Business
February 23, 2016 — 6:37 PM EST
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-23/saudi-arabia-
感觉沙特就是要把北美大部分油厂赶出business。
美国油股的痛估计要持续半年到一年，就是很多石油公司关门才行。
因为美油不死，沙特不会采取任何措施缓解glut。
它就是要维持这个低价，挤死美油。

u*e2016-02-24 08:02

2 楼

Do you really believe the supply-demand imbalance pushed the oil price down
to $30?
$40 oil might come sooner than you expected I believe

【在 l*w 的大作中提到】

: Saudi Arabia to U.S. Oilmen: Cut Costs or Exit the Business
: February 23, 2016 — 6:37 PM EST
: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-23/saudi-arabia-
: 感觉沙特就是要把北美大部分油厂赶出business。
: 美国油股的痛估计要持续半年到一年，就是很多石油公司关门才行。
: 因为美油不死，沙特不会采取任何措施缓解glut。
: 它就是要维持这个低价，挤死美油。

u*32016-02-24 08:02

3 楼

不要啊，再去一次25先啊，我还得上货呢！
这么早就开始牛不好啊。。。

l*w2016-02-24 08:02

4 楼

我以前挺乐观的，但现在一点不乐观，这个到40至少要半年。
因为北美油厂不痛死，沙特不罢休，而这个过程不是很快就能完成。
估计在25和40间（当然这个区间下限，俺不很确定）要徘徊很久。

down

【在 u********e 的大作中提到】

: Do you really believe the supply-demand imbalance pushed the oil price down
: to $30?
: $40 oil might come sooner than you expected I believe

u*e2016-02-24 08:02

5 楼

One thing you might want to know is that the global oil production is about
$50M barrels per day, but the oil contract traded more than $600M per day.
So what is the drive of oil price? :)

【在 l*w 的大作中提到】

: 我以前挺乐观的，但现在一点不乐观，这个到40至少要半年。
: 因为北美油厂不痛死，沙特不罢休，而这个过程不是很快就能完成。
: 估计在25和40间（当然这个区间下限，俺不很确定）要徘徊很久。
:
: down

H*32016-02-24 08:02

6 楼

媒体这么说说你就信了？

【在 l*w 的大作中提到】

E*r2016-02-24 08:02

7 楼

其实不少油公司已经大幅减产了，沙特也不是现在做这个打算，看样子油价快起来了。
这种政治人物的话不能去信。说实话，美国人让他减就减，不干就弄点苦头给他。

l*w2016-02-24 08:02

8 楼

怎么是媒体说。里面是oil producer们在说。自己看吧。
The world’s most powerful oilman brought a harsh message to Houston for
executives hoping for a rescue from low prices: high-cost producers -- many
of them sitting in the room -- need to either “lower costs, borrow cash or
liquidate."
For the thousands of executives attending the IHS CERAWeek conference, the
message from Saudi Arabia oil minister Ali al-Naimi means deeper spending
cuts, laying off more roughnecks and idling drilling rigs.
"It sounds harsh, and unfortunately it is, but it is the most efficient way
to rebalance markets," Naimi told the audience in Houston on Tuesday.
As many as 74 North American producers face significant difficulties in
sustaining debt, according to credit rating firm Moody’s Investors Service.
Shale explorers from Texas to North Dakota will be “decimated” in coming
months amid a wave of restructurings and bankruptcies, said Mark Papa, the
former EOG Resources Inc. chief executive officer who helped create the
shale industry more than a decade ago. The survivors will be more
conservative, Papa, who is now a partner at private-equity firm Riverstone
Holdings LLC, said during a panel discussion on Tuesday.
Wider Pain
The message will resonate beyond the American energy industry as declining
spending, rising debts and layoffs are starting to spread to Main Street,
with the impact spreading from regional banks in Oklahoma to the economies
of cash-strapped Venezuela and Brazil. West Texas Intermediate, the
benchmark U.S. crude, slipped 30 percent last year amid a global glut and
was at $31.24 a barrel at 2:45 p.m. in Hong Kong on Wednesday, down 2
percent for the session.
For the oil industry itself, the warning is a sign of more months -- and
perhaps years -- of financial pain. The S&P 500 Oil and Gas index has fallen
roughly 60 percent since mid-2014 to its lowest since 2009. The debt of
junk-rated U.S. oil companies is yielding more than 20 percent, the highest
in at least 20 years, according to Bank of America Corp.
Naimi told the executives in Houston that Saudi Arabia believed that
freezing oil production -- as it just agreed with Russia -- would be enough
to eventually balance the market. Over time, high-cost producers will get
out of the business, and rising demand will slowly eat up the oversupply, he
said. The International Energy Agency believes that means another two years
of low prices.
The freeze agreement isn’t "cutting production. That is not going to happen
," Naimi said.
Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Qatar have discussed holding a meeting
in mid-March for OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers that support the production
freeze, Venezuela Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino said on Twitter. All oil
producers are being consulted to determine where and when the meeting will
be held, Del Pino said. Venezuela has been lobbying for producers to support
prices, with Del Pino circling the globe to drum support.
In Houston, Naimi faced the very same people that Saudi Arabia is trying to
put out of business -- from North Dakota shale and Canadian tar sands to the
deepwater fields offshore Brazil -- who need prices far above current
levels to make profits. For the past year and a half, they have been
fighting for survival after Naimi led OPEC into a price war against high-
cost producers in November 2014. Naimi hadn’t spoke in the U.S. in public
since then.
"Cutting low-cost production to subsidize higher cost supplies only delays
an inevitable reckoning," Naimi said.
Output Cut?
Oman Oil Minister Mohammed Hamed Saif Al-Rumhy said OPEC and non-OPEC
producers need to cut oil output by 5 to 10 percent to stabilize the market.
The country is ready to cut 100,000 barrels a day as part of any deal, he
said.
The harsh medicine advocated by Naimi is already affecting the wellhead. In
North Dakota, production from the prolific Bakken formation suffered its
first year-on-year drop in a decade in September. In Texas, home of the
Eagle Ford and Permian basins, output in November fell on an annual basis
the first time since 2010.
The shale revolution -- a highlight of past IHS CERAWeek events when the
industry was growing and companies such as EOG and Continental Resources Inc
. were the darling of the market -- caught OPEC largely off-guard. The group
, which accounts for roughly 40 percent of the world’s oil supply, first
ignored the revolution only to later realize its power as shale wells
flooded markets. Today, OPEC is still coming to terms with the revolution,
surprised by its resilience in the face of low oil prices.
"Shale oil in the United States, I don’t know how we are going to live
together," Abdalla Salem El-Badri, OPEC secretary-general, told the same
conference in Houston on Monday. Naimi made clear, however, he knew how OPEC
would coexist with high cost producers like shale: putting as many
companies as possible out of business.
While Naimi insisted that Saudi Arabia wasn’t at war with shale, or any
other producer, he was clear in his aim. "We are doing what every other
industry representative in this room is doing," he told the audience. "
Efficient markets will determine where on the cost curve the marginal barrel
resides."
“It’s going to be really, really ugly to get through this valley,” Papa
said.

【在 H***3 的大作中提到】

: 媒体这么说说你就信了？

H*32016-02-24 08:02

9 楼

油老板让你我都知道什么时候油价要涨还玩个屁啊！

many
or
way

【在 l*w 的大作中提到】

: 怎么是媒体说。里面是oil producer们在说。自己看吧。
: The world’s most powerful oilman brought a harsh message to Houston for
: executives hoping for a rescue from low prices: high-cost producers -- many
: of them sitting in the room -- need to either “lower costs, borrow cash or
: liquidate."
: For the thousands of executives attending the IHS CERAWeek conference, the
: message from Saudi Arabia oil minister Ali al-Naimi means deeper spending
: cuts, laying off more roughnecks and idling drilling rigs.
: "It sounds harsh, and unfortunately it is, but it is the most efficient way
: to rebalance markets," Naimi told the audience in Houston on Tuesday.

l*n2016-02-24 08:02

10 楼

低油价可以让美国的shale oil producers破产，沙特做到这个不难。可是接下来怎么
办呢？即使这些shale oil producers破产了，那些油田和技术都在。无非就是被其他
公司收购了而已，也就是仅仅换了个owner。等油价起来了，照样生产。沙特不会真的
幼稚到觉得能靠低油价把美国的shale oil给搞死吧。

s*n2016-02-24 08:02

11 楼

这也是我不理解的。破产重组后的大公司会更有竞争力，提供更低价的油，拥有更好的
油田资源。最理想的是让那些公司半死不活的。除非沙特就想一辈子这么低价格的卖油
。怎么想怎么不划算。

【在 l*******n 的大作中提到】

: 低油价可以让美国的shale oil producers破产，沙特做到这个不难。可是接下来怎么
: 办呢？即使这些shale oil producers破产了，那些油田和技术都在。无非就是被其他
: 公司收购了而已，也就是仅仅换了个owner。等油价起来了，照样生产。沙特不会真的
: 幼稚到觉得能靠低油价把美国的shale oil给搞死吧。

b*e2016-02-24 08:02

12 楼

【在 l*******n 的大作中提到】

x*12016-02-24 08:02

13 楼

没有你们这些傻子做对手盘，我们怎么挣钱？

n*s2016-02-24 08:02

14 楼

这个市场能买了还能睡个安稳觉的就只剩油了，屯点，不是底的话继续吞，跟它耗着，
就算为了一直能加便宜的油也值

O*g2016-02-24 08:02

15 楼

居然还有人认为沙特搞低油价是为了搞死美国油企？看看国际足联的下场就知道了，国
际足联只不过是黑了美国申办而已，如果沙特是想黑美国的石油产业，死都不知道怎么
死的，明显沙特是受美国指使才这么干的

【在 s****n 的大作中提到】

: 这也是我不理解的。破产重组后的大公司会更有竞争力，提供更低价的油，拥有更好的
: 油田资源。最理想的是让那些公司半死不活的。除非沙特就想一辈子这么低价格的卖油
: 。怎么想怎么不划算。

s*92016-02-24 08:02

16 楼

总算还有明白人
美国做这个局肯定得割肉，但是想搞死的是俄罗斯

【在 O**********g 的大作中提到】

: 居然还有人认为沙特搞低油价是为了搞死美国油企？看看国际足联的下场就知道了，国
: 际足联只不过是黑了美国申办而已，如果沙特是想黑美国的石油产业，死都不知道怎么
: 死的，明显沙特是受美国指使才这么干的

g*c2016-02-24 08:02

17 楼

对，沙特王室在中东特别需要美国的保护，能搞死他们的因素太多了，现在又加上个
ISIS

【在 O**********g 的大作中提到】

w*r2016-02-24 08:02

18 楼

我也同意沙特不会真的幼稚到觉得能靠低油价把美国的shale oil给搞死吧。
这是一点，
另外一点是美国石油的出口禁令解除了，对沙特根本就是坏消息，

【在 l*******n 的大作中提到】

s*i2016-02-24 08:02

19 楼

石油局是美国做的，这一点是肯定的，目标是产油国，很多产油国都是反美的，包括支
持恐怖分子的金主们。沙特在这里面是个啥角色，不得而知，因为它的损失也是巨大的
，如果油价持续30，沙特2018年就破产了。

K*c2016-02-24 08:02

20 楼

经过一次大规模破产重组，下一轮的投资会非常谨慎，融资会非常困难，进入门栏会大
大提高。其实如果还是那些大的Player，控制产量和价格不是太大问题。

【在 s****n 的大作中提到】

K*c2016-02-24 08:02

21 楼

How to balance to new output from Iran? USA production cut does really
matter much. Also heard of the USA deep water could be a problem soon (not
sure exactly though).
Globally, the output will not decrease at all.
On the demand side, I do not see any positive elements yet this year.

down

【在 u********e 的大作中提到】

: Do you really believe the supply-demand imbalance pushed the oil price down
: to $30?
: $40 oil might come sooner than you expected I believe