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又一大波牛市来袭

又一大波牛市来袭# Stock

s*t2016-07-19 07:07

1 楼

今天cnbc的新闻：
To the mattresses: Cash levels highest in nearly 15 years
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/19/investor-cash-levels-highest-in-15-years-according-to-bank-of-america-merrill-lynch-survey.html
换句话说，站在场外，等着抄底的钱达到了15年最高。
股市就算跌，又能跌到哪儿去呢？一旦跌，抄底的钱入场，市场立刻就会给出熊军乏力
的信息，结果是，本来上涨乏力的大盘反而因此获得了上攻的动力。
做熊的，死了这条心吧，这辈子都没指望了。
基本的逻辑很简单，市场不可能给出做空可以盈利的信息。这样的信息一旦出现，各国
的央行一定会释放出利好对冲。只有重大的意外出现，做空才有机会。问题是，重大的
意外出现的概率有多高？你愿意将自己的钱用来押注小概率事件吗？就算你愿意，市场
也不愿意。最终如果意外真的出现了，场外有那么多观望资金，你要是跑得不利索，还
是被虐。

s*d2016-07-19 07:07

2 楼

明天就开空仓，上TZA

N*d2016-07-19 07:07

3 楼

据说拉痢要当选了

r*e2016-07-19 07:07

4 楼

射哥吓着我了
[在 shot (野水横木) 的大作中提到：]
:今天cnbc的新闻：
:To the mattresses: Cash levels highest in nearly 15 years
:http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/19/investor-cash-levels-highest-in-15-years-according-to-bank-of-america-merrill-lynch-survey.html
:换句话说，站在场外，等着抄底的钱达到了15年最高。
:股市就算跌，又能跌到哪儿去呢？一旦跌，抄底的钱入场，市场立刻就会给出熊军乏
力的信息，结果是，本来上涨乏力的大盘反而因此获得了上攻的动力。
:做熊的，死了这条心吧，这辈子都没指望了。
:基本的逻辑很简单，市场不可能给出做空可以盈利的信息。这样的信息一旦出现，各
国的央行一定会释放出利好对冲。只有重大的意外出现，做空才有机会。问题是，重大
的意外出现的概率有多高？你愿意将自己的钱用来押注小概率事件吗？就算你愿意，市
场也不愿意。最终如果意外真的出现了，场外有那么多观望资金，你要是跑得不利索，
还是被虐。

h*o2016-07-19 07:07

5 楼

第二季度的报告普遍不好，大部分盈利比去年继续下降。公司要增长股市才能持续增长
。SP 500和公司的盈利关系很大。现在怕的就是经济下滑是暂时性的还是recession的
开始？如果真是recession，钱再多也推不起股市。从另一个角度看，为什么场外钱那
么多？不就是因为怕recession，或是目前经济不好，不愿意入市吗？

S*P2016-07-19 07:07

6 楼

等recession来了再逃吧

【在 h********o 的大作中提到】

: 第二季度的报告普遍不好，大部分盈利比去年继续下降。公司要增长股市才能持续增长
: 。SP 500和公司的盈利关系很大。现在怕的就是经济下滑是暂时性的还是recession的
: 开始？如果真是recession，钱再多也推不起股市。从另一个角度看，为什么场外钱那
: 么多？不就是因为怕recession，或是目前经济不好，不愿意入市吗？

h*o2016-07-19 07:07

7 楼

问题是recession能不能来还不确定，要真是确定了recession，那就是漫漫熊市了，大
盘不会出现新高。

【在 S**P 的大作中提到】

: 等recession来了再逃吧

S*P2016-07-19 07:07

8 楼

嗯，现在看起来recession的概率很低吧。
[在 hualianmao (HM) 的大作中提到：]
:问题是recession能不能来还不确定，要真是确定了recession，那就是漫漫熊市了，
大盘不会出现新高。

s*t2016-07-19 07:07

9 楼

recession来了，大盘也不会跌。
sp的营收早就进入recession了，有影响吗？
要想大跌，不仅recession要来，而且要来的特别迅猛，来得出人意料，这样做空才有
机会赚钱。
recession要是不来呢？盘整了这么久的大盘，形成了一个铁底，上爆起来动能会很足

【在 h********o 的大作中提到】

: 问题是recession能不能来还不确定，要真是确定了recession，那就是漫漫熊市了，大
: 盘不会出现新高。

h*o2016-07-19 07:07

10 楼

你不会认为美股只涨不跌吧？去年八月和今年年初的时候算不算大跌？两次都从2000
点以上跌到了1800点左右，不到一年的时间出现了两次，当时有recession吗？现在的
情况比去年好吗？我不是说一定会大跌，但是只涨不跌的股市我还没有见过。

【在 s**t 的大作中提到】

: recession来了，大盘也不会跌。
: sp的营收早就进入recession了，有影响吗？
: 要想大跌，不仅recession要来，而且要来的特别迅猛，来得出人意料，这样做空才有
: 机会赚钱。
: recession要是不来呢？盘整了这么久的大盘，形成了一个铁底，上爆起来动能会很足

x*12016-07-19 07:07

11 楼

一口水碰到屏幕，你妈盘后刚把空仓割了，满仓spy。坑死老子了。

g*a2016-07-19 07:07

12 楼

拜谢射哥,终于给了句话，大盘可以动了。明天赚钱了给你发包子！

g*h2016-07-19 07:07

13 楼

you miss the tone here. the main focus/expectation is that this quarter will
do better than last quarter, and the fact is that more companies will be
likely to beat this quarter because of the lowered expectation since last
quarter. so if I've not made it clear to you, I want to say that the decline
compared to last year is not a problem.

【在 h********o 的大作中提到】

h*o2016-07-19 07:07

14 楼

SP500 PE is more than 25 now, this is high. The SP 500 has to make good
earning to sustain this high PE. The stock market going high and people
expect the earning will catch up eventually. Based on history data, Long
term return of S P 500 is correlating well with PE. The earning drop might
be temporary, but if earning keeps dropping quarter by quarter, we are in
recession and the market will go down. People still expect the earning will
back up, but nobody can tell for sure. There is a lots of uncertainty for
today's market. It can drop any time, it might keep at high level. There
is no way you can tell market won't drop. For buy and hold investors, today
's market is not a good value, the expected return and risk is not worth it
for many investors

: you miss the tone here. the main focus/expectation is that this
quarter will

: do better than last quarter, and the fact is that more companies will
be

: likely to beat this quarter because of the lowered expectation since
last

: quarter. so if I've not made it clear to you, I want to say that the
decline

: compared to last year is not a problem.

【在 g*******h 的大作中提到】

: you miss the tone here. the main focus/expectation is that this quarter will
: do better than last quarter, and the fact is that more companies will be
: likely to beat this quarter because of the lowered expectation since last
: quarter. so if I've not made it clear to you, I want to say that the decline
: compared to last year is not a problem.

g*h2016-07-19 07:07

15 楼

totally agree with you about the high valuation here, however, this high
valuation problem has been for quite a while and it's not a surprise to the
market.
The high valuation is even pushed further by the amount of cash from the
stimulus worldwide and the "safe heaven" effect of US market.
And for now I don't think it's suddenly turning itself
into a big issue, especially at this ER season when better than last quarter
earnings are anticipated. If the high PE during last quarter didn't crash
the market, why should it now when economic situations are expected to start
improving. If this ER season consolidates this expectation, I think we are
safe now.
If you are expecting a big correction, I think timing is more important. we
may see it after this ER season, but before August, we are very likely to
be safe.

might
will
for
today
it

【在 h********o 的大作中提到】

: SP500 PE is more than 25 now, this is high. The SP 500 has to make good
: earning to sustain this high PE. The stock market going high and people
: expect the earning will catch up eventually. Based on history data, Long
: term return of S P 500 is correlating well with PE. The earning drop might
: be temporary, but if earning keeps dropping quarter by quarter, we are in
: recession and the market will go down. People still expect the earning will
: back up, but nobody can tell for sure. There is a lots of uncertainty for
: today's market. It can drop any time, it might keep at high level. There
: is no way you can tell market won't drop. For buy and hold investors, today
: 's market is not a good value, the expected return and risk is not worth it

l*72016-07-19 07:07

16 楼

既然预测暴跌不可能，何必花时间去timing这个暴跌呢？当然，如果某人保持每隔几天
，喊一嗓子暴跌，会很大可能有一次（有一天）碰对的，呵呵

the
quarter
crash
start
are

【在 g*******h 的大作中提到】

: totally agree with you about the high valuation here, however, this high
: valuation problem has been for quite a while and it's not a surprise to the
: market.
: The high valuation is even pushed further by the amount of cash from the
: stimulus worldwide and the "safe heaven" effect of US market.
: And for now I don't think it's suddenly turning itself
: into a big issue, especially at this ER season when better than last quarter
: earnings are anticipated. If the high PE during last quarter didn't crash
: the market, why should it now when economic situations are expected to start
: improving. If this ER season consolidates this expectation, I think we are

g*h2016-07-19 07:07

17 楼

I never said not possible, I just believe during this ER season it's very
likely to be safe if companies report better than expected earnings showing
improvement over last quarter.

【在 l********7 的大作中提到】

: 既然预测暴跌不可能，何必花时间去timing这个暴跌呢？当然，如果某人保持每隔几天
: ，喊一嗓子暴跌，会很大可能有一次（有一天）碰对的，呵呵
:
: the
: quarter
: crash
: start
: are

c*o2016-07-19 07:07

18 楼

明天一定要逢高开空仓配合射哥

h*o2016-07-19 07:07

19 楼

不暴跌就一定上涨？难道股市就只有暴跌持续上涨两种走法，连续阴跌呢？小幅度来
回震荡后再往下走呢？还有各种各样的走法都有可能。下跌不一定就一种跌法，上涨也
不一定就一种涨法。无论如何走法，当PE在25这个位置的时候，根据历史数据来看，
未来6个月的回报总体是负数。历史数据八月份的回报总体也是负数，就是从历史来看
，8月份是个很不好的月份。具体未来的市场如何走，就看你是根据什么来推测了。

【在 l********7 的大作中提到】

S*P2016-07-19 07:07

20 楼

我感觉现在很多股票的PE已经不能用过去的模式分析了。因为现在的利率实在太低了
。钱又太多了！很多人会选择买那些高股息的安全股。
[在 hualianmao (HM) 的大作中提到：]
:SP500 PE is more than 25 now, this is high. The SP 500 has to make good
:earning to sustain this high PE. The stock market going high and people
:expect the earning will catch up eventually. Based on history data, Long
:term return of S P 500 is correlating well with PE. The earning drop might
be temporary, but if earning keeps dropping quarter by quarter, we are in
:recession and the market will go down. People still expect the earning
will back up, but nobody can tell for sure. There is a lots of uncertainty
for today's market. It can drop any time, it might keep at high level.
There
:is no way you can tell market won't drop. For buy and hold investors,
today's market is not a good value, the expected return and risk is not
worth it for many investors
:<br>: you miss the tone here. the main focus/expectation is that
this
:quarter will
:<br>: do better than last quarter, and the fact is that more
companies will be
:<br>: likely to beat this quarter because of the lowered
expectation since
:..........

c*l2016-07-19 07:07

21 楼

场外钱确实很多，而且是越来越多，从他国逃难来的。。。这一段上升也许就是这些资
金所为，跟现金抢房一样一样的。。。估计￥暴贬以前不会大跌，(暴贬表示基本出清
完了)，中途可能有技术性回调。。。
如果没有出现大幅飚升，下跌应该是买入机会，相反进入bearish，参见 reflection
theory

s*t2016-07-19 07:07

22 楼

大盘刚突破不久，居然想着做空，真是吃饱了撑的。哪种TA会让你这么操作？

【在 c*****o 的大作中提到】

: 明天一定要逢高开空仓配合射哥

g*h2016-07-19 07:07

23 楼

As I said, it's safe. In those historic data, which case is similar to
the money policy and interest rate cut worldwide like this?
[在 hualianmao (HM) 的大作中提到：]
:不暴跌就一定上涨？难道股市就只有暴跌持续上涨两种走法，连续阴跌呢？小幅度来
:回震荡后再往下走呢？还有各种各样的走法都有可能。下跌不一定就一种跌法，上涨
也不一定就一种涨法。无论如何走法，当PE在25这个位置的时候，根据历史数据来看，
:未来6个月的回报总体是负数。历史数据八月份的回报总体也是负数，就是从历史来看
:，8月份是个很不好的月份。具体未来的市场如何走，就看你是根据什么来推测了。

l*p2016-07-19 07:07

24 楼

刻舟求剑，历史上还没有过如此宽松的资金环境
看看日本德国的国债收益率吧，我已经开始习惯了
所以25的PE，贵吗？

【在 h********o 的大作中提到】

: 不暴跌就一定上涨？难道股市就只有暴跌持续上涨两种走法，连续阴跌呢？小幅度来
: 回震荡后再往下走呢？还有各种各样的走法都有可能。下跌不一定就一种跌法，上涨也
: 不一定就一种涨法。无论如何走法，当PE在25这个位置的时候，根据历史数据来看，
: 未来6个月的回报总体是负数。历史数据八月份的回报总体也是负数，就是从历史来看
: ，8月份是个很不好的月份。具体未来的市场如何走，就看你是根据什么来推测了。

f*d2016-07-19 07:07

25 楼

不要被这两天的银行财报忽悠了，大部分公司第二季财报都不好，盈利继续下降的

【在 s**t 的大作中提到】

: 今天cnbc的新闻：
: To the mattresses: Cash levels highest in nearly 15 years
: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/19/investor-cash-levels-highest-in-15-years-according-to-bank-of-america-merrill-lynch-survey.html
: 换句话说，站在场外，等着抄底的钱达到了15年最高。
: 股市就算跌，又能跌到哪儿去呢？一旦跌，抄底的钱入场，市场立刻就会给出熊军乏力
: 的信息，结果是，本来上涨乏力的大盘反而因此获得了上攻的动力。
: 做熊的，死了这条心吧，这辈子都没指望了。
: 基本的逻辑很简单，市场不可能给出做空可以盈利的信息。这样的信息一旦出现，各国
: 的央行一定会释放出利好对冲。只有重大的意外出现，做空才有机会。问题是，重大的
: 意外出现的概率有多高？你愿意将自己的钱用来押注小概率事件吗？就算你愿意，市场