<signal and noise>这本书# Stock
g*t
1 楼
这本书没什么数学技术。但是远胜技术书籍。很多预测的实践tricks
The Signal and The Noise was published in the United States on September 27,
2012. It reached the New York Times Best Sellers List as #12 for non-
fiction hardback books after its first week in print. It dropped to #20 in
the second week, before rising to #13 in the third, and remaining on the non
-fiction hardback top 15 list for the following 13 weeks, with a highest
weekly ranking of #4.[90] Sales increased after the election on November 6,
jumping 800% and becoming the second best seller on Amazon.com.[91]
The book describes methods of mathematical model building using probability
and statistics. Silver takes a big-picture approach to using statistical
tools, combining sources of unique data (e.g., timing a minor league ball
player's fastball using a radar gun), with historical data and principles of
sound statistical analysis; Silver argues that many of these are violated
by many pollsters and pundits who nonetheless have important media roles.
Case studies in the book include baseball, elections, climate change, the
financial crash, poker, and weather forecasting. These different topics
illustrate different statistical principles. As a reviewer in The New York
Times notes: "It’s largely about evaluating predictions in a variety of
fields, from finance to weather to epidemiology. We learn about a handful of
successes: when, for instance, meteorologists predict a hurricane’s
landfall 72 hours in advance.... But mostly we learn about failures. It
turns out we’re not even close to predicting the next catastrophic
earthquake or the spread of the next killer bird flu, despite the enormous
amounts of brainpower trained on these questions in the past few decades".[
92]
The Signal and The Noise was published in the United States on September 27,
2012. It reached the New York Times Best Sellers List as #12 for non-
fiction hardback books after its first week in print. It dropped to #20 in
the second week, before rising to #13 in the third, and remaining on the non
-fiction hardback top 15 list for the following 13 weeks, with a highest
weekly ranking of #4.[90] Sales increased after the election on November 6,
jumping 800% and becoming the second best seller on Amazon.com.[91]
The book describes methods of mathematical model building using probability
and statistics. Silver takes a big-picture approach to using statistical
tools, combining sources of unique data (e.g., timing a minor league ball
player's fastball using a radar gun), with historical data and principles of
sound statistical analysis; Silver argues that many of these are violated
by many pollsters and pundits who nonetheless have important media roles.
Case studies in the book include baseball, elections, climate change, the
financial crash, poker, and weather forecasting. These different topics
illustrate different statistical principles. As a reviewer in The New York
Times notes: "It’s largely about evaluating predictions in a variety of
fields, from finance to weather to epidemiology. We learn about a handful of
successes: when, for instance, meteorologists predict a hurricane’s
landfall 72 hours in advance.... But mostly we learn about failures. It
turns out we’re not even close to predicting the next catastrophic
earthquake or the spread of the next killer bird flu, despite the enormous
amounts of brainpower trained on these questions in the past few decades".[
92]
