There is a solid path for a Trump-win situation - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

There is a solid path for a Trump-win situation# Stock

c*v2016-11-04 07:11

1 楼

According to Nate Silver's web site, the probability of trump win is about
30%. Let's assume it is about 30% with a possible very wide error if you do
not
believe Nate. Anyway, number is not important.
Now, let's think about the similar scenario in real life.
My 20 years basketball watching experience told me that
a 70-30 case implied:
(1) Hillary and Trump are at the same level now.
(2) I am not going to be surprised if Trump won.
Think about the shit Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs.
Will you be surprised if Rockets won in one of the games?
No. It just happens naturally. Both are playoff teams.
[
Of course, I will be surprised if Rockets won a 7 games series.
But you cannot vote 7 times for the election.
]
Will you bet on a regular season game of Rockets vs Spurs?
It depends. I personally will not since there will many other
better opptunites. It is silly to bet on playoff level teams' single game.

u*n2016-11-04 07:11

2 楼

还是拿nfl还比把，就一场球，床铺是扭腰的就小飞机吧，希拉里就算是bears吧，2个
烂队现在开打的话谁能赢？

u*n2016-11-04 07:11

3 楼

一看这周是小飞机对迈阿密，决战弗罗里达，飞机赢了俺就投trump，阿米赢了就投瘌
痢。。

c*v2016-11-04 07:11

4 楼

I did not watch football.
For NBA, I do not bet on a single game between play off teams.
(though Trump may be as shitty as the Houston Rockets.)

【在 u******n 的大作中提到】

: 还是拿nfl还比把，就一场球，床铺是扭腰的就小飞机吧，希拉里就算是bears吧，2个
: 烂队现在开打的话谁能赢？

c*v2016-11-04 07:11

5 楼

说说你有什么招？ long only
我只能买点黄金。A股没什么好做的。

【在 u******n 的大作中提到】

: 一看这周是小飞机对迈阿密，决战弗罗里达，飞机赢了俺就投trump，阿米赢了就投瘌
: 痢。。

B*e2016-11-04 07:11

6 楼

Trump is Cavaliers, Hillary is Philadelphia 76ers.

【在 c*******v 的大作中提到】

: I did not watch football.
: For NBA, I do not bet on a single game between play off teams.
: (though Trump may be as shitty as the Houston Rockets.)

g*t2016-11-04 07:11

7 楼

Do you mean you will be surprised if Hillary won?
I am not going to be surprised for both cases.

【在 B******e 的大作中提到】

: Trump is Cavaliers, Hillary is Philadelphia 76ers.

h*n2016-11-04 07:11

8 楼

希拉里比bears 人好歹干掉了明尼苏达吧

: 还是拿nfl还比把，就一场球，床铺是扭腰的就小飞机吧，希拉里就算是bears吧
，2个

: 烂队现在开打的话谁能赢？

【在 u******n 的大作中提到】

: 一看这周是小飞机对迈阿密，决战弗罗里达，飞机赢了俺就投trump，阿米赢了就投瘌
: 痢。。

h*n2016-11-04 07:11

9 楼

希拉里比bears 人好歹干掉了明尼苏达吧

: 还是拿nfl还比把，就一场球，床铺是扭腰的就小飞机吧，希拉里就算是bears吧
，2个

: 烂队现在开打的话谁能赢？

【在 u******n 的大作中提到】

: 一看这周是小飞机对迈阿密，决战弗罗里达，飞机赢了俺就投trump，阿米赢了就投瘌
: 痢。。

h*n2016-11-04 07:11

10 楼

美国大选不是看谁的选票多。是看谁能拿下摇摆州。
对于共和党来说，就算全国范围内选票多，只要输掉一个稍微大点儿的摇摆州，或者2
个小摇摆州，选举就结束了。

do

【在 c*******v 的大作中提到】

: According to Nate Silver's web site, the probability of trump win is about
: 30%. Let's assume it is about 30% with a possible very wide error if you do
: not
: believe Nate. Anyway, number is not important.
: Now, let's think about the similar scenario in real life.
: My 20 years basketball watching experience told me that
: a 70-30 case implied:
: (1) Hillary and Trump are at the same level now.
: (2) I am not going to be surprised if Trump won.
: Think about the shit Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs.

g*t2016-11-04 07:11

11 楼

You did not get it.
In whatever measurement, both Hillary and Trump are playoff teams.
That is why the Dollar index going down.

2

【在 h****n 的大作中提到】

: 美国大选不是看谁的选票多。是看谁能拿下摇摆州。
: 对于共和党来说，就算全国范围内选票多，只要输掉一个稍微大点儿的摇摆州，或者2
: 个小摇摆州，选举就结束了。
:
: do

c*v2016-11-04 07:11

12 楼

According to Nate Silver's web site, the probability of trump win is about
30%. Let's assume it is about 30% with a possible very wide error if you do
not
believe Nate. Anyway, number is not important.
Now, let's think about the similar scenario in real life.
My 20 years basketball watching experience told me that
a 70-30 case implied:
(1) Hillary and Trump are at the same level now.
(2) I am not going to be surprised if Trump won.
Think about the shit Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs.
Will you be surprised if Rockets won in one of the games?
No. It just happens naturally. Both are playoff teams.
[
Of course, I will be surprised if Rockets won a 7 games series.
But you cannot vote 7 times for the election.
]
Will you bet on a regular season game of Rockets vs Spurs?
It depends. I personally will not since there will many other
better opptunites. It is silly to bet on playoff level teams' single game.

u*n2016-11-04 07:11

13 楼

还是拿nfl还比把，就一场球，床铺是扭腰的就小飞机吧，希拉里就算是bears吧，2个
烂队现在开打的话谁能赢？

u*n2016-11-04 07:11

14 楼

一看这周是小飞机对迈阿密，决战弗罗里达，飞机赢了俺就投trump，阿米赢了就投瘌
痢。。

c*v2016-11-04 07:11

15 楼

I did not watch football.
For NBA, I do not bet on a single game between play off teams.
(though Trump may be as shitty as the Houston Rockets.)

【在 u******n 的大作中提到】

: 还是拿nfl还比把，就一场球，床铺是扭腰的就小飞机吧，希拉里就算是bears吧，2个
: 烂队现在开打的话谁能赢？

c*v2016-11-04 07:11

16 楼

说说你有什么招？ long only
我只能买点黄金。A股没什么好做的。

【在 u******n 的大作中提到】

: 一看这周是小飞机对迈阿密，决战弗罗里达，飞机赢了俺就投trump，阿米赢了就投瘌
: 痢。。

B*e2016-11-04 07:11

17 楼

Trump is Cavaliers, Hillary is Philadelphia 76ers.

【在 c*******v 的大作中提到】

: I did not watch football.
: For NBA, I do not bet on a single game between play off teams.
: (though Trump may be as shitty as the Houston Rockets.)

g*t2016-11-04 07:11

18 楼

Do you mean you will be surprised if Hillary won?
I am not going to be surprised for both cases.

【在 B******e 的大作中提到】

: Trump is Cavaliers, Hillary is Philadelphia 76ers.

h*n2016-11-04 07:11

19 楼

希拉里比bears 人好歹干掉了明尼苏达吧

: 还是拿nfl还比把，就一场球，床铺是扭腰的就小飞机吧，希拉里就算是bears吧
，2个

: 烂队现在开打的话谁能赢？

【在 u******n 的大作中提到】

: 一看这周是小飞机对迈阿密，决战弗罗里达，飞机赢了俺就投trump，阿米赢了就投瘌
: 痢。。

h*n2016-11-04 07:11

20 楼

希拉里比bears 人好歹干掉了明尼苏达吧

: 还是拿nfl还比把，就一场球，床铺是扭腰的就小飞机吧，希拉里就算是bears吧
，2个

: 烂队现在开打的话谁能赢？

【在 u******n 的大作中提到】

: 一看这周是小飞机对迈阿密，决战弗罗里达，飞机赢了俺就投trump，阿米赢了就投瘌
: 痢。。

h*n2016-11-04 07:11

21 楼

美国大选不是看谁的选票多。是看谁能拿下摇摆州。
对于共和党来说，就算全国范围内选票多，只要输掉一个稍微大点儿的摇摆州，或者2
个小摇摆州，选举就结束了。

do

【在 c*******v 的大作中提到】

: According to Nate Silver's web site, the probability of trump win is about
: 30%. Let's assume it is about 30% with a possible very wide error if you do
: not
: believe Nate. Anyway, number is not important.
: Now, let's think about the similar scenario in real life.
: My 20 years basketball watching experience told me that
: a 70-30 case implied:
: (1) Hillary and Trump are at the same level now.
: (2) I am not going to be surprised if Trump won.
: Think about the shit Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs.

g*t2016-11-04 07:11

22 楼

You did not get it.
In whatever measurement, both Hillary and Trump are playoff teams.
That is why the Dollar index going down.

2

【在 h****n 的大作中提到】

: 美国大选不是看谁的选票多。是看谁能拿下摇摆州。
: 对于共和党来说，就算全国范围内选票多，只要输掉一个稍微大点儿的摇摆州，或者2
: 个小摇摆州，选举就结束了。
:
: do

g*t2016-11-04 07:11

23 楼

抱怨统计专家不准的。
不妨rethink什么叫准什么叫不准。

do

【在 c*******v 的大作中提到】

: According to Nate Silver's web site, the probability of trump win is about
: 30%. Let's assume it is about 30% with a possible very wide error if you do
: not
: believe Nate. Anyway, number is not important.
: Now, let's think about the similar scenario in real life.
: My 20 years basketball watching experience told me that
: a 70-30 case implied:
: (1) Hillary and Trump are at the same level now.
: (2) I am not going to be surprised if Trump won.
: Think about the shit Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs.

g*t2016-11-04 07:11

24 楼

班主能不能mark这个贴。我认为4年后也许还能有参考价值。