数据说话，这种报告读起来比较有意思# Stock
m*n
1 楼
Craig Ellis对腾讯deal的评估：
We believe list ASP’s are $5k+ and could approach $10k, though volume
customers like Tencent would get a meaningful discounts. In this case we
suspect AI-based workload appetite spans Tencent’s services including
texting (Wechat 889MM monthly active users (MAU)), on-line gaming (#1 in
country for PC and smartphone), and instant messaging (868MM and 652MM total
and mobile MAU) and exclusive video, gaming, and music content as well as
its enterprise service offerings on the Cloud platform. The broader NVDA
Data Center and AI context is that activity levels, based on company
engagements, rose 4.7x in 2016 to 19.4k, with 5.8x growth with Internet
providers and 16x growth with software tools developers. In RILY’s view
this interest acceleration augurs well for strong Data Center sales growth
and platform revenues which we believe could exceed $1.500B per year in a
few years and approach $2.0B or more.
对任天堂deal的评估：
Reports suggest Nintendo’s (7974-TKS (NR)) Switch target builds could be
moving from the 16.0MM level we reported earlier this week toward 20.0MM.
While we’ll take a wait and see approach on modeling in the 25% upside to
expectations which just rose by 60% (and we’re well short of that too), we
see this as the latest example of product shipments and thus revenue and EPS
upside optionality that uniquely exists across NVDA’s businesses. Recall
we estimate the custom Tegra GPU’s have ASP’s of $45.0-$50.0, so 20.0MM
units would be worth $900.0MM, above the $720.0MM we reported earlier this
week. Nintendo’s President has also stated lifetime Switch sales could hit
110.0MM units, or 5x F17’s (end April) projection. Here again, too early to
count these chickens given customer acceptance, competitive, and gaming
title questions but at even half that level there’s potential for $2.475B
in NVDA Tegra sales. On a revenue sensitivity basis every $500.0MM in annual
sales adds $0.40 to EPS.
We believe list ASP’s are $5k+ and could approach $10k, though volume
customers like Tencent would get a meaningful discounts. In this case we
suspect AI-based workload appetite spans Tencent’s services including
texting (Wechat 889MM monthly active users (MAU)), on-line gaming (#1 in
country for PC and smartphone), and instant messaging (868MM and 652MM total
and mobile MAU) and exclusive video, gaming, and music content as well as
its enterprise service offerings on the Cloud platform. The broader NVDA
Data Center and AI context is that activity levels, based on company
engagements, rose 4.7x in 2016 to 19.4k, with 5.8x growth with Internet
providers and 16x growth with software tools developers. In RILY’s view
this interest acceleration augurs well for strong Data Center sales growth
and platform revenues which we believe could exceed $1.500B per year in a
few years and approach $2.0B or more.
对任天堂deal的评估：
Reports suggest Nintendo’s (7974-TKS (NR)) Switch target builds could be
moving from the 16.0MM level we reported earlier this week toward 20.0MM.
While we’ll take a wait and see approach on modeling in the 25% upside to
expectations which just rose by 60% (and we’re well short of that too), we
see this as the latest example of product shipments and thus revenue and EPS
upside optionality that uniquely exists across NVDA’s businesses. Recall
we estimate the custom Tegra GPU’s have ASP’s of $45.0-$50.0, so 20.0MM
units would be worth $900.0MM, above the $720.0MM we reported earlier this
week. Nintendo’s President has also stated lifetime Switch sales could hit
110.0MM units, or 5x F17’s (end April) projection. Here again, too early to
count these chickens given customer acceptance, competitive, and gaming
title questions but at even half that level there’s potential for $2.475B
in NVDA Tegra sales. On a revenue sensitivity basis every $500.0MM in annual
sales adds $0.40 to EPS.