Shale oil has nothing to do with the big picture# Stock
a*1
1 楼
If you think that OPEC cut will be compensated by US shale production gain
and thus the oil price will never go up, you are 100% wrong.
US shale production might have gone up a lot in the past 6 month, but the
further gain in production is much more difficult. The reason is that the
current production gain was mostly from the release of the production wells
that were curbed back in 2015 when oil was at $30. The new production gain
going forward has to come from new drilling and development, which is much
more difficult. It will be difficult to add 1M barrel a year for US share
companies, half a million? Maybe.
But more importantly, the shale only has about 10% of the world production
and the biggest missing piece was the offshore and deep water production.
Offshore production was about 30% of the world production and deep water was
about 40% of the total offshore production. So deep water production was
about 10M barrels/day.
The current world production was maintained/even increasing because of the
deep water projects initiated 5-7 years ago and those projects have long
cycles. The deep water production will peak in 2018 and nothing in the
pipeline for the foreseeable future. We are done with deep water projects,
and significant cut for the shallow water projects.
With the decay rate of 15%-20% for offshore field, it means every year
production has to increase 1.5M barrels just to keep up the production
starting in mid-2018. If you count shallow water the picture is even uglier.
Right now, it is balanced with a couple of more deep water project adding
online. The tide will turn next year this time!
That is why OPEC extending 9 month cut deal is significant. It will maintain
the price at around $50 in the short term and the balance will tip starting
as early as mid-2018, no later than mid-2019.
My prediction: we will see $100 oil in 2020. Mark my word.
and thus the oil price will never go up, you are 100% wrong.
US shale production might have gone up a lot in the past 6 month, but the
further gain in production is much more difficult. The reason is that the
current production gain was mostly from the release of the production wells
that were curbed back in 2015 when oil was at $30. The new production gain
going forward has to come from new drilling and development, which is much
more difficult. It will be difficult to add 1M barrel a year for US share
companies, half a million? Maybe.
But more importantly, the shale only has about 10% of the world production
and the biggest missing piece was the offshore and deep water production.
Offshore production was about 30% of the world production and deep water was
about 40% of the total offshore production. So deep water production was
about 10M barrels/day.
The current world production was maintained/even increasing because of the
deep water projects initiated 5-7 years ago and those projects have long
cycles. The deep water production will peak in 2018 and nothing in the
pipeline for the foreseeable future. We are done with deep water projects,
and significant cut for the shallow water projects.
With the decay rate of 15%-20% for offshore field, it means every year
production has to increase 1.5M barrels just to keep up the production
starting in mid-2018. If you count shallow water the picture is even uglier.
Right now, it is balanced with a couple of more deep water project adding
online. The tide will turn next year this time!
That is why OPEC extending 9 month cut deal is significant. It will maintain
the price at around $50 in the short term and the balance will tip starting
as early as mid-2018, no later than mid-2019.
My prediction: we will see $100 oil in 2020. Mark my word.
