夜大妈坐不住了，出来谈降息了# Stock
Y*n
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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/janet-yellen-recession-indicator-could-mean-
a-rate-cut-not-a-downturn.html
Former Fed Chair Yellen says bond market could be hinting need for rate cut
— not a recession
HONG KONG — Janet Yellen, the former chair of the Federal Reserve, said
Monday the recent triggering of a recession indicator in the U.S. bond
markets could signal the need for an interest rate cut and not a prolonged
economic downturn.
Stocks tumbled Friday after an inversion of the so-called yield curve in the
U.S. bond markets. This occurs when short-term rates surpass their longer-
term counterparts, which hurts bank lending profits and is considered a
warning sign of recession.
Yellen, who led the Fed from 2014 to 2018, was asked at a Hong Kong
conference about the yield curve inversion and whether it signals a looming
downturn.
“My own answer is no, I don’t see it as a signal of recession,” Yellen
said during a question and answer session at the Credit Suisse Asian
Financial Conference.
“In contrast to times past, there’s a tendency now for the yield curve to
be very flat,” she said, adding that it’s now easier for it to invert —
which traditionally meant investors had become concerned about a future
downturn. In technical terms, it’s when the spread between the three-month
Treasury bill yield and the 10-year note rate turns negative, which happened
on Friday for the first time since 2007.
“And in fact it might signal that the Fed would at some point need to cut
rates, but it certainly doesn’t signal that this is a set of developments
that would necessarily cause a recession,” Yellen added.
Yellen, a distinguished resident fellow at the Brookings Institution, said
she doesn’t see a recession as “particularly likely” though she did
stress that the U.S. economy is indeed slowing.
a-rate-cut-not-a-downturn.html
Former Fed Chair Yellen says bond market could be hinting need for rate cut
— not a recession
HONG KONG — Janet Yellen, the former chair of the Federal Reserve, said
Monday the recent triggering of a recession indicator in the U.S. bond
markets could signal the need for an interest rate cut and not a prolonged
economic downturn.
Stocks tumbled Friday after an inversion of the so-called yield curve in the
U.S. bond markets. This occurs when short-term rates surpass their longer-
term counterparts, which hurts bank lending profits and is considered a
warning sign of recession.
Yellen, who led the Fed from 2014 to 2018, was asked at a Hong Kong
conference about the yield curve inversion and whether it signals a looming
downturn.
“My own answer is no, I don’t see it as a signal of recession,” Yellen
said during a question and answer session at the Credit Suisse Asian
Financial Conference.
“In contrast to times past, there’s a tendency now for the yield curve to
be very flat,” she said, adding that it’s now easier for it to invert —
which traditionally meant investors had become concerned about a future
downturn. In technical terms, it’s when the spread between the three-month
Treasury bill yield and the 10-year note rate turns negative, which happened
on Friday for the first time since 2007.
“And in fact it might signal that the Fed would at some point need to cut
rates, but it certainly doesn’t signal that this is a set of developments
that would necessarily cause a recession,” Yellen added.
Yellen, a distinguished resident fellow at the Brookings Institution, said
she doesn’t see a recession as “particularly likely” though she did
stress that the U.S. economy is indeed slowing.