英国炒股大赛，小猫击败投资经理团队 - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

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英国炒股大赛，小猫击败投资经理团队

英国炒股大赛，小猫击败投资经理团队# WaterWorld - 未名水世界

S*g2013-01-18 08:01

1 楼

美国投资大师伯顿·马尔基尔有一个很著名的理论：让一只蒙着眼睛的猴子用掷飞镖的
方式挑选股票，结果可能也跟专业人士挑的一样好。近日，英国《观察家报》一次为期
一年的“炒股比赛”证实了马尔基尔的观点：一只小猫“挑选”的股票全年盈利超过了
一组投资专家以及一群小学生。
据《广州日报》引述《观察家报》报道，该报在去年进行了一项实验，由三位资深投资
经理、一群小学生和一只名叫奥兰多的黄色虎斑猫比赛炒股，一年下来谁的股票盈利最
大者胜出。
根据比赛规则，在2012年初，参赛三方各获得5000英镑作为投资本金，自行挑选在英国
股市上市的五只股票投资，每隔三个月可以自由进行股票买卖。
投资经理团队和小学生团队根据自己的专业知识、经验和感觉来挑股票，而小猫奥兰多
则有自己独特的“挑选”股票方法：工作人员把一组数字模型摆在它面前，看它把自己
心爱的玩具老鼠丢在哪些数字上，这些数字最终组成股票代码，工作人员就代为购买哪
只股票。
2012年12月31日的最终统计结果显示，小猫奥兰多所挑选的股票总值为5542英镑，位列
冠军！
投资经理团队所持股票总值为5176英镑，位居第二，小学生团队表现最糟糕，股票价值
缩水至4840英镑。
据报道，在2012年第三个季度，专家团队的股票利润为497英镑，小猫奥兰多只有292英
镑。但是到了第四季度，奥兰多上演大翻盘，及时“抛掉”一只“垃圾股”，到年底股
票价值涨到5542.6英镑，全年平均增长率为4.2%。而专家团队在第三季度末不愿意抛弃
一只走势不佳的股票，最终落败。
随机或不输精挑细选
据悉，为了给奥兰多庆功，奥兰多的主人、英国前《现金》杂志编辑吉尔·英思利特地
给它买了一只漂亮的红色项圈。
英国《观察家报》报道指出，这项实验结果说明，伯顿·马尔基尔提出的“漫步假说”
(任意选择一类股票投资的平均收益率高于其他投资的假设)不无道理。换句话说，有时
候，随机选几只股票，利润有可能超过依靠专业知识和经验所挑选的股票。

m*x2013-01-18 08:01

2 楼

这个报道怎么原封不动就贴了，坑王偷懒！

S*g2013-01-18 08:01

3 楼

Stock-Picking Cat Named Orlando Trounces Investment 'Professionals'
What do cats and monkeys have in common, besides being adorable and often
hilarious? They can both pick stocks better than investment professionals,
and also Jim Cramer.
A ginger tabby named Orlando beat a team of investment professionals and a
group of students in a year-long stock-picking experiment conducted by the
British paper The Observer. Orlando picked his stocks by throwing a toy
mouse at a grid of companies, while his human opponents possibly used
methods involving "research" and "thinking."
At the end of the year, Orlando's picks had returned nearly 11 percent,
while the pros had gained just 3.5 percent. The students lost money on the
year. (In comparison, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index rose 13 percent
last year; they all would have been better off just buying an index fund.)
Orlando joins a long list of famous stock-picking animals that have made
stock-picking humans look ridiculous through the years. They include Adam
Monk, the cinnamon-ringtail monkey who successfully picked stocks by
circling their ticker symbols in the newspaper, beating the market and
shouty CNBC personality Jim Cramer.
Then there's Lusha the Russian circus chimpanzee, who reportedly beat 94
percent of Russian investment managers one year by picking cubes with
company names.
And then there is what may be the ur-investing-monkey, Raven the chimp, who
threw 10 darts at a wall full of internet stocks and picked 10 winners. It
was the time of the dot-com bubble, to be sure, but Raven's performance
allegedly placed her 22nd among more than 6,000 Wall Street pros that year.
These experiments highlight a sad truth on Wall Street that nobody seems to
believe: Not even the professionals know what they're doing, really. Picking
stocks is as random as flipping coins or throwing toy mice or your feces at
company names. Even the monkeys lose sometimes -- though even a losing
monkey can still be better, and often funnier, than Jim Cramer.
The great thing about letting a cat pick your stocks for you is the low fees
, mainly consisting of cans of Fancy Feast, some kitty litter and maybe one
of those nice scratching posts. Way, way cheaper than the typical hedge-fund
take of two percent of assets and 20 percent of profits, fees they almost
never deserve. And can a hedge fund do this?

【在 m**x 的大作中提到】