【在 a******e 的大作中提到】 : Why not Paris, why not New York, why only Tokyo? : 东京的房产跌是因为核心竞争力的流失, : 如果代工厂全部搬出中国,制造业大滑坡,那中国泡沫破是一定的, : 现在劳动生产率还在提高,制造业升级还在挣扎,就还有些日子呢
Population密度而言,日本远超中国。日本东京以北基本上没有大城市,所有人都向东 京集中。 Yes,as long as ... 这个前提就是错的,人们不见得会去北上广。你应该去living版考古,看看2007年前大 家对房价的预言。一般一个泡沫的过程是这样的, 1。某种原因价格上升 2。怀疑声音出现,很多人认为升的不合理 3。价格继续上升,但是认为上升不合理的人“亏了”,怀疑声音变弱, 4。所有人都狂热,价格疯狂上升。 5。某种原因突然破裂,价格狂降。 看到版上目前的言论,我感觉进入阶段4了
【在 K******S 的大作中提到】 : population? jobs? different hardware such as electricity/water supply/ etc : between cities and rural areas? : as long as more ppl are coming to 北上广.....
not 密度, populations in 北上广 is still increasing 人们不见得会去北上广 not really, for jobs, 北上广 are still attractive for young ppl. real estate market in US is a totally different story.
why 出手? unless new laws to collect property tax or rent decreases significantly. One of my "4 big cow ppl" doesn't need to work in BJ just because she's got 2 apt for rent (from her parents) and 1 BJ car license plate to rent (together with a small old car, 2-300 rmb per day). New car plate lottery rate in BJ is almost 1 in 100 now.
【在 K******S 的大作中提到】 : why 出手? unless new laws to collect property tax or rent decreases : significantly. One of my "4 big cow ppl" doesn't need to work in BJ just : because she's got 2 apt for rent (from her parents) and 1 BJ car license : plate to rent (together with a small old car, 2-300 rmb per day). New car : plate lottery rate in BJ is almost 1 in 100 now.