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谁有2012 WileyTest Bank？
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谁有2012 WileyTest Bank？# Accounting - 会计审计
t*s
1 楼
分享一下401K的經驗。從1984年開始，每年max contribution. 其間換過公司，一般
有Pension就不再match, 沒有pension的話，match 都還不錯。即使有pension, 我仍
然 maxed out。現在的淨值是 1989 年的四十倍。期間經過 1987，1999，2008 三次大
跌。尤其是 2008，幾乎只剩一半。 好在三次都沒有出市，最終都回來而且更高。這裡
給年輕人一個bench mark, 你的401K如果現在有100K的話，25年后，可能有4M 或更多。
基本操作就是5個fund; Large Cap Growth, Large Cap Value, Mid Cap, Small
Cap, International 。心血來潮時rebalance一下。沒有買過bond 。
得到幾點心得：
1. 401K是長遠之計，尤其是年輕時，不必為漲跌煩心。
2. 過去30年，每次大漲跌週期大約十年。
3. max out 你的contribution.
4. Time Value of Money 實在說得很對。
大跌時是買進的好時機，尤其是自己另外有投資的话。一個小故事；1987年大跌后，有
個在GE做事的朋友跟我說：我把所有的家當都買了GE股票，從今天起，不再是我替
Jack Welsh 幹活，而是Jack Welsh替我幹活。（Jack Welsh 是當年GE的CEO。）
avatar
h*i
2 楼
不知道哪个好用？想去godaddy注册个域名，然后去google申请个企业邮箱。
大家怎么做的？
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t*t
3 楼
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c*n
5 楼
如果有， 可以Share吗？愿意分担你的Cost。 请站内联系。
谢谢！
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s*u
6 楼
非常感谢楼主分享自己投资 401 K 的经验。 非常有价值的帖子, 收藏在我个人博客
里面了。
不过现在financial industry 里面也有不少像 El-Erian, Bill Gross 这样的大牛一
直在鼓吹所谓的 new normal. 我自己在像楼主学习，打算一直Max out retirement
contribution，也不打算去 time market. 不过估计我们这代应该没楼主那样好的回报
了.

多。

【在 t*******s 的大作中提到】
: 分享一下401K的經驗。從1984年開始，每年max contribution. 其間換過公司，一般
: 有Pension就不再match, 沒有pension的話，match 都還不錯。即使有pension, 我仍
: 然 maxed out。現在的淨值是 1989 年的四十倍。期間經過 1987，1999，2008 三次大
: 跌。尤其是 2008，幾乎只剩一半。 好在三次都沒有出市，最終都回來而且更高。這裡
: 給年輕人一個bench mark, 你的401K如果現在有100K的話，25年后，可能有4M 或更多。
: 基本操作就是5個fund; Large Cap Growth, Large Cap Value, Mid Cap, Small
: Cap, International 。心血來潮時rebalance一下。沒有買過bond 。
: 得到幾點心得：
: 1. 401K是長遠之計，尤其是年輕時，不必為漲跌煩心。
: 2. 過去30年，每次大漲跌週期大約十年。
avatar
s*x
7 楼
Google已经没有免费的了，去申请微软outlook的吧，或者国内的QQ企业邮箱也行。
Godaddy的邮箱，太垃圾了
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c*1
8 楼
哇，当初就是听了这首歌，我觉得他一定会拿冠军的啊。
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S*M
9 楼
天，这工作量太大了，三十来张扫出来再数码合成
我怀疑他直接用5D2拍能省不少麻烦
不如那个大幅拍夜景的impressive

【在 a*f 的大作中提到】
: 虽然一向不喜欢hdr,不过这个film hdr有点意思.
: http://www.flickr.com/photos/planckstudios/
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a*s
10 楼
同意，好时候不多了
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h*i
11 楼
不知道哪个好用？想去godaddy注册个域名，然后去google申请个企业邮箱。
大家怎么做的？
avatar
c*1
12 楼
你到底是不是楚生啊？
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a*f
13 楼
5D2的拍的人太多了.
胶片出来的还是胶片的色彩+HDR比较少见.

【在 S*M 的大作中提到】
: 天，这工作量太大了，三十来张扫出来再数码合成
: 我怀疑他直接用5D2拍能省不少麻烦
: 不如那个大幅拍夜景的impressive
avatar
M*r
14 楼
Buy and hold 还有比这个更有说服力的例子吗？太佩服了。
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s*x
15 楼
Google已经没有免费的了，去申请微软outlook的吧，或者国内的QQ企业邮箱也行。
Godaddy的邮箱，太垃圾了
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q*5
16 楼
偶像。。。
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a*p
17 楼
nice. thanks for sharing.

多。

【在 t*******s 的大作中提到】
: 分享一下401K的經驗。從1984年開始，每年max contribution. 其間換過公司，一般
: 有Pension就不再match, 沒有pension的話，match 都還不錯。即使有pension, 我仍
: 然 maxed out。現在的淨值是 1989 年的四十倍。期間經過 1987，1999，2008 三次大
: 跌。尤其是 2008，幾乎只剩一半。 好在三次都沒有出市，最終都回來而且更高。這裡
: 給年輕人一個bench mark, 你的401K如果現在有100K的話，25年后，可能有4M 或更多。
: 基本操作就是5個fund; Large Cap Growth, Large Cap Value, Mid Cap, Small
: Cap, International 。心血來潮時rebalance一下。沒有買過bond 。
: 得到幾點心得：
: 1. 401K是長遠之計，尤其是年輕時，不必為漲跌煩心。
: 2. 過去30年，每次大漲跌週期大約十年。
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m*u
18 楼
Rackspace的不错，比较便宜，5个油箱10刀每月
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s*x
19 楼
如果是的话，普通话可是进步了不少啊

【在 c**********1 的大作中提到】
: 你到底是不是楚生啊？
avatar
a*p
20 楼
看来我以前的想法是对的：401k里没有必要搞bond.

多。

【在 t*******s 的大作中提到】
: 分享一下401K的經驗。從1984年開始，每年max contribution. 其間換過公司，一般
: 有Pension就不再match, 沒有pension的話，match 都還不錯。即使有pension, 我仍
: 然 maxed out。現在的淨值是 1989 年的四十倍。期間經過 1987，1999，2008 三次大
: 跌。尤其是 2008，幾乎只剩一半。 好在三次都沒有出市，最終都回來而且更高。這裡
: 給年輕人一個bench mark, 你的401K如果現在有100K的話，25年后，可能有4M 或更多。
: 基本操作就是5個fund; Large Cap Growth, Large Cap Value, Mid Cap, Small
: Cap, International 。心血來潮時rebalance一下。沒有買過bond 。
: 得到幾點心得：
: 1. 401K是長遠之計，尤其是年輕時，不必為漲跌煩心。
: 2. 過去30年，每次大漲跌週期大約十年。
avatar
d*n
21 楼
rackspace信箱不错，可是网站hosting很贵。能不能分开在两家公司？

★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.8

【在 m**u 的大作中提到】
: Rackspace的不错，比较便宜，5个油箱10刀每月
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t*t
22 楼
2楼真夸张呀。。。
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g*i
23 楼
为什么不买bond呢?就像08年时候,都知道大跌了,又不是一两天的大跌.这时候换成bond
避难一段时间,至少能少损失点吧.

多。

【在 t*******s 的大作中提到】
: 分享一下401K的經驗。從1984年開始，每年max contribution. 其間換過公司，一般
: 有Pension就不再match, 沒有pension的話，match 都還不錯。即使有pension, 我仍
: 然 maxed out。現在的淨值是 1989 年的四十倍。期間經過 1987，1999，2008 三次大
: 跌。尤其是 2008，幾乎只剩一半。 好在三次都沒有出市，最終都回來而且更高。這裡
: 給年輕人一個bench mark, 你的401K如果現在有100K的話，25年后，可能有4M 或更多。
: 基本操作就是5個fund; Large Cap Growth, Large Cap Value, Mid Cap, Small
: Cap, International 。心血來潮時rebalance一下。沒有買過bond 。
: 得到幾點心得：
: 1. 401K是長遠之計，尤其是年輕時，不必為漲跌煩心。
: 2. 過去30年，每次大漲跌週期大約十年。
avatar
s*7
24 楼
嘿嘿 可以写中文了 比较方便
哈哈 我来瞎说几句 说得不对 别往心里去
这首歌 我可喜欢勒阿
真高兴版上出现得好声音越来越多
你的声音真好听 不是恭维你 非常的有感染力
但是这首歌 比起之前的 原来的我 我更喜欢那一首
你唱原来的我的时候 声音和状态都很松弛 感觉恰到好处 也非常适合那首歌
但是这首歌 我觉得你唱得很好听
但没有抓到它的韵律
它的节奏感很强 你却唱得拖沓了点
而且感觉你的声音有些紧 高音拽了一些 感觉你的气息僵在里面 没有出来
而且录音状态可能比较紧张 有些音飘走了
总体觉得如果你放松一些 再投入一些 奔放些 就好了
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d*o
25 楼
He works for GE and bought all he had on GE stocks? Highly risky move, not
recommended.

個在GE做事的朋友跟我說：我把所有的家當都買了GE股票，從今天起，不再是我替
Jack Welsh 幹活，而是Jack Welsh替我幹活。（Jack Welsh 是當年GE的CEO。）

【在 t*******s 的大作中提到】
: 分享一下401K的經驗。從1984年開始，每年max contribution. 其間換過公司，一般
: 有Pension就不再match, 沒有pension的話，match 都還不錯。即使有pension, 我仍
: 然 maxed out。現在的淨值是 1989 年的四十倍。期間經過 1987，1999，2008 三次大
: 跌。尤其是 2008，幾乎只剩一半。 好在三次都沒有出市，最終都回來而且更高。這裡
: 給年輕人一個bench mark, 你的401K如果現在有100K的話，25年后，可能有4M 或更多。
: 基本操作就是5個fund; Large Cap Growth, Large Cap Value, Mid Cap, Small
: Cap, International 。心血來潮時rebalance一下。沒有買過bond 。
: 得到幾點心得：
: 1. 401K是長遠之計，尤其是年輕時，不必為漲跌煩心。
: 2. 過去30年，每次大漲跌週期大約十年。
avatar
x*i
26 楼
俺承认，俺对这样的自弹自唱真的缺乏免疫力。。。
sail的耳朵太厉害，说的一些问题我都没察觉到。
我只听到最后有一两个音稍微飘了一点点，有一个高音稍微紧了一点点。不过自弹自唱
太加分了，我觉得完全可以忽略。嘎嘎~~
很奔放，细腻，率性，很打动我。听了两遍，除了喜欢还是喜欢。
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y*i
27 楼
30 year bond interest rate was 12-14% in 1980s. 1.13^30 = 40x 100,000 = 4M.
You can have the same return as OP with no risk at all.

【在 a*p 的大作中提到】
: 看来我以前的想法是对的：401k里没有必要搞bond.
:
: 多。
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t*t
28 楼
专业啊。。。
是！ 我以后尽量改！
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a*p
29 楼
Bond does not work that way.

.

【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: 30 year bond interest rate was 12-14% in 1980s. 1.13^30 = 40x 100,000 = 4M.
: You can have the same return as OP with no risk at all.
avatar
m*t
30 楼
偶像，你去了就没小生生的事了。四月有海选，请速去。

【在 t*****t 的大作中提到】
: 专业啊。。。
: 是！ 我以后尽量改！
avatar
k*e
31 楼
能否share一下annual return？

多。

【在 t*******s 的大作中提到】
: 分享一下401K的經驗。從1984年開始，每年max contribution. 其間換過公司，一般
: 有Pension就不再match, 沒有pension的話，match 都還不錯。即使有pension, 我仍
: 然 maxed out。現在的淨值是 1989 年的四十倍。期間經過 1987，1999，2008 三次大
: 跌。尤其是 2008，幾乎只剩一半。 好在三次都沒有出市，最終都回來而且更高。這裡
: 給年輕人一個bench mark, 你的401K如果現在有100K的話，25年后，可能有4M 或更多。
: 基本操作就是5個fund; Large Cap Growth, Large Cap Value, Mid Cap, Small
: Cap, International 。心血來潮時rebalance一下。沒有買過bond 。
: 得到幾點心得：
: 1. 401K是長遠之計，尤其是年輕時，不必為漲跌煩心。
: 2. 過去30年，每次大漲跌週期大約十年。
avatar
m*a
32 楼
那打印机谁照顾呢？O(∩_∩)O哈！

【在 m******t 的大作中提到】
: 偶像，你去了就没小生生的事了。四月有海选，请速去。
avatar
s*8
33 楼
bond显示的利息是单利，不是复利。0.13*30+1=4.9。

.

【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: 30 year bond interest rate was 12-14% in 1980s. 1.13^30 = 40x 100,000 = 4M.
: You can have the same return as OP with no risk at all.
avatar
q*5
34 楼
打印机是什么典故

【在 m******a 的大作中提到】
: 那打印机谁照顾呢？O(∩_∩)O哈！
avatar
i*o
35 楼
40^0.04 - 1 = 15.9%
大牛一头

【在 k***e 的大作中提到】
: 能否share一下annual return？
:
: 多。
avatar
h*e
36 楼
haha,
thought that u knew every dg. :-)

【在 q*****5 的大作中提到】
: 打印机是什么典故
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s*8
37 楼
我估计LZ在international回报比较高。
1989到2014，large/middle/small cap的total return (包括dividend reinvestment)
在9%-10%.还不包括管理费。所以平均一年16%的return非常惊人。international的数
据查不到，所以不知道LZ的回报是多少。
除非LZ把1989后每年的401 contribution也算到这个40倍里去了。
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I*y
38 楼
赞演唱！音色很好听！
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S*C
39 楼
Have you considered annual contribution?

【在 i**********o 的大作中提到】
: 40^0.04 - 1 = 15.9%
: 大牛一头
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t*t
40 楼
OK,思刀普。
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y*i
41 楼
Yes, bond or bond fund performance is not bad at all if you compare the
right one.
MXLMX Great-West Loomis Sayles Bond
11/1/1994-5/12/2014, 6.2x, I couldn't find data before 1994.
VFINX Vanguard 500 Index Inv
11/1/1994-5/12/2014, 5.7x,
8/31/1989-5/12/2014, 8.9x.
CUSIP 452221BV5
Federally Taxable NO
Subject to Alternative Minimum Tax NO
Price 83.529
Interest Accrual Date 04/24/1990
Maturity Date 12/15/2019
Insurer AMBAC
Initial Offering Price/Yield: 11.603
04/24/1990-5/12/2014, 7.2x.
Don't forget 1980s and 1990s bull market were supported by Regan and Clinton
or internet, after 2000 it was completely driven by the low interest rate,
real estate and international market.
In history, there's no 0 interest rate for more than six years. The bubble
can last longer than most people though, but eventually it will hurt long
term growth rate and middle class. We may see a crisis more severe than 2008
-2009 or the growth will be sub par for decades.
OP did a great job not only because of him, the history won't repeat itself.
You may copy the 401k as OP but in the end will find completely different
return after another 30 years.

reinvestment)

【在 s******8 的大作中提到】
: 我估计LZ在international回报比较高。
: 1989到2014，large/middle/small cap的total return (包括dividend reinvestment)
: 在9%-10%.还不包括管理费。所以平均一年16%的return非常惊人。international的数
: 据查不到，所以不知道LZ的回报是多少。
: 除非LZ把1989后每年的401 contribution也算到这个40倍里去了。
avatar
k*e
42 楼
每年都max contribution呢，没这么简单。

【在 i**********o 的大作中提到】
: 40^0.04 - 1 = 15.9%
: 大牛一头
avatar
S*C
43 楼
The max contribution from 1989-2014 is 310K, that is 25 years. Adding
company contribution, you get somewhere near 400K, which is far less than 2M
. It is fine to have a negative view on stock market, it is another thing to
spew out misinformation.
avatar
S*C
44 楼
A quick back test with $100K invested in SP500 from 01/01/1989 to now give
you $688,914.31, a 60% VFINX and 40% VBMFX, and use 5% asset rebalance rule,
end up with $923,646.21, that is significant out-performance, with lower
volatility.

【在 a*p 的大作中提到】
: 看来我以前的想法是对的：401k里没有必要搞bond.
:
: 多。
avatar
D*2
45 楼
你这个test怎么做的? 网上有现成网站可以test吗?还是自己写code?

rule,

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: A quick back test with $100K invested in SP500 from 01/01/1989 to now give
: you $688,914.31, a 60% VFINX and 40% VBMFX, and use 5% asset rebalance rule,
: end up with $923,646.21, that is significant out-performance, with lower
: volatility.
avatar
S*C
46 楼
Actually yearly rebalance is a little better, end up with $930,435.58.

rule,

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: A quick back test with $100K invested in SP500 from 01/01/1989 to now give
: you $688,914.31, a 60% VFINX and 40% VBMFX, and use 5% asset rebalance rule,
: end up with $923,646.21, that is significant out-performance, with lower
: volatility.
avatar
S*C
47 楼
EzBackTest
http://ezbacktest.blogspot.com/

【在 D********2 的大作中提到】
: 你这个test怎么做的? 网上有现成网站可以test吗?还是自己写code?
:
: rule,
avatar
E*w
48 楼
Check the S&P 500 index history. On 1/1/1989, S&P was about 270, Today, S&P
was about 1900.It is about 8.5 times the value of 1989. Now, with total
contribution less than 400K, how can you get 4M in total (10 times 400K)? If
not all 400K were bought on 1/1/1989, I guess the return rate should be
divided by about 2, right? That is about 2M in total value.
I accept that my number is way lower than it should be. I don't accept this
kind of "buy and hold" policy because it is a lifetime gamble, and you only
get to do it once. There are people who got rich by buying lottery tickets.
But good luck if you want to try that as well.

2M
to

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: The max contribution from 1989-2014 is 310K, that is 25 years. Adding
: company contribution, you get somewhere near 400K, which is far less than 2M
: . It is fine to have a negative view on stock market, it is another thing to
: spew out misinformation.
avatar
M*r
49 楼
你能加上contrinution and company match 再back test 看这25年能有多少？这其实
是个很有意义的估算，让大家知道max contribution + investing (100% stock or 60
/40 最后是什么结果。
LZ的例子其实最值得我们学的， 不是他投资了什么，investment return是多少，这都
不重要，他投的都是company的plan, 100% equity,没有什么特别的。重要的是这位大
哥的discipline and perseverance, 即使在大跌的时候还一如既往地investing, 这是
绝大部分的人都做不到的。

rule,

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: A quick back test with $100K invested in SP500 from 01/01/1989 to now give
: you $688,914.31, a 60% VFINX and 40% VBMFX, and use 5% asset rebalance rule,
: end up with $923,646.21, that is significant out-performance, with lower
: volatility.
avatar
p*4
50 楼
谢谢lz分享心得。
我斗胆问一句，假设lz把三十年投在Large Cap Growth, Large Cap Value, Mid Cap
, 和Small Cap上的钱，全投在其中一样fund（say, small cap)或S&P 500 Index，收
益率会是怎样的。lz有没有算过？
avatar
E*w
51 楼
我删除了原文。对错误的数据分析表示道歉。
他的回报率确实可能不低，但是应该是小于10倍的。我有一个很老的同事，账户上有3M
，而他对投资一无所知。我承认Buy and hold的策略对现在70多岁的这一代人很有效。
但是，看看道琼斯100年的历史，能赶上80~00年的大牛市的机会并不大。自从那个牛市
出现以后，金融界无数的人推销"buy and hold"的策略，而且mutual fund的收费也越
来越隐形。这些都是事后诸葛亮用来忽悠人的推销手法。谁也不能保证美国未来能再出
现这样一个大牛市。
当然，有人愿意用一生的时间去赌一个信念。这个是个人的选择。我只是没法接受这种
生死赌博。我觉得它和买六合彩没有什么两样。

【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: 你能加上contrinution and company match 再back test 看这25年能有多少？这其实
: 是个很有意义的估算，让大家知道max contribution + investing (100% stock or 60
: /40 最后是什么结果。
: LZ的例子其实最值得我们学的， 不是他投资了什么，investment return是多少，这都
: 不重要，他投的都是company的plan, 100% equity,没有什么特别的。重要的是这位大
: 哥的discipline and perseverance, 即使在大跌的时候还一如既往地investing, 这是
: 绝大部分的人都做不到的。
:
: rule,
avatar
S*C
52 楼
Sorry, S&P 500 index in the programe does not include dividend. If you use
100% VFINX, you get $1,009,389.40 now, a little ahead of 60/40.

rule,

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: A quick back test with $100K invested in SP500 from 01/01/1989 to now give
: you $688,914.31, a 60% VFINX and 40% VBMFX, and use 5% asset rebalance rule,
: end up with $923,646.21, that is significant out-performance, with lower
: volatility.
avatar
S*C
54 楼
The programe does not allow rebalancing in DCA back test.
If start with $100K in May 1989 and DCA $1K per month in VFINX, you end up
with $2MM now, and if you DCA 60/40 without rebalancing, you end up with $1.
66MM now.
I think $4MM is a little hard. start with $100K, DCA $1K per month in VFINX
from May 1989 to now get $3MM.

60

【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: 你能加上contrinution and company match 再back test 看这25年能有多少？这其实
: 是个很有意义的估算，让大家知道max contribution + investing (100% stock or 60
: /40 最后是什么结果。
: LZ的例子其实最值得我们学的， 不是他投资了什么，investment return是多少，这都
: 不重要，他投的都是company的plan, 100% equity,没有什么特别的。重要的是这位大
: 哥的discipline and perseverance, 即使在大跌的时候还一如既往地investing, 这是
: 绝大部分的人都做不到的。
:
: rule,
avatar
M*r
55 楼
其实我也不是很赞成LZ这样100%equity的buy and hold, 风险真的很大，尤其是08年那
次，已经离退休年纪比较接近了，被砍掉50%，很可怕。我赞成用一个balanced
portfolio (比如70/30， 60/40）buy and hold. 今后三十年，会怎样，没人知道，怕
就怕变成日本那样，低利率，defaltion, stock market going nowhere, 这就更需要
一个broadly diversified portfolio, 包括gold， commodity, REITs, currency

3M

【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: 我删除了原文。对错误的数据分析表示道歉。
: 他的回报率确实可能不低，但是应该是小于10倍的。我有一个很老的同事，账户上有3M
: ，而他对投资一无所知。我承认Buy and hold的策略对现在70多岁的这一代人很有效。
: 但是，看看道琼斯100年的历史，能赶上80~00年的大牛市的机会并不大。自从那个牛市
: 出现以后，金融界无数的人推销"buy and hold"的策略，而且mutual fund的收费也越
: 来越隐形。这些都是事后诸葛亮用来忽悠人的推销手法。谁也不能保证美国未来能再出
: 现这样一个大牛市。
: 当然，有人愿意用一生的时间去赌一个信念。这个是个人的选择。我只是没法接受这种
: 生死赌博。我觉得它和买六合彩没有什么两样。
avatar
S*C
56 楼
The historical US stock market return from 1928 to 2013 is 9.55% annualized,
the last 25 year annualized return is 10.17%, so it is a bit higher than
historical average for the last 25 years, but not that higher as you make it
out to be.
In terms of buy and hold, the gap between aggregated investors return and S&
P 500 return is about 6-7%, the investor behavior is far more important than
anything from choosing active vs. passive funds, high ER vs. low ER etc.

3M

【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: 我删除了原文。对错误的数据分析表示道歉。
: 他的回报率确实可能不低，但是应该是小于10倍的。我有一个很老的同事，账户上有3M
: ，而他对投资一无所知。我承认Buy and hold的策略对现在70多岁的这一代人很有效。
: 但是，看看道琼斯100年的历史，能赶上80~00年的大牛市的机会并不大。自从那个牛市
: 出现以后，金融界无数的人推销"buy and hold"的策略，而且mutual fund的收费也越
: 来越隐形。这些都是事后诸葛亮用来忽悠人的推销手法。谁也不能保证美国未来能再出
: 现这样一个大牛市。
: 当然，有人愿意用一生的时间去赌一个信念。这个是个人的选择。我只是没法接受这种
: 生死赌博。我觉得它和买六合彩没有什么两样。
avatar
E*w
57 楼
我的观点很简单。很多人每天上班8小时至少有4小时是在做自己并不喜欢，但是为了钱
不得不做的事情。赚钱是很不容易的。投资是用钱赚钱，也绝对不是件容易的事情。以
为不花功夫学习，单靠一两个别人告诉你的原则，就可以赚出很多钱，这是很天真的想
法。多半情况，成功了是因为运气好而已。和赌博没有本质区别。那些去赌场，买彩票
，贩毒，抢银行的，也都有成功致富的。只是“投资”的故事更有迷惑性而已，其实和
那些冒险的行当没有区别。想想你为了找到现在的工作花了多少精力和汗水吧。

【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: 其实我也不是很赞成LZ这样100%equity的buy and hold, 风险真的很大，尤其是08年那
: 次，已经离退休年纪比较接近了，被砍掉50%，很可怕。我赞成用一个balanced
: portfolio (比如70/30， 60/40）buy and hold. 今后三十年，会怎样，没人知道，怕
: 就怕变成日本那样，低利率，defaltion, stock market going nowhere, 这就更需要
: 一个broadly diversified portfolio, 包括gold， commodity, REITs, currency
:
: 3M
avatar
S*C
58 楼
My opinion is simple as well. Investors themselves are their own worst enemy
, they on aggregate will sell low and buy high, it will never change, it is
hard-coded in our DNA.

【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: 我的观点很简单。很多人每天上班8小时至少有4小时是在做自己并不喜欢，但是为了钱
: 不得不做的事情。赚钱是很不容易的。投资是用钱赚钱，也绝对不是件容易的事情。以
: 为不花功夫学习，单靠一两个别人告诉你的原则，就可以赚出很多钱，这是很天真的想
: 法。多半情况，成功了是因为运气好而已。和赌博没有本质区别。那些去赌场，买彩票
: ，贩毒，抢银行的，也都有成功致富的。只是“投资”的故事更有迷惑性而已，其实和
: 那些冒险的行当没有区别。想想你为了找到现在的工作花了多少精力和汗水吧。
avatar
E*w
59 楼
I am not here to convince you. I simple do not follow a "principle" that I
do not understand. Maybe you understand what "buy and hold" actually means,
I don't.

enemy
is

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: My opinion is simple as well. Investors themselves are their own worst enemy
: , they on aggregate will sell low and buy high, it will never change, it is
: hard-coded in our DNA.
avatar
S*C
60 楼
I am here to share some data regarding investors behavior and its
consequences, which is a big gap between investor returns and funds returns,
and it can only be explained by investors on aggregate bail out at the
market trough and pile up near the market peak. Too bad.
There are certainly someone with the skill and/or luck, if a retail investor
believe he has that, good luck. I figure it is easier for me to find
someone with the skill in certain area, and I figure smart people won't
suddenly become dumb.
avatar
E*w
61 楼
Well, everyone should do what he/she believe is good, and be responsible for
its consequence.

returns,
investor

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: I am here to share some data regarding investors behavior and its
: consequences, which is a big gap between investor returns and funds returns,
: and it can only be explained by investors on aggregate bail out at the
: market trough and pile up near the market peak. Too bad.
: There are certainly someone with the skill and/or luck, if a retail investor
: believe he has that, good luck. I figure it is easier for me to find
: someone with the skill in certain area, and I figure smart people won't
: suddenly become dumb.
avatar
S*C
62 楼
E., I guess when you make certain strong claims that are against the
prevailing views (e.g., B&H only works from 1980-2000, mutual funds
typically charge 2-3% hidden fees), we are looking for some data support.
Not to say the claims are necessarily wrong, but I guess the participants in
this forum will benefit if such claims come with some solid data.
avatar
E*w
63 楼
I always back my claims with data.
For the two examples you give. 1. Just look at the 100 year history of Dow,
and tell me whether you can find another period of time where Dow rose as in
80~00. 2. Compare the curves of Fidelity selected gold fund FSAGX and the
gold miner index fund GDX, you can easily see where the hidden fees come
from.
Of course, you won't support my view if you do not want to understand how
Wall Street guys make money. Financial world changed significantly in the
past decades. Many new products and new regulations have been introduced.
Status of the world economy and world politics are changing rapidly. Our tax
codes have been changing as well. I feel surprised that one can easily
believe making money from the stock market does not require a careful study
of any of these things.
Anyway, I expressed my opinion. For those who do not want to make a little
bit more effort to learn things, they will not understand my point anyway.
Just as I said that no one needs Roth IRA. If you do not want to study the
tax code, you will never be able to understand why.

in

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: E., I guess when you make certain strong claims that are against the
: prevailing views (e.g., B&H only works from 1980-2000, mutual funds
: typically charge 2-3% hidden fees), we are looking for some data support.
: Not to say the claims are necessarily wrong, but I guess the participants in
: this forum will benefit if such claims come with some solid data.
avatar
M*r
64 楼
You should read the DALBAR report that I cited in another post
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Investment/31289839.html
Investor behavior is the single most important factor that determines
investment returns. When it comes to investing, average Joe simply does what
is unthinkable. that is buy high and sell low. How does one avoid this
mistake? Buy and Hold, Don't trade, don't time the market. Do what LZ has
been doing: invest with discipline.

【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: 我的观点很简单。很多人每天上班8小时至少有4小时是在做自己并不喜欢，但是为了钱
: 不得不做的事情。赚钱是很不容易的。投资是用钱赚钱，也绝对不是件容易的事情。以
: 为不花功夫学习，单靠一两个别人告诉你的原则，就可以赚出很多钱，这是很天真的想
: 法。多半情况，成功了是因为运气好而已。和赌博没有本质区别。那些去赌场，买彩票
: ，贩毒，抢银行的，也都有成功致富的。只是“投资”的故事更有迷惑性而已，其实和
: 那些冒险的行当没有区别。想想你为了找到现在的工作花了多少精力和汗水吧。
avatar
E*w
65 楼
Average Joe tends to follow other people's advise. My discipline is that,
when it comes to money, I never do things that I do not understand. If I
want to find out the best way, I spend time to learn it and understand it.
You believe "buy and hold" is a better discipline than this?

what

【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: You should read the DALBAR report that I cited in another post
: http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Investment/31289839.html
: Investor behavior is the single most important factor that determines
: investment returns. When it comes to investing, average Joe simply does what
: is unthinkable. that is buy high and sell low. How does one avoid this
: mistake? Buy and Hold, Don't trade, don't time the market. Do what LZ has
: been doing: invest with discipline.
avatar
M*r
66 楼
There is a difference in terms of performance btw FSAGX and GDX. This is
because: 1. FSAGX is an actively managed fund and GDX is an index. The
performance difference could be because of the security selection bias
caused by FSAGX. In another word, they are simply not very good. 2. FSAGX
has an ER of 0.9%, which is clealy listed in the prospectus. GDX is abot 0.5
%. 3. FSAGX can hold real gold, GDX can not.
These explain the peformance difference. There is no hidden fee as you
claimed. Mutual fund busines is highly regulated. Funds are all audited. Its
simply impossible to hide fees. You can say one fund has higher fee than
others. But it's rediculous to say that one fun's underperformance is due to
hidden fees.

,
in
tax

【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: I always back my claims with data.
: For the two examples you give. 1. Just look at the 100 year history of Dow,
: and tell me whether you can find another period of time where Dow rose as in
: 80~00. 2. Compare the curves of Fidelity selected gold fund FSAGX and the
: gold miner index fund GDX, you can easily see where the hidden fees come
: from.
: Of course, you won't support my view if you do not want to understand how
: Wall Street guys make money. Financial world changed significantly in the
: past decades. Many new products and new regulations have been introduced.
: Status of the world economy and world politics are changing rapidly. Our tax
avatar
h*g
67 楼
Can you elaborate on why "no one needs Roth IRA"?
avatar
E*w
68 楼
That is your point of view. I got it.
But I noticed the fact that I am not allowed to buy GDX in my 401K plan.
Fidelity is the only one that offers fancy options like FSAGX. All these
options underperform the corresponding index fund significantly, and I am
not allowed to buy those index funds.
I believe I have to understand why this is the case.

.5
Its
to

【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: There is a difference in terms of performance btw FSAGX and GDX. This is
: because: 1. FSAGX is an actively managed fund and GDX is an index. The
: performance difference could be because of the security selection bias
: caused by FSAGX. In another word, they are simply not very good. 2. FSAGX
: has an ER of 0.9%, which is clealy listed in the prospectus. GDX is abot 0.5
: %. 3. FSAGX can hold real gold, GDX can not.
: These explain the peformance difference. There is no hidden fee as you
: claimed. Mutual fund busines is highly regulated. Funds are all audited. Its
: simply impossible to hide fees. You can say one fund has higher fee than
: others. But it's rediculous to say that one fun's underperformance is due to
avatar
M*r
69 楼
You can spend as much time as you want and learn as much as you want. This
simply does not guarantee you perform better.
Buy and hold is the easiest way to resist temptation and requires discipline
. The key of buy and hold is to make as few decision as possible. The more
decision you make, the more likely you will make mistakes.

【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: Average Joe tends to follow other people's advise. My discipline is that,
: when it comes to money, I never do things that I do not understand. If I
: want to find out the best way, I spend time to learn it and understand it.
: You believe "buy and hold" is a better discipline than this?
:
: what
avatar
E*w
70 楼
And you believe average Joe can never learn this simple point?

discipline

【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: You can spend as much time as you want and learn as much as you want. This
: simply does not guarantee you perform better.
: Buy and hold is the easiest way to resist temptation and requires discipline
: . The key of buy and hold is to make as few decision as possible. The more
: decision you make, the more likely you will make mistakes.
avatar
M*r
71 楼
what investment options is available to you in your 401K is decided by your
employer. They negotiated with Fido. Fido provided them a plan with certain
investment options and certain fee structure. Of course, Fidelity wants you
to buy their product, not GDX. If you strongly feel you should have access
to certain product, you should make it clear to your management. But there
is no conspiracy, no hidden fees.

【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: That is your point of view. I got it.
: But I noticed the fact that I am not allowed to buy GDX in my 401K plan.
: Fidelity is the only one that offers fancy options like FSAGX. All these
: options underperform the corresponding index fund significantly, and I am
: not allowed to buy those index funds.
: I believe I have to understand why this is the case.
:
: .5
: Its
: to
avatar
S*C
72 楼
FSAGX outperform GDX over the life of GDX, it charges 0.91%, so my question
to you is where is the 2-3% hidden fees?
Regarding the first example, you changed topic. A realistic person would
expect to have 6-7% annualized real return over long period of time, and US
stock market provided just that and a B&H investor would likely achieve just
that. The time frame you are referring to had 17-18% nominal and are about
2x of annualized long term real return, which is a historical aberration (
and as such it reverted to the mean, how surprising!). If your claim is in
order to B&H & achieve 13-14% real return over long period of time, yeah,
probably the B&H investor need to relive 80's-00 then switch to fixed income
at the right time. I guess your definition of "work" is 13-14% annualized
real return? IMO the expectation is a bit too high, and I figure if I can
get anything close to the long-term US real return, I'd be very happy and
have a very nice retirement, and I guess many people will
be in the same boat as me.

,
in
tax

【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: I always back my claims with data.
: For the two examples you give. 1. Just look at the 100 year history of Dow,
: and tell me whether you can find another period of time where Dow rose as in
: 80~00. 2. Compare the curves of Fidelity selected gold fund FSAGX and the
: gold miner index fund GDX, you can easily see where the hidden fees come
: from.
: Of course, you won't support my view if you do not want to understand how
: Wall Street guys make money. Financial world changed significantly in the
: past decades. Many new products and new regulations have been introduced.
: Status of the world economy and world politics are changing rapidly. Our tax
avatar
E*w
73 楼
Ok, I am done here. You guys enjoy :-)

your
certain
you
access

【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: what investment options is available to you in your 401K is decided by your
: employer. They negotiated with Fido. Fido provided them a plan with certain
: investment options and certain fee structure. Of course, Fidelity wants you
: to buy their product, not GDX. If you strongly feel you should have access
: to certain product, you should make it clear to your management. But there
: is no conspiracy, no hidden fees.
avatar
M*r
74 楼
Now I am really really curious. You are against buy and hold. You don't like
mutual funds because they hide fees. You don't like Roth for wahtever
reason. You don't like your 401K because you are not allowed to buy GDX. So
what is left that you actually like? How do you invest? I really want to
know. I promise I won't judge.

【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: Ok, I am done here. You guys enjoy :-)
:
: your
: certain
: you
: access
avatar
E*w
75 楼
I do not like 401K, but government forces me to put money in 401K. I simply
do not put more money than the mandated amount. Within 401K, I study
Fidelity funds carefully since my 401K is at Fidelity. I do not "buy and
hold", I try to time the market. I know people on this board firmly believe
that no one can time the market. I happen to believe I can learn it,
although it is certainly not easy. For the rest of the money, I put them in
an personal investment account. But I do not touch actively managed mutual
funds. I only use the low cost index funds.
Make sense?

like
So

【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: Now I am really really curious. You are against buy and hold. You don't like
: mutual funds because they hide fees. You don't like Roth for wahtever
: reason. You don't like your 401K because you are not allowed to buy GDX. So
: what is left that you actually like? How do you invest? I really want to
: know. I promise I won't judge.
avatar
M*r
76 楼
you dont have to put any money in your 401k. there is no mandate. and its
not a government program. i am sure you know these, do you? do u trade
individual stock? you can trade individual stocks and buy index funds in
roth or traditional ira . that is your right. why donu want to fofeit your
right and invest in taxable account and pay uncle sam? i am not getting it.

simply
believe
in

【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: I do not like 401K, but government forces me to put money in 401K. I simply
: do not put more money than the mandated amount. Within 401K, I study
: Fidelity funds carefully since my 401K is at Fidelity. I do not "buy and
: hold", I try to time the market. I know people on this board firmly believe
: that no one can time the market. I happen to believe I can learn it,
: although it is certainly not easy. For the rest of the money, I put them in
: an personal investment account. But I do not touch actively managed mutual
: funds. I only use the low cost index funds.
: Make sense?
:
avatar
E*w
77 楼
I don't know that I can avoid 401K. If I do not contribute, I do not get the
company match. I guess your company is different?
There is a way to make personal investment return tax-free. Actually, there
is also a very complicated way to move 401K money to a tax-free account.
There is no tax involved in the process whatsoever. It is perfectly legal.
But it is not easy to explain how that works.

【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: you dont have to put any money in your 401k. there is no mandate. and its
: not a government program. i am sure you know these, do you? do u trade
: individual stock? you can trade individual stocks and buy index funds in
: roth or traditional ira . that is your right. why donu want to fofeit your
: right and invest in taxable account and pay uncle sam? i am not getting it.
:
: simply
: believe
: in
avatar
w*n
78 楼
Quite a bit of conspiracy theories...
1. An active fund lagging a certain index doesn't mean that the fund has
hidden fee. I actively trade individual stocks and from time to time I under
-perform the market indexes. I'm glad that my wife doesn't suspect I'm
hiding money from her.
2. I keep hearing from various people that 401K is a government enforced
scheme that grab people's money. How so? First, you can certainly not
contribute a penny, it's your right and it's legal. If you choose to
contribute and put all contributions in money market, you get perhaps ~30%
risk-free return from your employee's match. If you happen to be good at
investing, you'll be doing even better with compounding. How sweet this
scheme is! As for the choices in the 401K and whether you can open brokerage
account in 401K, it's all up to the agreement between you and your employer
; the fee structure in your 401K is all up to the agreement between your
employer and the financial service company. They are all straightforward and
transparent.
avatar
y*i
79 楼
Even two years ago, there's an interesting comparison with stock and bond
past 30 year total return, and bond wins.
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/markets/story/2012-01-04/b
Why are bonds outperforming stocks over long term?
"What's more surprising, though, since it contradicts the widespread belief
that stocks beat bonds, is that the Ibbotson Associates SBBI bond index has
returned 11.03% a year on average over the past 30 years, edging out the 10.
98% return of stocks."
We should thank Fed and all governments to make the biggest bubble in
history. Now the question is which one is more expensive, stock or bond?
For me, Individual bonds may not be a bad choice because the yield is fixed
if you hold it to maturity. At least you can lock the profit now and use the
interest to bet another down turn.
Another question is: do you have enough cash or asset can be liquidized
without much discount to pass the worst case?In 2008-2009, many people
cashed out their 401k not only because they want to, but have to. When you
get layoff and cut spending like food and gas, can you do DCA at that time?

bond

【在 g*****i 的大作中提到】
: 为什么不买bond呢?就像08年时候,都知道大跌了,又不是一两天的大跌.这时候换成bond
: 避难一段时间,至少能少损失点吧.
:
: 多。
avatar
S*C
80 楼
Some real world performance, if one invested $10K in Vanguard Total Bond
Market Index (VBMFX) since 12/11/1986 (which is the earliest data I can find
), he ends up with $55K now; If he instead invested $10K in Vanguard 500
index (VFINX), he ends up with $137K now.
Folks pretend to be smartest in the room tend to skew the reality, but the
real world performance is where the rubber meets the road, and oftentimes,
what you heard is the reality is just an annoying aberration.

belief
has
10.

【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: Even two years ago, there's an interesting comparison with stock and bond
: past 30 year total return, and bond wins.
: http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/markets/story/2012-01-04/b
: Why are bonds outperforming stocks over long term?
: "What's more surprising, though, since it contradicts the widespread belief
: that stocks beat bonds, is that the Ibbotson Associates SBBI bond index has
: returned 11.03% a year on average over the past 30 years, edging out the 10.
: 98% return of stocks."
: We should thank Fed and all governments to make the biggest bubble in
: history. Now the question is which one is more expensive, stock or bond?
avatar
l*n
81 楼
我也觉得lz应该是把后面的401K全部算进去了。否则这个投资回报太恐怖了。

reinvestment)

【在 s******8 的大作中提到】
: 我估计LZ在international回报比较高。
: 1989到2014，large/middle/small cap的total return (包括dividend reinvestment)
: 在9%-10%.还不包括管理费。所以平均一年16%的return非常惊人。international的数
: 据查不到，所以不知道LZ的回报是多少。
: 除非LZ把1989后每年的401 contribution也算到这个40倍里去了。
avatar
s*8
82 楼
强烈怀疑其可靠性。没有任何fund跟踪这个Ibbotson Associates SBBI bond index。
也没有任何关于这个index组成的内容。Ibbotson SBBI年报卖185刀。
USA Today记者没仔细读就乱写。把复利和单利搞混了。
http://wenku.baidu.com/view/69843ee60975f46527d3e119.html
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/his

belief
has
10.

【在 y****i 的大作中提到】
: Even two years ago, there's an interesting comparison with stock and bond
: past 30 year total return, and bond wins.
: http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/markets/story/2012-01-04/b
: Why are bonds outperforming stocks over long term?
: "What's more surprising, though, since it contradicts the widespread belief
: that stocks beat bonds, is that the Ibbotson Associates SBBI bond index has
: returned 11.03% a year on average over the past 30 years, edging out the 10.
: 98% return of stocks."
: We should thank Fed and all governments to make the biggest bubble in
: history. Now the question is which one is more expensive, stock or bond?
avatar
S*P
83 楼
the same here, hehe...

simply
believe
in

【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: I do not like 401K, but government forces me to put money in 401K. I simply
: do not put more money than the mandated amount. Within 401K, I study
: Fidelity funds carefully since my 401K is at Fidelity. I do not "buy and
: hold", I try to time the market. I know people on this board firmly believe
: that no one can time the market. I happen to believe I can learn it,
: although it is certainly not easy. For the rest of the money, I put them in
: an personal investment account. But I do not touch actively managed mutual
: funds. I only use the low cost index funds.
: Make sense?
:
avatar
S*P
84 楼
帖帐户最有说服力

多。

【在 t*******s 的大作中提到】
: 分享一下401K的經驗。從1984年開始，每年max contribution. 其間換過公司，一般
: 有Pension就不再match, 沒有pension的話，match 都還不錯。即使有pension, 我仍
: 然 maxed out。現在的淨值是 1989 年的四十倍。期間經過 1987，1999，2008 三次大
: 跌。尤其是 2008，幾乎只剩一半。 好在三次都沒有出市，最終都回來而且更高。這裡
: 給年輕人一個bench mark, 你的401K如果現在有100K的話，25年后，可能有4M 或更多。
: 基本操作就是5個fund; Large Cap Growth, Large Cap Value, Mid Cap, Small
: Cap, International 。心血來潮時rebalance一下。沒有買過bond 。
: 得到幾點心得：
: 1. 401K是長遠之計，尤其是年輕時，不必為漲跌煩心。
: 2. 過去30年，每次大漲跌週期大約十年。
avatar
M*r
85 楼
LZ讲的清清楚楚的，89年是100K，每年max contribution, 现在是当时的40倍，这有什
么不清楚的。SOFC也作了back test, 89年100K， 每月1Kcontribution, 仅投VFINX，不
做rebalance, 到现在可达2-3M. 加上LZ的Mid small cap fund and international
fund, 再加上max contribution, 4M 完全可能。这个回报也就是符合market return.
没什么surprising的。真正说明问题的是LZ的buy and hold 和 坚持投资，谁这么做，
都可以做到4M，问题是绝大部分人作不到。当然LZ的100%equity 风险是很大的。
(I edited my typo: 100K in 89, not 10K)
在 liyunyun (李芸芸) 的大作中提到: 】
avatar
s*i
86 楼
10k * 40 = 4000k???

.

【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: LZ讲的清清楚楚的，89年是100K，每年max contribution, 现在是当时的40倍，这有什
: 么不清楚的。SOFC也作了back test, 89年100K， 每月1Kcontribution, 仅投VFINX，不
: 做rebalance, 到现在可达2-3M. 加上LZ的Mid small cap fund and international
: fund, 再加上max contribution, 4M 完全可能。这个回报也就是符合market return.
: 没什么surprising的。真正说明问题的是LZ的buy and hold 和 坚持投资，谁这么做，
: 都可以做到4M，问题是绝大部分人作不到。当然LZ的100%equity 风险是很大的。
: (I edited my typo: 100K in 89, not 10K)
: 在 liyunyun (李芸芸) 的大作中提到: 】
avatar
M*r
87 楼
my bad. sorry. LZ said you can turn 100K in to 4M after 25 years of max
contribution.

【在 s*i 的大作中提到】
: 10k * 40 = 4000k???
:
: .
avatar
t*s
88 楼
OK, I'd like to make a few points clear after reading all the posts here.
I did not have 100K back in 1989. We had lower amount of annual
contribution back then. I remember I started at $3000 a year. Nevertheless
, 40 times of the 1989 value. The bull market helped. But the bond market
was also good in those years. Yes, I could have 60/40 mix and get lower
volatility.
Like I said, I was one of the first wave 401K investors. I am only
providing a bench mark for you guys. And truth be told here, my own outside
investment, because of lack of discipline, is no where near my 401K return
today.
Hindsight is always 20/20.
and also, thanks Ms Harker to chime in.

，不
.

【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: LZ讲的清清楚楚的，89年是100K，每年max contribution, 现在是当时的40倍，这有什
: 么不清楚的。SOFC也作了back test, 89年100K， 每月1Kcontribution, 仅投VFINX，不
: 做rebalance, 到现在可达2-3M. 加上LZ的Mid small cap fund and international
: fund, 再加上max contribution, 4M 完全可能。这个回报也就是符合market return.
: 没什么surprising的。真正说明问题的是LZ的buy and hold 和 坚持投资，谁这么做，
: 都可以做到4M，问题是绝大部分人作不到。当然LZ的100%equity 风险是很大的。
: (I edited my typo: 100K in 89, not 10K)
: 在 liyunyun (李芸芸) 的大作中提到: 】
avatar
M*r
89 楼
40x in 25 yrs is something to be proud of. congrats. as you said, this
provides us a real life bench mark and shows us the power of long term
investing. but I caution that 100% equity is not for the faint of heart. are
you still stock only?

Nevertheless
outside
return

【在 t*******s 的大作中提到】
: OK, I'd like to make a few points clear after reading all the posts here.
: I did not have 100K back in 1989. We had lower amount of annual
: contribution back then. I remember I started at $3000 a year. Nevertheless
: , 40 times of the 1989 value. The bull market helped. But the bond market
: was also good in those years. Yes, I could have 60/40 mix and get lower
: volatility.
: Like I said, I was one of the first wave 401K investors. I am only
: providing a bench mark for you guys. And truth be told here, my own outside
: investment, because of lack of discipline, is no where near my 401K return
: today.
avatar
S*C
90 楼
Generous company match also helps? I suspect the company match for our
generation are less generous than yours.

Nevertheless
outside
return

【在 t*******s 的大作中提到】
: OK, I'd like to make a few points clear after reading all the posts here.
: I did not have 100K back in 1989. We had lower amount of annual
: contribution back then. I remember I started at $3000 a year. Nevertheless
: , 40 times of the 1989 value. The bull market helped. But the bond market
: was also good in those years. Yes, I could have 60/40 mix and get lower
: volatility.
: Like I said, I was one of the first wave 401K investors. I am only
: providing a bench mark for you guys. And truth be told here, my own outside
: investment, because of lack of discipline, is no where near my 401K return
: today.
avatar
b*w
91 楼
Doesn't your 401K allow something called BrokerageLink? My company's plan
with fidelity has that, which allows you trade any security(stocks, ETFs,
etc.) just as in your personal account. My husband's employer offers an
similar option through Vanguard. Ask your company to negotiate that option
for you.

【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: That is your point of view. I got it.
: But I noticed the fact that I am not allowed to buy GDX in my 401K plan.
: Fidelity is the only one that offers fancy options like FSAGX. All these
: options underperform the corresponding index fund significantly, and I am
: not allowed to buy those index funds.
: I believe I have to understand why this is the case.
:
: .5
: Its
: to
avatar
E*w
92 楼
How many employees does your company have? I don't think an individual
employee in companies like Microsoft or GE has any say in the type of 401K
plan he/she receives.

【在 b****w 的大作中提到】
: Doesn't your 401K allow something called BrokerageLink? My company's plan
: with fidelity has that, which allows you trade any security(stocks, ETFs,
: etc.) just as in your personal account. My husband's employer offers an
: similar option through Vanguard. Ask your company to negotiate that option
: for you.
avatar
s*8
93 楼
您还是说点具体数字吧。免得大家乱猜。
比如1989年的时候20K（我猜1984-1989，3K*6+增值）,加上25年来的contribution,
employer match和增值，现在有800K。

Nevertheless
outside
return

【在 t*******s 的大作中提到】
: OK, I'd like to make a few points clear after reading all the posts here.
: I did not have 100K back in 1989. We had lower amount of annual
: contribution back then. I remember I started at $3000 a year. Nevertheless
: , 40 times of the 1989 value. The bull market helped. But the bond market
: was also good in those years. Yes, I could have 60/40 mix and get lower
: volatility.
: Like I said, I was one of the first wave 401K investors. I am only
: providing a bench mark for you guys. And truth be told here, my own outside
: investment, because of lack of discipline, is no where near my 401K return
: today.
avatar
S*P
94 楼
can you trade options, short stocks in the brokeragelink account, just as
ways of hedges?
is it a margin account?

【在 b****w 的大作中提到】
: Doesn't your 401K allow something called BrokerageLink? My company's plan
: with fidelity has that, which allows you trade any security(stocks, ETFs,
: etc.) just as in your personal account. My husband's employer offers an
: similar option through Vanguard. Ask your company to negotiate that option
: for you.
avatar
i*s
95 楼
EmMeadow -- I think SOFC and Mina replied to you extremely nicely and in a
helpful way. No one forces you to participate in 401K; there is no
government scheme here. In fact, the government is probably secretly hoping
you to contribute less, for it to collect more tax now.
What choices you have in your 401K is totally up to your company. How much
fees you are paying is also up to your company's negotiation with 401K
provider.
My 401K is with Fidelity, like yours. There is a BrokerageLink option that
you can enable it to trade anything you want (exactly like a taxable
investment account), with the benefit you do not need to pay tax for
dividend and capital gain (now), but with the disadvantage that you cannot
do tax loss harvesting; and, it might embolden you to take risky positions.
You can definitely influence the 401K choices. Talking to your company
benefits representative.

【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: How many employees does your company have? I don't think an individual
: employee in companies like Microsoft or GE has any say in the type of 401K
: plan he/she receives.
avatar
i*s
96 楼
This guy publishes his net worth monthly: http://www.2millionblog.com/2014/05/april_2014_net_worth_update_5069.html
He had 62K in his 401K in August 2005, and 450K in April 2014.
I did not follow him closely, but I guess he contributed max-allowed each
year, and his employer (IBM) might have good matches. He seems not an index
guy, but definitely long term investor, not a stock trader.
Whoever followed him in this board could chime in.

【在 s******8 的大作中提到】
: 您还是说点具体数字吧。免得大家乱猜。
: 比如1989年的时候20K（我猜1984-1989，3K*6+增值）,加上25年来的contribution,
: employer match和增值，现在有800K。
:
: Nevertheless
: outside
: return
avatar
i*s
97 楼
Another point to consider is, I am sure his account balance will be probably
half in 2008, compared to the number now. That is the risk of owning 100%
stock (and the funds he owns are generally riskier than total market);
thinking about if you have to retire and withdraw in 2008 - 2009 time.

【在 s******8 的大作中提到】
: 您还是说点具体数字吧。免得大家乱猜。
: 比如1989年的时候20K（我猜1984-1989，3K*6+增值）,加上25年来的contribution,
: employer match和增值，现在有800K。
:
: Nevertheless
: outside
: return
avatar
a*p
98 楼
this is an amazing blog. Nice to follow. Wish he can add more information
about how much new money goes in these account s each month.

index

【在 i**s 的大作中提到】
: This guy publishes his net worth monthly: http://www.2millionblog.com/2014/05/april_2014_net_worth_update_5069.html
: He had 62K in his 401K in August 2005, and 450K in April 2014.
: I did not follow him closely, but I guess he contributed max-allowed each
: year, and his employer (IBM) might have good matches. He seems not an index
: guy, but definitely long term investor, not a stock trader.
: Whoever followed him in this board could chime in.
avatar
E*w
99 楼
We are both adults. Let us do not pretend to be naïve. Everyone reading
this article can make a judgment on how much power they have in "
negotiating" their 401K options.
I checked my company policy and talked with HR people extensively on this. I
have been trying to find creative ideas to avoid the 401K constraints. I
also talked with Fidelity customer services to check their detailed fees and
excessive trading penalty rules. As I said, I try to understand these
options and I did my homework.
In addition, if you want to believe that government is trying their best to
help us, that's your choice. People certainly have the freedom to believe in
government programs, believe in trading disciplines, believe in god. I do
not trust the US government, just like I do not trust the communist party.

hoping

【在 i**s 的大作中提到】
: EmMeadow -- I think SOFC and Mina replied to you extremely nicely and in a
: helpful way. No one forces you to participate in 401K; there is no
: government scheme here. In fact, the government is probably secretly hoping
: you to contribute less, for it to collect more tax now.
: What choices you have in your 401K is totally up to your company. How much
: fees you are paying is also up to your company's negotiation with 401K
: provider.
: My 401K is with Fidelity, like yours. There is a BrokerageLink option that
: you can enable it to trade anything you want (exactly like a taxable
: investment account), with the benefit you do not need to pay tax for
avatar
e*d
100 楼
can you explian more about the risk of 100% equity?
let's rule out the scenario one is with in 5 years to retirement.
say one is 20 years away from retirement, 100% equity. if the market is a
down trend, then monthly 401k contribution will buy low. the more the market
crashes, the more future return. So a good thing isn't it? waiting for when
market comes back, and it will eventually, one will have high return plus
all the previous lost.
because i'm planning to follow OP's discipline, 100% equity. But if indeed
risky due to market crash, please point it out and thanks a lot.

，不
.

【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: LZ讲的清清楚楚的，89年是100K，每年max contribution, 现在是当时的40倍，这有什
: 么不清楚的。SOFC也作了back test, 89年100K， 每月1Kcontribution, 仅投VFINX，不
: 做rebalance, 到现在可达2-3M. 加上LZ的Mid small cap fund and international
: fund, 再加上max contribution, 4M 完全可能。这个回报也就是符合market return.
: 没什么surprising的。真正说明问题的是LZ的buy and hold 和 坚持投资，谁这么做，
: 都可以做到4M，问题是绝大部分人作不到。当然LZ的100%equity 风险是很大的。
: (I edited my typo: 100K in 89, not 10K)
: 在 liyunyun (李芸芸) 的大作中提到: 】
avatar
S*P
101 楼
"There is a BrokerageLink option that you can enable it to trade anything
you want...."
are you sure?
I guess what you meant is 'buy anything you want', not 'trade anything you
want'. there is a huge difference between these two.

hoping

【在 i**s 的大作中提到】
: EmMeadow -- I think SOFC and Mina replied to you extremely nicely and in a
: helpful way. No one forces you to participate in 401K; there is no
: government scheme here. In fact, the government is probably secretly hoping
: you to contribute less, for it to collect more tax now.
: What choices you have in your 401K is totally up to your company. How much
: fees you are paying is also up to your company's negotiation with 401K
: provider.
: My 401K is with Fidelity, like yours. There is a BrokerageLink option that
: you can enable it to trade anything you want (exactly like a taxable
: investment account), with the benefit you do not need to pay tax for
avatar
y*i
102 楼
You may not have enough cash to buy low if all equity value shrinks.
Cash or bond is a buffer to make sure you can DCA at any time even the stock
market goes down more than 50%.
If you have a very stable job, your salary may generate extra cash flow but
in a recession you may need money everywhere.
"Waiting for when market comes back, and it will eventually" may take longer
time than your thought, some time is forever, like Japan or China.

market
when

【在 e****d 的大作中提到】
: can you explian more about the risk of 100% equity?
: let's rule out the scenario one is with in 5 years to retirement.
: say one is 20 years away from retirement, 100% equity. if the market is a
: down trend, then monthly 401k contribution will buy low. the more the market
: crashes, the more future return. So a good thing isn't it? waiting for when
: market comes back, and it will eventually, one will have high return plus
: all the previous lost.
: because i'm planning to follow OP's discipline, 100% equity. But if indeed
: risky due to market crash, please point it out and thanks a lot.
:
avatar
M*r
103 楼
What u said is true and is proved by LZ' s original post. If u have 20plus
yrs on the time horizon, you can affordnto lose a lot. Simply keep adding
more to ur acount and ride out market turmoil. In the end u will end up
betterr than who bails out. Thats exactly what LZ did. Problem is psychology
. When u see your account getting a 50%haircut, when u see people around you
bailing out , do u still have the stomach to keep dca. Most people dont.
And lots of them sell at market bottom and miss the boat on the way up. If u
do this, u end up much worse than LZ. So the key is psychology.

market
when

【在 e****d 的大作中提到】
: can you explian more about the risk of 100% equity?
: let's rule out the scenario one is with in 5 years to retirement.
: say one is 20 years away from retirement, 100% equity. if the market is a
: down trend, then monthly 401k contribution will buy low. the more the market
: crashes, the more future return. So a good thing isn't it? waiting for when
: market comes back, and it will eventually, one will have high return plus
: all the previous lost.
: because i'm planning to follow OP's discipline, 100% equity. But if indeed
: risky due to market crash, please point it out and thanks a lot.
:
avatar
S*C
104 楼
I always find your claim that government force you into 401(k) is quite
convoluted, you do not need to put a single cent into 401(k), nobody forces
you to do that. If you mean employer match, the government does not force
the employers to do matched 401(k) contribution. As a matter of fact, many
employers, especially smaller ones, give no match, or even have no 401(k)
plan. You may well consider company match a part of your compensation from
your employer.
If you mean lack of tax shelter for retirement savings other than 401(k)
that you can put in significant amount, well, first you still have IRA, and
secondly tax shelter is not necessarily an entitlement.

reading
I
and
to
in

【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: We are both adults. Let us do not pretend to be naïve. Everyone reading
: this article can make a judgment on how much power they have in "
: negotiating" their 401K options.
: I checked my company policy and talked with HR people extensively on this. I
: have been trying to find creative ideas to avoid the 401K constraints. I
: also talked with Fidelity customer services to check their detailed fees and
: excessive trading penalty rules. As I said, I try to understand these
: options and I did my homework.
: In addition, if you want to believe that government is trying their best to
: help us, that's your choice. People certainly have the freedom to believe in
avatar
M*r
105 楼
If ur local donut shop offers free donjts but u have to get up early to pick
it up. U want the free donut and u get up early and get the donut.
Afterwards you tell other people the donut shop forced u to get up early. ..
401k is not without problems. As E said , high fees poor investment
products are known to investors especially tbose in small companies as they
have less negotiating power with thw providera. But u an certainly try to
make the most out of it. The company match and tax benefit itselc are.
lrobably bettr than any investment you do on urself
avatar
E*w
106 楼
I mean employer match. Goverment does not control tiny employers that well.
For big ones, they all have match policy. If you do not contribute to your
401K, then you do not get the match. This is not "extra bonus", they are
part of your salary calculated already in the business cost of the company.
If it is not because of the government, companies can just give the match
part to you and allow you to manage the money in whatever way you want. The
cost for the company is the same. Just to give you a better example. If you
hire a nany to take care of your baby, you just pay her. You do not force
her to put money into 401K or a pension. Big company cannot do that, they
have to comply with government regulation. That is where the 401K and match
policy come from.
Also, 401K has very restrictive trading constraints, usually the number of
available funds are far smaller than a regular trading account. You cannot
short a stock, you cannot trade futures, you cannot buy/sell options. Once
you put money in 401K, you can't take it out before age 59.5. With all these
restrictions, if you just want to
believe it is a good program, then it is essentially a "religion". Just like
how much people believe in "buy and hold". You trust it with you full heart
, never question it even when you are seriously hurt.
If you understand what you do, you understand what the program means, you
try to control your mental impulse and calmly choose the program and the
behavior that are best for your own interest, that is wisdom and discipline.
If you simply believe a program or a policy is good and force yourself to
choose it or follow it without ever questioning their validity, that is
religion.
401K is certainly better than most of the pension programs. It is created in
a time when people lost confidence in the pension programs where strangers
control your money without even letting you know what they are doing with it
. 401K gives you the illusion that you are controlling your own money. Yet
it puts all the constraints on your behavior, trying to force you to do the
wrong thing and give your money slowly to the Wall Street. It is easy to see
this point if people do not just trust the government or bankers in a
religious way.

forces
and

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: I always find your claim that government force you into 401(k) is quite
: convoluted, you do not need to put a single cent into 401(k), nobody forces
: you to do that. If you mean employer match, the government does not force
: the employers to do matched 401(k) contribution. As a matter of fact, many
: employers, especially smaller ones, give no match, or even have no 401(k)
: plan. You may well consider company match a part of your compensation from
: your employer.
: If you mean lack of tax shelter for retirement savings other than 401(k)
: that you can put in significant amount, well, first you still have IRA, and
: secondly tax shelter is not necessarily an entitlement.
avatar
w*n
107 楼
That's just one way to look at it.
You hire a nanny, you just pay her money because you simply don't care how
she goes on and lives her life after it's done. As for the government, it's
obligated to ensure your certain entitlements. Tax deferral is not one of
the entitlements. But if that allows you to earmark the savings for
retirement, you may end up having enough money to live a decent life without
causing social problems and IRS can still collect the deferred tax income
from you. That would be a win-win. All the restrictions are trying to avoid
a situation that you gamble and lose it all.
Other shortcomings or restrictions you mentioned, as long as they are not
direct outcomes of government regulations, are just problems of your
specific employer. Don't confuse multiple things and blame just the
government. That's kinda religious too. Among the people I know, our 401K's
all have a brokerage option and all have funds choices that have extremely
low fee, such as VIIIX whose ER is 0.02%. I receive from time to time emails
from colleagues on the mail list who request various options and features
to the benefits department. Good things happen when enough people make the
demand.

.
.
The
you
match

【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: I mean employer match. Goverment does not control tiny employers that well.
: For big ones, they all have match policy. If you do not contribute to your
: 401K, then you do not get the match. This is not "extra bonus", they are
: part of your salary calculated already in the business cost of the company.
: If it is not because of the government, companies can just give the match
: part to you and allow you to manage the money in whatever way you want. The
: cost for the company is the same. Just to give you a better example. If you
: hire a nany to take care of your baby, you just pay her. You do not force
: her to put money into 401K or a pension. Big company cannot do that, they
: have to comply with government regulation. That is where the 401K and match
avatar
E*w
108 楼
I agree with the first part. Whether you have the right to control your own
money, this is part of your freedom. Belief in freedom is indeed like belief
in god. Some people believe freedom is granted by the government and
government has the right to take it away. Other people believe freedom is
the basic human right. I completely agree it is a religious belief. But, isn
't it the reason that people come to the US? It is the right thing to
constrain an adult so that he/she will not gamble? Really? And it is good
for us? I guess I am way outdated. My basic principle is that, if someone
wants to put a constraint on my choices, I feel the danger first.

s
without
avoid

【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: That's just one way to look at it.
: You hire a nanny, you just pay her money because you simply don't care how
: she goes on and lives her life after it's done. As for the government, it's
: obligated to ensure your certain entitlements. Tax deferral is not one of
: the entitlements. But if that allows you to earmark the savings for
: retirement, you may end up having enough money to live a decent life without
: causing social problems and IRS can still collect the deferred tax income
: from you. That would be a win-win. All the restrictions are trying to avoid
: a situation that you gamble and lose it all.
: Other shortcomings or restrictions you mentioned, as long as they are not
avatar
s*n
109 楼
LZ 算术有问题吧，
从1989年之后，你每年是否投满401k,加上公司的match?
你应该用现在的value divide by the total you invest in 401 k and company
match of each year, not the just the first year.

多。

【在 t*******s 的大作中提到】
: 分享一下401K的經驗。從1984年開始，每年max contribution. 其間換過公司，一般
: 有Pension就不再match, 沒有pension的話，match 都還不錯。即使有pension, 我仍
: 然 maxed out。現在的淨值是 1989 年的四十倍。期間經過 1987，1999，2008 三次大
: 跌。尤其是 2008，幾乎只剩一半。 好在三次都沒有出市，最終都回來而且更高。這裡
: 給年輕人一個bench mark, 你的401K如果現在有100K的話，25年后，可能有4M 或更多。
: 基本操作就是5個fund; Large Cap Growth, Large Cap Value, Mid Cap, Small
: Cap, International 。心血來潮時rebalance一下。沒有買過bond 。
: 得到幾點心得：
: 1. 401K是長遠之計，尤其是年輕時，不必為漲跌煩心。
: 2. 過去30年，每次大漲跌週期大約十年。
avatar
w*n
110 楼
It's indeed your money, for the most part less deferred tax, but like I said
, government has its stake in it too. It's a partnership. If you take good
care of the money, you can have a decent retirement life, and you won't
become a liability to the government. If everything goes well, it's a win-
win situation.
Would it help you understand if you think of it partially as a loan from IRS
? With a loan, you don't get to do whatever you want. There are restrictions
attached to it. Why human right is involved here is something I don't
understand. Your freedom is on whether or not to take the loan (tax deferral
), which you apparently have, not on playing games with the contract.
"It is the right thing to constrain an adult so that he/she will not gamble?"
If I lend someone money, that would be my reasonable request for him/her not
to gamble with that money.

own
belief
isn

【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: I agree with the first part. Whether you have the right to control your own
: money, this is part of your freedom. Belief in freedom is indeed like belief
: in god. Some people believe freedom is granted by the government and
: government has the right to take it away. Other people believe freedom is
: the basic human right. I completely agree it is a religious belief. But, isn
: 't it the reason that people come to the US? It is the right thing to
: constrain an adult so that he/she will not gamble? Really? And it is good
: for us? I guess I am way outdated. My basic principle is that, if someone
: wants to put a constraint on my choices, I feel the danger first.
:
avatar
E*w
111 楼
Well, then a deeper question is whether a goverment has the right to tax its
citizen.
If your answer is yes, then sure, government gives you tax break, it has the
right to ask for something in return. But, instead of taking "yes" as the
answer for granted, you should check US history on when and how income tax
gets into the law. Then you may want to learn how Fed gets the right to
print money. It is a whole journey to learn about the fundamentals of
liberty and freedom :-)

said
IRS
restrictions
deferral

【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: It's indeed your money, for the most part less deferred tax, but like I said
: , government has its stake in it too. It's a partnership. If you take good
: care of the money, you can have a decent retirement life, and you won't
: become a liability to the government. If everything goes well, it's a win-
: win situation.
: Would it help you understand if you think of it partially as a loan from IRS
: ? With a loan, you don't get to do whatever you want. There are restrictions
: attached to it. Why human right is involved here is something I don't
: understand. Your freedom is on whether or not to take the loan (tax deferral
: ), which you apparently have, not on playing games with the contract.
avatar
w*n
112 楼
You're very deep, I'll give you that. I'd pass on the soul-searching journey
you offered though. LOL

its
the

【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: Well, then a deeper question is whether a goverment has the right to tax its
: citizen.
: If your answer is yes, then sure, government gives you tax break, it has the
: right to ask for something in return. But, instead of taking "yes" as the
: answer for granted, you should check US history on when and how income tax
: gets into the law. Then you may want to learn how Fed gets the right to
: print money. It is a whole journey to learn about the fundamentals of
: liberty and freedom :-)
:
: said
avatar
S*C
113 楼
The government does not dictate/care if employers setup 401(k) plan or not,
has match policy or not. You can still manage your own money whatever way
you want for your retirement saving, in your brokerage, just without the
benefit of tax deferral and creditor protections like 401(k) provided. Why
is it so hard to understand that tax shelter is not an entitlement?
In regard to trading restriction is good or bad, you gonna come up a theory
other than trading is THE culprit which lead to the aggregate investor
equity return over the last 30 years lagged S&P 500 by a whopping 7%. We are
not talking about 1-2% here, which could because of high ERs, bad funds,
bad selections, etc. Again, what you have said has nothing to do your claim
that the government forced you into 401(k), you do not need to put in a
single cent, and no government agencies will come after you for doing that.
They may be quite happy to get extra current tax from you.
Some historical fact. 401(k) was created in late 70s early 80s when pension
system was strong. trying to force you to do the wrong thing? What's the
right thing? Trade often? Short? Leveraged ETFs? Play options? Well you
gonna demonstrate the investors, majority of which are clueless, in
aggregate had been outperform market significantly. They didn't, lose badly
by a large margin.
Transfer slowly to the Wall Street? 2-3% hidden fees again?

.
.
The
you
match

【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: I mean employer match. Goverment does not control tiny employers that well.
: For big ones, they all have match policy. If you do not contribute to your
: 401K, then you do not get the match. This is not "extra bonus", they are
: part of your salary calculated already in the business cost of the company.
: If it is not because of the government, companies can just give the match
: part to you and allow you to manage the money in whatever way you want. The
: cost for the company is the same. Just to give you a better example. If you
: hire a nany to take care of your baby, you just pay her. You do not force
: her to put money into 401K or a pension. Big company cannot do that, they
: have to comply with government regulation. That is where the 401K and match
avatar
i*s
114 楼
The other point to understand the government is not forcing 401K is to
understand 401K's history. Quoted from this link:
http://www.learnvest.com/knowledge-center/your-401k-when-it-was
... But these plans, named after a section in the Internal Revenue Code,
were actually developed more by accident than by design. When lawmakers
originally established the Revenue Act of 1978, the goal was to limit
executives at some companies from having too much access to the perks of
cash-deferred plans. (Why, you ask? Since the 1950s, companies had been
fighting with the Internal Revenue Service to allow more money to be
squirreled away in such plans.)...
(Like how states fought IRS to start 529 plans, not the intention from
federal government)
The take away is, fed government does not proactively or intentionally set
up 401K; it is more from the finance system, which always wants to grow its
business and charge more fees, managed to comb through the code and
interpreted some provision/sections in such a way benefitting the finance
system.

,
theory
are
claim

【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: The government does not dictate/care if employers setup 401(k) plan or not,
: has match policy or not. You can still manage your own money whatever way
: you want for your retirement saving, in your brokerage, just without the
: benefit of tax deferral and creditor protections like 401(k) provided. Why
: is it so hard to understand that tax shelter is not an entitlement?
: In regard to trading restriction is good or bad, you gonna come up a theory
: other than trading is THE culprit which lead to the aggregate investor
: equity return over the last 30 years lagged S&P 500 by a whopping 7%. We are
: not talking about 1-2% here, which could because of high ERs, bad funds,
: bad selections, etc. Again, what you have said has nothing to do your claim
avatar
i*s
115 楼
Your company chooses what you can do via BrokerageLink, similar to what fund
choices you have if you do not want to open BrokerageLink. (You, as an
employee, can always talk to benefit rep. to comment and provide feedback).
For my company plan, there is no problem trading stocks, but option trading
is not allowed.
(I personally do not enable BrokerageLink, so I do not have first-hand
experiences.)

【在 S*P 的大作中提到】
: "There is a BrokerageLink option that you can enable it to trade anything
: you want...."
: are you sure?
: I guess what you meant is 'buy anything you want', not 'trade anything you
: want'. there is a huge difference between these two.
:
: hoping
avatar
t*s
116 楼
看了很多回帖，有抬扛的，有憤青寫的，好像都 Miss the point。 貼這個帖子目的
是以我個人的例子來說明 passive investment 以及 Time value of money。401K 是
1980 年代建立的一個遊戲規則。我的經驗只是在這規則下，工薪階層的一個例子而已
。我自己每年也存 regular account, 裡面有 Stock, ETF, Mutual Fund, Option,
因為缺乏 discipline，return 沒有我的 401K account 好。所以401K的一些限制，對
我來說是個正能量。
另外給你們一個高端的 bench mark, Mittt Romney 的 IRA 在15 年后有102M。http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/09/whats-really-going-on-with-mitt-romneys-102-million-ira/261500/
那位鄙視我們是資本家奴隸的仁兄，這個可是你的bench mark。 看好了沒有？
我想未來的 strategy，應該還是 passive investing，但是分配可能不同。也許以
Sector 為主。Energy, financial, material, real estate 等等。每個 sector 漲跌
會比 SP500 大，所以rebalance 會變得更重要。Bond 不會再比過去的30年好，有所謂
的 new normal。各人頭上一片天，這是看各位長時間的毅力，祝各位退休時財源如水
源。
在此也一並謝謝很多ID 的解釋。
avatar
s*t
117 楼
多谢tigerless老兄！
avatar
b*w
118 楼
My company has 1500ppl. I would assume (in general) the larger the company
is, the better their 401K's quality is.
If they don't have some certain options and employees complain enough, they
might consider it...

【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: How many employees does your company have? I don't think an individual
: employee in companies like Microsoft or GE has any say in the type of 401K
: plan he/she receives.
avatar
b*w
119 楼
I'm not sure about margin, can we can trade stocks, options and futures in
through that option.

【在 S*P 的大作中提到】
: can you trade options, short stocks in the brokeragelink account, just as
: ways of hedges?
: is it a margin account?
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