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some useful data for FY07, FY08, FY09, FY10
Perm Data(EB2&3 Approved in the FY)
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10
China 6846 3328 2094 4000
India 24573 16569 11387 29000
In FY07, I take a look at the EB2 485 inventory:
average monthly Chinese EB2 485 submitted is 700
average monthly India EB2 485 submitted is 1600
I guess the monthly Chinese EB2 demand for FY08 will decrease to 400(from
the perm data trend).
But the monthly India EB2 demand for FY08 will not decrease a lot although
the perm data is less because of the following reasons, hopefully I am wrong.
1. you can take a look at the current India inventory, that the EB2/EB3
ratio is bigger and bigger,
2. lots of EB3 will port to EB2 because the 5 years experience will qualify
lots of india engineers with PD before FY08 especially FY10, FY11 job
markets are better than FY08, FY09. The root cause is the india consulting
company:((
I think(my pure guess, hard to predict india EB3 porting(they may create new
fake method), NIW etc, I just use the perm trend and current EB inventory
to guess)
PD from 04/2007 to 9/2007, the total C&I EB2 monthly demand will roughly be
2300(1600I+700C)
PD from 10/2007 to 9/2008, the total C&I EB2 monthly demand will roughly be
1800(1400I+400C)
PD from 10/2008 to 9/2009, the total C&I EB2 monthly demand will roughly be
1450(1200I+250C)
PD from 10/2009 to 9/2010, the total C&I EB2 monthly demand will roughly be
2550(2000I+550C)
So
if FY12 so is 20000, then PD before 4/15/2008 can get green card at the end
of FY12.
if FY12 so is 25000, then PD before 6/30/2008 can get green card at the end
of FY12.
I am sorry my PD is in July/2008:)). I am quite realistic that I may be able
to submit 485 at the end of FY12 or beginning of FY13.
To be honest, for Chinese, PD before 06/2009 is not so bad(my guess per
above), but PD after that is crazy since the new EB2 policy, EB3 porting
once the economy is a little better etc. think about FY10 india perm 29000.
and most of them are fake EB2s, lots of EB3 are trying to port to EB2.
Please join NIU and stop the current situation, especially the people with
PD after 06/2009. If nothing change, I guess we will be able to use our 2800 only
in FY13 and later.
Perm Data(EB2&3 Approved in the FY)
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10
China 6846 3328 2094 4000
India 24573 16569 11387 29000
In FY07, I take a look at the EB2 485 inventory:
average monthly Chinese EB2 485 submitted is 700
average monthly India EB2 485 submitted is 1600
I guess the monthly Chinese EB2 demand for FY08 will decrease to 400(from
the perm data trend).
But the monthly India EB2 demand for FY08 will not decrease a lot although
the perm data is less because of the following reasons, hopefully I am wrong.
1. you can take a look at the current India inventory, that the EB2/EB3
ratio is bigger and bigger,
2. lots of EB3 will port to EB2 because the 5 years experience will qualify
lots of india engineers with PD before FY08 especially FY10, FY11 job
markets are better than FY08, FY09. The root cause is the india consulting
company:((
I think(my pure guess, hard to predict india EB3 porting(they may create new
fake method), NIW etc, I just use the perm trend and current EB inventory
to guess)
PD from 04/2007 to 9/2007, the total C&I EB2 monthly demand will roughly be
2300(1600I+700C)
PD from 10/2007 to 9/2008, the total C&I EB2 monthly demand will roughly be
1800(1400I+400C)
PD from 10/2008 to 9/2009, the total C&I EB2 monthly demand will roughly be
1450(1200I+250C)
PD from 10/2009 to 9/2010, the total C&I EB2 monthly demand will roughly be
2550(2000I+550C)
So
if FY12 so is 20000, then PD before 4/15/2008 can get green card at the end
of FY12.
if FY12 so is 25000, then PD before 6/30/2008 can get green card at the end
of FY12.
I am sorry my PD is in July/2008:)). I am quite realistic that I may be able
to submit 485 at the end of FY12 or beginning of FY13.
To be honest, for Chinese, PD before 06/2009 is not so bad(my guess per
above), but PD after that is crazy since the new EB2 policy, EB3 porting
once the economy is a little better etc. think about FY10 india perm 29000.
and most of them are fake EB2s, lots of EB3 are trying to port to EB2.
Please join NIU and stop the current situation, especially the people with
PD after 06/2009. If nothing change, I guess we will be able to use our 2800 only
in FY13 and later.
