美国智库研究中国的书# China - 中国研究
p*o
1 楼
Sustaining China's Economic Growth After the Global Financial Crisis [
Paperback]
Nicholas R. Lardy
Book Description
Publication Date: January 15, 2012
The global financial crisis and ensuing economic downturn has raised many
questions concerning the future of global economic growth. Prior to the
financial crisis, global growth was characterized by growing imbalances,
reflected primarily in large trade surpluses in China, Japan, Germany, and
the oil exporting countries and rapidly growing deficits, primarily in the
United States. The global crisis raises the question of whether the previous
growth model of low consumption, high saving countries such as China is
obsolete. Although a strong and rapid policy response beginning in the early
fall of 2008 made China the first globally significant economy to come off
the bottom and begin to grow more rapidly, critics charged that China's
recovery was based on the old growth model, relying primarily on burgeoning
investment in the short run and the expectation of a revival of expanding
net exports once global recovery gained traction. Critics, however, argued
that as government-financed investment inevitably tapered off, the
likelihood was that global recovery would not be sufficiently strong for
China's exports to resume their former role as a major contributor to China'
s economic expansion. The prospect, in the eyes of these critics, is that
China's growth will inevitably falter. This study examines China's response
to the global crisis, the prospects for altering the model of economic
growth that dominated the first decade of this century, and the implications
for the United States and the global economy of successful Chinese
rebalancing. On the first it analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of China'
s stimulus program. On the second it analyzes the nature of origins of the
imbalances in China's economy and the array of policy options that the
government has to transition to more consumption-driven growth. On the third
successful rebalancing would mean that more rapid growth of consumption
would offset the drag on growth from a shrinkage of China's external surplus
. Successful rebalancing would mean China would no longer be a source of
financing for any ongoing US external deficit. From a global perspective
China would no longer be a source of the global economic imbalances that
contributed to the recent global financial crisis and great recession.
Paperback]
Nicholas R. Lardy
Book Description
Publication Date: January 15, 2012
The global financial crisis and ensuing economic downturn has raised many
questions concerning the future of global economic growth. Prior to the
financial crisis, global growth was characterized by growing imbalances,
reflected primarily in large trade surpluses in China, Japan, Germany, and
the oil exporting countries and rapidly growing deficits, primarily in the
United States. The global crisis raises the question of whether the previous
growth model of low consumption, high saving countries such as China is
obsolete. Although a strong and rapid policy response beginning in the early
fall of 2008 made China the first globally significant economy to come off
the bottom and begin to grow more rapidly, critics charged that China's
recovery was based on the old growth model, relying primarily on burgeoning
investment in the short run and the expectation of a revival of expanding
net exports once global recovery gained traction. Critics, however, argued
that as government-financed investment inevitably tapered off, the
likelihood was that global recovery would not be sufficiently strong for
China's exports to resume their former role as a major contributor to China'
s economic expansion. The prospect, in the eyes of these critics, is that
China's growth will inevitably falter. This study examines China's response
to the global crisis, the prospects for altering the model of economic
growth that dominated the first decade of this century, and the implications
for the United States and the global economy of successful Chinese
rebalancing. On the first it analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of China'
s stimulus program. On the second it analyzes the nature of origins of the
imbalances in China's economy and the array of policy options that the
government has to transition to more consumption-driven growth. On the third
successful rebalancing would mean that more rapid growth of consumption
would offset the drag on growth from a shrinkage of China's external surplus
. Successful rebalancing would mean China would no longer be a source of
financing for any ongoing US external deficit. From a global perspective
China would no longer be a source of the global economic imbalances that
contributed to the recent global financial crisis and great recession.