奥本预测完整版zt# EB23 - 劳工卡
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EB-2 and EB-3 China.
Recently, number usage for EB-3 China has exploded due to the EB-3 downgrade
effect that Charlie has been expecting. Although anticipated, there was no
advance warning as to when this demand would materialize, to what extent, or
for how long. Demand for EB-3 China numbers exceeded 400 in March alone. EB
-2 China spiked to 850 in March. April demand in both categories is expected
to be at least on par with March demand, and may possibly exceed it. As a
result, it would most likely be necessary to retrogress EB-2 and EB-3 China
in June in an effort to hold number use within the annual limit.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Immigrant Visa Processing Changes – EB2/3 India moves forward; EB2/3 China
retrogression expected – Visa Office on Priority Dates, Demand, and
Predictions
In our continuing series of reports, Charles (“Charlie”) Oppenheim, Chief
of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, shares
his most recent analysis of current trends and future projections for the
various immigrant preference categories with AILA (the American Immigration
Lawyers’ Association).
Below are highlights from the most recent “check-in with Charlie” (April
13, 2016), reflecting his analysis of current trends and future projections
for the various immigrant preference categories.
This month, Charlie examines the final action date movements in the May 2016
Visa Bulletin and his analysis of current trends and future projections for
the various immigrant preference categories.
Family-Based Projections
Because most family-based demand is generated at overseas posts, Charlie has
greater visibility into those categories and is able to move the final
action dates more consistently than the employment-based categories, which
has a high percentage of USCIS-based (adjustment of status) filings. As a
result, dramatic fluctuations in the family-based categories tend to be rare
and typically occur only when there is a surge in family-based applicants
responding to the agent of choice letter and becoming documentarily
qualified.
As noted in the May Visa Bulletin, the final action dates for FB-4 China and
India will remain at July 22, 2003, consistent with the final action date
for FB-4 Worldwide. However, we can expect to see changes soon due to an
increase in demand in both of these categories in recent months. The FB-4
India final action date will likely retrogress, possibly as early as June.
It may also be necessary to hold or retrogress the FB-4 China final action
date in late summer.
New Final Action Date for EB-4 and Certain Religious Workers (SR) Preference
Categories
In May, a final action date of January 1, 2010 will be imposed for EB-4 and
certain religious workers from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. The
imposition of a final action date for these countries in these categories is
primarily attributable to a spike in demand for adjustment of status over
the past two months for Special Immigrant Juvenile (SIJS) applicants. As
noted in the Bulletin, any forward movement in these categories this fiscal
year is unlikely. Charlie advises that the per country limit for this
category has already been reached for these countries for this fiscal year.
Given EB-4 Worldwide demand, it is unlikely that there will be any
additional “otherwise unused numbers” to allocate to these countries.
Similarly, it is extremely likely that EB-4 India and Mexico will also
become oversubscribed at some point during the summer months.
EB-5 China.
Although demand in this category is increasing, I-526 petitions are being
acted upon more quickly so the final action date may continue to advance
slowly. Charlie has good visibility into demand in this category since most
of these cases are at the NVC, although they are becoming documentarily
qualified at their own pace.
EB-2 and EB-3 Philippines.
EB-2 Philippines remains current and Charlie expects it to remain so for the
foreseeable future.
With regard to EB-3 Philippines, Charlie expects the final action date to
continue to advance a few months at a time, consistent with movement over
the past few months. He does not foresee it returning to the Worldwide final
action date this fiscal year.
There is significant pent up demand in this category and given the greater
level of visibility into it, Charlie is able to more the final action date
consistently. Currently, the Texas Service Center has more than 1,600 EB-3
Philippines cases in the pending demand file and the Nebraska Service Center
has more than 1,200. Demand at the U.S. Consulate in Manila is about half
of that at USCIS. Charlie hopes that the EB-3 Philippines final action date
will advance as far as mid-2010 by the end of this fiscal year.
EB-2 and EB-3 China.
Recently, number usage for EB-3 China has exploded due to the EB-3 downgrade
effect that Charlie has been expecting. Although anticipated, there was no
advance warning as to when this demand would materialize, to what extent, or
for how long. Demand for EB-3 China numbers exceeded 400 in March alone. EB
-2 China spiked to 850 in March. April demand in both categories is expected
to be at least on par with March demand, and may possibly exceed it. As a
result, it would most likely be necessary to retrogress EB-2 and EB-3 China
in June in an effort to hold number use within the annual limit.
EB-1 Demand and Impact to Other Categories.
EB-1 demand from USCIS increased almost 100 percent from February (2,500+)
to March (5,000+) which reflects more than 95 percent of the EB-1 Worldwide
demand. This spike leaves fewer numbers to potentially spill down to other
categories, which will impact EB-2 final action dates. Members should expect
that the EB categories that typically rely on unused EB-1 numbers, such as
EB-2 India, will be impacted. It remains to be seen whether a cut-off date
will need to be established for any EB-1 countries this fiscal year.
India Employment-Based Final Action Dates.
The final action date for EB-2 India will advance modestly, from November 8,
2008 in April to November 22, 2008 in May. Similarly, EB-3 India will creep
forward from August 8, 2004 in April to September 1, 2004 in May. EB-3
demand, after the initial allocation of numbers, has been increasing by 100
month over month from January to February and February to March.
A number of factors make it difficult for Charlie to accurately predict
movement in these categories. Increased EB-1 usage negatively impacts the
supply of available visas for EB-2 India, and upgrades are currently driving
EB-2 India demand. As a result of these two factors, there may be fewer
numbers available to EB-2 India than previously expected.
When USCIS requests an EB-2 number in an upgrade case, it also asks that the
previously requested EB-3 number be cancelled. Charlie has no visibility
into EB-2 upgrade demand until USCIS completes adjudication of the I-485,
requests an EB-2 number, and cancels the EB-3 number. This lack of
visibility can potentially result in unexpected and dramatic changes in the
EB-2 India final action date, as well as other employment-based preference
categories.
Recently, number usage for EB-3 China has exploded due to the EB-3 downgrade
effect that Charlie has been expecting. Although anticipated, there was no
advance warning as to when this demand would materialize, to what extent, or
for how long. Demand for EB-3 China numbers exceeded 400 in March alone. EB
-2 China spiked to 850 in March. April demand in both categories is expected
to be at least on par with March demand, and may possibly exceed it. As a
result, it would most likely be necessary to retrogress EB-2 and EB-3 China
in June in an effort to hold number use within the annual limit.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Immigrant Visa Processing Changes – EB2/3 India moves forward; EB2/3 China
retrogression expected – Visa Office on Priority Dates, Demand, and
Predictions
In our continuing series of reports, Charles (“Charlie”) Oppenheim, Chief
of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, shares
his most recent analysis of current trends and future projections for the
various immigrant preference categories with AILA (the American Immigration
Lawyers’ Association).
Below are highlights from the most recent “check-in with Charlie” (April
13, 2016), reflecting his analysis of current trends and future projections
for the various immigrant preference categories.
This month, Charlie examines the final action date movements in the May 2016
Visa Bulletin and his analysis of current trends and future projections for
the various immigrant preference categories.
Family-Based Projections
Because most family-based demand is generated at overseas posts, Charlie has
greater visibility into those categories and is able to move the final
action dates more consistently than the employment-based categories, which
has a high percentage of USCIS-based (adjustment of status) filings. As a
result, dramatic fluctuations in the family-based categories tend to be rare
and typically occur only when there is a surge in family-based applicants
responding to the agent of choice letter and becoming documentarily
qualified.
As noted in the May Visa Bulletin, the final action dates for FB-4 China and
India will remain at July 22, 2003, consistent with the final action date
for FB-4 Worldwide. However, we can expect to see changes soon due to an
increase in demand in both of these categories in recent months. The FB-4
India final action date will likely retrogress, possibly as early as June.
It may also be necessary to hold or retrogress the FB-4 China final action
date in late summer.
New Final Action Date for EB-4 and Certain Religious Workers (SR) Preference
Categories
In May, a final action date of January 1, 2010 will be imposed for EB-4 and
certain religious workers from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. The
imposition of a final action date for these countries in these categories is
primarily attributable to a spike in demand for adjustment of status over
the past two months for Special Immigrant Juvenile (SIJS) applicants. As
noted in the Bulletin, any forward movement in these categories this fiscal
year is unlikely. Charlie advises that the per country limit for this
category has already been reached for these countries for this fiscal year.
Given EB-4 Worldwide demand, it is unlikely that there will be any
additional “otherwise unused numbers” to allocate to these countries.
Similarly, it is extremely likely that EB-4 India and Mexico will also
become oversubscribed at some point during the summer months.
EB-5 China.
Although demand in this category is increasing, I-526 petitions are being
acted upon more quickly so the final action date may continue to advance
slowly. Charlie has good visibility into demand in this category since most
of these cases are at the NVC, although they are becoming documentarily
qualified at their own pace.
EB-2 and EB-3 Philippines.
EB-2 Philippines remains current and Charlie expects it to remain so for the
foreseeable future.
With regard to EB-3 Philippines, Charlie expects the final action date to
continue to advance a few months at a time, consistent with movement over
the past few months. He does not foresee it returning to the Worldwide final
action date this fiscal year.
There is significant pent up demand in this category and given the greater
level of visibility into it, Charlie is able to more the final action date
consistently. Currently, the Texas Service Center has more than 1,600 EB-3
Philippines cases in the pending demand file and the Nebraska Service Center
has more than 1,200. Demand at the U.S. Consulate in Manila is about half
of that at USCIS. Charlie hopes that the EB-3 Philippines final action date
will advance as far as mid-2010 by the end of this fiscal year.
EB-2 and EB-3 China.
Recently, number usage for EB-3 China has exploded due to the EB-3 downgrade
effect that Charlie has been expecting. Although anticipated, there was no
advance warning as to when this demand would materialize, to what extent, or
for how long. Demand for EB-3 China numbers exceeded 400 in March alone. EB
-2 China spiked to 850 in March. April demand in both categories is expected
to be at least on par with March demand, and may possibly exceed it. As a
result, it would most likely be necessary to retrogress EB-2 and EB-3 China
in June in an effort to hold number use within the annual limit.
EB-1 Demand and Impact to Other Categories.
EB-1 demand from USCIS increased almost 100 percent from February (2,500+)
to March (5,000+) which reflects more than 95 percent of the EB-1 Worldwide
demand. This spike leaves fewer numbers to potentially spill down to other
categories, which will impact EB-2 final action dates. Members should expect
that the EB categories that typically rely on unused EB-1 numbers, such as
EB-2 India, will be impacted. It remains to be seen whether a cut-off date
will need to be established for any EB-1 countries this fiscal year.
India Employment-Based Final Action Dates.
The final action date for EB-2 India will advance modestly, from November 8,
2008 in April to November 22, 2008 in May. Similarly, EB-3 India will creep
forward from August 8, 2004 in April to September 1, 2004 in May. EB-3
demand, after the initial allocation of numbers, has been increasing by 100
month over month from January to February and February to March.
A number of factors make it difficult for Charlie to accurately predict
movement in these categories. Increased EB-1 usage negatively impacts the
supply of available visas for EB-2 India, and upgrades are currently driving
EB-2 India demand. As a result of these two factors, there may be fewer
numbers available to EB-2 India than previously expected.
When USCIS requests an EB-2 number in an upgrade case, it also asks that the
previously requested EB-3 number be cancelled. Charlie has no visibility
into EB-2 upgrade demand until USCIS completes adjudication of the I-485,
requests an EB-2 number, and cancels the EB-3 number. This lack of
visibility can potentially result in unexpected and dramatic changes in the
EB-2 India final action date, as well as other employment-based preference
categories.
