在边缘 by 许知远 年轻时,总希望获得成功。 要一举成名天下知,要夜夜抱得美人归,要塑造历史的进程。 总觉得外界对自己的承认不够,总觉得终有一日要写出轰动所有人的作品,总在重复 Thomas Brown的名言“雄心勃勃已为时过晚,历史的转变早已形成”。 一年来,我感觉得到内心轻微的变化。这一切到底有这么重要吗,它们真的对我构成致 命的吸引吗?或许愈发认识到自己的局限性,或许是剑桥的安静消磨了意志,或许是我 少年义气的暂时退隐,我越来越觉得,作为一个边缘人有什么不好。边缘令人保持敏感 ,保持好奇心,而中央常常意味着教条、自满。 我的一个考古学家的朋友,几年前在甘肃现场挖掘时,看到了重叠的墓葬,最下层是上 万年前,中间是汉代,而上面则是现代世界。所有的命运,都叠加在这么一个狭小的空 间,所有的故事都变成了残垣断瓦。我们在达尔文学院的酒吧里,谈起这些,和我们这 一代人的命运。对我来说,酒吧里的喧闹突然消失了,一股悲哀从心头涌出。随着悲哀 而出的是自由与解放,那些个人焦虑与烦恼是多么不值一提。 听起来,这像是《读者文摘》的庸俗人生感悟,或许也是这个听多了舒曼的傍晚的滥情 。但的确一种越来越显
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【 以下文字转载自 Statistics 讨论区 】 发信人: hmsam (aha), 信区: Statistics 标 题: Baozi award: event in survival analysis 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jun 2 12:51:14 2011, 美东) Project background: Educational research,measurement in student's achievement. We are trying to use life table method to follow students' achievement along the time to identify when they achieved a certain level. The problem is this level is defined by the different tests, although the name of test are the same, the content are different from a grade (eg. grade 3) to another grade (grade 4). And the achievement levels are defined by different cut scores for different grades. And the tests are not vertically linked across years and grades. i.e., the performance levels are not comparable across grades (eg. grade 4 and 5) for a student.So the event is very different from those in medical research in which death/diseases are defined by the same standards along the time. My question is that life table/survival analysis is suitable for our study? Any guidance or references are greatly appreciated.