The Coin Analyst: 2014 Baseball Commemorative Coins Market Q & A
By Louis Golino on April 7, 2014 11:49 AM
1. How much are the 2014 Baseball Commemorative Coins graded at the
Baltimore Whitman Expo last week selling for? Will these coins hold their
premiums?
In the first few days after the Baltimore Whitman expo, coins with special
show labels (“Opening Day Releases” for NGC and “First Pitch Baltimore”
for PCGS) began to appear for sale on e-Bay. Prices for the gold MS and PF-
70 coins quickly rose from about $3500-4,000 for a set to that much for each
coin, and even $5,000 for a PCGS PF70 on April 1. The silver and clad coins
have been going for even higher percentages over issue price with dollars
graded 70 bringing from $400-500 to $700 or more each and top-graded clad
coins bringing about the same amount, even for PF70 halves, which are likely
to end up being quite common in a couple months. Those prices will most
surely come down.
dollar1 The Coin Analyst: 2014 Baseball Commemorative Coins Market Q & ASome
people point to the value of the Chicago ANA-pedigreed Buffalo reverse
proof gold coins, which have mostly held their value, as an example of how
much buyers will pay for special pedigree coins, but in that case the
premium over gold content was a fraction of what the Baltimore coins have
been bringing.
The key factor driving these extremely high premiums seems to be the very
small number of coins sold at the show (400 for the gold), and then only
some portion of those coins were graded at the show or submitted for special
show labels. That is especially true of the gold, which had a 2-coin per
person limit at the show.
As of April 1 the PCGS web site* lists the following population data for the
“First Pitch Baltimore” coins: just 75 $5 gold uncirculated coins graded,
of which 61 got 70’s and 14 69’s. For the proof gold it has 73 total of
which 59 graded 70 and 14 69, a similar 80-20 split between 70 and 69.
For the mint state silver dollar of 212 graded by the same date, 163 got 70
’s and 48 got 69’s. And for the half dollars of 178 graded, 98 received 70
and 80 69, a much lower proportion than with the gold and silver.
Finally, in terms of proofs coins of 299 dollars graded 213 received 70 and
86 received 70, and 172 clad proof halves were submitted, but no breakdown
is available yet. I expect a higher proportion of the clad proof halves to
receive 70’s than the uncirculated halves, but that still does not in my
view justify paying prices such as $1200 for MS70�äs, as is the
case now.
These numbers show how scarce the Baltimore label coins are, but I think
prices peaked early and do not have further upside in my view. The data also
show a clear trend of higher-than-usual percentages of coins receiving 70
grades, as I said industry insiders expected in my previous analysis. The
ratios will change as more coins from the show are graded, but I expect the
basic trend to hold. Secondary buyers of these graded coins would be well-
advised to wait to see where prices settle esp. if 70’s continue to appear
in such high numbers.
2. How much are regular BHOF coins in original government packaging selling
for? What is the outlook for prices of those coins?
The raw gold coins started off at the $550-600 level and then rose each day
or two by about $100, reaching an average of $700-750 in early April, and as
much as $860 on April 1 (for a pre-sale). A lot of collectors were unable
to order gold coins because of the quick sell-out and web site issues or
because they were at work then and so forth, and many of them will buy in
the aftermarket, which should sustain high premiums. Those will at some
point settle down, but depending on demand, they may rise again later.
baseballfire The Coin Analyst: 2014 Baseball Commemorative Coins Market Q &
AAuctions for pre-sales of the dollars started off around $100 per coin, or
double issue price, but are now in the $75-80 range. The clad halves have
lately been going for $35-40. It is the examples graded at Baltimore that
are bringing very high premiums, and it will be interesting how much coins
not graded at the show bring.
With many orders getting ready to ship soon from the Mint (see below),
prices will probably come down for raw coins too, but I expect the gold
coins in particular to continue to do well compared to issue price.
3. Does the fact that the gold uncirculated version will have the lowest
mintage of the entire set matter especially given that most people think the
proofs look nicer?
On April 1 the Mint revised the sales data from the previous day that
included 9,000 orders over the 50K maximum mintage, which are the wait
listed orders, and gave the proof a 32,000 total, and the uncirculated 18,
000, making it the lowest mintage of this set and the series key. Of course
there are much lower mintage gold commemoratives like the 1997 Jackie
Robinson and 2013 Five Star Generals coins. But neither of them were the
subject of such intense media interest, or had the benefit of being a first
type of U.S. Mint coin, so demand for the BHOF coins will be much higher.
People always prefer the look of proofs, even more so with these coins.
There was a lively debate online about which gold coin would be more
valuable, and the early view was the proof because it looks better and would
therefore be in higher demand, but once people realized there were only
about half as many uncs, views started to shift in its favor. Over the long-
term I expect the uncirculated coin to continue to outpace the proof in
price, but that will take time to develop, and for now expect prices of both
gold versions to be similar.
4. Do you expect a sell-out of the silver and clad versions?
I do think the silver coins will reach a sell-out, though when is hard to
say. With the quick sell-out of the gold, sales of the other coins will
likely pick up. I would not be surprised to see the silver dollars sell out
within about two weeks given the quick pace of sales in the past week with
almost 60% of the maximum 400,000 mintage purchased during the first five
days. Demand will determine the breakdown between the proof and circulated
versions, as with the gold coins.
Shipping update: After a few days marked by conflicting reports on when
coins would begin shipping, those who ordered during the first 90 minutes or
so online have seen all or most of their coin orders marked as “in stock
and ready to ship.” Their credit cards were also authorized for the cost of
those orders, which should ship in the next couple days.
