Mid-term Very Bullish - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

s*n2008-12-07 08:12

1 楼

There is a lot to explain but I find myself little time to write too much
in this beautiful place.
Put it simple:
1. First wave of deleveraging is almost over. Although it's hard to say
if there will be a second wave, we should be safe in the next few months.
2. Fed changed their strategy. I finally figured out what happened in the
bond market. Now Fed want to control the long-term interest rate, and
print money directly. This comes along with lower interest rate from
all major central banks.
3.

T*t2008-12-07 08:12

2 楼

为什么print money directly反而会导致30y T rate变低？
FED不是想印就能印的（至少原则上是不能的），否则美元怎么能代替黄金呢？

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】

: There is a lot to explain but I find myself little time to write too much
: in this beautiful place.
: Put it simple:
: 1. First wave of deleveraging is almost over. Although it's hard to say
: if there will be a second wave, we should be safe in the next few months.
: 2. Fed changed their strategy. I finally figured out what happened in the
: bond market. Now Fed want to control the long-term interest rate, and
: print money directly. This comes along with lower interest rate from
: all major central banks.
: 3.

S*n2008-12-07 08:12

3 楼

Greaaaaaaaat. Let them pump SPX to 1050 or dump SRS to around 80.
Enjoy the paradise!

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】

: There is a lot to explain but I find myself little time to write too much
: in this beautiful place.
: Put it simple:
: 1. First wave of deleveraging is almost over. Although it's hard to say
: if there will be a second wave, we should be safe in the next few months.
: 2. Fed changed their strategy. I finally figured out what happened in the
: bond market. Now Fed want to control the long-term interest rate, and
: print money directly. This comes along with lower interest rate from
: all major central banks.
: 3.

h*e2008-12-07 08:12

4 楼

加勒比是啥地方?! 竟能把熊变成牛.
不过俺还是觉得前景不明.

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】

: There is a lot to explain but I find myself little time to write too much
: in this beautiful place.
: Put it simple:
: 1. First wave of deleveraging is almost over. Although it's hard to say
: if there will be a second wave, we should be safe in the next few months.
: 2. Fed changed their strategy. I finally figured out what happened in the
: bond market. Now Fed want to control the long-term interest rate, and
: print money directly. This comes along with lower interest rate from
: all major central banks.
: 3.

t*o2008-12-07 08:12

5 楼

they can buy long term treasury bonds to supress the yield.
But I am suspicious about "midterm bull". No sign shows that market is out
of a bear trend, even in this premarket rally.
and December isn't a good indicator of trend anyway.
Fundamental wise, it seems that printing money is what keeps everything
under control. But given the job loss number and the momentum of it, it's
hard to believe that market has the luck to pick up in next half year. So
where is the bull?

【在 T*******t 的大作中提到】

:
: 为什么print money directly反而会导致30y T rate变低？
: FED不是想印就能印的（至少原则上是不能的），否则美元怎么能代替黄金呢？

c*o2008-12-07 08:12

6 楼

俺踏空了....

u*o2008-12-07 08:12

7 楼

俺这一个月白忙活了

【在 c****o 的大作中提到】

: 俺踏空了....

s*n2008-12-07 08:12

8 楼

This is still valid. LOL.

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】

: There is a lot to explain but I find myself little time to write too much
: in this beautiful place.
: Put it simple:
: 1. First wave of deleveraging is almost over. Although it's hard to say
: if there will be a second wave, we should be safe in the next few months.
: 2. Fed changed their strategy. I finally figured out what happened in the
: bond market. Now Fed want to control the long-term interest rate, and
: print money directly. This comes along with lower interest rate from
: all major central banks.
: 3.

i*l2008-12-07 08:12

9 楼

我老看不了大侠那么远。不过thanks for sharing

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】

: There is a lot to explain but I find myself little time to write too much
: in this beautiful place.
: Put it simple:
: 1. First wave of deleveraging is almost over. Although it's hard to say
: if there will be a second wave, we should be safe in the next few months.
: 2. Fed changed their strategy. I finally figured out what happened in the
: bond market. Now Fed want to control the long-term interest rate, and
: print money directly. This comes along with lower interest rate from
: all major central banks.
: 3.