我这么想对吗？ - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

s*z2009-01-02 08:01

1 楼

我在想把钱转到国内做长期投资，有以下几个理由，不知道想的对不对，大家帮我看看。
1 国内对于投资所得不征税，但是在美国至少是15%
2 人民币自身还有升值的空间，obama肯定是要使劲印钱，美国还得贬值
3 可以保护你的资产，假设你在美国有一个车祸，large medical bill，之类的，如果
你的财产在国内，不就被保护住了？
4 毕竟中国是发展中国家，还有不少发展的空间，所以理论上股票上升的空间比较大。
当然坏处是，不太容易liquidate，然后国内市场比较volatile。
不知道大家能不能帮我分析一下？
多谢

W*i2009-01-02 08:01

2 楼

如果有10年不会动用的，拿出一部分，做国内长期投资，还是可以的。
不过你的理由3不完全成立，除非你车祸后不想在美国继续呆下去，否则你想一直过着
破产的生活？保险买到30或50万，多花不了几个钱，这个别省了。

看。

【在 s********z 的大作中提到】

: 我在想把钱转到国内做长期投资，有以下几个理由，不知道想的对不对，大家帮我看看。
: 1 国内对于投资所得不征税，但是在美国至少是15%
: 2 人民币自身还有升值的空间，obama肯定是要使劲印钱，美国还得贬值
: 3 可以保护你的资产，假设你在美国有一个车祸，large medical bill，之类的，如果
: 你的财产在国内，不就被保护住了？
: 4 毕竟中国是发展中国家，还有不少发展的空间，所以理论上股票上升的空间比较大。
: 当然坏处是，不太容易liquidate，然后国内市场比较volatile。
: 不知道大家能不能帮我分析一下？
: 多谢

p*r2009-01-02 08:01

3 楼

HEHE..
问题是投啥, 国内的闲钱大把的.
中国政府都买美国证券.
RMB短期内升的话, 中国经济可能更糟糕.
国内CAPITAL GAIN 不交税, 真的,假的.

m*u2009-01-02 08:01

4 楼

Agree with Wohui. Your reasons 1 to 3 do not hold. As to the tax, I believe
this is always secondary to profit. The first thing is you got to make
profit, then consider tax. China does not impose capital gain tax right now,
but things can change quickly in China, and the Chinese regulators are not
rational from time to time. Use an extreme example, China does not impose
property tax now, so is that a good reason to buy house/apartment in China?

看。

【在 s********z 的大作中提到】

: 我在想把钱转到国内做长期投资，有以下几个理由，不知道想的对不对，大家帮我看看。
: 1 国内对于投资所得不征税，但是在美国至少是15%
: 2 人民币自身还有升值的空间，obama肯定是要使劲印钱，美国还得贬值
: 3 可以保护你的资产，假设你在美国有一个车祸，large medical bill，之类的，如果
: 你的财产在国内，不就被保护住了？
: 4 毕竟中国是发展中国家，还有不少发展的空间，所以理论上股票上升的空间比较大。
: 当然坏处是，不太容易liquidate，然后国内市场比较volatile。
: 不知道大家能不能帮我分析一下？
: 多谢

s*n2009-01-02 08:01

5 楼

“中国政府都买美国证券.” has nothing to do with investment in China.
俺就不明白怎么那么多人不懂得外汇储备投资的目的和作用，总是和国家内部投
资乱搅和。这两个东西根本就没有任何互换性。

【在 p*****r 的大作中提到】

: HEHE..
: 问题是投啥, 国内的闲钱大把的.
: 中国政府都买美国证券.
: RMB短期内升的话, 中国经济可能更糟糕.
: 国内CAPITAL GAIN 不交税, 真的,假的.

s*n2009-01-02 08:01

6 楼

俺支持你，你的所有理由都成立。
政策变化的事情，猜来猜去的没意义。如果国家开始挣所得税，也肯定是股市
欣欣向荣一段时间以后。而且肯定是慢慢来，到时候如果你不想被征税，有的
是机会撤出。美国的政策我也没看出怎么稳定来。
美元长期贬值是肯定的。中国未来的发展是肯定的。

看。

【在 s********z 的大作中提到】

: 我在想把钱转到国内做长期投资，有以下几个理由，不知道想的对不对，大家帮我看看。
: 1 国内对于投资所得不征税，但是在美国至少是15%
: 2 人民币自身还有升值的空间，obama肯定是要使劲印钱，美国还得贬值
: 3 可以保护你的资产，假设你在美国有一个车祸，large medical bill，之类的，如果
: 你的财产在国内，不就被保护住了？
: 4 毕竟中国是发展中国家，还有不少发展的空间，所以理论上股票上升的空间比较大。
: 当然坏处是，不太容易liquidate，然后国内市场比较volatile。
: 不知道大家能不能帮我分析一下？
: 多谢

b*e2009-01-02 08:01

7 楼

1,3,4都同意
2,中国政府会让人民币乱升值?
我认为有责任的政府不会让本国货币升值贬值太多的
美国和中国都应该是有责任的政府
另外,美国有美国的好处,就是政策持续性和法律制度好

看。

【在 s********z 的大作中提到】

: 我在想把钱转到国内做长期投资，有以下几个理由，不知道想的对不对，大家帮我看看。
: 1 国内对于投资所得不征税，但是在美国至少是15%
: 2 人民币自身还有升值的空间，obama肯定是要使劲印钱，美国还得贬值
: 3 可以保护你的资产，假设你在美国有一个车祸，large medical bill，之类的，如果
: 你的财产在国内，不就被保护住了？
: 4 毕竟中国是发展中国家，还有不少发展的空间，所以理论上股票上升的空间比较大。
: 当然坏处是，不太容易liquidate，然后国内市场比较volatile。
: 不知道大家能不能帮我分析一下？
: 多谢

b*e2009-01-02 08:01

8 楼

另外，从长期来讲
人民币升值对大陆企业是负面的，对大陆经济也是负面的
如果投资股票，这足以抵消人民币本身的升值

【在 b****e 的大作中提到】

: 1,3,4都同意
: 2,中国政府会让人民币乱升值?
: 我认为有责任的政府不会让本国货币升值贬值太多的
: 美国和中国都应该是有责任的政府
: 另外,美国有美国的好处,就是政策持续性和法律制度好
:
: 看。

s*x2009-01-02 08:01

9 楼

i currently invest in china stock market
1) china stock market is VERY VERY volatile.
it is very common to see daily swing 5%.
2) they do not have capital gain tax, instead you pay 0.1% 印花税 every time
you sell. so if you do not trade often, tax is negligible.
3) i believe china market is good for long term investment now.

s*n2009-01-02 08:01

10 楼

US government never knows what responsibility is.
Chinese government should let RMB appreciate. It's not a long term
solution to peg RMB to USD. A necessary condition to decouple Chinese
economy and US economy is to de-peg RMB from USD. Otherwise, China
will never turn into a leader from a follower. But I am not suggesting
RMB start floating overnight. That would be a desaster. However,
over time, Chinese government will have to do that, even if it comes
with a sacrifice of short-term growth spe

【在 b****e 的大作中提到】

: 1,3,4都同意
: 2,中国政府会让人民币乱升值?
: 我认为有责任的政府不会让本国货币升值贬值太多的
: 美国和中国都应该是有责任的政府
: 另外,美国有美国的好处,就是政策持续性和法律制度好
:
: 看。

b*e2009-01-02 08:01

11 楼

曹操不称帝是有原因的

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】

: US government never knows what responsibility is.
: Chinese government should let RMB appreciate. It's not a long term
: solution to peg RMB to USD. A necessary condition to decouple Chinese
: economy and US economy is to de-peg RMB from USD. Otherwise, China
: will never turn into a leader from a follower. But I am not suggesting
: RMB start floating overnight. That would be a desaster. However,
: over time, Chinese government will have to do that, even if it comes
: with a sacrifice of short-term growth spe

s*z2009-01-02 08:01

12 楼

Thanks for the inputs, but i have disagree with you on a few points.
First of all, tax may be secondary to profit for short term speculation, for
the long term investment, tax is the biggest cost.
Secondly, I do not have control over the government regulation, so if they
don't impose tax now, it works great for me. By the same token, will the
high likelihood of Obama imposing high tax prevent you from investing?
Thirdly, as for your real estate analogy, it makes sense, but tax isn't the
only re

【在 m*****u 的大作中提到】

: Agree with Wohui. Your reasons 1 to 3 do not hold. As to the tax, I believe
: this is always secondary to profit. The first thing is you got to make
: profit, then consider tax. China does not impose capital gain tax right now,
: but things can change quickly in China, and the Chinese regulators are not
: rational from time to time. Use an extreme example, China does not impose
: property tax now, so is that a good reason to buy house/apartment in China?
:
: 看。

s*z2009-01-02 08:01

13 楼

什么样的升值叫乱升值？
过去几年20%的升值，算不算乱升值？
我觉得长远美国会衰退，中国会想办法减少出口在经济里的比重，这样肯定会导致人民
币相对美元升值阿。

【在 b****e 的大作中提到】

: 1,3,4都同意
: 2,中国政府会让人民币乱升值?
: 我认为有责任的政府不会让本国货币升值贬值太多的
: 美国和中国都应该是有责任的政府
: 另外,美国有美国的好处,就是政策持续性和法律制度好
:
: 看。

s*z2009-01-02 08:01

14 楼

为什么长期来讲人民币升值会对中国经济有负面影响呢？
我觉像中国现在过分依靠出口的经济是不健康的，我觉得国家会想办法扩大内需，减少
对国外经济的依赖。
长期来讲，人民币升值有助于中国的国家财富，提高中国人的购买力，为什么不好呢？

【在 b****e 的大作中提到】

: 另外，从长期来讲
: 人民币升值对大陆企业是负面的，对大陆经济也是负面的
: 如果投资股票，这足以抵消人民币本身的升值

u*d2009-01-02 08:01

15 楼

because at present, China is only able to produce products that solely
compete on price. Until one day when Chinese enterprises developed their own
differentiators - that they do not rely on the low price to compete in the
international market, RMB is detinated to carry low value. Otherwise, the
unemployment rate will be sky high.

【在 s********z 的大作中提到】

: 为什么长期来讲人民币升值会对中国经济有负面影响呢？
: 我觉像中国现在过分依靠出口的经济是不健康的，我觉得国家会想办法扩大内需，减少
: 对国外经济的依赖。
: 长期来讲，人民币升值有助于中国的国家财富，提高中国人的购买力，为什么不好呢？

s*z2009-01-02 08:01

16 楼

Good points.
I am wondering if there is such thing as manufacture monopoly. Can Chinese
manufacturers kill the manufacturing in developed countries and have their
own plants at countries where labor is even cheaper than China? Then, they
might have some pricing power.
Will a appreciated RMB paradoxically drive Chinese manufacturers away from
low value, labor intensive manufacturing to valued-added innovative
production? I think the current economic downturn will kill most of small
manufacture

【在 u****d 的大作中提到】

: because at present, China is only able to produce products that solely
: compete on price. Until one day when Chinese enterprises developed their own
: differentiators - that they do not rely on the low price to compete in the
: international market, RMB is detinated to carry low value. Otherwise, the
: unemployment rate will be sky high.

F*t2009-01-02 08:01

17 楼

劳动密集型向高科技转型，同时扩大内需，timing 的好了，中国经济又上新台阶，中
间空挡了，天下大乱。

Chinese
they

【在 s********z 的大作中提到】

: Good points.
: I am wondering if there is such thing as manufacture monopoly. Can Chinese
: manufacturers kill the manufacturing in developed countries and have their
: own plants at countries where labor is even cheaper than China? Then, they
: might have some pricing power.
: Will a appreciated RMB paradoxically drive Chinese manufacturers away from
: low value, labor intensive manufacturing to valued-added innovative
: production? I think the current economic downturn will kill most of small
: manufacture

u*d2009-01-02 08:01

18 楼

You have no idea how far away Chinese manufacturers are behind their foreign
rivals. All Chinese engineers with foreign companies (in China) are
application engineers. All design work and process control documents are
confidential to Chinese nationals. Even a second tier manufacturer such as
LG of Korea is miles ahead of its Chinese peers in terms of technology
development and capability of manufacturing key electronic/mechanic
components.
My guess is we still have at least 10~20 years gap to ca

【在 s********z 的大作中提到】

: Good points.
: I am wondering if there is such thing as manufacture monopoly. Can Chinese
: manufacturers kill the manufacturing in developed countries and have their
: own plants at countries where labor is even cheaper than China? Then, they
: might have some pricing power.
: Will a appreciated RMB paradoxically drive Chinese manufacturers away from
: low value, labor intensive manufacturing to valued-added innovative
: production? I think the current economic downturn will kill most of small
: manufacture

s*z2009-01-02 08:01

19 楼

thanks for the info.
It is frustrating. I am actually doing design work at a medical device
company, but anyways, is there any solution for this problem?
Chinese are the best at engineering graduate school in US and I do not think
I am in any way better than my former classmates who are in China, why? why
is China so far behind?

foreign
have

【在 u****d 的大作中提到】

: You have no idea how far away Chinese manufacturers are behind their foreign
: rivals. All Chinese engineers with foreign companies (in China) are
: application engineers. All design work and process control documents are
: confidential to Chinese nationals. Even a second tier manufacturer such as
: LG of Korea is miles ahead of its Chinese peers in terms of technology
: development and capability of manufacturing key electronic/mechanic
: components.
: My guess is we still have at least 10~20 years gap to ca

u*d2009-01-02 08:01

20 楼

This is too big a question for me. I think it just takes time. Also, China
governments (at all levels) paid too much attention to immediate GDP growth
(shortsighted), and spent too much energy and money on "infrastructure",
rather than nurturing a fair and growing domestic market which would
encourage businesses to build core compentencies through long term product
development strategies.

think
why

【在 s********z 的大作中提到】

: thanks for the info.
: It is frustrating. I am actually doing design work at a medical device
: company, but anyways, is there any solution for this problem?
: Chinese are the best at engineering graduate school in US and I do not think
: I am in any way better than my former classmates who are in China, why? why
: is China so far behind?
:
: foreign
: have

c*t2009-01-02 08:01

21 楼

除了第一条外其他都不对
2，人民币目前的问题不是将来能升值多少，而是将来能贬值多少。
3，前面已经有人讲过了
4，中国上升空间大没错，但好的企业基本都是在境外上市的。国内上市的除了大型国
企就是夕阳型产业公司。像样的有上升空间的公司反而没有几个。

s*n2009-01-02 08:01

22 楼

人民币目前的问题不是将来能升值多少，而是将来能贬值多少
why??

【在 c*********t 的大作中提到】

: 除了第一条外其他都不对
: 2，人民币目前的问题不是将来能升值多少，而是将来能贬值多少。
: 3，前面已经有人讲过了
: 4，中国上升空间大没错，但好的企业基本都是在境外上市的。国内上市的除了大型国
: 企就是夕阳型产业公司。像样的有上升空间的公司反而没有几个。

b*e2009-01-02 08:01

23 楼

货币汇率就是一个游戏。
商业社会的最重要的规则就是成本，你的成本越低，你就越是能卖，你就能赚钱。赚了
钱就能生存。生存了以后，一切什么朝阳产业等上层建筑都好办。相反，成本越高，就
越不能卖，就赚不了钱，就没法生存。另一方面，生意好了，聪明钱都会来投资设厂，
国内的生产就能起来，更有利于生存赚钱。
货币贬值的最重要效果就是成本降低。于是你就能从世界人民手中赚钱。如果把一个国
家想成是一个大家族，一个大家族如果能生产产品让其他人买了，自己的现金流是正的
没什么不好的。想致富，自己的运转当然重要，但是最重要的还是赚别人的钱。出口型
经济是有弊病，比如稳定性差等等，但是比起寅吃卯粮的进口型经济还是要好得多。美
国现在最根深蒂固的问题就是寅吃卯粮的问题。
货币贬值，表面看起来大家亏了，实际上是赚大发了。中国这十年的发展，很大的程度
归功于十几年前人民币的贬值。当然，货币大幅疯狂贬值的弊端也是人所共知的。
货币升值，贻害无穷。首先傻钱都来了，导致股价房价攀升，形成泡沫。泡沫的危害性
，想必通过这次金融危机大家都应该明白了（没明白的该打……）。其次，生产部门成
本上升，大家都不买本土货了，生产就慢慢

【在 s********z 的大作中提到】

: 为什么长期来讲人民币升值会对中国经济有负面影响呢？
: 我觉像中国现在过分依靠出口的经济是不健康的，我觉得国家会想办法扩大内需，减少
: 对国外经济的依赖。
: 长期来讲，人民币升值有助于中国的国家财富，提高中国人的购买力，为什么不好呢？

s*n2009-01-02 08:01

24 楼

Seems you still didn't learn how a bubble is built.
A bubble is built when people try to artificially keep imbalance between
economic units (could be countries, could be sectors, could be factories,
etc.) And you are turning it around saying trying to remove imbalance
will cause a bubble?
Come on, jump out those details and use some common sense. Do you really
think the nature will let imbalance going forever?

【在 b****e 的大作中提到】

: 货币汇率就是一个游戏。
: 商业社会的最重要的规则就是成本，你的成本越低，你就越是能卖，你就能赚钱。赚了
: 钱就能生存。生存了以后，一切什么朝阳产业等上层建筑都好办。相反，成本越高，就
: 越不能卖，就赚不了钱，就没法生存。另一方面，生意好了，聪明钱都会来投资设厂，
: 国内的生产就能起来，更有利于生存赚钱。
: 货币贬值的最重要效果就是成本降低。于是你就能从世界人民手中赚钱。如果把一个国
: 家想成是一个大家族，一个大家族如果能生产产品让其他人买了，自己的现金流是正的
: 没什么不好的。想致富，自己的运转当然重要，但是最重要的还是赚别人的钱。出口型
: 经济是有弊病，比如稳定性差等等，但是比起寅吃卯粮的进口型经济还是要好得多。美
: 国现在最根深蒂固的问题就是寅吃卯粮的问题。

b*e2009-01-02 08:01

25 楼

History told us that people don't learn from the history.
如果人民币升值，那么中国就走上了和日本八十年代末一模一样的轨道上。就这么简单
。如果贸易不平衡是吸毒，那么货币升值就是吞弹。

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】

: Seems you still didn't learn how a bubble is built.
: A bubble is built when people try to artificially keep imbalance between
: economic units (could be countries, could be sectors, could be factories,
: etc.) And you are turning it around saying trying to remove imbalance
: will cause a bubble?
: Come on, jump out those details and use some common sense. Do you really
: think the nature will let imbalance going forever?

b*e2009-01-02 08:01

26 楼

当然，贸易不平衡最后结果确实不怎么好
比如，天朝的鸦片战争，比如，日本的失去的二十年

【在 b****e 的大作中提到】

: History told us that people don't learn from the history.
: 如果人民币升值，那么中国就走上了和日本八十年代末一模一样的轨道上。就这么简单
: 。如果贸易不平衡是吸毒，那么货币升值就是吞弹。

l*n2009-01-02 08:01

27 楼

应该是没有铸币权的贸易不平衡

【在 b****e 的大作中提到】

: 当然，贸易不平衡最后结果确实不怎么好
: 比如，天朝的鸦片战争，比如，日本的失去的二十年

s*n2009-01-02 08:01

28 楼

Let me summarize your points:
1. how much money we make today is more important than independency in
the future.
2. China is in a situation either 吸毒 or 吞弹.
3. You are happy that your country lives around the end of production
chain, so that when US consumers stop shopping, Chinese workers stop
living.
Geez, if you were born 70 years earlier, I guess you must be happy to
let Japanese occupy China --- what's the point to fight a war?

【在 b****e 的大作中提到】

: History told us that people don't learn from the history.
: 如果人民币升值，那么中国就走上了和日本八十年代末一模一样的轨道上。就这么简单
: 。如果贸易不平衡是吸毒，那么货币升值就是吞弹。

b*e2009-01-02 08:01

29 楼

So, you think by making products that everybody in the world needs, and by
making money, China is more dependency than the US and the rest of the
world.
My point is if there is no better solution, then don't just use the proven
wrong one.
Ok, let's look at the food chain of biological world. Who is endangered and
who is not? Siberian Tiger, the tip of the pyramid, is almost extincted
while grass and other small animals at the bottom are the least endangered.
China and its citizens are in a much

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】

: Let me summarize your points:
: 1. how much money we make today is more important than independency in
: the future.
: 2. China is in a situation either 吸毒 or 吞弹.
: 3. You are happy that your country lives around the end of production
: chain, so that when US consumers stop shopping, Chinese workers stop
: living.
: Geez, if you were born 70 years earlier, I guess you must be happy to
: let Japanese occupy China --- what's the point to fight a war?

s*n2009-01-02 08:01

30 楼

After the Plaza Accord, USD/JPY drops 50% in 2 years. What caused problems
was not the direction, but the speed.

【在 b****e 的大作中提到】

: History told us that people don't learn from the history.
: 如果人民币升值，那么中国就走上了和日本八十年代末一模一样的轨道上。就这么简单
: 。如果贸易不平衡是吸毒，那么货币升值就是吞弹。

b*e2009-01-02 08:01

31 楼

如果这是你的理解，那你为什么要给中国人民落井下石呢？

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】

: After the Plaza Accord, USD/JPY drops 50% in 2 years. What caused problems
: was not the direction, but the speed.

u*d2009-01-02 08:01

32 楼

You are a noble person.
In my opinion, there is no quick cure to China's problems, no matter what.
The government and the society need to ackowledge the fact that China is
still a third world country (not even close to second world) and start
building a balanced and sustanable domestic market, not focusing on the
shining "GDP" numbers.
Too many people in China dream to get rich overnight (including many
government officials), and they shamelessly claim it as "initial capital
accumulation" (sin

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】

: Let me summarize your points:
: 1. how much money we make today is more important than independency in
: the future.
: 2. China is in a situation either 吸毒 or 吞弹.
: 3. You are happy that your country lives around the end of production
: chain, so that when US consumers stop shopping, Chinese workers stop
: living.
: Geez, if you were born 70 years earlier, I guess you must be happy to
: let Japanese occupy China --- what's the point to fight a war?

s*n2009-01-02 08:01

33 楼

Hehe, I am sorry. My bad. I should not try to discuss anything with
you in the first place. You win. I quit.

and

【在 b****e 的大作中提到】

: 如果这是你的理解，那你为什么要给中国人民落井下石呢？

b*e2009-01-02 08:01

34 楼

Everything was fine until you said I am a no patriot.

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】

: Hehe, I am sorry. My bad. I should not try to discuss anything with
: you in the first place. You win. I quit.
:
: and

a*e2009-01-02 08:01

35 楼

You are not a patriot
You are a no patriot
上面这两种语法是一回事儿么？

【在 b****e 的大作中提到】

: Everything was fine until you said I am a no patriot.

b*e2009-01-02 08:01

36 楼

不太清楚，英文没学好

【在 a**e 的大作中提到】

: You are not a patriot
: You are a no patriot
: 上面这两种语法是一回事儿么？

K*D2009-01-02 08:01

37 楼

The answer to you question has a slight tendancy to be racial.

think
why

【在 s********z 的大作中提到】

: thanks for the info.
: It is frustrating. I am actually doing design work at a medical device
: company, but anyways, is there any solution for this problem?
: Chinese are the best at engineering graduate school in US and I do not think
: I am in any way better than my former classmates who are in China, why? why
: is China so far behind?
:
: foreign
: have

s*n2009-01-02 08:01

38 楼

Maybe you are too sensitive, maybe I didn't express in an appropriate
way. This has nothing to do with if you are a patriot or not. I just
follow your logic and don't see a reason to fight an independence war.
Anyway, I quit.

【在 b****e 的大作中提到】

: Everything was fine until you said I am a no patriot.

d*z2009-01-02 08:01

39 楼

你对汇率的认识有点偏颇。
货币兑换是有成本的。在一个理想的经济世界，根本不应该有多种货币的存在。最近似
理想的世界应该是所有货币可以完全自由浮动。现实世界中汇率肯定不是完全自由的，
不但中国这样的半管治国家，就是在名义上的自由兑换国家也要受政府的控制和影响。
但最终还是经济规律起作用。要靠人为的超出自然范围的贬值促进出口不但会产生负面
效果，在长期也不可能维持在稳定状态，只能是事与愿违。
将汇率维持在过分低估的水平，出口虽然会相当大幅地增加，进口却会萎缩。持续外贸
不平衡对一个不拥有世界通用货币的自由兑换国家，必然有越来越大的币值调整压力，
央行很难有足够的资源长期对抗这种压力，最终会放弃努力。美国是唯一的例外。它有
理论上是无限的资源，即可以自由发放美元，只要对美元世界货币的信心不变。对顺差
国家，尤其是管制国家像中国，央行可以强制裁定本币作为出口贸易结算货币，理论上
可以长期容纳大的顺差。但这有三个主要问题。
一是低估本币会增加进口成本。而且低估的程度越大，进口成本增加造成的损害与刺激
出口的收益相比就越大。中国的出口产品多是大众消费品，而进口却多是本国缺少的
战略资源或产业升级

【在 b****e 的大作中提到】

: 货币汇率就是一个游戏。
: 商业社会的最重要的规则就是成本，你的成本越低，你就越是能卖，你就能赚钱。赚了
: 钱就能生存。生存了以后，一切什么朝阳产业等上层建筑都好办。相反，成本越高，就
: 越不能卖，就赚不了钱，就没法生存。另一方面，生意好了，聪明钱都会来投资设厂，
: 国内的生产就能起来，更有利于生存赚钱。
: 货币贬值的最重要效果就是成本降低。于是你就能从世界人民手中赚钱。如果把一个国
: 家想成是一个大家族，一个大家族如果能生产产品让其他人买了，自己的现金流是正的
: 没什么不好的。想致富，自己的运转当然重要，但是最重要的还是赚别人的钱。出口型
: 经济是有弊病，比如稳定性差等等，但是比起寅吃卯粮的进口型经济还是要好得多。美
: 国现在最根深蒂固的问题就是寅吃卯粮的问题。

b*e2009-01-02 08:01

40 楼

谢谢
我很赞成您的观点，我确实有偏的地方
但是，现在短期的问题是
人民币一旦大幅增值，日本就是我们的前车之鉴
所以我之前的一个帖子里的观点是人民币的汇率不会变化太大

【在 d*****z 的大作中提到】

: 你对汇率的认识有点偏颇。
: 货币兑换是有成本的。在一个理想的经济世界，根本不应该有多种货币的存在。最近似
: 理想的世界应该是所有货币可以完全自由浮动。现实世界中汇率肯定不是完全自由的，
: 不但中国这样的半管治国家，就是在名义上的自由兑换国家也要受政府的控制和影响。
: 但最终还是经济规律起作用。要靠人为的超出自然范围的贬值促进出口不但会产生负面
: 效果，在长期也不可能维持在稳定状态，只能是事与愿违。
: 将汇率维持在过分低估的水平，出口虽然会相当大幅地增加，进口却会萎缩。持续外贸
: 不平衡对一个不拥有世界通用货币的自由兑换国家，必然有越来越大的币值调整压力，
: 央行很难有足够的资源长期对抗这种压力，最终会放弃努力。美国是唯一的例外。它有
: 理论上是无限的资源，即可以自由发放美元，只要对美元世界货币的信心不变。对顺差

u*d2009-01-02 08:01

41 楼

1, The No.1 priority in China had been and will always be job creation for a long
time (one generation or two).
2, if RMB continues to appreciate (or just stay at current level), wouldn't
you agree that 80% world market share of consumer goods exports can easily
dwindle to 70%, 60% or even 50%? What we can make in China can be easily
replaced by products made by other third world countries.
3, China is in serious trouble. Export is shut down. Real estate market is
dying for sure. Government is t

【在 d*****z 的大作中提到】

: 你对汇率的认识有点偏颇。
: 货币兑换是有成本的。在一个理想的经济世界，根本不应该有多种货币的存在。最近似
: 理想的世界应该是所有货币可以完全自由浮动。现实世界中汇率肯定不是完全自由的，
: 不但中国这样的半管治国家，就是在名义上的自由兑换国家也要受政府的控制和影响。
: 但最终还是经济规律起作用。要靠人为的超出自然范围的贬值促进出口不但会产生负面
: 效果，在长期也不可能维持在稳定状态，只能是事与愿违。
: 将汇率维持在过分低估的水平，出口虽然会相当大幅地增加，进口却会萎缩。持续外贸
: 不平衡对一个不拥有世界通用货币的自由兑换国家，必然有越来越大的币值调整压力，
: 央行很难有足够的资源长期对抗这种压力，最终会放弃努力。美国是唯一的例外。它有
: 理论上是无限的资源，即可以自由发放美元，只要对美元世界货币的信心不变。对顺差

m*u2009-01-02 08:01

42 楼

I think the best investments is companies/business does not heavily rely on
goverment policies (including tax) and regulations, with an exception for
China state owned monoploies (those Chinese goverment will protect under all
circumstances). Otherwise, I like Sees Candy type of business.

for
the

【在 s********z 的大作中提到】

: Thanks for the inputs, but i have disagree with you on a few points.
: First of all, tax may be secondary to profit for short term speculation, for
: the long term investment, tax is the biggest cost.
: Secondly, I do not have control over the government regulation, so if they
: don't impose tax now, it works great for me. By the same token, will the
: high likelihood of Obama imposing high tax prevent you from investing?
: Thirdly, as for your real estate analogy, it makes sense, but tax isn't the
: only re

d*z2009-01-02 08:01

43 楼

While anything is possible. But if Chinese government really did what you
recommended (sharp devaluation of RMB), it would be a very unwise move. It
will not only do more harm than good economically in the long run, but also
cause potilical crisis almost for sure. It will save nobody finally.
If we are losing market share on cloth manufacturing to countries with lower
labor cost, there is nothing you can do unless you want to let China go back
to the earlier cheapest labor age (worker earning 10

【在 u****d 的大作中提到】

: 1, The No.1 priority in China had been and will always be job creation for a long
: time (one generation or two).
: 2, if RMB continues to appreciate (or just stay at current level), wouldn't
: you agree that 80% world market share of consumer goods exports can easily
: dwindle to 70%, 60% or even 50%? What we can make in China can be easily
: replaced by products made by other third world countries.
: 3, China is in serious trouble. Export is shut down. Real estate market is
: dying for sure. Government is t

s*n2009-01-02 08:01

44 楼

The question is:
Is it really good for China to maintain an 80% world market share of
consumer good export? If what "Made In China" can be so easily
replaced by other third world countries, maybe we should let them
take a part over.
The statement "Real estate market is dying for sure" actually is not
so sure. Having a bubble in it doesn't necessarily mean it will fall
into a painful dead. At very least, it is in a much much better shape
than US real estate market.
I don't have any data about the

【在 u****d 的大作中提到】

: 1, The No.1 priority in China had been and will always be job creation for a long
: time (one generation or two).
: 2, if RMB continues to appreciate (or just stay at current level), wouldn't
: you agree that 80% world market share of consumer goods exports can easily
: dwindle to 70%, 60% or even 50%? What we can make in China can be easily
: replaced by products made by other third world countries.
: 3, China is in serious trouble. Export is shut down. Real estate market is
: dying for sure. Government is t

u*d2009-01-02 08:01

45 楼

if you don't care about the impact of the unemployment as a result of the loss
of the market share, then you probably want to try harder to understand
China.
China's real estate market has all the mess that US has, and more. Even
before 2006 (long before the peak), I was told by some bank insiders that
many of the documented loans were liar loans. Otherwise, do you believe
there would be so many people who can afford those shabby apartments priced
above RMB 1M or 2M, or even 3?. Don't listen to

【在 s********n 的大作中提到】

: The question is:
: Is it really good for China to maintain an 80% world market share of
: consumer good export? If what "Made In China" can be so easily
: replaced by other third world countries, maybe we should let them
: take a part over.
: The statement "Real estate market is dying for sure" actually is not
: so sure. Having a bubble in it doesn't necessarily mean it will fall
: into a painful dead. At very least, it is in a much much better shape
: than US real estate market.
: I don't have any data about the

s*n2009-01-02 08:01

46 楼

I think we should clarify if we are discussing long-term solution
or short-term solution. I surely understand right now the impact of
unemployment in China as a result of lossing market share, and
that's exactly the problem we must solve in long-term. This is not
sustainable --- you cannot put your nation stability on productivity
that other countries can easily take over. However, in short-term,
our society cannot afford sharp-reduce in market share. That's why
the government is forced to make

【在 u****d 的大作中提到】

: if you don't care about the impact of the unemployment as a result of the loss
: of the market share, then you probably want to try harder to understand
: China.
: China's real estate market has all the mess that US has, and more. Even
: before 2006 (long before the peak), I was told by some bank insiders that
: many of the documented loans were liar loans. Otherwise, do you believe
: there would be so many people who can afford those shabby apartments priced
: above RMB 1M or 2M, or even 3?. Don't listen to

n*n2009-01-02 08:01

47 楼

不错。不知道怎么挑股票的话，买指数。

看。

【在 s********z 的大作中提到】

: 我在想把钱转到国内做长期投资，有以下几个理由，不知道想的对不对，大家帮我看看。
: 1 国内对于投资所得不征税，但是在美国至少是15%
: 2 人民币自身还有升值的空间，obama肯定是要使劲印钱，美国还得贬值
: 3 可以保护你的资产，假设你在美国有一个车祸，large medical bill，之类的，如果
: 你的财产在国内，不就被保护住了？
: 4 毕竟中国是发展中国家，还有不少发展的空间，所以理论上股票上升的空间比较大。
: 当然坏处是，不太容易liquidate，然后国内市场比较volatile。
: 不知道大家能不能帮我分析一下？
: 多谢