加拿大父子在赴美航班上观看911视频被赶下飞机 - 未名空间MITBBS历史存档

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加拿大父子在赴美航班上观看911视频被赶下飞机

加拿大父子在赴美航班上观看911视频被赶下飞机# Joke - 肚皮舞运动

p*e2010-07-23 07:07

1 楼

quick conclusion:
there are 52k 485 demand generated in Dec and Jan.
quick assumption: # of PD current but not submit in Dec and Jan == # of
485
submitted are not in EB2IC
there are 52k demands before Jan 2009 for EB2IC.
40k annual supply, and 20k SO, 20k row, and some 485 consumed in Oct and
Nov
, Cut off day will stop around 07/2008 this summer
**********************
ok, according to last year
we have 30k SO from eb2 ROW and eb1
So they used 80k-30k=50k for 12 months
50k/12= 4.2k per month for Eb1 and EB2row, 2 months is 8.4k
now we have 52k in Dec and Jan, assume 1/3 of PD 2008 can't submit their
485
in Jan, which is 9.6k.
those number are close. the problem is that how many 485 are for FB?

g*w2010-07-23 07:07

2 楼

美国人这么迷信？
＝＝＝＝
无语！加拿大父子在赴美航班上观看911视频被赶下飞机
据印度亚洲通讯社（IANS）7月23日报道，一对加拿大父子由于在登机后观看911恐
怖袭击视频，被赶出了飞往美国的航班。
据加拿大航空公司发言人介绍，这对父子在多伦多皮尔逊国际机场（Pearson
International Airport）登机，本欲乘坐加航航班飞往美国佛罗里达州的奥兰多市。
但是在登机后，其他乘客发现父子二人在通过随身携带的视频播放器观看世贸中心 911
恐怖袭击的视频，“乘客和乘务人员都很担忧”，于是一名乘务人员上前与这名父亲攀
谈，这名父亲此时曾试图掩盖视频。随后，这对父子在飞机起飞前被带离了航班。在接
受机场安全部门的问询后，他们终于洗脱了嫌疑。
机场安全人员说：“他们（这对父子）将改乘下一个航班”，并表示他们的行为没
有构成犯罪。
自从去年圣诞节一与基地组织有关的尼日利亚人曾试图炸毁一架美国航班后，加拿
大政府就对飞往美国的航班采取了严格的安全措施。

a*a2010-07-23 07:07

3 楼

扫出来的　４８５是混在一起的，当然，大部分是　EB2CI,所以估计能再前进几个月。

c*o2010-07-23 07:07

4 楼

哈哈。。。

911

【在 g******w 的大作中提到】

: 美国人这么迷信？
: ＝＝＝＝
: 无语！加拿大父子在赴美航班上观看911视频被赶下飞机
: 据印度亚洲通讯社（IANS）7月23日报道，一对加拿大父子由于在登机后观看911恐
: 怖袭击视频，被赶出了飞往美国的航班。
: 据加拿大航空公司发言人介绍，这对父子在多伦多皮尔逊国际机场（Pearson
: International Airport）登机，本欲乘坐加航航班飞往美国佛罗里达州的奥兰多市。
: 但是在登机后，其他乘客发现父子二人在通过随身携带的视频播放器观看世贸中心 911
: 恐怖袭击的视频，“乘客和乘务人员都很担忧”，于是一名乘务人员上前与这名父亲攀
: 谈，这名父亲此时曾试图掩盖视频。随后，这对父子在飞机起飞前被带离了航班。在接

p*e2010-07-23 07:07

5 楼

my assumption:
quick assumption: # of PD current but not submit in Dec and Jan == # of 485
submitted are not in EB2IC
many PD current can't submit in Dec and Jan due to the delay of lawyers or
other reasons. PD 08 may submit in Feb or March

【在 a***a 的大作中提到】

: 扫出来的　４８５是混在一起的，当然，大部分是　EB2CI,所以估计能再前进几个月。

B*g2010-07-23 07:07

6 楼

52k are all EB2?

485
Nov

【在 p***e 的大作中提到】

: quick conclusion:
: there are 52k 485 demand generated in Dec and Jan.
: quick assumption: # of PD current but not submit in Dec and Jan == # of
: 485
: submitted are not in EB2IC
: there are 52k demands before Jan 2009 for EB2IC.
: 40k annual supply, and 20k SO, 20k row, and some 485 consumed in Oct and
: Nov
: , Cut off day will stop around 07/2008 this summer
: **********************

a*a2010-07-23 07:07

7 楼

他是估算，看样子大概１０月前最多能批到０８年１２月底。
不过要是奥傻不退排期，大家就一个槽里抢食了，看运气了。

【在 B*****g 的大作中提到】

: 52k are all EB2?
:
: 485
: Nov

p*e2010-07-23 07:07

8 楼

no, but not all 08PD submitted their 485 in Feb.....

【在 B*****g 的大作中提到】

: 52k are all EB2?
:
: 485
: Nov

s*t2010-07-23 07:07

9 楼

EB1 demand is not the same as those unlucky Jan/Feb filers.
EB1 and NIW demand is MUCH MUCH MUCH higher....

【在 p***e 的大作中提到】

: no, but not all 08PD submitted their 485 in Feb.....

w*r2010-07-23 07:07

10 楼

大致这么算算，应该到2008年10——12月的配额就差不多了吧？不过就目前情况来说，
排期不倒退，显然是拼人品了。好像去年十一月和十月的RD还有一些人没批。十二月有
没批的，一月的就有开始批的了。显然排期跃进范围太大，在这个范围里面，运气成分
占比就很大了。前后能有一年的落差。

p*e2010-07-23 07:07

11 楼

ok, according to last year
we have 30k SO from eb2 ROW and eb1
So they used 80k-30k=50k for 12 months
50k/12= 4.2k per month for Eb1 and EB2row, 2 months is 8.4k
now we have 52k in Dec and Jan, assume 1/3 of PD 2008 can't submit their 485
in Jan, which is 9.6k.
those number are close. the problem is that how many 485 are for FB?

【在 s******t 的大作中提到】

: EB1 demand is not the same as those unlucky Jan/Feb filers.
: EB1 and NIW demand is MUCH MUCH MUCH higher....

a*a2010-07-23 07:07

12 楼

据说　FB 不扔到　NSC 和　TSC.
不是很清楚。

485

【在 p***e 的大作中提到】

: ok, according to last year
: we have 30k SO from eb2 ROW and eb1
: So they used 80k-30k=50k for 12 months
: 50k/12= 4.2k per month for Eb1 and EB2row, 2 months is 8.4k
: now we have 52k in Dec and Jan, assume 1/3 of PD 2008 can't submit their 485
: in Jan, which is 9.6k.
: those number are close. the problem is that how many 485 are for FB?

B*g2010-07-23 07:07

13 楼

没几个没脚的

【在 p***e 的大作中提到】

: no, but not all 08PD submitted their 485 in Feb.....

p*e2010-07-23 07:07

14 楼

so 52k is about the number of PD before 2009.

【在 a***a 的大作中提到】

: 据说　FB 不扔到　NSC 和　TSC.
: 不是很清楚。
:
: 485

p*e2010-07-23 07:07

15 楼

and like last year, EB2IC has 20k so + own 8k numbers
EB2CI only has 28k supply this year.
it needs at least two years to clear PD before 2009..........

s*t2010-07-23 07:07

16 楼

EB45 goes to EB1 to SO as well. They have about 10k. So EB1 and EB2ROW
filings should be around 5k per month.
I don't think 1/3 of Jan filers will miss 485 by the end of Jan. 10% at most
How about refugees 485? I remember it is a huge number.

485

【在 p***e 的大作中提到】

p*e2010-07-23 07:07

17 楼

ok, let us assume the best case:
all 08 PD submitted their 485 before Feb
Total 485 submission: 52k
Eb2row and Eb1 monthly use caculation
we have 30k SO from eb2 ROW and eb1
So they used 80k-30k=50k for 12 months
50k/12= 4.2k per month for Eb1 and EB2row, 2 months is 8.4k
therefore, EB2IC before 2009 submitted in Dec and Jan has 52k-8.4k=43k
It should be more than 43k since not all NOV submitted 485 got approved.
assume we have 25k SO for EB2IC this year, our own 8k supply. total supply
is 32k. We already use more than 15k+ for Oct and Nov. So we only have 17k
supply left this year. But we have 43k demand before PD 2009.
In conclusion, 17k supply left this year, 43k demand before PD 2009. And
this is the best case.

【在 B*****g 的大作中提到】

: 没几个没脚的

B*g2010-07-23 07:07

18 楼

没有其他类型的485交到TSC、NSC了吗？

【在 p***e 的大作中提到】

: ok, let us assume the best case:
: all 08 PD submitted their 485 before Feb
: Total 485 submission: 52k
: Eb2row and Eb1 monthly use caculation
: we have 30k SO from eb2 ROW and eb1
: So they used 80k-30k=50k for 12 months
: 50k/12= 4.2k per month for Eb1 and EB2row, 2 months is 8.4k
: therefore, EB2IC before 2009 submitted in Dec and Jan has 52k-8.4k=43k
: It should be more than 43k since not all NOV submitted 485 got approved.
: assume we have 25k SO for EB2IC this year, our own 8k supply. total supply

s*t2010-07-23 07:07

19 楼

He should resign.... lol

【在 B*****g 的大作中提到】

: 没有其他类型的485交到TSC、NSC了吗？

a*a2010-07-23 07:07

20 楼

这个不出力就别瞎起哄了，人家至少在算呢。

【在 s******t 的大作中提到】

: He should resign.... lol

s*t2010-07-23 07:07

21 楼

ft, I was calculating and arguing with him ALL THE TIME. What did you do by
the way?

【在 a***a 的大作中提到】

: 这个不出力就别瞎起哄了，人家至少在算呢。